行 业 及 产 业 交通运输/ 航空机场 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 《为何现阶段我们仍看好航空？——航空 迎来黄金时代之周期持续性探讨》 2026/01/30 《航空"反内卷"初见成效——航空迎来 黄金时代系列报告》 2026/01/20 证券分析师 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 郑逸欢 A0230526010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 24 日 节中航空量价超预期，飞机供应链 挑战依旧艰巨 看好 ——航空迎来黄金时代之 26 年春运点评 本期投资提示： ⚫ 风险提示：油汇大幅波动、经济增速不及预期、航空安全事故风险。 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [47]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel season has seen a record high in cross-regional personnel flow, with an estimated total of 5.08 billion trips in the first 20 days, averaging 250 million trips per day, which is a 5.6% increase compared to the same period in 2025 [9][10]. - The aviation sector has shown strong performance in both passenger volume and ticket prices, with a 5.4% year-on-year increase in passenger volume and a 3.3% increase in average ticket prices during the same period [10][11]. - The 2026 Spring Festival is characterized by two main trends: "secondary travel" and "concentrated return trips," driven by a later Spring Festival and longer holiday period [12][13]. Summary by Sections Passenger Volume and Pricing - In the first 20 days of the Spring Festival, the average daily passenger volume for civil aviation reached 2.376 million, a 5.4% increase year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 1003 yuan, up 3.3% year-on-year [10][11]. - The domestic average passenger load factor was 85.1%, reflecting a 1.1% increase year-on-year, indicating strong demand [11]. Market Dynamics - Six listed airlines collectively withdrew 5 aircraft in January 2026, indicating a tightening supply constraint in the industry [26]. - The report highlights that except for Spring Airlines, all other major airlines have shown negative year-on-year growth in capacity deployment, with Spring Airlines leading at 4.5% growth [26]. Demand and Future Outlook - The demand structure in the aviation industry is improving, with a rebound in business travel sentiment since September 2025 [34]. - The introduction of visa-free policies for Canada and the UK starting February 17, 2026, is expected to boost cross-border travel demand [34]. - High passenger load factors are anticipated to lead to increased price elasticity, with the potential for significant price increases in 2026 [35]. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines for potential elasticity release, as well as low-cost carrier Spring Airlines for its core competitive advantages [35].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the transportation sector Core Views - The transportation index decreased by 1.4% while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 0.4%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [1] - During the Spring Festival travel period, the total number of people moving across regions increased by 5.1% year-on-year, with significant growth in waterway travel at 21.3% [2] - The express delivery sector is benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition, with a recommendation for SF Holding based on valuation and operational resilience [2] - The logistics sector is recommended for Haichen Co., as the chemical product price index shows a decline, but operational metrics remain stable [3] - The aviation sector is experiencing a slight increase in flight volumes, with domestic flights up by 5.67% year-on-year, and a recommendation for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4] - The shipping sector is seeing fluctuations in freight rates, with geopolitical tensions driving oil transport rates higher, and a recommendation for companies involved in oil transport [5] Summary by Sections Shipping and Ports - The shipping sector is experiencing a slowdown in container shipping rates, with the CCFI index at 1088.14 points, down 3.0% week-on-week and 21.6% year-on-year [22] - Oil transport rates are increasing due to geopolitical risks, with the BDTI index at 1756.4 points, up 2.2% week-on-week and 91.5% year-on-year [35] Aviation and Airports - The aviation sector is showing signs of recovery, with a year-on-year increase in passenger numbers and a recommendation for airlines based on improved load factors and pricing [47] - The Brent crude oil price is at $71.76 per barrel, reflecting a 5.92% increase week-on-week, which may impact operational costs for airlines [64] Rail and Road - The rail sector is seeing an upward trend in passenger volumes, with a year-on-year increase of 8.52% in December [73] - The road transport sector is stable, with a slight decrease in freight traffic but a recommendation for investment based on dividend yields exceeding government bond rates [75]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on oil transportation and shipbuilding sectors, recommending stocks such as ST Songfa and China Merchants Energy [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong performance in oil shipping, with VLCC TCE rates rising by 24% to $146,385 per day, and a significant increase in demand leading to higher freight rates [4]. - The global energy chain's valuation is on the rise, driven by long-term capacity utilization and mid-cycle profit expectations, suggesting a favorable environment for shipping rates [4]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the dry bulk market, with the BDI index recording a slight increase of 1.19% to 2,043 points, indicating stable demand despite seasonal fluctuations [5]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index decreased by 1.41%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.77 percentage points, with the aviation sector experiencing the largest decline at -5.16% [5]. - The report notes that the coastal dry bulk freight index in China fell by 1.76%, while the Baltic Dry Index increased by 1.19% [5]. Oil Transportation - VLCC rates reached a new high of approximately $160,000 per day during the Spring Festival, with expectations for continued strength in the coming weeks [4]. - The report indicates that the average VLCC freight rate increased by 23% week-on-week, reaching $149,564 per day, reflecting tight capacity and strong demand [4]. Dry Bulk Market - The report mentions that the Capesize freight rate decreased by 4.1%, while the Panamax index showed resilience with a 3.5% increase [4]. - The report anticipates that post-holiday demand recovery will be crucial for the dry bulk market, particularly in iron ore shipments [4]. Air Transportation - The report suggests that the airline industry is at a turning point, with potential for significant profit growth due to increased passenger volumes and operational efficiencies [4]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [4]. Express Delivery - The report notes uncertainties in the express delivery sector due to fluctuating demand and competitive pressures, but highlights the strong market position of leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are reported to be resilient, with the Ministry of Transport data showing a slight decrease in freight volume but overall stability [4]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value recovery in undervalued stocks [4].

