Summary of Conference Call on Fluff Pulp Industry Industry Overview - The fluff pulp market is facing a price increase pressure of 20%-30% due to supply constraints [1] - High-end fluff pulp is made from softwood and is suitable for baby diapers, while mid-range fluff pulp is used for regular sanitary napkins, with differences in raw materials and performance [1] - Imported fluff pulp, primarily from North America and Northern Europe, has superior fiber length and strength compared to domestic materials [1][5] - China relies heavily on imports for fluff pulp due to the scarcity of softwood resources [1][6] Key Points and Arguments - Current fluff pulp prices are approximately $1,050 per ton for IPH and around 8,100-8,200 RMB per ton for domestic softwood pulp [1][7] - If tariffs remain unchanged, domestic prices are expected to exceed 9,000 RMB, while imported products may reach around 12,000 RMB [1][7] - New production capacities are being introduced both domestically and internationally, which may alleviate supply tightness [1][8] Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The fluff pulp supply chain is under pressure due to the U.S.-China trade war, which has increased import costs by about 50% [2] - Domestic companies are responding to rising costs by building new factories and managing inventory [9][10] - The majority of high-quality fluff pulp is concentrated in North America and Northern Europe, with China producing only a small fraction of its annual demand of approximately 1 million tons [6] Downstream Impact - Downstream companies, including those producing baby diapers and sanitary products, are significantly affected by rising costs [2][11] - The cost of fluff pulp constitutes about 10% of the total production cost for female hygiene products, allowing for some buffer against price increases [12] - Companies are currently observing market conditions and managing inventory levels to mitigate immediate impacts [12][14] Future Considerations - The price volatility of fluff pulp will test the supply chain management capabilities of downstream brands [13] - Smaller companies may face greater pressure and could pause production plans if they continue to rely on imported materials [13][14] - It is recommended to monitor fluff pulp price fluctuations and adjust procurement strategies to ensure supply chain stability [15]

3 后市展望 目 录 CONTENTS 研究所 2025年4月20日 研究所 需求拖累，盘面反弹回落 ——国信期货纸浆周报 1 本周行情回顾 2 基本面分析 研究所 分 t1 行情回顾 一、本周行情回顾 研究所 第 P 一 a 部 r 本周纸浆期货主力合约完成移仓换月，SP2507反弹回落，盘面仍然偏弱运行。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：文华财经 国信期货 4 近期纸浆市场价格偏稳运行，一方面下游原纸企业采购积极性改善欠佳，原纸市场价格持续偏弱运行；另一方面，外盘报价多轮提涨，成本端亦有一定支撑 。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议。 数据来源：Choice 国信期货 6 研究所 第 P 二 a 部 r 分 t2 基本面分析 二、基本面分析：纸浆市场价格 研究所 研究所 二、基本面分析：纸浆进口量增加 据中华人民共和国海关总署数据显示，2025年1-2月，我国共进口纸浆638.9万吨，进口金额为3990.3百万美元，平均单价为624.56美元/吨。1月至2 月累计进口量及金额较去年同期分别增加6.1%、8%。2月针叶浆进口量79.82万吨，环比增加 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: April 2, 2024 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Contracts: SP2505, SP2509, and SP2601 showed price declines of -1.02%, -0.90%, and -0.47% respectively. The main contract of pulp futures dropped 1.02% from the previous settlement price of 5,696 yuan/ton to a closing price of 5,638 yuan/ton. [7] - Spot Market: The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,580 - 6,900 yuan/ton, with the low - end price down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Shandong Silver Star was 6,480 - 6,500 yuan/ton. [7] Operation Suggestions - Cost Support: Suzano announced a $20/ton increase in the price of eucalyptus hardwood pulp "Goldfish" in Asia in April 2025, indicating cost - side support. [8] - Supply and Demand: In February 2024, the chemical commodity pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 0.3% year - on - year. Softwood pulp shipments decreased by 4.8% year - on - year in February, while hardwood pulp shipments increased by 3.6% year - on - year in January. From January to February, China's total pulp imports were 6.39 million tons, a 6.1% year - on - year increase. As of March 28, 2025, the pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.79 million tons, a 10.9% decrease from the previous month. Market demand has not improved significantly, and downstream confidence is insufficient, with rational replenishment as the