房地产行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 地产政策仍定位于托底和稳信心 核心观点 投资建议与投资标 ⚫ 4 月 25 日中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究当前经济形势和经济工作。会议指出 "加力实施城市更新行动，有力有序推进城中村和危旧房改造。"2024 年 10 月住 建部提出通过货币化安置房等方式新增实施 100 万套城中村改造、危旧房改造，并 于今年两会上表示将继续扩大规模。多城已出台放票安置政策，我们认为年内旧改 有望继续放量。针对部分项目"征收方案扎实"和"项目资金总体平衡"之间的矛 盾，不排除未来中央财政补贴资金缺口以及央行投放 PSL 以支持城中村改造。"加 快构建房地产发展新模式，加大高品质住房供给。"今年"好房子"首次被写入 《政府工作报告》，3 月底，住建部发布国家标准《住宅项目规范》。虽然新房市 场整体成交同比仍有下行压力，但在部分高能级城市，核心区域质量与得房率双高 楼盘陆续推出，释放改善型住房需求，在一定程度上给予新房销售支撑。未来随着 更多四代宅的推出，新房销售有望开始企稳。"优化存量商品房收购政策。"2024 年 10 月，财政部提出专项债收储商品房用作保障性住房；2025 年 3 月， ...

Group 1: Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook - The final consumer confidence index for April in the U.S. is 52.2, a significant drop from 57 in March, marking one of the lowest levels since the late 1970s [1] - Consumers expect an average inflation rate of 4.4% over the next 5-10 years, the highest since 1991, with a one-year inflation expectation of 6.5%, the highest since 1981 [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates rising asset valuation risks and high U.S. Treasury yields, with global trade risks identified as the top threat to financial stability [1] Group 2: Stock Market Performance and Predictions - The U.S. stock market experienced a strong rebound, with the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator signaling a potential new upward cycle, historically leading to a 100% success rate of gains in the following 12 months [3] - Despite the rebound, analysts caution that the market may face volatility due to macro uncertainties, particularly regarding trade negotiations [3][4] - Bank of America suggests that the rebound may not be sustainable unless three conditions are met: a trade agreement, a Fed rate cut, and resilient consumer spending [3][4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices experienced significant volatility, with a record outflow of $1.27 billion from the SPDR Gold ETF, the largest single-day outflow since 2011 [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the current pullback in gold prices may present a buying opportunity, advocating for a 10% allocation in gold within investment portfolios [5] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive despite short-term risks, as inflation persists and the Fed maintains a neutral policy stance [5][7] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry Developments - Novo Nordisk achieved a significant legal victory, allowing the FDA to take action against the production of generic versions of its diabetes and weight loss drugs, which had previously faced shortages [8] - The court ruling is seen as a positive development for Novo Nordisk, which has faced stock price declines due to competitive pressures and underwhelming new product performance [8] - The market for weight loss drugs is now highly competitive, with Novo Nordisk's main competitor being Eli Lilly, posing ongoing challenges for the company's stock performance [8] Group 5: Autonomous Driving Regulations - The U.S. Department of Transportation announced a major relaxation of regulations for autonomous vehicles, streamlining the accident reporting process and facilitating the commercial rollout of self-driving cars [10] - This regulatory change is particularly beneficial for Tesla, which plans to launch its Cybercab service in Texas, and may enhance the testing and deployment of autonomous vehicles [10] - Despite an 18% rebound in Tesla's stock, concerns remain regarding the company's performance metrics and the influence of CEO Elon Musk's political activities on stock volatility [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing importance of real estate strategies, emphasizing the need for quality housing supply and urban renewal initiatives to stabilize the market [4][32]. - Recent policies aim to enhance the real estate market's stability, with a focus on optimizing existing housing stock and promoting high-quality housing [32][33]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 34 key cities recorded a total new housing transaction volume of 206.4 million square meters, reflecting an 8.4% week-on-week increase [5]. - Year-on-year, April's new housing transactions in these cities decreased by 21.2% compared to the same period last year [7][8]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 142.4 million square meters, marking a 6.5% increase from the previous week [13]. - Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions for April showed a 1.5% year-on-year increase [13]. Inventory and Supply - In the week of April 19-25, 2025, 15 key cities launched 121 million square meters of new housing, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.68, indicating ongoing inventory reduction [23]. - The total available residential area in these cities reached 89.5 million square meters, with an average absorption period of 23.2 months [23]. Policy and News Tracking - The report notes that the central government is reinforcing economic stability measures, including urban renewal and high-quality housing supply [32][33]. - Local governments are implementing targeted policies, such as tax subsidies for home purchases in specific regions [33][35]. Company Performance Overview - The report provides a snapshot of key companies' performances, indicating mixed results with some companies like Lujiazui showing revenue growth of 33% in 2024, while others like Tianjian Group experienced a 21% revenue decline [39]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw Lujiazui's revenue increase by 41% year-on-year, reflecting a positive trend in the company's performance [39].

