Core Insights - In 2025, Chengdu recorded a historical high of 150 transactions for new homes priced over 20 million, representing only about 0.2% of the city's total transactions, highlighting a niche market with significant attention due to high prices [1][12] - The beginning of 2026 has seen a surge in high-end property transactions, with over 44 units sold in less than a month, indicating strong demand in this segment [3][4] Market Performance - The projects contributing to the high-end market include Jianfa Haiyao and Beichen S1, with the latter achieving a record transaction price of approximately 54.08 million for a single unit [5][9] - The Financial City area has emerged as the best-performing segment for properties priced over 20 million, accounting for about 95% of the total transactions in this category [8] Buyer Demographics - A significant portion of buyers in the 20 million+ segment are under 45 years old, with this age group making up nearly 85% of the purchasers, indicating a trend towards younger buyers [12] Product Quality and Market Dynamics - The high-end market is supported by a shift in product offerings, moving from basic housing to lifestyle-oriented developments, which cater to the evolving needs of high-net-worth individuals [12] - Despite a 7.8% year-on-year decline in the overall new housing market, Chengdu maintained the highest sales volume and area in the country, providing a stable foundation for the luxury segment [12][14] Future Outlook - The 2026 market is expected to continue its upward trend, with multiple new projects set to launch, potentially leading to record supply levels in the 20 million+ category [16][17] - The success of the high-end market will depend on the diversity of upcoming projects and their ability to resonate with affluent buyers [16]

27 January 2026 | 6:56AM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY WEEKLY WRAP Week 4 Wrap - Transactions improved across markets but leading indicators showed slowing signs Key highlights for the week: Central level: the MNR and MOHURD jointly released new measures to further support urban renewal with enhanced execution flexibility. Key points include: 1) more flexible land transition policies, whereby the original 5-year fixed transition period, during which land use and planning conditions could not be altered ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform" [3] Core Insights - New home transaction area has turned negative on a month-on-month basis, with a year-on-year decline expanding [3][13] - Second-hand home transaction area has increased month-on-month and turned positive year-on-year [3][13] - New home inventory area has decreased both month-on-month and year-on-year, while the de-stocking cycle has increased [3][13] Summary by Sections 1. New Home Market Tracking - In the week of January 17-23, 2026, new home transaction volume in 40 cities was 16,000 units, down 16.2% month-on-month and down 32.2% year-on-year [14][20] - The new home transaction area was 151.5 million square meters, down 9.7% month-on-month and down 39.6% year-on-year [22][39] - Transaction volume and area for first, second, third, and fourth-tier cities showed varying declines [14][19] 2. Second-Hand Home Market Tracking - In 18 cities, second-hand home transaction volume was 20,000 units, up 2.9% month-on-month and up 9.1% year-on-year [49][51] - The transaction area was 188.2 million square meters, up 4.4% month-on-month and up 18.1% year-on-year [51][52] - First, second, third, and fourth-tier cities exhibited different growth rates in transaction volume and area [45][49] 3. Inventory Situation - New home inventory in 12 cities was 1.373 million units, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.6% [35][38] - The de-stocking cycle for new home inventory was 17.7 months, increasing month-on-month and year-on-year [27][38] - Inventory levels and de-stocking cycles varied across city tiers [26][27] 4. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area in 100 cities was 1,044.9 million square meters, down 3.1% month-on-month but up 0.4% year-on-year [59][60] - Total land transaction value was 16.33 billion yuan, down 1.5% month-on-month and down 15.5% year-on-year [10][65] - The average land price per square meter was 1,562.8 yuan, up 1.7% month-on-month but down 15.8% year-on-year [10][61] 5. Policy Insights - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued measures to support urban renewal [3] - Emphasis on stabilizing housing prices and improving market confidence through various policy measures [3][11]

