Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, nickel ore production increased by 3% year-on-year to 9.169 million wet tons, while carbonated lithium production at the Centenario plant reached 440 tons [1][4]. - The nickel sales volume for Q1 2025 was limited to 5.399 million wet tons, reflecting a significant decrease compared to the previous quarter and year [2]. - The NPI production remained stable at 9,100 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 23% [3]. - The Centenario plant's lithium production is expected to reach its rated capacity by the end of 2025, despite some delays in equipment commissioning [4][14]. - Manganese ore production in Q1 2025 was 1.785 million tons, showing a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter, although it decreased by 7% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights a strong demand for titanium iron ore, with production increasing by 13% year-on-year to 130,000 tons [9]. Summary by Sections Nickel - Nickel ore production for Q1 2025 was 9.169 million wet tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, but a 34% decrease quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The external sales volume of nickel ore was limited to 5.399 million wet tons, reflecting a 68% decrease from the previous quarter and an 11% decrease year-on-year [2]. - The average grade of nickel ore sold decreased significantly, impacting reference prices negatively, although a premium of nearly 50% was maintained due to limited domestic supply [2]. Lithium - The Centenario plant achieved its first lithium carbonate production in December 2024, with Q1 2025 production reaching 440 tons and a purity exceeding 99.5% [4][6]. - The plant is expected to reach its full design capacity once all equipment is operational, with a focus on improving the concentration process [14]. Manganese - Manganese ore and sinter production in Q1 2025 was 1.785 million tons, a 44% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 7% decrease year-on-year [7]. - The average cash cost for manganese ore was $2.4 per ton, reflecting a 7% increase year-on-year due to decreased sales volume [7]. Mineral Sands - Mineral sands production in Q1 2025 was 226,000 tons, a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 23% increase year-on-year [9]. - Titanium iron ore production increased by 13% year-on-year to 130,000 tons, driven by strong demand from the US and China [9]. Financial Performance - The adjusted revenue for Q1 2025 was €742 million, remaining flat year-on-year, with negative effects from sales volume and product mix offset by positive price and currency effects [10]. 2025 Outlook - Nickel production and sales are expected to be limited to 32 million tons, with external sales targeted at 29 million tons [12]. - The lithium production target for 2025 is expected to be at the lower end of the guidance range due to delays in equipment commissioning [14]. - Manganese ore transport is projected between 6.7 million and 7.2 million tons for 2025, with cash costs expected to be at the upper end of the guidance range [15].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The lithium carbonate inventory has increased, and domestic lithium prices have decreased, indicating a potential for continued price fluctuations in the future [15][40] - The nickel market is experiencing upward price trends due to increased mining quotas in Indonesia, although demand remains weak [3][6] - Cobalt prices have surged due to supply tightening expectations following the Democratic Republic of Congo's announcement to suspend cobalt exports for four months [7] - The rare earth market is showing signs of supply constraints, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides rising [9][16] - Tin prices have decreased, but the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, is a key factor to monitor [10][16] - Antimony prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, with a strong bullish sentiment among traders [11][17] - Uranium prices are supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors affecting the market [14][17] Summary by Sections Lithium Industry Update - Domestic lithium carbonate prices have decreased, with industrial-grade prices averaging 73,000 CNY/ton, down 2.01% from the previous week [40] - Inventory levels have increased, with total lithium carbonate inventory reaching 115,500 tons [40] - Supply is expected to grow rapidly in March, but demand may not keep pace, leading to potential oversupply [40] Nickel Industry Update - LME nickel prices increased to 15,460 USD/ton, up 1.05% from the previous week [3] - Indonesia's nickel mining quota for 2025 has been raised to 29.85 million wet tons, which may lead to increased global nickel supply [6] Cobalt Industry Update - Cobalt prices have risen significantly, with electrolytic cobalt reaching 185,000 CNY/ton, up 13.15% [7] - Supply remains tight, and demand from the new energy sector is still present, although overall demand is sluggish [7] Rare Earth Industry Update - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxides have increased, with supply constraints expected to persist [9][16] - The market sentiment is positive, with expectations of stable demand from sectors like new energy and robotics [9][16] Tin Industry Update - Tin prices have decreased, with LME tin settling at 31,350 USD/ton, down 6.28% [10] - The resumption of mining in Myanmar is uncertain, and the market is closely monitoring this situation [10][16] Antimony Industry Update - Antimony prices have increased due to tight raw material supplies, with 2 low bismuth antimony ingots priced at 155,000-157,000 CNY/ton [11][17] - The market is experiencing a bullish sentiment, with traders reluctant to sell [11][17] Uranium Industry Update - Uranium prices are at a near 15-year high, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][17] - The market outlook remains optimistic due to structural shortages in supply [14][17]

观点聚焦 理由 我们认为，阿根廷经济改革有望带来营商环境的全面改善，提升当地盐湖的经济效益和开发效率。 一、阿根廷：南美第二大经济体与重要的新兴市场 1.1 宏观经济：走进南美洲第二大经济体 阿根廷位于南美洲南部，是仅次于巴西的南美第二大经济体。 根据中国商务部，阿根廷国土面积为278 万平方公里，东临大西洋，西部以安第斯山脉与智利为界，北部和东部与玻利维亚、巴拉圭、巴西、乌 拉圭接壤。根据阿根廷国家统计和人口普查局2024年7月的结果，阿根廷全国人口为4706万人，其中白 人和印欧混血人种占95%，布宜诺斯艾利斯市人口约289万人，是全国人口最集中的城市。根据世界银 行和阿根廷国家统计局，按当年汇率计算，2023年阿根廷GDP总量为6226亿美元，是南美洲第二大经济 体，2023年阿根廷人均GDP为1.32万美元，在世界银行的经济体收入水平分组中属于中上收入水平。 图表1：阿根廷在南美洲的地理位置 我们于2024年12月初前往阿根廷，进行了为期一周的产业深度调研，对赣锋锂业、紫金矿业在阿根廷的 盐湖项目进行实地考察，主要观点如下： 核心矛盾：经济改革是阿根廷矿业发展的核心变量。 阿根廷总统米莱的经济改革对矿 ...