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 李贝贝 上海报道 4月23日，上海陆家嘴金融贸易区开发股份有限公司（下称"陆家嘴"，600663.SH）披露，2024年，公司营收增长 显著，同比上涨33.12%，净利润等数据亦有所提升。 不过，报告期内，公司短期借款为198.14亿元，同比增长42.24%，期末现金及现金等价物余额仅为77.43亿元。同 期，因2024年度住宅销售回款流入较2023年度减少，以及支付土地款等，公司经营活动产生的现金流净额13.16亿 元，同比大降88.44%。 需要注意的是，尽管偿债压力提升、经营现金流大幅下滑，但陆家嘴依然保持着高额现金分红。公司2024年度现 金分红合计金额为7.54亿元（含已中期分配的现金红利），占2024年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的50.02%。不 仅如此，公司自2002年以来坚持每年现金分红，且自2016年度起，连续八年每年现金分红比例达50%。而陆家嘴 前十名股东中，上海陆家嘴（集团）有限公司持股62.20%。 此外，同日公布的一季度报告显示，今年1—3月，公司住宅类物业销售签约面积1.08万平米，同比下降2%，权益 签约面积0.98万 ...

活动旨在汇聚头部投资机构与产业资本代表，共同探讨S基金如何在优化资产配置、激活市场流动性、助力产业升级中发挥关键作用，推动私募股权二级市 场健康发展。 随着国内私募股权市场规模持续扩容，基金退出需求激增，S基金作为二级市场的重要参与者，在盘活存量资产、化解流动性困境等方面的价值日益凸显。 然而，当前我国S基金市场仍面临交易流程复杂、估值定价模糊、信息不对称等挑战。 陆家嘴金融沙龙作为前沿金融思维的对话平台，即将迎来第九期活动——S基金专场。 本次沙龙以"S基金赋能股权投资新生态"为主题，将于2025年4月26日上午在上海浦东陆家嘴举行。活动旨在汇聚头部投资机构与产业资本代表，共同探讨S 基金如何在优化资产配置、激活市场流动性、助力产业升级中发挥关键作用，推动私募股权二级市场健康发展。 作为主嘉宾，上海国投孚腾资本总经理、管理合伙人费飞将发表重要演讲。费飞在股权投资领域深耕多年，目前负责国投孚腾全面统筹管理工作，他将分享 自己对行业趋势的深刻洞察与丰富的实战经验。 对话嘉宾也将结合各自领域的特点，围绕主题进行发言。 周智辉，中金资本董事总经理、中金汇融总经理，同时也是中金资本S业务、江苏/河南区域、半导体行业组 ...

