炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：晚点AI 没有谁赢得最终胜利，战争刚刚拉开序幕。 文丨高洪浩 贺乾明 管艺雯 编辑丨贺乾明 2 月 16 日，除夕夜。北京中关村，字节跳动所在的鼎好大厦灯火通明；西二旗，百度科技园的办公楼 依旧亮着整层白光；南方，杭州阿里巴巴西溪园区、深圳腾讯总部，同样没有像往年那样进入节日模 式。 这个马年春节，中国科技行业第一次大规模取消休假，掀起中国 AI 领域第一场有预谋、有目标、大规 模资源投入的正面战役。 我们在此前文章中提到，过去二十年，中国科技行业巨头几乎打遍了互联网所有关键战役——从电商、 生活服务，到长短视频、社交、游戏，再到移动支付与企业服务。 以前是局部战役，丢掉一张牌，游戏还能继续。这一次更像是 "中途岛战役"——全局战争的转折点， 一旦输掉，可能会输掉整个未来。 字节跳动投入超过 10 亿元，豆包深度参与央视春晚互动，发出数亿红包和礼品；阿里冠名四家地方卫 视春晚，配合旗下 AI 助手千问 app ，耗资 30 亿元进行春节推广；腾讯投入 10 亿元、百度投入 5 亿 元，为 AI 应用导流。 腾讯率先出手，阿里投入更 ...

届时，TikTok Shop将占据全球电商平台市场份额的14.6%，推动约1万亿美元的销售额。 近期，数字商务咨询公司Flywheel飞未发布的一份前瞻性报告在业界引发关注。报告预测，到2030年，TikTok Shop的中国母公司字节跳动有望跻身涵盖所有 品类的全球零售商前三强。 美国时尚媒体《女装日报》网站报道，TikTok Shop业务在全球增长迅速。 Flywheel Ventures首席执行官Deren Baker表示，TikTok Shop的价值不仅存在于品牌认知层面，也通过电商体现了规模化运作的优势，其光环效应更是可以使 平台上推广的产品品牌搜索量、产品页面访问量和销售速度出现可衡量的提升。 Flywheel还在同期发布的TikTok Shop白皮书中称："TikTok Shop已经爆发式增长为一个重要的电商渠道。这里的受众、文化和算法都以不同的方式运作，而 破解这种机制的品牌正在取得巨大成功，并且每天都在扩大领先优势。" 据公开信息，TikTok Shop最初于2021年上线，经过近5年发展，已进入全球17个市场，包括美国、欧洲及东南亚多国，以及墨西哥、巴西、日本等。 TikTok Shop在 ...

Core Insights - AI is industrializing content production, with AI manhua (漫剧) emerging as a significant sector, potentially leading to the next major trend in the industry [1] - By 2025, Douyin is expected to launch approximately 60,900 manhua, with total views exceeding 70 billion and a market size projected to surpass 20 billion yuan [1][2] - The supply side is influenced by the iteration of large models, with platforms integrating AI tools into distribution and monetization [1][4] Market Dynamics - Douyin remains the primary growth driver, with the manhua "斩仙台下，我震惊了诸神" achieving over 1 billion views, indicating a shift from experimental content to scalable products [2] - The WeChat ecosystem is also expanding, with a 3380% year-on-year increase in manhua listings, highlighting a growing market [2] - The commercial model is evolving towards "free viewing" to attract users, monetizing through in-show ads and e-commerce [2] Production Efficiency - AI has significantly reduced production time by one-third, increased efficiency by over 80%, and lowered costs by 70%, with around 60% of manhua producers utilizing AI [4] - The manhua "斩仙台" serves as a model for industrialization, achieving a return on investment (ROI) of over 110 with a team of 12 completing it in 30 days [4] Platform Support - Major platforms like ByteDance, Kuaishou, and Tencent are intensifying support through revenue sharing, AI tools, and traffic distribution [8][10] - ByteDance's "辰星计划" offers up to 5 million yuan in guarantees for individual works, while Kuaishou's initiatives aim to attract creators with cash and traffic rewards [8] Market Concentration - The market is rapidly concentrating, with the top 20 companies accounting for 32.03% of total views in 2025, indicating a trend towards dominance by leading firms [13] - The differentiation in profitability is widening, with only the top 5 companies achieving an ROI above 1.2 [15] IP-Driven Monetization - The monetization strategy is shifting from single revenue streams to multi-layered structures centered around intellectual property (IP), enhancing long-term value [16] - Over 60% of recent hit manhua are adaptations of popular IPs, indicating a trend towards leveraging established content for consumer engagement [18] International Expansion - The overseas market for short dramas has seen significant growth, with downloads reaching 1.855 billion in 2025, and a market size projected to exceed 5 billion USD in 2026 [19] - Chinese companies dominate the monetization segment, accounting for approximately 94.93% of in-app purchase revenue in the overseas short drama market [22]

