商报讯 要说最近几年杭州城市建设发展最快的板块，位于拱墅与余杭交界处的北部新城，绝对排得上 前三。 2018年12月，当华润拿下杭行路TOD综合体地块时，北部新城核心区几乎还是一张巨大的白纸，不论 是商业、住宅、还是各类配套用地，都还在等待出让。 不少计划在北部新城置业的购房者，都把目光瞄准了即将亮相的望舟府。这个项目，位于通运街与杭行 路交界处，距离城北万象城不到1公里，到玉湖公园步行也就十来分钟，更重要的是，它由滨江越秀两 大深耕房企合作开发，在产品力上实现了大幅跃升。 最近，玉湖公园刚刚公示了三期建设方案，玉湖西岸即将完善提升。 根据公示，玉湖三期用地面积76633平方米，其中水域面积26204平方米，建筑面积19235平方米。 三期同样有不少让人惊喜的景点。面积约950平方米的星河揽月挑台，兼具生态观景与活动举办功能， 可以承接文艺演出、发布会等活动。面积约3500平方米的泵道乐园，服务滑板、轮滑等潮流运动，打造 城北潮流运动打卡地。 另外，还规划了2座配套用房，在风格上与玉湖美术馆呼应，可以带来更多更好的公园服务。 更好的玉湖，更好的北部新城，也即将迎来更好的住宅项目。目前，整个北部新城在售只有2个 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index over the next 6-12 months [26]. Core Insights - In December 2025, new home prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 0.7%, with both rates remaining unchanged from November [5][9]. - The average year-on-year decline for new home prices in 2025 was 3.8%, which is less than the 4.5% drop in 2024, marking three consecutive years of decline. Second-hand home prices saw a 6.3% year-on-year drop, also less than the 7.4% decline in 2024, continuing a four-year downward trend [5][9]. - The report highlights that all 70 cities experienced a month-on-month decline in second-hand home prices for four consecutive months, indicating persistent downward pressure on prices [5][20]. Summary by Sections New Home Prices - In December, new home prices in first-tier cities fell by 0.3%, with Shanghai showing a slight increase of 0.2%, while Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou experienced varying declines [5][9]. - The average year-on-year decline for new home prices in first-tier cities was 1.8%, a reduction of 1.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [5][9]. Second-Hand Home Prices - Second-hand home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, with a cumulative decline over the past eight months being greater than that in second and third-tier cities [5][9]. - The average year-on-year decline for second-hand home prices in first-tier cities was 4.2%, with Guangzhou experiencing the largest drop at 7.3% [5][9]. Market Trends - The report indicates a trend of "weak to strong" market dynamics, with first-tier cities showing a more significant decline in second-hand home prices compared to lower-tier cities [5][9]. - The expectation of continued downward pressure on home prices is supported by rising bearish sentiment among market participants, suggesting potential policy adjustments in early 2026 [5][9]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: 1. Real estate companies with stable fundamentals and high market share in core cities, such as China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou [5]. 2. Smaller, agile companies that have made significant breakthroughs in sales and land acquisition since 2024, like Poly Real Estate Group [5]. 3. Commercial real estate companies that are actively exploring new consumption scenarios and operational models, such as China Resources Vientiane Life and Swire Properties [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a positive trend in the Hong Kong real estate sector, with most property stocks experiencing gains, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized three key areas for urban renewal this year: the renovation of old urban communities, the promotion of complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces in cities [1] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing targeted policies and supporting reasonable financing needs of property companies, as well as addressing the housing demands of residents [1] Group 2 - In the secondary housing market, major cities are showing signs of recovery, with first-tier and strong second-tier cities experiencing increased activity [1] - Data from monitoring agencies indicate that the transaction volume in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen is improving, with Shanghai's second-hand housing listings decreasing for nine consecutive months, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights a positive trend in the Hong Kong real estate stocks, with several companies experiencing significant gains, indicating a recovery in the market [1] - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasized three key areas for urban renewal this year: the renovation of old urban communities, the promotion of complete community construction, and the transformation of small public spaces [1] - The government aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing targeted policies and supporting reasonable financing needs of real estate companies, as well as addressing the housing demands of residents [1] Group 2 - In the secondary housing market, major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen are showing signs of recovery, with a notable decrease in the number of listings in Shanghai for nine consecutive months, leading to a more balanced supply-demand relationship [1] - Specific stock performance includes China Jinmao rising by 4.4%, Greentown China by 4%, Zhongliang Holdings by over 3%, and New City Development by 1.8%, among others, indicating a general upward trend in the sector [2]