①Alphabet一季度营收和利润均超预期 搜索广告业务强劲表现 得益于搜索广告业务持续强劲的表现，谷歌母公司Alphabet一季度营收902.34亿美元，同比增长12%， 不计入汇率变动影响同比增长14%；净利润345.4亿美元，同比激增46%，每股摊薄收益2.81美元，均远 超分析师预期。谷歌搜索及其他业务营收507.02亿美元，YouTube广告业务营收89.27亿美元，略低于预 期。谷歌云业务营收122.6亿美元，基本符合预期。公司还宣布回购至多700亿美元的A类和C类股。谷 歌A类股和C类股隔夜均收涨，受益于盘后公布的财报优秀，盘后股价均涨4.5%左右。 评论员徐广语：谷歌一季度财报表现亮眼，核心业务增长强劲，广告收入（搜索+YouTube）同比增长 超15%，云业务收入同比增长28%，成为重要增长引擎。公司首次宣布季度股息（每股0.21美元）及700 亿美元股票回购计划，传递现金流充裕和股东回报信心。人工智能投入初见成效，Gemini模型推动搜索 与云业务创新，资本支出同比提升至120亿美元，持续强化AI基础设施布局。尽管面临反垄断诉讼风 险，但市场反应积极，盘后股价一度涨超5%，显示投资者对其长 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][5][15] Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue and profit growth, with a maintained dividend payout ratio of 50%. The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1.74 billion, 1.89 billion, and 2.05 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.35, 0.38, and 0.41 yuan. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 26.5, 24.4, and 22.5 times for the respective years [5][6][9] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 14.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.51 billion yuan, up 5.3% year-on-year. The gross profit margin and net profit margin decreased to 44.0% and 12.3% respectively [6][9][12] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, and a net profit of 630 million yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year [6][9] Rental Income and Property Management - In 2024, rental income decreased by 6.5% to 4.17 billion yuan, with office property income down by 10%. However, the overall occupancy rate remained stable, with 80% for grade A office buildings and 87% for high-quality R&D buildings [7][8] Sales and Debt Management - The company reported a cash inflow from property sales of 9.55 billion yuan in 2024, with residential property sales down by 49% year-on-year. The total interest-bearing debt decreased by 2.74 billion yuan to 70.65 billion yuan, with an average financing cost of 3.06% [8][9][11] Valuation Metrics - The company's valuation metrics indicate a PE ratio of 26.5 for 2025, decreasing to 22.5 by 2027. The P/B ratio is projected to decline from 1.9 in 2024 to 1.6 in 2027 [9][12]

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 2024-04 2024-08 2024-12 2025-04 陆家嘴 沪深300 | 日期 | 2025/4/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 9.16 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 12.10/7.62 | | 总市值(亿元) | 461.22 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 289.06 | | 总股本(亿股) | 50.35 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 31.56 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 15.33 | 股价走势图 房地产/房地产开发 陆家嘴（600663.SH） 2025 年 04 月 24 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 齐东（分析师） 胡耀文（分析师） | 杜致远（联系人） | | --- | --- | | qidong@kysec.cn huyaowen@kysec.cn | duzhiyuan@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522010002 证书编号：S0790524070001 | 证书编号：S0790124070064 | | 营收利润稳健增长，派息比例维持  | 50%，维持"买入 ...

①美财长称贸易战不可持续 特朗普称无意解雇鲍威尔 美股周二大幅收高 美元回升 美国财政部长贝森特称贸易战不可持续，并预计局势即将缓和，其言论推动美股周二大幅收高，三大股 指均收回周一跌幅，纳斯达克中国金龙指数隔夜收涨近3.7%。明尼阿波利斯联储行长卡什卡利称美联 储有责任确保关税不会引发持续的通胀问题。之后，特朗普释放贸易缓和信号并表示无意解雇美联储主 席鲍威尔，美股科技股盘后继续上涨。美元指数隔夜收涨，今天亚洲早盘继续上扬，反弹至99.5上方。 另外，昨天拍卖的美国2年期国债中标收益率3.795%，为9月以来最低，招标结果公布后收益率小幅走 高，2年期美债收益率最终上涨6.3个基点报3.8211%。10年期国债收益率昨天下跌1.96个基点，报 4.3910%。 评论员简佳：特朗普第二任期的政策引发了全球对美国金融体系信心的动摇。他对美联储的攻击和关税 政策不仅削弱了美元和美国国债作为传统避险资产的吸引力，还加剧了市场对美国经济前景的担忧。尽 管美国经济体量庞大，不太可能迅速崩溃，但当前的动荡已对全球金融市场产生了深远影响。美元的主 导地位虽在短期内难以被取代，但长期来看，美国需重新审视其经济政策，以恢复市场 ...

