证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 01 年 月 日 房地产开发 2026W8：上海进一步放松限购，关注小阳春市场表现 上海发布楼市新政，政策效用或持续数月，全国层面仍待中央政策的落位。 2 月 25 日上海发布楼市新政，政策主要包括限购政策放松、公积金额度 上浮、房产税免征范围扩大。非沪籍居民家庭或成年单身人士，在上海连 续缴纳社保或个税满 1 年及以上的，在外环外购买住房不限套数，在外环 内限购 1 套住房；连续缴纳满 3 年及以上的，在外环内限购 2 套住房；持 居住证满 5 年及以上的，在全市范围内限购 1 套住房。整体来看，政策围 绕新上海人（包括缴纳社保和未缴纳社保的）、公积金额度提升预算展开， 预计对刚需、刚改都有提振作用，进而去试图打开置换的链条。基于上海 当前基本面（有所下降的二手房挂牌、下跌过的房价、高企的新房库存）， 我们预计政策对市场有效烘托时长是 3-4 个月，上海小阳春成交会起量， 价格整体相对平稳，二手房议价空间收窄，进一步消耗二手挂牌和新房存 量，改善供需结构。上海城市维度政策或就此出尽，而且上海城市地位有 一定特殊，上海城市政策对全国作用相对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors, highlighting the potential for recovery in quality real estate companies and commercial properties [2][26]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate sector is approaching a bottom in its fundamentals after a deep adjustment, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][26]. - The "Shanghai Seven" policy has been introduced to optimize local real estate regulations, which includes reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing housing fund loan limits [2][26]. - The report emphasizes that the supply-side adjustments in the real estate market have significantly improved the industry landscape, making it attractive for investment [2][26]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transactions - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][6]. - Year-on-year, February saw a 24.5% decline in new home transactions across 34 cities compared to the previous year [6][7]. Second-Hand Home Transactions - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11][12]. - However, February's cumulative transactions showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11][12]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 cities had a total of 120,000 square meters of new supply, with a sales-to-supply ratio of 3.1 times [20][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, with a slight week-on-week decrease of 0.3% [20][21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remains unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [26][27]. - The report notes significant policy changes in Shanghai, including adjustments to purchase eligibility for non-local residents and increased loan limits for first-time homebuyers [26][27]. - Guangzhou plans to invest 220 billion yuan in urban renewal by 2026, indicating a strong commitment to improving housing quality [30][31]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued a $355 million senior unsecured bond with a 3-year term and an interest rate of 11.8% [33][34]. - The report highlights the performance of various real estate stocks, noting that the SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.6%, underperforming compared to the broader market [34][35]. Sector Performance Review - The property management sector saw an average decline of 0.12%, while the SW Real Estate Index outperformed with a 1.08% increase [41][42]. - The report lists the top-performing real estate stocks, with notable gains from companies like *ST Rong Control and Heimu Dan, while others like Shanghai Development and Hainan Airport faced declines [35][38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][28]. Core Insights - The report indicates that after a deep adjustment in the real estate sector, the industry fundamentals are approaching a bottom, supported by recent central government policies aimed at stabilizing the market [2][28]. - The report highlights a significant increase in new home transactions, with a week-on-week increase of 334.6% in 34 key cities, indicating a recovery trend [3][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of quality real estate companies and commercial properties, suggesting that they will recover profitability sooner and with more elasticity due to improved industry dynamics [2][28]. Industry Data Summary New Home Transaction Volume - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, new home transactions in 34 key cities totaled 1.057 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 334.6% [3][11]. - The transaction volume for first-tier cities was 950,000 square meters, up 315.9% week-on-week, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a staggering increase of 626.2% [3][11]. Second-Hand Home Transaction Volume - In the same week, second-hand home transactions in 13 key cities reached 512,000 square meters, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 823.7% [11]. - However, the cumulative transaction volume for February showed a year-on-year decline of 25.5% compared to the previous year [11]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of February 21-27, 2026, 15 key cities launched 120,000 square meters of new supply, with total sales of 380,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 3.1 times [21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 88.436 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 0.3% week-on-week [21]. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for February remained unchanged, with a 1-year LPR at 3% and a 5-year LPR at 3.5% [28][29]. - The "Shanghai Seven Measures" policy was introduced to optimize the local real estate market, including reducing the purchase threshold for non-local residents and increasing the maximum public housing fund loan amount for first-time buyers [28][29]. Company Announcements - New City Development successfully issued $355 million in senior unsecured bonds with a maturity of 3 years and a coupon rate of 11.8% [36]. - The report notes that the real estate sector underperformed compared to the broader market, with the SW Real Estate Index rising by only 0.6% compared to a 1.08% increase in the CSI 300 Index [37][38].

