2026 年 2 月 08 日│美国 互联网 亚马逊 4Q 业绩：收入同增 13.6%至 2134 亿美元，超 VA 一致预期 1%（下 同）。北美、国际、AWS 营收分别同增 10%、17%、24%，对应经营利润 率同比+1/-1/-1.9pct。4Q 经营利润剔除非经常损益后 274 亿美元（超预期 4%），净利润同增 6%至 212 亿美元。4Q 资本开支达到 385 亿美元，超预 期 12%。尽管 4Q 云增速和行业差距扩大（对比谷歌云、微软智能云 +48/29%yoy），我们认为应更多关注中长期催化：①Anthropic 已开始使用 Rainier 进行模型训练，叠加近期 AWS EC2 上调价格，强劲需求有望支撑 AWS 在 26 年加速增长；②亚马逊正与 OpenAI 洽谈至多 500 亿美元的潜 在投资，后续有望引入 OpenAI 定制化模型至其 AI 产品（例如智能语音助 手 Alexa）；③Agentic 购物渗透有望加速，公司亦计划引入更多三方智能 助手；近期 Cowork 及集成 Gemini 的 Chrome 已对用户渗透形成推动。维 持"增持"评级。 26 年 Capex 指引同比 ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon's significant investment in AI and cloud infrastructure is met with investor concerns about spending and potential overcapacity, yet the company's leadership reassures that demand for AWS services remains strong across both AI and non-AI projects [1][2][10]. Group 1: Amazon's AI Strategy - Amazon is not only a leader in e-commerce but also in cloud computing through Amazon Web Services (AWS), which has seen growth driven by AI demand [5][6]. - AWS provides a range of AI solutions, including in-house developed chips and access to Nvidia's high-end chips, along with services like Amazon Bedrock for adapting large language models [6][7]. Group 2: Financial Performance - AWS reported a $142 billion annual revenue run rate, with a 24% revenue increase, marking the strongest growth rate in 13 quarters [7]. - Amazon's market capitalization stands at $2.2 trillion, with a current stock price of $210.32, reflecting a recent decline of 5.55% [9]. Group 3: Leadership Insights - CEO Andy Jassy emphasized that customers are increasingly choosing AWS for both core and AI workloads, indicating resilience in demand even if AI growth slows [9][10]. - Jassy also noted that Amazon is monetizing new capacity immediately, which suggests that the company is not solely reliant on AI demand and is effectively managing its investments [11].

Core Viewpoint - Amazon is aggressively investing in artificial intelligence and related technologies, leading to a significant forecast of $200 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, which has caused a drop in its stock price [1][5]. Financial Performance - Amazon's fourth-quarter revenue increased by 14% to $213 billion, while operating income rose by 18% to $25 billion, driven by growth across its retail, advertising, and cloud sectors [3]. - The company's gross margin stands at 50.29% [5]. Capital Expenditure Insights - CEO Andy Jassy indicated that the company expects to invest approximately $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2026, citing strong demand for AI services, custom semiconductor chips, warehouse automation, and space-based internet offerings [5][6]. - Wall Street had anticipated a capital expenditure of around $150 billion, making the additional $50 billion a surprise that led to investor concerns and a sell-off of shares [7].

