2026年02月10日 证券研究报告 | 哔哩哔哩（9626.HK)深度 跨越盈利拐点，A I应用与游戏品类扩张加速商业化价值释放 公司研究 · 深度研究 传媒 · 传媒 投资评级：优于大市（维持评级） 财务越过盈亏平衡线，利润进入加速释放期。1）财务数据的质变是B站重要的拐点时刻。受惠于高毛利广告及游戏业务占比的提升，公司毛利率与净利率自2023年起持续改善， 成功在2024年Q3实现单季利润转正，并预计在2025年实现全年扭亏为盈，开启利润加速释放期 ；2）B站独特的PUGV生态使其在成本端具备天然优势：2024年内容成本仅占营收 的10%，远低于传统长视频平台。同时营销费用率已降至16%，表明平台已脱离"烧钱换增长"阶段，依靠内生社区动力即可实现用户的长效留存 ；3）在现金流方面，公司经营 性现金流于2023年转正，2025年前三季度进一步增长至53.08亿元，健康的自身造血能力结合持续优化的治理结构，正推动B站从流量平台向高利润商业体演进。 投资逻辑：短期具备安全边际，长线成长空间持续打开；1）我们维持盈利预测，维持"优于大市"评级。预计公司2025/26/27年经调后净利润分别为25.48/33.6 ...

机构认为，短期市场或仍维持板块轮动、震荡上行走势。 【财经日历】 中国1月CPI、PPI 中芯国际举行2025年第四季度业绩说明会 财报发布：网易 ►►央行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告： 海南首批5家日用消费品免税店正式开业 美国1月失业率、1月季调后非农就业人口 欧佩克公布月度原油市场报告 EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告 -继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策； -加强利率政策执行和监督，促进社会综合融资成本低位运行； -完善房地产金融基础性制度，助力构建房地产发展新模式； -持续改革完善贷款市场报价利率（LPR）； -支持更多民营科技型企业、民营股权投资机构发债融资； -把握好利率、汇率内外均衡，引导短期货币市场利率更好围绕央行政策利率平稳运行； -引导更多金融资源支持提振和扩大服务消费； -进一步优化MPA框架，畅通货币政策执行和传导； -促进资本市场平稳运行； -未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作； ►►国家发展改革委等部门发布加快招标投标领域人工智能推广应用的实施意见。其中指出，围绕招标投标交易全过程和管理重点环节，按照政府引导、多 方参与、场景牵引、安全可控的原则，积极稳妥推进人工智能在招标投标领 ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market showed significant divergence, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.1% to a record closing high of 50,188.14 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.33% and 0.59% respectively, primarily due to a sell-off in technology stocks and weak economic data [1][2]. Technology Sector - Major technology stocks faced a sell-off, with the Wande Technology Seven Giants Index declining by 0.59%. Key players like Intel, Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft saw widespread losses, with Intel dropping 6.19% due to poor earnings expectations. Storage-related stocks such as Micron Technology and Western Digital also fell over 3%, reflecting market concerns about AI investment returns amid high capital expenditures [3][4][6]. - Alphabet, Google's parent company, raised nearly $32 billion in bonds, setting a record for tech companies, but concerns about aggressive investments in AI continue to grow [4]. Economic Data - U.S. retail sales data for December unexpectedly stagnated, showing no growth and falling short of the expected 0.4% increase, indicating a significant slowdown in consumer momentum at year-end. Core retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, also showed zero growth, with declines in discretionary spending categories like clothing and furniture [11]. - The employment cost index's growth rate slowed to 0.7%, leading to increased market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in mid-year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to 49.3% [11]. Chinese Stocks - In contrast to the tech sector's downturn, Chinese stocks performed well, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising for the fourth consecutive day by 0.87%. Companies like Alibaba, Li Auto, and Tencent Music saw gains exceeding 2%, attributed to improved domestic policy expectations and better-than-expected earnings from some firms [7][8].