"史上最长春节假期"收官，全国多个商场"成绩单"来了！ 今年春节档期，合生商业携手YSL、周大福、波司登、烤匠等战略品牌打造"新春品牌周"，助力经营"开门红"。2月15日至2月23日，全国5座城市、15个 购物中心联动共创，实现销售额突破6.2亿元，客流量超470万人次。全国范围内餐饮业态、潮玩零售业态、运动零售业态等大幅度提升，涌现出销冠商户 数近200个，消费活力蓬勃绽放。 图源：合生商业官方公众号 北京朝阳合生汇：2月15日-23日春节假期，总销售超2.3亿元，同比提升28%；总客流近100万人，同比提升17%，单日最高客流近13万人；全球旅客到访 同比增加34%，单日最高突破1000人。 单个商场9天狂卖2.3亿、日均客流至多超19万人次、商户业绩屡创新高……实体商业"火爆开局"。 01. 集团/区域公司客流、销售额 华润万象生活：135个购物中心零售额超75亿，客流超6500万人次 春节假期（2月15日-23日）期间，华润万象生活在管135个购物中心客流超6500万人次，车流超500万辆，零售额超75亿元；万象影城在营62家影院实现票 房收入超6880万元，观影人次超110万人。 合生商业：15个购 ...

[Table_Report] 相关报告 期待更强政策干预，推动供需再平衡 [Table_Industry] 房地产 ——中国城市运行周期跟踪（2025.Q4） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 涂力磊(分析师) | 021-23185710 | tulilei@gtht.com | S0880525040101 | | 谢皓宇(分析师) | 010-83939826 | xiehaoyu@gtht.com | S0880518010002 | | 白淑媛(分析师) | 021-38675923 | baishuyuan@gtht.com | S0880518010004 | 本报告导读： 2025 年 4Q 市场整体表现出成交量乏力、价格环比继续回落以及库存上涨、去化压 力持续增大特点。考虑一、二线城市出清周期均呈现持续攀升态势，且达到 2023 年以来最高水平，市场需要更长时间或更强力的政策干预来推动再平衡。 投资要点： 房地产《沪"新七条"发布，小阳春可期》2026.02.25 房地产《第 8 周成交回落、 ...

内房板块年初至今已上升16%，展望未来两个月，摩通预计该板块或持续波动，大致上保持韧性，直至 4月底的政治局会议，即下一个政策窗口。摩通首选股是华润置地、华润万象生活及中国金茂，但认为 中国海外发展有望迎头赶上，因其表现一直落后。 摩根大通发表研报指，上海推出新一轮购房政策优惠政策，包括放宽非户籍人士购房限制，外环以外区 域所需社保/税单证明由3年缩短至1年、允许外环以外区域持有3年税证的居民购买多一个单位等。摩通 认为举措并不意外，且上海放宽力度较去年北京12月类似举措强，相信未来一至两个月上海的成交量及 价格将会回稳。然而，摩通不认为单凭该政策便预期内房市场可持续复苏；而下一个放宽的城市将是深 圳。 ...