Group 1 - The year 2025 saw significant commercial events that reflect changing consumer expectations and corporate accountability [2] - Companies faced backlash for safety and quality issues, highlighting the need for improved internal processes and transparency [3][4][8][10][11][12][19] - The shift in consumer power emphasizes the importance of brands respecting public sentiment and adapting to a more transparent market environment [21][22] Group 2 - 吉祥航空 faced criticism for distributing expired snacks, revealing serious lapses in food safety protocols and poor crisis management [3][4] - 千禾's "zero-additive" soy sauce controversy raised questions about product labeling and consumer trust, leading to a re-evaluation of marketing strategies [5][6][7] - The charging battery industry experienced a safety crisis with 罗马仕 recalling over 490,000 units due to fire risks, contrasting with 安克创新's swift response [8][9] - 白象's "half bag" noodle marketing was criticized for misleading consumers about product quantity, resulting in a rebranding effort [9][10] - 华熙生物 and 巨子生物 engaged in a public dispute over product claims, damaging both brands' reputations in the competitive beauty market [10][11] - 爱康国宾 faced a public relations disaster after a client revealed a serious misdiagnosis, leading to widespread criticism of the commercial health screening industry [11][12] - 理想汽车's marketing stunt involving a crash test video backfired, leading to public skepticism and a necessary apology [12][13][14] - 桃李面包's controversial advertising campaign resulted in a public backlash, but the company's transparent response turned the situation into a positive PR opportunity [15][16] - 西贝's struggle with public perception regarding the use of pre-prepared ingredients led to significant operational changes and store closures [17][18] - 始祖鸟's environmentally insensitive marketing stunt sparked outrage among its core audience, prompting a public apology and highlighting the importance of brand values [19][20]

2月22日，农历正月初六，春节假期进入尾声，海南岛迎来年度最大规模的返程客流。界面记者查询多家在线旅游平台发现，2月22日至23日（初六至初七） 期间，从三亚飞往北京、上海等核心城市的直飞航班经济舱几乎全部售罄，仅剩的公务舱票价普遍逼近万元大关。 | 三亚至深圳24日机票价格 | | | --- | --- | | 与出岛机票价格高企形成鲜明对比的是，进岛机票价格大幅"腰斩"。2月23日，北京飞往海口、三亚的航线出现大量1折甚至0.8折经济舱机票，最低售价仅 | 320元。同期，广州飞往三亚的机票也仅需329元（不含税）。 | 广州到三亚机票价格 面对"天价机票"，航司方面也给出了回应。根据"海口发布"消息，海南航空工作人员表示，春运期间机票价格受市场供需关系影响出现波动，属于正常现 象。所有国内航班经济舱票价均严格按备案价格体系执行。"我们通过内部系统实时监控票价波动，确保春运期间票价处于合理区间。" | 单程:三亚(凤凰国际机场)-上海 02月23日周- | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机场 √ | 直飞/经停 | 航 ...

记者从航旅纵横大数据平台了解到，海口、三亚、昆明作为热门避寒游目的地，春节机票预订量实现稳 定增长。 2月22日至23日，海口至上海航线经济舱已全部售罄，仅余少量全价公务舱，最高票价达11560元（不含 税费）。海口、三亚至杭州航线经济舱已全部售罄，只剩少量公务舱票价近万元（不含税）。 春节假期的未来几天，海南出岛交通将迎来返程高峰。目前，机票、轮渡车票均已出现紧张态势。其中 琼州海峡过海出岛车票已全部售罄，部分航线机票告急。 "我们通过内部系统实时监控票价波动，确保春运期间票价处于合理区间。"海南航空工作人员表示，高 峰时段的机票价格相对稳定，所有国内航班经济舱票价均严格按备案价格体系执行。 | 三亚一杭州 ▼ | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 公务/头等舱 1成人 | | | | | 周六体 周一体 | 周日休 | 周二 | 周三 | | 21 02-23 | 22 | 24 | 25 | | 筛选 1 下午出发 | 只看直飞 | | 机场 ▼ 大型机 | | 高性价比 | | | | | 06:45 | 成都转 | 21:50 | 少量 ¥6980¥6925 | | ...