Core Insights - SoundHound AI is developing a voice AI platform that combines large language models and audio recognition technology to create a customer service AI agent that aims to be indistinguishable from a human [2] - The company has made significant strides in the restaurant sector, but faces challenges in expanding its technology to other customer service applications [6][9] Company Opportunities - SoundHound has identified a need for a more effective automated customer service system that can understand and respond in natural language, addressing frustrations with traditional voice menu systems [4] - The company's voice ordering platform has demonstrated impressive metrics, including 32% higher accuracy than human employees, 85% faster service times, and annual cost savings of $58,000 per location [5] Challenges and Risks - SoundHound's technology is not unique, as many competitors offer similar AI voice assistants and chatbots, which raises concerns about its competitive edge [8] - The company faces a time constraint to develop a versatile voice AI capable of handling a wide range of customer inquiries, which is more complex than restaurant ordering [9] - There is a potential long-term issue regarding the availability of customer interaction data necessary for training its AI, as the company may struggle to afford third-party LLM access [10][11] Financial Overview - SoundHound's current market capitalization is $3.6 billion, with a share price of $8.60, reflecting a 16.94% increase [12][13] - The company has been unprofitable and cash-flow negative, leading to a significant increase in share count over the past three years due to capital dilution [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Amazon with a target price of $260 [6]. Core Insights - Amazon's Q4 revenue increased by 13.6% year-over-year to $213.4 billion, exceeding consensus expectations by 1% [1]. - The company reported a Q4 operating profit of $27.4 billion, which was 4% above expectations, and a net profit increase of 6% to $21.2 billion [1]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 reached $38.5 billion, surpassing expectations by 12% [1]. - Concerns arose regarding cash flow and high valuation due to a significant increase in 2026 Capex guidance to $200 billion, compared to the expected $147.5 billion [2]. - AWS revenue growth was 24% year-over-year, although it lagged behind competitors like Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure [3]. - The company is focusing on high-end organic grocery products through its Whole Foods brand, with plans to open over 100 new stores in the coming years [4]. - Adjustments to revenue and net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were made, reflecting a slowdown in AWS growth and increased capital expenditures [5]. Financial Performance - Q4 operating margin was reported at 11.3%, with a net margin of 10.7% [18]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $137.5 billion and $178.5 billion, aligning with expectations [2]. - The annualized revenue for AWS is projected to exceed $100 billion, with significant contributions from self-developed chips like Trainium and Graviton [3]. - The report anticipates a decrease in net profit margins due to increased capital expenditures and depreciation [5]. Business Segments - North American e-commerce revenue grew by 10%, while international e-commerce revenue increased by 17% [4]. - The grocery business is transitioning to focus on high-end organic products, with a total annual sales exceeding $150 billion [4]. - The AI shopping assistant Rufus has expanded its user base to over 300 million, significantly increasing transaction probabilities for users [15]. Future Outlook - The report projects Amazon's revenue for 2026 to be $806 billion, with net profit expected to reach $84 billion [8]. - The company is investing heavily in its Leo project, which aims to provide low-orbit satellite internet services, enhancing its cloud offerings [15]. - AWS is expected to enter a new pricing cycle, with recent price increases for EC2 instances indicating strong demand for cloud services [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The company's overall performance shows steady growth in e-commerce and accelerated growth in cloud revenue, with Q4 2025 revenue at $213.4 billion, up 14% year-over-year, and operating profit at $25 billion, up 18% year-over-year [1][9] - For Q1 2026, the company expects revenue between $173.5 billion and $178.5 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 11%-15% [1][9] - The company plans to increase capital expenditures to $200 billion in 2026, a 56% year-over-year increase [3][4] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Q4 2025 revenue reached $213.4 billion, with a net profit of $21.2 billion, reflecting a 6% year-over-year increase [1][9] - The company included $2.44 billion in litigation, impairment, and severance costs in its operating profit [1][9] Retail and Other Businesses - North American revenue was $127.1 billion, up 10% year-over-year, while international revenue was $50.7 billion, up 17% year-over-year [2][21] - Advertising revenue grew by 23% year-over-year, reaching $21.3 billion in Q4 2025 [2][21] - The AI shopping assistant Rufus has 300 million active users, contributing nearly $12 billion in annualized incremental sales [2][29] Cloud Business - AWS revenue for Q4 2025 was $35.6 billion, a 24% year-over-year increase, with an operating profit margin of 35% [3][20] - The company plans significant capital expenditures for AWS, with $38.5 billion spent in Q4 2025, a 48% increase year-over-year [3][20] - The company has delivered over 1.4 million Trainium2 chips, with a 30%-40% improvement in cost-effectiveness compared to similar GPUs [3][27] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2026 and 2027 are adjusted to $808.5 billion and $904.8 billion, respectively, with net profit forecasts of $86.7 billion and $99.7 billion [4][5] - The company expects an EPS of $8.19 for 2026 and $9.41 for 2027 [5][33]