Financial Performance - The company's operating revenue for the first quarter reached ¥4,217,292,183.25, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.69% compared to ¥2,790,379,422.84 in the same period last year[3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was ¥630,643,555.69, a slight increase of 1.60% from ¥620,732,674.40 in the previous year[3] - The operating profit for Q1 2025 was ¥1,285,908,787.63, which is an increase of 38.1% from ¥931,448,600.98 in Q1 2024[19] - Net profit for Q1 2025 was ¥965,661,889.93, up 36.2% from ¥709,287,223.02 in Q1 2024[19] - The total comprehensive income for Q1 2025 was ¥933,696,424.87, compared to ¥338,819,248.22 in Q1 2024, reflecting a substantial increase[20] - The basic earnings per share for Q1 2025 was ¥0.1252, slightly down from ¥0.1290 in Q1 2024[20] Cash Flow and Liquidity - The net cash flow from operating activities was ¥1,118,417,116.33, showing a significant increase of 87.27% compared to ¥597,232,495.75 in the same period last year[3] - In Q1 2025, the net cash flow from operating activities was CNY 1,118,417,116.33, an increase of 87.5% compared to CNY 597,232,495.75 in Q1 2024[22] - Total cash inflow from operating activities reached CNY 6,651,970,389.33, up from CNY 4,568,923,495.90 in the previous year, reflecting a growth of 45.7%[22] - Cash outflow for purchasing goods and services decreased to CNY 1,213,897,500.20 from CNY 2,045,980,855.43, a reduction of 40.6%[22] - The company reported a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of CNY 632,584,086.48, contrasting with a decrease of CNY -4,835,835,868.44 in Q1 2024[23] - The ending balance of cash and cash equivalents was CNY 8,375,832,705.79, up from CNY 6,182,206,354.84 in the previous year[23] Assets and Liabilities - The total assets at the end of the reporting period amounted to ¥164,690,617,409.01, reflecting a 2.50% increase from ¥160,674,361,929.42 at the end of the previous year[4] - The company's total liabilities increased to ¥114,637,494,323.43, compared to ¥112,124,461,302.99 in the previous period, reflecting a growth of 2.2%[18] - The total assets of the company amounted to ¥164,690,617,409.01, up from ¥160,674,361,929.42, indicating a growth of 2.0%[18] Shareholder Information - The number of ordinary shareholders at the end of the reporting period was 95,953[9] - The largest shareholder, Shanghai Lujiazui (Group) Co., Ltd., holds 62.20% of the shares, totaling 3,131,636,695 shares[10] Investment and Market Strategy - The company plans to continue expanding its market presence and enhancing its investment strategies in the upcoming quarters[2] - The company reported non-recurring gains and losses totaling ¥10,317,779.54, primarily from government subsidies and other income[8] - The company has completed soil remediation work on contaminated land held by its subsidiary, with further progress being monitored[14] - The long-term equity investments stood at RMB 11.05 billion, slightly up from RMB 11.01 billion, indicating a stable investment strategy[17] Cost Management - The company reported a decrease in financial expenses to ¥321,218,262.59 from ¥332,895,304.78 in the previous year, indicating improved cost management[19] Risk Management and Transparency - The company is committed to maintaining transparency regarding risk management and will continue to disclose relevant information to protect shareholder interests[15]