美东时间周二，三大指数涨跌不一，标普500指数和纳指均录得下跌，道指小幅上涨，再创收盘历史新高。 道指盘中一度录得连续第三个历史新高，此前已在上周五首次突破5万点大关。 （三大指数日内走势，来源：TradingView） 截至收盘，道琼斯指数涨0.10%，报50,188.14点；标普500指数跌0.33%，报6,941.81点；纳斯达克指数跌0.59%，报23,102.47点。 零售股周二明显承压，好市多下跌逾2%，沃尔玛下跌逾1%。 周二公布的最新零售销售数据显示，美国12月消费者支出环比持平，低于预期的增长0.4%。而11月零售销售曾增长0.6%。 Ameriprise Financial首席市场策略师Anthony Saglimbene表示："当前中低收入消费者承压的另一关键因素，是他们对就业环境的感受，而我们知道他们的信 心正在变得更加不确定。如果1月就业增长不及预期，可能会对市场这种'普涨'主题造成一定冲击。" 金融股周二同样承压，PL Financial暴跌8.3%，嘉信理财下跌7.4%，摩根士丹利跌逾2%。 科技平台Altruist推出了一款基于人工智能（AI）的税务规划工具，引发市场对AI冲击 ...

Core Insights - The launch of Seedance 2.0 by ByteDance has generated significant attention and discussions regarding the impact of AI on the film and entertainment industry [1][2] - The model's realistic video generation capabilities have exceeded expectations, leading to a surge in interest from content creators and a rise in related sectors such as film and gaming [2][3] Group 1: Product and Market Impact - Seedance 2.0 has gained recognition for its ability to produce predictable and high-quality results, making it easier for content creators to achieve desired outcomes [2] - The competition between ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 and Kuaishou's new version "Keling 3.0" highlights the rapid evolution of AI video models, with both companies pushing the boundaries of video production technology [2] - The current year is recognized as a pivotal moment for AI application deployment, with a strong demand for robust and stable domestic AI video generation models [2] Group 2: Industry Concerns and Challenges - The rise of Seedance 2.0 has sparked discussions about the ethical implications of AI usage, particularly concerning issues of copyright, privacy, and the potential for deepfakes [4][5][6] - Concerns have been raised about the risks associated with realistic AI-generated content, including the potential for misuse and the erosion of trust due to the proliferation of convincing fake videos [6] - The industry faces a critical juncture where the advancement of technology outpaces the establishment of regulatory frameworks, necessitating urgent attention to copyright protection, data usage, and content safety [6]

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between the Central Radio and Television Station and Bilibili marks the first time that UP creators will participate in the Spring Festival Gala, aiming to attract a younger audience [2] Group 1: Collaboration Details - The Spring Festival Gala will feature UP creators from Bilibili, with an average age of under 30, representing various fields such as knowledge dissemination, entertainment, and youth culture [2] - The involvement of Bilibili UP creators is expected to bring more youthful content to the Gala, enhancing its appeal to younger generations [2] Group 2: Industry Insights - According to Bao Ran, a member of the Broadcasting and Television Network Audio-Visual Professional Committee, Bilibili UP creators are characterized by their youth, high education levels, and deep engagement in their areas of interest [2] - The collaboration is seen as a strategic move by the Spring Festival Gala to connect with younger audiences, leveraging the understanding that UP creators have of youth culture [2]

在试水两年半之后，抖音的内容付费似乎要告一段落了。日前有爆料显示，抖音平台将对内容变现模式 进行重大调整，自2026年2月5日起正式停止付费合集的相关功能与服务，原"合集付费配置"功能全面下 线，所有已创建的付费合集将统一转为免费合集，用户无需购买即可正常观看。 具体来说，就是抖音或将彻底关闭付费合集的变现经营能力，已购买相关付费合集的用户，可通过抖音 客户端下载保存对应内容，创作者也可通过合集管理功能对已转为免费的合集进行删除等操作。针对因 功能调整导致的用户退款需求，据称抖音方面明确相关退款将由平台全额承担，以保障付费用户的权益 不受损失。 在关闭付费合集的同时，抖音也为创作者提供了替代选项。据悉，抖音将同步推出合集升级计划，以投 稿数量、内容质量、播放效果等多维度数据为核心评估指标，定向为优质创作者提供创作激励，来替代 原有的付费分成模式，引导创作者转向基于内容流量与平台补贴的变现路径。 简而言之，兜兜转转一圈后，抖音创作者的内容变现路径又回到了单一的流量模式。那么问题就来了， 抖音探索付费短视频为何短短两年半时间就终止了呢？其实要想回答这个问题，先得来看看抖音当初开 放短视频付费的缘由。 此前在202 ...