main strategy. [8] - Market Outlook: Recently, pulp prices broke through support levels with increasing volume, opening up further short - term downward space. The market is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the price guidance in April. [8] Group 3: Industry News - Investment Plan: On April 1, Kemira announced a multi - million - euro investment in its Wellgrow factory in Thailand to expand multiple production lines for chemical strength agents for paper, cardboard, and toilet paper. The expansion project will start in 2026, and the new production capacity is expected to be put into formal operation in August 2026. The expanded annual production capacity of the Wellgrow factory is expected to reach about 100,000 tons, aiming to serve the growing Southeast Asian and Indian markets. [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price spreads, needle - broadleaf price spreads, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, paper product prices and spreads, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the research and development department of CCB Futures. [16][17][23][25][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index decreased by 1.47% this week, outperforming the broader market by 0.82 percentage points; the paper sub-sector fell by 0.50%, outperforming the market by 1.79 percentage points [2][12] - Cultural paper prices remained stable while packaging paper prices declined [4][19] - The report highlights a potential price recovery for cultural paper and white cardboard due to cost support from rising pulp prices [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index fell by 1.47%, while the paper sub-sector decreased by 0.50%, ranking 19th among 28 first-level industries [2][12] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by decline, are paper, packaging printing, furniture, and entertainment products, with declines of 0.50%, 0.69%, 1.87%, and 3.52% respectively [2][12] Industry Chain Data Tracking - Raw materials: Domestic waste paper prices fell by 19 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices increased by 5-15 USD/ton [23] - Finished paper: Double-sided paper prices remained stable at 5450 CNY/ton, while white cardboard prices decreased by 10 CNY/ton to 4300 CNY/ton [35] - Profitability: There is a divergence in profitability for cultural paper, with large paper companies seeing a decrease of 3 CNY/ton, while small companies increased by 15 CNY/ton [39] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper Industry (002078, Buy), Xianhe Co., Ltd. (603733, Buy), Huawang Technology (605377, Buy), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) [4] - For waste paper products, the report suggests Jiu Long Paper (02689, Buy) and Shanying International (600567, Hold) due to expected improvements in supply and demand dynamics [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the market by 0.18 percentage points, while the paper sub-sector rose by 0.21%, underperforming the market by 1.38 percentage points [1][13] - The report highlights that the prices of double-sided paper have slightly increased, while packaging paper prices have decreased [8][39] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 1.76%, ranking 13th among 28 first-level industries, with the paper sub-sector increasing by 0.21% [1][13] - The four major sub-sectors of light manufacturing, ranked by growth, are furniture, packaging printing, cultural products, and paper, with respective increases of 2.66%, 2.30%, 0.55%, and 0.21% [1][13] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The national waste price increased by 27 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices remained stable [25] - The average market price for double-sided paper rose by 5 CNY/ton to 5450 CNY/ton, while white cardboard prices fell by 8 CNY/ton to 4310 CNY/ton [39] - The report notes a mixed profitability among finished paper products, with double-sided paper profitability increasing by 1-18 CNY/ton [49] Investment Recommendations and Targets - Suzano announced a price increase of 20 USD/ton for broadleaf pulp, supporting the price recovery of cultural paper and white cardboard [3] - Recommended stocks include Sun Paper Industry (002078, Buy), Xianhe Shares (603733, Buy), Huawang Technology (605377, Buy), and Wuzhou Special Paper (605007, Hold) [3] - The report anticipates a slowdown in the growth of new supply in the industry by 2025, leading to gradual improvement in overall supply and demand, recommending Jiulong Paper (02689, Buy) and Shanying International (600567, Hold) [3]