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Market Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** market, specifically discussing the challenges and outlook for 2026 in the Asia Pacific region [1][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Home Sales Decline**: - Home sales in December showed a significant decline, with the CREIS 65-city primary sales volume falling **35% year-on-year** compared to a **41% decline in November**. The 33-city secondary sales volume decreased by **29% year-on-year**, worsening from a **20% decline in November** [3]. - For the full year 2025, primary sales growth weakened to **-20% year-on-year**, while secondary sales saw a slight decline of **-1% year-on-year** [3]. 2. **Stable Price Declines**: - The NBS reported that primary home prices in 70 cities fell by **3.0% year-on-year** and **0.4% month-on-month**. Secondary prices dropped **6.1% year-on-year** and **0.7% month-on-month** [4]. - Tier-1 cities experienced deeper secondary price declines, with a **1.3% month-on-month** drop, compared to **0.7% in tier-2 and lower-tier cities** [4]. 3. **Inventory Levels**: - Primary inventory months increased to **29.6x** in December, up from **27.8x** in November, indicating weaker sales across all city tiers. Tier-1 cities saw inventory rise to **19.5x**, tier-2 to **28.8x**, and tier-3 to **38.2x** [6]. 4. **Land Sales Weakness**: - Land sales in December dropped **12% year-on-year** in GFA and **23% year-on-year** in value, leading to a year-to-date decline of **-13.4% year-on-year** in GFA [7]. 5. **Market Sentiment and Policy Support**: - The market sentiment remains fragile, with higher inventory levels and reactive policy support expected to keep the physical market challenging in 2026. The focus should be on quality state-owned enterprises (SOEs) with clearer alpha visibility [1][2]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: - Favorable companies include **CR Land** and **Seazen A** as robust mall operators benefiting from consumption-boosting initiatives. **C&D** and **COLI** are recommended as residential market consolidators with optimized landbanks that could support margins and return to positive earnings growth [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Client Engagement**: Client visits decreased by **4% month-on-month**, indicating a potential decline in investor interest [5]. - **Listing Volume**: New secondary listings softened to **-3% month-on-month** and **-15% year-on-year**, while total listings remained stable at **-0.9% month-on-month** [5]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the China Property market, highlighting significant declines in sales and prices, increasing inventory, and the need for strategic investment in quality companies.

Summary of Real Estate Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state and future outlook of the real estate market in China, particularly focusing on new and second-hand housing sales in major cities [1][4][7]. Key Points and Arguments Market Performance - In 2025, the national new housing sales area decreased year-on-year, with expectations for further decline in 2026, primarily due to weak demand in third and fourth-tier cities [1][4]. - First-tier cities require rental yields to exceed mortgage rates for price stabilization; currently, the average rental yield is about 1.8%, while mortgage rates are at least 3%, indicating a potential 30%-40% decline before reaching theoretical price bottoms [1][5]. - Some second-tier cities like Chongqing and Zhuhai show stable housing demand supported by population and economic fundamentals, while cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou continue to see declining transaction volumes [1][7]. Land Market Dynamics - In 2025, land transfer fees in first-tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing increased year-on-year, indicating a stronger land market performance compared to other regions [1][8]. Second-Hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market remains relatively stable, especially in first and second-tier cities, with significant growth in mid-to-high-end properties compared to low-end ones [1][10][11]. Policy Expectations - There is cautious optimism regarding potential policy shifts to support the real estate market, but significant changes are not anticipated. The market recovery is attributed more to seasonal factors rather than substantial policy changes [2][4][13]. - Effective measures to reduce buyer burdens include relaxing purchase restrictions, lowering mortgage rates, and providing subsidies [3][15][16]. Future Price Trends - Without strong market stabilization policies, first-tier cities may experience greater price declines in 2026 compared to previous years [5][13]. - The overall market is still in an adjustment phase, but some cities and product types are showing signs of structural stabilization [13][19]. Supply and Demand Indicators - The supply of new homes is increasingly focused on high-end properties, while the second-hand market caters more to first-time buyers [23][24]. - The demand for low-end properties remains stable, while high-end market demand is softening, indicating a potential disconnect in the market [22][25]. Investment Recommendations - Investors should focus on properties with reasonable rental yields, particularly in stable areas where prices have adjusted favorably [26]. Additional Important Insights - The concentration of sales in major real estate companies, particularly state-owned enterprises, is notable, with a few companies contributing significantly to the market [12]. - The market is characterized by a "dumbbell" structure in transaction volumes, with low and high-end properties performing better than mid-range options [21][22]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future expectations of the real estate market in China, highlighting critical trends, policy implications, and investment strategies.

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and services sectors [7] Core Insights - The real estate market in 2025 showed signs of stabilization, with a reduction in the rate of decline in both supply and demand, although overall sales still decreased year-on-year [1][2] - Structural opportunities exist in core cities and certain second and third-tier cities, with some companies poised to strengthen their competitive advantages [1][50] - The report emphasizes the importance of housing prices as a key indicator for market stabilization, with a focus on observing signals of price stabilization [3][32] Summary by Sections New Homes - In 2025, the total sales area of new homes was 880 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, but the decline was less severe than in 2024 [11] - The number of new homes sold in 60 sample cities fell by 16% year-on-year, a reduction of 5 percentage points compared to 2024 [2] - The inventory of new homes in 80 cities decreased by 5% year-on-year, but the de-stocking period extended to approximately 32 months, the highest level since 2010 [37] Second-Hand Homes - The second-hand home market showed resilience, with total transactions in 2025 reaching approximately 2.39 million units, a slight year-on-year decline of 0.8% [3][26] - The price index for second-hand homes in 70 cities fell by 6.1% year-on-year, but the decline was less than in 2024 [32] - The proportion of second-hand home transactions continued to rise, reaching 66% in 16 key cities, up from 43% in 2021 [31] Cities and Companies - Certain cities, such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Chengdu, showed improvements in both sales volume and prices, indicating potential recovery [4][46] - Leading real estate companies like China Jinmao and China State Construction maintained or increased their market share despite overall market challenges [4][46] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "three good" real estate stocks characterized by good credit, good cities, and good products, such as China Overseas Development and China Resources Land [5][50] - Companies with strong operational capabilities that can manage cash flow during market adjustments are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [5][50] - Local Hong Kong real estate firms are expected to benefit from market recovery, along with property management companies with stable cash flows and dividend advantages [5][50]