文/青岛日报李鹏飞 2021-2025年，中国房地产行业迎来深度调整的"阵痛期"，青岛楼市在这一轮周期中，完成了一场从"外来房企主导"到"本土房企领跑"的颠覆性变革。 数据显示，数年间，青岛头部房企阵营彻底洗牌，本土三强海信、君一、青特凭借精准的核心板块布局与稳健的经营策略实现逆势飙升，而外来房企则分化 加剧，仅有中海、金茂、保利等少数企业风采依旧，龙湖、绿城、越秀等老牌房企则面临在青业绩与拿地双收缩的压力。 这场变革的背后，是楼市从"规模竞赛"转向"价值深耕"的必然趋势，也为房企未来发展划定了清晰的生存法则。 本土开发商强势逆袭 改写市场话语权 四五年前，青岛楼市的主角还是保利、华润、龙湖等外来头部房企，本土房企虽有一席之地，但始终难以撼动外来房企的主导地位。谁也未曾想到，短短几 年间，本土房企竟以"黑马"姿态完成弯道超车，彻底改写市场格局。 作为本土房企的"领头羊"，海信地产的表现堪称惊艳。青岛锐理数据统计，2021年，海信以80亿元销售额位居头部房企前列，到2023年，其销售额突破百亿 大关，2025年更是飙升至139.81亿元，登顶青岛房企销售额榜首。这一成绩的背后，是海信对核心板块的极致深耕——张村 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan's Lingshui County has become the first city to announce its 2026 state-owned land supply plan, indicating a shift in land supply dynamics in the region [2] Land Supply Plan Summary - In 2026, Lingshui plans to supply 49 plots of state-owned land, totaling approximately 146.63 hectares (about 2,199.48 acres), which is an increase of 9 plots compared to 2025, but the total area has decreased by approximately 452.65 acres, a reduction of about 17.1% [2][3] - The breakdown of land use includes: - Residential land: 48.92 hectares (about 733.79 acres) - Public management and service land: 241.05 acres - Industrial and storage land: 653.48 acres - Transportation land: 379.64 acres - Commercial service land: 108.52 acres - Public facilities land: 66.44 acres - Green space and open space: 6.17 acres - Special land: 10.38 acres [2][3] Residential Land Supply Insights - The residential land supply for 2026 mainly consists of two categories: market-oriented commodity housing (385.62 acres) and land for urban renewal projects (348.16 acres), with no plans for affordable housing land for the third consecutive year [4][11] - The residential land is concentrated in popular areas of Lingshui's real estate market, including: - Yelin Town: 6 plots, approximately 348.17 acres - Li'an Town: 4 plots, approximately 287.31 acres - Guangpo Town: 2 plots, approximately 49 acres - Yingzhou Town: 1 plot, approximately 49.31 acres [4][6] Market Demand and Sales Performance - Lingshui's real estate market has shown strong demand, with housing sales area increasing for six consecutive years, breaking the trend of the national real estate market adjustment [6][7] - In 2025, the housing sales area in Lingshui grew by approximately 30% year-on-year, reaching over 90,000 square meters, marking a significant recovery in the local market [7][11] - Major real estate companies, including Country Garden and Lingshui Development Group, have established key projects in Lingshui, contributing to the market's stability and growth [7][8] Future Outlook - Despite the lack of affordable housing land supply, there are sufficient ongoing and planned affordable housing projects, which are expected to support the market [11] - The acceleration of residential land supply is anticipated to lead to the introduction of high-quality projects in the coming years, potentially setting new benchmarks in the Lingshui market [11]

下面一张图看清楚 来源：市场资讯 统计了一下，今年上海将有119个新盘解禁，那些曾需要高分摇号，"挤破头"才能入围的网红楼盘，如今到底是赚是赔？ （来源：楼市经典） 2026年，上海第一批五年限售新房迎来解禁。 | 板块 | 项目名称 | 开盘时间 | 备案均价 | 套数 | 认购人数 | 认购率 | 入围分 | 同小区/周边同档 | मधी सि | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (2021年) | (元/m2) | | | | | 次次新 | (元/m2) | | | | 万科天空之城五期 | 12月17日 | 28200 | 152 | 488 | 308. 55% | 82. 88 | 万科天空之城二期 | 63834 | 10 | | | 蟠龙天地云庭 | 10月2日 | 61500 | 741 | 3082 | 416. 33% | 81. 23 | 蟠龙天地一期 | 73852 | 10 | | | 虹桥悦澜 | 6月2日 | 61300 | 161 | 394 | 2 ...