Core Viewpoint - 吉祥航空's operational data for January 2026 shows a decline in passenger capacity and turnover, indicating challenges in the airline's performance despite a slight increase in seat occupancy rate [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - In January 2026, the company's passenger capacity decreased by 7.84% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing declines of 3.49%, 16.09%, and 39.44% respectively [1] - Passenger turnover fell by 6.04% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes experiencing declines of 1.51%, 16.01%, and 35.70% respectively [1] - The seat occupancy rate was 84.03%, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year, with domestic, international, and regional routes showing increases of 1.76%, 0.07%, and 4.99% respectively [1] Group 2: Aircraft Fleet - As of January 31, 2026, the company operated 93 A320 series aircraft, including 27 A321s, 22 A320neos, and 14 A321neos, along with 10 Boeing 787 series aircraft [1] - The subsidiary, 九元航空, operated 26 Boeing 737 series aircraft [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Shareholder Actions - 吉祥航空's stock price has been underperforming since its listing in May 2015, fluctuating between 9 to 15 yuan, with the latest price at 13.93 yuan, significantly lower than its initial peak [1] - The controlling shareholder, 均瑶集团, reduced its stake from 46.74% to 44.74% through block trades and further to 44.35% through competitive bidding, indicating a trend of share reduction [2] - The second-largest shareholder, 东航产投, also reduced its holdings, decreasing from 13.35% to 12.00% over several transactions [3] Group 4: Financial Performance - After a challenging period from 2020 to 2022, 吉祥航空's performance improved in 2023 and 2024, achieving record revenue and returning to profitability, although not reaching pre-2019 levels [3] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 17.48 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.06% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.089 billion yuan, down 14.28% year-on-year [3]

亚特兰蒂斯酒店面积超过1000平方米、价格显示超9万元/晚的皇家套房也已订完。三亚，归来仍是顶流。 这个假期，你在哪里？ 同程旅行数据显示，今年春节的九天长假让"分段式过年"更加火爆，2月18日（大年初二）至2月19日（大年初三）成为节中出游高峰时段，节中民航出行 热度较去年春节同期提升38%。从整个春节假期来看，民航2次以上出行旅客同比涨幅预计达一半以上。 "先回家团圆，再出发度假"复合型春节催化下，国内酒店节中入住高峰更加显著。同程旅行数据显示，节中期间（大年初一至初五）国内酒店均价较春节 前夕高出30%以上，部分热门旅游城市更是高出一倍及以上。 今年是春节申遗成功后第二个"非遗中国年"。同程旅行数据显示，汕头、福州、太原等一批年俗年味独特、沉浸式体验强的目的地突出重围，热门景区门 票预约及入园客流维持高位。当拼假一族提前开启长线出境游时，同程旅行平台上，还有不少旅客选择在节中涌向港澳、东南亚等短途出境目的地。 150元住进市委党校 "越长大，越是怀念那份弥足珍贵的年味。"早在一个月前，小万就多方找攻略、做规划。看惯了舞龙舞狮、逛够了各种庙会，今年她想去个年味浓郁、体 验独特的地方过春节。 而和小万想法一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Spring Airlines, despite being perceived as "stingy," has achieved significant profitability through extreme cost control and a focus on providing the best value for money in the airline industry [7][13]. Group 1: Profitability and Performance - In 2024, among seven listed airlines in A-shares, only Spring Airlines, along with Huaxia Airlines and Juneyao Airlines, reported profits, with Spring Airlines leading at a net profit of 2.273 billion yuan [8]. - For the first quarter of 2025, Spring Airlines maintained its position as the most profitable airline with a net profit of 677 million yuan [9]. - Spring Airlines achieved an average passenger load factor of 91.5% in 2024, surpassing the industry average of 83.5% by 8 percentage points [35]. Group 2: Cost Control Strategies - The core strategy of Spring Airlines revolves around extreme cost control, encapsulated in the "two singles, two highs, two lows" model [19]. - The "two singles" refer to a single aircraft type (Airbus A320) and a single cabin class (economy), which reduces procurement and training costs significantly [20][21]. - The "two lows" indicate low sales and management expenses, with 98.4% of tickets sold through its own platforms, saving over 200 million yuan annually in commissions [24][25]. Group 3: Operational Efficiency - Spring Airlines maximizes aircraft utilization, achieving 6-8 flights per day compared to the industry standard of 4-5 [33]. - The airline's operational efficiency is further enhanced by a low staff-to-aircraft ratio of 80.8:1, the lowest in the domestic market [26]. Group 4: Revenue Generation Model - Spring Airlines employs an innovative revenue model that separates the base fare from ancillary services, allowing customers to choose additional paid services [38]. - In 2024, ancillary revenue reached 1.03 billion yuan, a 14% increase year-on-year, accounting for 5.15% of total revenue [41]. - This model caters to both budget-conscious travelers and those willing to pay for enhanced services, creating a win-win situation [44]. Group 5: Future of Low-Cost Airlines - The article suggests that the future of China's civil aviation may lean towards low-cost models, as the current market share of low-cost airlines is only 12.7%, compared to over 30% globally [53]. - The industry is expected to see a bifurcation, with low-cost airlines like Spring Airlines targeting mass market needs while traditional carriers focus on premium services [58].