造纸轻工行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 3 月智利纸浆外盘报价继续提涨 ——造纸产业链数据每周速递（2025/03/01） 核心观点 ⚫ 本周轻工制造行业指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢大盘 2.41pct；造纸子板块下跌 0.12%， 跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周沪深 300 指数下跌 2.22%，轻工制造(申万)指数上涨 0.19%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.41pct，在 28 个申万一级行业中位列第 7 位；二级行 业中，造纸子板块下跌 0.12%，跑赢大盘 2.11pct。本周轻工四大子板块按涨幅由大 到小分别为家具、文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块，其中家具板块上涨 0.89%， 文娱用品、造纸以及包装印刷板块分别下跌 0.07%、0.12%、0.41%。 产业链数据跟踪 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 近期 Suzano 宣布 2025 年 3 月阔叶浆报价环比提涨 20 美元/吨、国内现货价格亦开 始触底回升，成本支撑下文化纸、白卡纸有望延续价格修复态势，推荐林浆纸一体 化行业龙头太阳纸业(002078，买入)。同时回溯历史来看，特种纸企业在浆价上行 之后的半年内通常会呈现出盈利扩张，推荐特种纸领军企业仙鹤 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Pulp & Paper Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Global Pulp & Paper Industry** and discusses key themes for **2025** [1][2]. Core Themes and Insights 1. **Pulp Price Volatility**: Pulp prices experienced a **30% change** from peak to trough in **2024**, with a short **6-month cycle** expected to continue into **2025** [1]. 2. **Demand Normalization**: Following a strong **2023**, demand patterns are expected to normalize in **2025**, with **China** leading growth and an incremental demand growth of **1.2 million tons** primarily driven by hardwood demand [2][3]. 3. **Oversupply Forecast**: The market is projected to be oversupplied by **800,000 tons** in **2025** [2]. 4. **Utilization Rates**: The utilization rate for hardwood is expected to decline from **93% to 92%** in **2025** [3]. 5. **Chenming's Impact**: The temporary shutdown of **Chenming** in **China** is a significant factor affecting pulp prices, with a potential restart of production being closely monitored [18][19]. 6. **Growing Capacity in China**: An additional **5 million tons per annum (mtpa)** of hardwood pulp is expected to enter the market in **2025-26**, contributing to increased domestic production [23][24]. 7. **LatAm Expansion**: Latin America is seeing a resurgence in pulp capacity expansion, with **15 mtpa** growth over the last decade and another **13 mtpa** planned by the end of the decade [10][12]. 8. **European and Canadian Costs**: Pulp production costs in **Europe** and **Canada** are expected to remain elevated due to inflationary pressures, with North America experiencing a **40%** increase since the pandemic [36][37]. 9. **China's Virgin-Paper Oversupply**: China's paper utilization has been declining, averaging **66% in 2023** and **60% in 2024**, indicating ongoing oversupply issues [43][44]. 10. **Softwood vs. Hardwood Price Spreads**: The price spread between softwood and hardwood is expected to remain elevated, ranging from **$50 to $250 per ton** due to supply dynamics [66][67]. Additional Important Insights - **FX Impact**: Foreign exchange volatility is highlighted as a critical factor for pulp producers, affecting cash costs and pricing power [75][76]. - **Integration Trends**: There is a continuing trend of pulp-paper integration in **China**, reducing dependency on imported market pulp [49][50]. - **European Demand Decline**: European pulp demand has been in structural decline since **2018**, with a **CAGR of -5%** expected to persist [58][59]. - **Investment Considerations**: Investors are advised to monitor woodchip availability and pricing as proxies for domestic pulp production and profitability [25][54]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights discussed during the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the pulp and paper industry.

观点聚焦 理由 秘鲁：宏观环境稳定，社区关系逐步改善 。 秘鲁铜矿资源禀赋优异，索尔币值稳定、经贸政策开放，但社区关系是其主要挑战。本次调研我们观察到当地 中资矿企的国际化管理和ESG融合能力正在显著提升，对改善经营的稳定性有重要意义。 巴西：优异资源禀赋和规模经济带来显著的成本优势。 巴西锂矿 成本具备全球竞争力，我们认为主要来源于不输澳矿的资源禀赋、显著优于非洲的基础设施配套以及与中国相似的低要素成本优势。此外，巴西拥有丰富且 优质的铁矿和桉树资源，铁矿石矿端成本以及阔叶浆现金成本均处于全球低位。 阿根廷：经济改革将是阿根廷矿业发展的核心变量。 我们认为在积极的情 况下经济改革有望带来更低的通胀、更宽松的审批环境、更稳定的税收政策、更少的贸易管制，有望驱动阿根廷盐湖的成本上涨放缓、盈利能力增强、投资 力度加大和开发效率提升。 如何理解中资矿企在南美的国际化？ 相比非洲，南美国家呈现经济发展程度较高、基础设施配套较好、欧美和本土矿企竞争激烈以及"小政府、大社区"的 特征。如果说中资矿企在非洲国际化的本质是在非洲的"中国化"，那么中资矿企在南美国际化的本质则是在南美的"本土化"，这需要更高阶的国际化能力。 一 ...