Group 1 - Zhu Wenkai was appointed as the new chairman of China Merchants Shekou in September 2025, succeeding Jiang Tiefeng, who has moved up to a vice president role at China Merchants Group [4] - Zhu Wenkai has a background in port operations and has held various positions within China Merchants, including roles in real estate development [3] - China Merchants Shekou reported a revenue of 89.766 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.07%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 3.99% to 2.497 billion yuan [4] Group 2 - The company experienced a significant decline in net cash flow from operating activities, which fell by 75.81% to 3.137 billion yuan, primarily due to reduced sales receipts from real estate projects [4] - Zhu Wenkai's tenure as chairman may be limited, as he is 59 years old and the retirement age for secondary unit leaders in state-owned enterprises is typically 60 [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call of Keshun Co., Ltd. Company Overview - **Company**: Keshun Co., Ltd. (科顺股份) - **Industry**: Waterproofing materials and construction materials Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increase Strategy**: Keshun plans to raise prices of its phenolic waterproof products by 5%-10% to counteract a 5-6% increase in raw material costs, expecting a 2% increase in gross margin by 2026 [2][6] - **Revenue Growth Projections**: The company anticipates a 10% revenue growth in 2026, amounting to approximately 600 million yuan. The civil construction sector (C-end retail) is expected to grow by 30% (around 300 million yuan), while overseas business is projected to grow by 50% (around 200 million yuan) [2][12] - **Tile Adhesive Business**: Keshun's tile adhesive revenue is expected to reach nearly 500 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 20%-30% anticipated for 2026. The company sees significant growth potential in the tile adhesive market over the next 3-5 years [2][17] - **Overseas Market Strategy**: The company plans to adopt a light asset operation model for its overseas business, establishing small factories in Malaysia, Central Asia, and the Middle East through joint ventures and leasing existing facilities [2][22] Financial Performance and Projections - **2025 Financials**: Keshun's overseas revenue is projected to be around 450 million yuan, with a gross margin of 32%-33% and a net profit margin of 7%-8% (excluding impairments) [2][24] - **Credit Impairment Management**: The company aims to limit credit impairment to within 100 million yuan in 2026, with a focus on preparing for potential bad debts in 2025 [4][28] - **Cash Flow Expectations**: Keshun expects positive operating cash flow in 2025, similar to the 300 million yuan range seen in 2024 [4][29] Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - **Market Demand for Tile Adhesives**: The tile adhesive market is expected to continue growing, with a market size of approximately 60-70 billion yuan. The industry is fragmented, with leading companies like Deko and Yuhong having sales of 2-4 billion yuan each [19][20] - **Price Competition**: There is a small price difference among leading brands, while significant differences exist between leading brands and smaller companies. Keshun plans to expand its market share through channel collaboration and acquisitions of local small manufacturers [20] Challenges and Risks - **Customer Acceptance of Price Increases**: Some customers, particularly in the public construction sector, may resist price increases due to reduced business volume and intense competition [8][9] - **Implementation of Price Increases**: The company has successfully implemented price increases for its roll products, with a gradual realization of price adjustments expected to improve margins over time [10][11] Future Growth and Investment Plans - **Investment in New Materials**: Keshun is exploring high-end new materials in sectors like semiconductors and robotics to diversify its business and enhance resilience against market cycles [4][30] - **Convertible Bond Strategy**: The company aims to complete the conversion of all convertible bonds by 2026, targeting a market capitalization of around 10 billion yuan and a share price of approximately 9 yuan [4][32] - **Long-term Revenue Goals**: Keshun aims to return to a revenue scale of 10 billion yuan within 3-5 years, contingent on industry stabilization and recovery [34] Conclusion Keshun Co., Ltd. is strategically positioning itself for growth through price adjustments, expansion into overseas markets, and diversification into new materials. The company is focused on improving its financial health while navigating challenges in customer acceptance and market competition.