Core Insights - The competitive landscape of online music has shifted from simple copyright acquisition to a comprehensive competition involving operational capabilities and AI productivity [1][3] - In 2025, NetEase Cloud Music's total revenue was 7.76 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, with a notable shift in business structure [4][7] Business Structure - NetEase Cloud Music's revenue is divided into two main categories: online music services and social entertainment services, with online music revenue previously accounting for 89.4% in 2018 [5] - By 2025, online music services generated 5.99 billion yuan, while social entertainment services contributed 1.77 billion yuan, indicating a return to 2019 revenue proportions [7] Regulatory Impact - Two key regulatory events have influenced the online music market: the prohibition of exclusive copyrights and tightened regulations on live streaming rewards, which have reshaped the growth potential of social entertainment services [6] - These regulations have allowed NetEase Cloud Music to improve its copyright content depth, aligning more closely with Tencent Music, while also capping the growth of social entertainment revenue [6][8] Competitive Dynamics - ByteDance's Soda Music is rapidly reshaping the market, with monthly active users increasing from 120 million to nearly 140 million, positioning it as the fourth-largest player [11] - Soda Music employs a low-decision threshold model, attracting users with its algorithm-driven music discovery, contrasting with traditional music apps [12][13] User Engagement and Revenue - NetEase Cloud Music's subscription revenue grew by 13.3% to 5.053 billion yuan in 2025, driven by an increase in subscriber numbers, but offset by a decrease in average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [10] - In contrast, Tencent Music experienced a 17.2% increase in subscription revenue, with ARPPU rising by 10.2%, indicating a more favorable revenue environment [10] Strategic Responses - NetEase Cloud Music is focusing on enhancing its community features, including product upgrades and AI-driven recommendations, to maintain user engagement and listening time [19][20] - The company is leveraging AI to strengthen its competitive edge, introducing models that capture user preferences and enhance music creation tools [20] Emotional Connection vs. Algorithmic Efficiency - The reliance on algorithms raises concerns about the potential dilution of emotional connections within the music community, as evidenced by user dissatisfaction with the accuracy of annual listening reports [21] - NetEase Cloud Music faces a strategic choice between becoming a more efficient recommendation engine or preserving its community's emotional warmth, which has historically differentiated it from competitors [22]