Core Insights - The commercial landscape of the 2026 Spring Festival Gala is becoming clearer, with major players in sponsorship and collaboration identified, highlighting the event's significance as a cultural and emotional touchstone for audiences across demographics and regions [1][2] Group 1: Changes in Sponsorship Dynamics - Unlike previous years, the 2026 Spring Festival Gala is witnessing a structural shift in commercial forces, with AI applications, technology platforms, and content-based social platforms emerging as the most aggressive players in the sponsorship landscape [2] - Traditional sponsors such as liquor brands and household appliances remain prominent, but AI products and platforms are increasingly appearing, indicating a blend of old and new sponsorship strategies [3][4] - AI applications are not just seeking exposure but are aiming for user education and product recognition during a peak attention period, marking a strategic shift in how brands engage with audiences [5][11] Group 2: Role of Major Platforms - CCTV's Spring Festival Gala remains a strategic high ground for brands, with significant partnerships formed, such as Bilibili becoming the exclusive bullet screen video platform, enhancing interactive experiences [8] - Other platforms like Xiaohongshu and Douyin are also integrating the Spring Festival into their ecosystems, transforming the event into a social experience rather than just a viewing event [9][10] - The collaboration with ByteDance's Volcano Engine as the exclusive AI cloud partner signifies a focus on technical capabilities and real-time interaction, positioning the Spring Festival as a testing ground for AI applications [10] Group 3: AI as a Central Theme - The 2026 Spring Festival is set to be a pivotal year for consumer-level AI, with significant investments in cash red envelopes from companies like Baidu and Tencent, indicating a shift in marketing logic from mere participation to active engagement [12][13][15] - The integration of traditional content with cutting-edge technology aims to reshape how audiences interact with the Spring Festival, moving from passive consumption to active participation [14][19] - The event serves as a critical platform for demonstrating the capabilities of AI applications across various scenarios, reinforcing the importance of the Spring Festival as a comprehensive engagement opportunity for brands [15][18]

Group 1 - Citigroup's long position in Bilibili Inc. increased from 5.43% to 5.52% as of February 4, 2026 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company is crossing the profitability inflection point, with accelerated commercialization of AI applications and game category expansion [2] - Bilibili has successfully transformed from a niche community platform to a leading PUGC video platform, achieving historical highs in MAU and DAU, with 376 million and 117 million respectively as of Q3 2025 [4][23] - The business structure is optimized with dual drivers of advertising and gaming, contributing to revenue elasticity [5] - Financial performance has improved significantly, with the company achieving positive net profit in Q3 2024 and expected to turn profitable for the full year 2025 [6] Company Overview - Bilibili, established in 2009, has evolved into the largest PUGC video platform in China, characterized by a high barrier to entry and strong user engagement [4][16] - The platform has successfully expanded its user demographic, with the average user age increasing from 21 in 2018 to 26 currently, tapping into the Z+ generation [4] Business Structure - The company's revenue sources include value-added services, advertising, gaming, and IP derivatives, with value-added services being the largest revenue contributor [5][40] - Advertising revenue grew by 21% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, significantly outperforming the industry average [5][52] - The gaming segment has seen a resurgence with the launch of the popular SLG mobile game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World," contributing to a substantial increase in gaming revenue [5][55] Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown consistent growth, with total revenue expected to reach 26.83 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 19% year-on-year increase [70] - The gross margin and net margin have been improving since 2023, with the company achieving a quarterly profit for the first time in Q3 2024 [6][70] - Operating cash flow turned positive in 2023, indicating a healthy self-sustaining business model [6][75] Investment Logic - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting adjusted net profits of 2.548 billion, 3.366 billion, and 4.576 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 36, 27, and 23 [7] - The potential for growth in gaming and advertising is being enhanced by AI technology and a comprehensive content strategy, with significant upside potential in advertising revenue [7][100]