Group 1 - The high-end consumption market is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, with strong momentum in the Greater China region [1][2] - From the second half of 2025, major luxury goods groups are expected to see significant improvement in sales growth in the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), with LVMH and Richemont experiencing their first positive growth after seven consecutive quarters [1] - The improvement in the Chinese market is a key variable for the performance recovery of global luxury goods groups, with major brands optimistic about the long-term potential of the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The retail sales growth of high-end shopping malls in China has significantly increased in the second half of the year, with retail sales of tenants in Hang Lung Properties' mainland malls expected to grow by 4% year-on-year in 2025 [1] - Swire Properties' malls have also seen a notable acceleration, with the Shanghai Xinyi Swire City benefiting from the iconic project "Louis" leading to a 49.6% increase in retail sales [1] - The wealth effect is driving a rebound in high-end consumption demand, with high-frequency indicators such as the growth of wealthy individuals' assets, duty-free data from Hainan, and Macau gaming data confirming this recovery [2]

开源证券发布研报称，此次新政缩短社保年限、公积金贷款额度提升等政策均在预期工具箱范围内，政 策精准度和诚意均较高，外环内购房门槛大幅降低。政策在春节后、楼市传统"小阳春"前精准落地，旨 在降低刚需及改善型购房门槛，有望进一步巩固上海楼市自年初以来的边际回暖趋势，推动市场止跌回 稳。 投资建议 开源证券主要观点如下： 推荐标的：(1)布局城市基本面较好、善于把握改善型客户需求的强信用房企：绿城中国、建发国际集 团、招商蛇口、中国金茂、中国海外发展、建发股份、滨江集团、越秀地产；(2)住宅与商业地产双轮 驱动，同时受益于地产复苏和消费促进政策：华润置地、新城控股、龙湖集团；(3)"好房子，好服 务"政策下服务品质突出的优质物管标的：华润万象生活、绿城服务、保利物业、招商积余、滨江服 务、建发物业。 事件：上海调减住房限购、优化住房公积金贷款 公积金贷款额度上调，完善个人住房房产税 本次政策灵活应用公积金工具，降低购房成本，首套最高公积金贷款额度提升80万至240万，叠加多子 女家庭和购买绿色建筑最高上浮35%，最高额度可达到324万元，有效降低了购房贷款成本。同时贷款 套数认定向商贷看齐，已结清住房公积金贷款可再 ...

房地产 行 业 研 究 2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2025-02 2025-06 2025-10 2026-02 房地产 沪深300 相关研究报告 非沪籍外环内购房调整，市场成交稳中向好 《楼市延续筑底行情，政策宽松下布 局时点已至 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.24 《上海三区启动住房以旧换新，推动 新房去库存 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2026.2.4 《2025Q4 公募基金延续低配，持股集 中度进一步提升—行业点评报告》 -2026.1.27 上海限购放宽、公积金提额，力促"小阳春"回稳 ——行业点评报告 | 齐东（分析师） | 胡耀文（分析师） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn | huyaowen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 | 证书编号：S0790524070001 | huyaowen@kysec.cn 事件：上海调减住房限购、优化住房公积金贷款 2026 年 2 月 25 日，上海市五部门联合印 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the market in 2026 [5][8]. Core Insights - The release of Shanghai's "New Seven Measures" on February 25, 2026, is expected to effectively release pent-up reasonable demand, leading to a simultaneous recovery in both new and second-hand housing markets [3][5]. - The new policies include adjustments to purchase restrictions, optimization of housing provident fund loans, and improvements to property tax regulations, which are designed to stimulate market activity [5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Changes - The new measures involve: - Reduction of purchase restrictions for non-local residents and single individuals, allowing them to buy multiple properties under certain conditions [5]. - Increase in the maximum loan amount for first-time homebuyers from 1.6 million CNY to 2.4 million CNY, with potential increases for families with multiple children and those purchasing green buildings [5]. - Property tax exemptions for local families under specific conditions, aimed at facilitating housing upgrades [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a "small spring" in the market characterized by increased transaction volumes and stable prices, driven by targeted policy measures that address qualification, funding, and cost [5][6]. - The combination of these policies is expected to effectively release previously accumulated reasonable demand, boosting both new and second-hand housing markets [5][6]. Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including: - Development companies: Poly Developments, China Merchants Shekou, and Jin Di Group [5]. - Commercial and residential: China Resources Land and Longfor Group [5]. - Property management: Wanwu Cloud and China Overseas Property [5]. - Cultural tourism: Overseas Chinese Town A [5].