Summary of Conference Call on Real Estate Sector Industry Overview - The real estate sector has shown signs of improvement since early 2026, ranking 18th among 31 Shenwan industries, indicating a positive shift in market sentiment and liquidity [1][4] - Despite a 45% increase in the Shenzhen Foreign Real Estate Index, it still underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, suggesting potential for catch-up in undervalued segments [1][5] Key Insights and Arguments - **Market Performance**: The new housing market remains weak, with transaction volumes significantly down year-on-year, and a projected overall decline in transaction area for the year, although the rate of decline may slow [1][6] - **Policy Dependency**: The recovery of the new housing market is heavily reliant on policy support, such as easing measures in first-tier cities and adjustments to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) [1][7] - **Inventory Levels**: The inventory of unsold new homes in 70 cities is at a historical high, with varying de-stocking cycles across cities, indicating significant pressure on overall inventory [1][8] - **Land Market Trends**: The land market has seen a decline in transaction area and revenue, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and limiting new housing supply [1][9] Additional Important Points - **Second-Hand Housing Market**: The second-hand housing market has also experienced a decline in transaction volume, with expectations of price stability but potential for slight decreases due to increased listings and stagnant purchasing power [1][10] - **Policy Impact**: Current policies are insufficient for a substantial turnaround in the real estate market, with only minor measures being implemented [1][11][12] - **Investor Sentiment**: There are mixed expectations among investors regarding the real estate sector, with some anticipating a recovery in 2026 while others remain cautious due to poor new housing data [1][13] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Beike and developers such as Binhai Group and China Merchants Shekou are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of demand-side policies [1][14] - **Risks**: Ongoing declines in new housing sales and construction data pose risks to the sector, although the current market position still offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for investments [1][15]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry in China is undergoing a deep adjustment, with significant declines in investment, sales area, and sales revenue in 2025, indicating a challenging market environment [1][3][9]. Investment and Sales Data - In 2025, national real estate development investment reached 82,788 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.2% [1]. - The sales area of new commercial housing was 88,101 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, while the sales revenue was 83,937 billion yuan, reflecting a 12.6% decline [1][9]. - The construction area for real estate developers was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 10.0% year-on-year, with residential construction down 10.3% [3]. Construction Activity - New construction area was 58,770 million square meters, down 20.4%, with residential new construction area at 42,984 million square meters, a decline of 19.8% [4]. - The completion area was 60,348 million square meters, down 18.1%, with residential completions at 42,830 million square meters, a decrease of 20.2% [4]. Market Dynamics - The market is still in a "de-inventory" phase due to declining new home sales and significantly reduced land transactions over the past two years [5]. - Some central and state-owned enterprises are maintaining orderly construction activities, and there is still demand for well-located properties, which is boosting market confidence [6]. Financial Policies and Support - Local governments are enhancing "guarantee delivery" efforts, with recent financial policies aimed at stabilizing financing for projects on the "white list," which will support the delivery of homes [7]. Leading Companies - In 2025, ten real estate companies achieved sales exceeding 100 billion yuan, with four surpassing 200 billion yuan. These include major players like Poly Development, China Overseas Land & Investment, and Vanke [9]. - The top ten companies by investment are primarily state-owned enterprises, with significant investments from China Overseas, China Resources, Poly Development, and China Merchants Shekou, indicating a strategic positioning during market adjustments [9]. Market Trends - December 2025 showed signs of improvement, with new commercial housing sales area increasing by 39.87% month-on-month and sales revenue rising by 44.07% [10]. - The average price of new residential properties in first-tier cities saw a slight decrease, with Shanghai experiencing a minor increase, while other cities like Beijing and Guangzhou reported declines [10][11]. - The second-hand housing market is also seeing a shift, with increased transactions in second-hand homes as buyers seek more affordable options [12].