撰文｜画画 今年春节，互联网真正的大战藏在暗处。 不是电商，不是短视频。 是AI的To C化。 阿里、腾讯、字节全线开火，用最熟悉的方式，把AI塞进上亿人的日常。 阿里塞进购物，字节塞进内容，腾讯塞进社交。 三家看似各做各的，但当你把视角拉远，会发现一个更大的趋势。 AI在向最高频、最刚需的场景渗透。 购物、内容、社交，这三个战场背后，藏着同一个终极目标，占领用户的时间、习惯和关系。 而在这三者中，社交是最底层的那一个。社交，正在成为AI ToC化最关键的战场，也是最难的题。 硅谷和中国，都看到了这个机会。 腾讯的元宝，2 月 1 日到 17 日活动期间，用户通过 "创作" 栏完成 AI 任务超 10 亿次。目前元宝日活跃 用户（DAU）已突破 5000 万，月活跃用户（MAU）达 1.14 亿。 字节豆包除夕当天AI 互动总数达 19 亿次。而在 2025 年第四季度，QuestMobile 数据显示，豆包月活飙 升至 2.27 亿，日活突破 1 亿，成为中国首个破亿 DAU 的 AI 原生应用。 至此，中国头部AI应用集体迈入"亿级俱乐部"，就连春节前低调的DeepSeek，也在假期期间，悄然完 成一轮爆 ...

据Cavalry官网显示，亚马逊(AMZN.US)、字节跳动、谷歌(GOOGL.US)及OpenAI均有员工付费使用其 产品。 Canva计划将MangoAI技术融入旗下商业级广告生成工具Canva Grow，该工具按企业用户收费，每人每 年250美元。MangoAI可追踪视频投放效果并给出优化建议。 智通财经APP获悉，近期，投资者对人工智能(AI)的潜在威胁忧心忡忡，令软件类股遭受重挫。而在初 创领域，Canva凭借在设计人群中的高人气一路高歌猛进，但这一市场正显露出脆弱迹象——其劲敌 Adobe(ADBE.US)年内股价已累计下跌30%。面对市场的剧烈变革，这家设计软件厂商选择主动出击、 加速并购。周一，Canva宣布收购两家初创公司Cavalry和MangoAI，旨在巩固其与Adobe的竞争实力。 "优质短视频的创作涉及大量环节，"Adams介绍道，"包括素材剪辑、复用不同营销活动的内容、将一 条视频结尾的优质行动号召，嫁接到另一条视频的吸睛开头等。" Cavalry是家仅有四名员工的初创企业，主营2D动画制作软件订阅服务;低调运作的MangoAI则专注广告 短视频技术。交易金额均未披露。 他补充道： ...

据外媒报道，数字商务咨询公司Flywheel飞未发布的报告预测，全球电商平台TikTok Shop的中国母公司字节跳动有望在2030年跻身涵盖所有品类的全球零售 商前三强。TikTok Shop将占据全球电商平台市场份额的14.6%，推动约1万亿美元的销售额。 Flywheel Ventures首席执行官Deren Baker表示，TikTok Shop是一个"由创作者驱动、而非搜索驱动的零售渠道"。他说，TikTok Shop的价值不仅存在于品牌认 知层面，也通过电商体现了规模化运作的优势，其光环效应更是可以使平台上推广的产品品牌搜索量、产品页面访问量和销售速度出现可衡量的提升。 Flywheel同期发布的TikTok Shop白皮书称："TikTok Shop已经爆发式增长为一个重要的电商渠道。这里的受众、文化和算法都以不同的方式运作，而破解这 种机制的品牌正在取得巨大成功，并且每天都在扩大领先优势。" 《财富》杂志据此评论称，TikTok Shop的巨大影响力并不局限于TikTok平台内部。在TikTok Shop上取得的成功会带动包括亚马逊在内的更广泛零售生态系 统的整体表现，也可以成为推动净新增客户 ...