Core Insights - Amazon remains the leader in cloud computing despite losing market share to Google Cloud and Microsoft Azure, with AWS reporting a 20% growth compared to Google Cloud's 36% and Azure's 39% in 2025 [1][2][5] Group 1: Market Position and Growth - Amazon's AWS generated over $21.2 billion in revenue in 2025, significantly outpacing Google Cloud's $15.5 billion growth and Azure's approximately $19 billion growth [5] - AWS's annualized run rate reached $142 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 24%, marking its fastest revenue growth in 13 quarters [3][6] - AWS's chips business, focused on AI, achieved a $10 billion annual revenue run rate, growing at triple digits [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2025, AWS operating income rose to $45.6 billion, compared to $13.9 billion for Google Cloud, highlighting AWS's profitability advantage [6] - Amazon's total revenue for the quarter increased by 14% to $213.4 billion, with operating income up 18% to $25 billion [10] Group 3: Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook - Amazon plans to invest $200 billion in capital expenditures in 2025, primarily for AWS and AI workloads, indicating a commitment to maintaining its leadership position [6] - The company generated $139.5 billion in operating cash flow in 2025, suggesting that the $200 billion target may lead to negative free cash flow in 2026 [10] - The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of less than 30, with adjustments indicating it is fairly valued, though the spending boom may limit short-term upside potential [11]

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decline in Amazon's stock following its earnings release, Wall Street analysts maintain a generally positive outlook for the company's shares over the next year [1]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, Amazon reported earnings per share of $1.95, slightly below Wall Street estimates of $1.97, while revenue increased to $213.39 billion, surpassing expectations of $211.33 billion [3]. - Amazon Web Services (AWS) generated $35.58 billion in revenue, exceeding forecasts of $34.93 billion, and advertising revenue reached $21.32 billion, also above estimates [3]. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Amazon holds a 'Strong Buy' consensus based on ratings from 42 analysts, with 37 'Buy' ratings, five holds, and no 'Sell' ratings. The average 12-month price target is $283.49, indicating an upside of approximately 34.8% [4]. - RBC Capital's Brad Erickson reiterated an 'Outperform' rating with a $300 price target, emphasizing confidence in Amazon's long-term, AI-driven growth despite risks from higher capital expenditures [7]. - Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan lowered his price target to $280 from $300 while maintaining a 'Buy' rating, noting increased investor sensitivity to Amazon's investment cycle [8]. - Truist Securities analyst Youssef Squali cut his price target to $280 from $290 but kept a 'Buy' rating, citing higher near-term costs related to aggressive investments [9]. - DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria downgraded Amazon to 'Neutral' from 'Buy' and lowered his price target to $175, expressing concerns about AWS losing market share to competitors [10].

Core Insights - The projected spending of four major tech companies for 2026 is expected to be significant, comparable to historical capital efforts in the U.S. [1] Group 1 - The spending of these tech giants, when viewed as a percentage of GDP, indicates a substantial investment trend [1]

Group 1: Microsoft's Position in AI - Microsoft is perceived to be falling behind in the artificial intelligence race despite its partnership with OpenAI, as competitors increase their infrastructure investments [1][2] - Doug O'Laughlin criticized Microsoft for not integrating new AI models promptly, attributing this to a "skill issue" and suggesting that CEO Satya Nadella is overly focused on a single product rather than his broader CEO responsibilities [2][3] - O'Laughlin emphasized that Microsoft has "the most to lose" among major cloud service providers, indicating a critical situation for the company [3] Group 2: Amazon's Infrastructure Dominance - Amazon Web Services (AWS) is recognized as the largest provider of power globally, with capabilities to scale operations effectively according to data center tracking [4] - O'Laughlin noted that AWS consistently meets its operational timelines and can achieve significant scaling, highlighting its competitive edge [4] Group 3: Financial Metrics Comparison - Microsoft has a market capitalization of $2.98 trillion, while Amazon's market cap stands at $2.25 trillion [5] - The 52-week high for Microsoft is $555.45, compared to Amazon's $258.60, and the 52-week low for Microsoft is $344.79, while Amazon's is $161.43 [5] - Despite competitive pressures, Microsoft maintains a superior free cash flow margin of 22%, significantly higher than the 5% or lower margins of its peers [4]