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive trend in the real estate sector, with new home transaction area showing a month-on-month increase and a narrowing year-on-year decline [6][5][3] - The mechanical equipment sector, particularly Chipbond Technology, is expected to enter a harvest period in its semiconductor business, driven by high-end products and new offerings [13][14] - China Duty Free Group is deepening its international business layout through the acquisition of DFS's Greater China operations, which is expected to enhance profitability and market position [18][19] Real Estate Sector - New home transaction area increased by 3.8% month-on-month to 167.0 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 32.3%, which is a 2.8 percentage point improvement from the previous week [6] - Second-hand home transaction area rose by 1.1% month-on-month to 180.3 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7%, showing a significant narrowing of the decline by 12.9 percentage points from the previous week [6] - New home inventory decreased by 0.2% month-on-month to 11,296 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 7.4%, while the de-stocking cycle increased to 16.8 months, up by 0.5 months month-on-month [7] - The central bank has lowered the minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans from 50% to 30%, which is expected to support the commercial real estate market [9] Mechanical Equipment Sector - Chipbond Technology's net profit for Q4 2025 is projected to rebound, with a year-on-year increase of 71-84%, and a significant quarter-on-quarter increase of 52% [13][16] - The company has secured over 100 million yuan in orders for its WLP series, indicating strong market recognition and potential growth in the semiconductor sector [14] - The global demand for high-density PCB technology is driving the company's growth, with new product lines aimed at addressing precision bottlenecks in PCB production [15] Retail Sector - China Duty Free Group's acquisition of DFS's Greater China business for up to $395 million is expected to consolidate its market position in Hong Kong and Macau, enhancing profitability [19] - The partnership with LVMH is anticipated to strengthen supply chain and brand advantages, facilitating mutual growth [20] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) estimates for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to reflect ongoing market pressures, but long-term growth is expected as the duty-free market continues to recover [21]

证 券 研 究 报 告 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 3 周） 首开集团发行 7.5 亿私募债，1 月至今 11 城 推荐（维持） 二手房成交同比增长 19% 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 01 月 21 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,199.78 | 0.98 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,699.32 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 3.7% | 7.2% | 8.4% | | 相对表现 | 0.1% | -9.4% | -15.8% ...

Core Insights - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities decreased by 14.2% year-on-year, while the average transaction price per square meter increased by 3.4% [4] - The top three companies in terms of newly added land reserve value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The core 30 cities accounted for 43% of the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities and 72% of the total transaction value [7] Summary by Sections Residential Land Transactions - In 2025, the total area of residential land transactions in 100 cities was 320 million square meters, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.2%. The average transaction price was CNY 5,605 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.4% [4] - For first-tier cities, the supply of residential land was 10.77 million square meters, down 31.2% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 9.66 million square meters, down 29.3% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 35,203 per square meter, up 18.6% year-on-year [4] - In second-tier cities, the supply was 149 million square meters, down 4.5% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 125 million square meters, down 1.0% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 6,420 per square meter, up 3.2% year-on-year [4] - In third-tier cities, the supply was 215 million square meters, down 24.9% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 185 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, and an average price of CNY 3,509 per square meter, down 1.6% year-on-year [4] New Land Reserves - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of value in 2025 were China Overseas Land & Investment (CNY 99.1 billion), China Resources Land (CNY 79.1 billion), and Poly Developments (CNY 78.7 billion) [5] - The companies with the largest newly added land reserves in terms of area were China Overseas Land & Investment (5.11 million square meters), Poly Developments (4.56 million square meters), and China Merchants Shekou (3.32 million square meters) [5] Core 30 Cities Performance - In December 2025, the core 30 cities saw 558 land transactions, with a total area of 39.32 million square meters, down 16.4% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 231.8 billion, down 32.5% year-on-year [6] - For the entire year of 2025, the core 30 cities had 1,970 land transactions, with a total area of 137 million square meters, down 8.7% year-on-year, and a total transaction value of CNY 1.29 trillion, down 2.8% year-on-year [6] - The average transaction price in the core 30 cities was CNY 9,404 per square meter, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [6] - The overall premium rate for land transactions in the core 30 cities was 8.1%, up 2.9 percentage points year-on-year [6]