瑞银发布研报称，随着模型能力持续迭代，2026年可能成为人工智能代理大规模采用的关键年份，届时 人工智能应用将从对话转向行动。然而该行观察到应用场景呈现分化趋势，美国日益关注企业级应用， 而中国则加大对面向消费者服务的投资力度。 该行近期启动覆盖MiniMax-WP(00100)，认为该公司具备良好布局，有望受惠于中国及全球市场的人工 智能顺风。该行同时认为中国的人工智能颠覆风险应低于美国。在互联网巨头中，看好阿里巴巴与百度 的全栈人工智能能力，以及腾讯与快手-W(01024)在人工智能应用领域的潜力。 报告指，中国主要互联网企业于春节期间推出红包活动以引导流量至其AI服务，包括腾讯控股(00700) 元宝红包，总额10亿元人民币、阿里巴巴-W(09988)千问红包，总额30亿元、百度集团-SW(09888)文心 红包，总额5亿元以及字节跳动的豆包红包。短期内，该行认为这将加速AI在用户中的普及，特别是低 线城市，并促进用户在这些原生AI应用中使用更多AI与智能代理功能，例如图像与影片生成、快闪购 物及其他交易预订服务。 长期来看，该行预期中国AI聊天机器人市场可能出现整合趋势，类似美国ChatGPT的市场格 ...

智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，随着模型能力持续迭代，2026年可能成为人工智能代理大规模采 用的关键年份，届时人工智能应用将从对话转向行动。然而该行观察到应用场景呈现分化趋势，美国日 益关注企业级应用，而中国则加大对面向消费者服务的投资力度。 长期来看，该行预期中国AI聊天机器人市场可能出现整合趋势，类似美国ChatGPT的市场格局。结合互 联网巨头既有的庞大用户基础与完整生态系统，这将有助于催生面向消费者的AI超级应用，成为中国 市场的新流量入口。 该行近期启动覆盖MiniMax-WP(00100)，认为该公司具备良好布局，有望受惠于中国及全球市场的人工 智能顺风。该行同时认为中国的人工智能颠覆风险应低于美国。在互联网巨头中，看好阿里巴巴与百度 的全栈人工智能能力，以及腾讯与快手-W(01024)在人工智能应用领域的潜力。 报告指，中国主要互联网企业于春节期间推出红包活动以引导流量至其AI服务，包括腾讯控股(00700) 元宝红包，总额10亿元人民币、阿里巴巴-W(09988)千问红包，总额30亿元、百度集团-SW(09888)文心 红包，总额5亿元以及字节跳动的豆包红包。短期内，该行认为这将加速AI ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [10][11]. Core Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to see stable profit growth, with Alibaba Cloud's revenue accelerating and the potential for AI cloud business growth. The report highlights the low valuations of leading e-commerce companies [1][10]. - In the local lifestyle segment, Meituan's long-term competitiveness and investment value remain intact despite competitive disruptions [11]. - The travel sector is projected to maintain high growth, with recommendations to focus on OTA and scenic spots closely related to outbound tourism, as well as transportation and hotels driven by business travel demand [1][11]. Industry Scale - The industry comprises 131 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,292.5 billion and a circulating market value of 1,199.0 billion [3]. Industry Index Performance - The absolute performance of the industry index shows increases of 3.7% over one month, 12.7% over six months, and 20.3% over twelve months [4]. Key Company Investment Recommendations and Valuations - **Alibaba**: Expected to benefit from the pricing power in the cloud market, with projected non-GAAP net profits of 924 billion, 1,344 billion, and 1,809 billion for FY2026-2028. Target price set at 194 HKD per share [10]. - **Pinduoduo**: Anticipated non-GAAP net profits of 1,158 billion, 1,323 billion, and 1,625 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price range of 139-174 USD per share [10]. - **JD Group**: Projected non-GAAP net profits of 264 billion, 327 billion, and 510 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price of 125-150 HKD per share [10]. - **Vipshop**: Expected non-GAAP net profits of 88 billion, 94 billion, and 96 billion for 2025-2027, with a target price of 24.74 USD per share [11]. Major Industry News - Alibaba released the Qwen 3.5 model, which has shown excellent performance in various benchmarks, enhancing productivity for developers and enterprises [19][20]. - During the Spring Festival, the Qianwen app facilitated nearly 200 million orders, indicating a significant increase in user engagement and transaction volume [21]. - ByteDance launched the Doubao 2.0 model, optimized for large-scale production environments, enhancing its capabilities in complex task execution [22].