证券之星消息，12月22日煤炭开采板块较上一交易日上涨0.39%，新大洲A领涨。当日上证指数报收于 3917.36，上涨0.69%。深证成指报收于13332.73，上涨1.47%。煤炭开采板块个股涨跌见下表： | 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000571 | 新大洲A | 6.15 | 10.02% | 89.38万 | | 5.34Z | | 600397 | 江钨装备 | 7.30 | 1.96% | 46.37万 | | 3.33亿 | | 600395 | 盘江股份 | 4.72 | 1.51% | 23.30万 | | 1.10亿 | | 600403 | 大有能源 | 7.04 | 1.29% | 28.98万 | | 2.03亿 | | 600157 | 永泰能源 | 1.62 | 1.25% | 437.87万 | | 7.09亿 | | 600121 | 郑州煤电 | 4.31 | 0.94% | 31.79万 | | 1.36亿 | | 601 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for the coal sector, recommending a focus on key players such as China Shenhua Energy, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and China Coal Energy, while also keeping an eye on Yanzhou Coal Mining and Jinneng Holding [3]. Core Insights - The coal price is expected to stabilize, with a bottom range projected between 680-700 RMB/ton. The demand is currently at a median level compared to the past five years, and port inventories are showing a downward trend. The report anticipates a rebound in coal prices to over 800 RMB/ton by November [3][4]. - The coal sector is believed to have reached a cyclical bottom in Q2 2025, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics. A new upward cycle for coal and downstream thermal power demand is expected to begin in the second half of 2026 [3][4]. Summary by Sections Coal Price Trends - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 721 RMB/ton, down 42 RMB/ton (-5.5%) from the previous week. The price of Q5000 coal at the same port is 620 RMB/ton, also down 42 RMB/ton (-6.3%) [6][12]. - Domestic coal prices are generally declining, while international prices are mixed, with Newcastle coal prices showing a slight increase [41][49]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic coal supply remains stable, with imports expected to decrease. The report notes that the demand for coal is improving significantly during the off-peak season, with Q3 profits anticipated to rebound [3][4]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of coking coal at three major ports is 279.7 million tons, down 7.1% from the previous week [58]. Long-term Contracts and Pricing - The annual long-term contract price for Q5500 coal at Northern Ports is 694 RMB/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10 RMB/ton (1.5%) [34]. - The report indicates that the long-term contract prices for coking coal have remained stable compared to the previous week [59]. Key Market Events - The report highlights significant developments in coal transportation infrastructure in Inner Mongolia, which is expected to enhance coal logistics efficiency and capacity [81]. - It also notes that coal prices have continued to decline in early December, with various types of coal experiencing price drops [81].

Group 1: Price Outlook - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to catalyze a rebound in coal prices, with a stable increase anticipated in 2026. In 2025, coal prices experienced a low-to-high trend, with the lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping to 610 CNY/ton in June and rebounding to 813 CNY/ton by December 1 [4][24] - The annual price range for China's coking coal index fluctuated between 1100 and 1570 CNY/ton in 2025, with a significant increase of 37.14% from the lowest point in June to the highest in November [4][21] Group 2: Domestic Supply - The "anti-involution" policy will promote industry self-discipline and stricter safety regulations, potentially leading to a decline in domestic coal production due to the exit of pre-registered increased capacity in 2026 [5][30] - The National Energy Administration's notification in July 2025 mandated that coal mines' annual output must not exceed announced capacity, contributing to a tightening of coal supply [5][31] - The coal import volume in 2025 is expected to decrease, with a total of 432 million tons imported from January to November, marking an 11% year-on-year decline [5][34] Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Thermal power is expected to play a stabilizing role, with resilient demand anticipated during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The cumulative thermal power generation from January to October 2025 was 52130.5 billion kWh, showing a slight decline of 0.19% year-on-year [6][45] - The development of AI computing power is projected to drive significant growth in new electricity demand, with electricity consumption in the power sector expected to increase due to sustained demand for thermal coal [6][59] Group 4: Market Value Management - The implementation of market value management assessments is expected to weaken industry cycles, with high dividend payouts reflecting mid-to-long-term investment value. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has encouraged cash dividends and improved investor returns since late 2023 [7][60] - Major coal companies are responding to initiatives to enhance shareholder returns, with companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy committing to high dividend payouts, with ratios expected to remain above 65% [7][61] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to lead to self-discipline in the industry and a stable increase in coal prices. The coal sector is viewed as a stable high-dividend investment, suitable for providing solid returns [9][64] - Recommended stocks include leading coal companies with strong resource endowments and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua A+H, China Coal Energy A+H, and Yanzhou Coal Mining A+H [9][64]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to promote industry self-discipline and capacity verification, leading to a stable increase in coal prices, with the coal industry transitioning towards high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - The coal price is anticipated to recover from its lows, with a projected stable increase in 2026. In 2025, coal prices are expected to fluctuate, with the lowest price for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal dropping to 610 CNY/ton in mid-June and recovering to 813 CNY/ton by December 1 [2]. - The China coking coal price index is projected to fluctuate between 1100-1570 CNY/ton in 2025, with a significant recovery of 37.14% from its lowest point [2]. Group 2: Supply Side Dynamics - The "anti-involution" policy aims to break low-price competition and shift the industry focus from scale expansion to quality improvement. The National Energy Administration has initiated capacity verification for coal mines in several provinces, which may lead to a decline in production due to stricter safety regulations [3]. - The coal import tax reinstated on January 1, 2024, and the emphasis on controlling low-quality coal imports are expected to reduce the volume of imported coal, with a notable 11% decrease in coal and lignite imports from January to November 2025 [3]. Group 3: Demand Side Insights - Thermal power generation is expected to remain resilient, with a projected increase in demand driven by AI computing power, which is anticipated to significantly boost electricity consumption in data centers [4]. - The cumulative thermal power generation from January to October 2025 was 52,130.5 billion kWh, showing a slight year-on-year decline, but thermal power is expected to play a crucial role in meeting electricity demand during peak periods [4]. Group 4: Dividend and Investment Outlook - The coal industry is witnessing a shift towards higher dividend payouts, with companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal aiming to maintain or increase their cash dividend ratios, reflecting a broader trend of enhancing shareholder returns [5]. - The introduction of market value management assessments and the emphasis on cash dividends are expected to strengthen the investment value of coal companies, with a focus on stable and sustainable returns [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, cost advantages, and stable dividend policies, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, while also considering companies with growth potential like Guanghui Energy and Huayang Co [6].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" for several companies including China Coal Energy, China Shenhua, and Jinneng Holding Coal Industry [3][8]. Core Viewpoints - Australia's electricity demand is projected to double by 2050, necessitating a twofold increase in coal power capacity to ensure supply during the transition period. Total electricity demand is expected to rise from 205 billion kWh to 389 billion kWh by the fiscal year 2049-50, with significant contributions from high-energy industries such as industrial electrification and data centers [2][3]. - Current coal power capacity in Australia has decreased from approximately 30,000 MW to about 21,000 MW, with aging units averaging over 40 years of operation. Non-scheduled outages are expected to reach 7% of total operating time from 2027 to 2035, indicating a critical need for coal power to maintain grid stability during the transition to renewable energy [3][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report highlights a significant decline in Australia's coal power capacity and the urgent need for expansion to meet future electricity demands. The transition to renewable energy sources is progressing but faces substantial gaps in implementation [2][3][8]. Key Companies - Recommended companies include: - Yancoal Australia (Buy) - Jinneng Holding Coal Industry (Buy) - China Coal Energy (Buy) - China Shenhua (Buy) - Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (Buy) - Huainan Mining (Buy) - China Qinfa (Buy) [3][8]. Price Trends - Coal prices have shown mixed trends, with Newcastle coal prices at $105 per ton, down by $2.75 per ton (-2.55%), while European ARA coal prices increased slightly to $96.21 per ton, up by $0.64 per ton (+0.67%) [1][3][36].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with expectations for gradual recovery to a reasonable price level of 750 RMB/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increased demand due to seasonal factors [1][2]. Group 1: Coal Price Trends - As of December 19, the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price is 703 RMB/ton, down 50 RMB/ton from the previous period, while the Guangzhou port price is 780 RMB/ton, having reached the estimated target price range of 800-860 RMB/ton [1][2]. - The current price has fallen below the coal-electricity profit-sharing level of 750 RMB/ton, indicating potential for price recovery [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The decline in coal prices is attributed to ongoing supply tightening due to regulatory actions against overproduction and safety inspections, alongside rising demand as the energy consumption season begins [2]. - The demand surge is driven by early heating needs in northern regions due to cold weather and increased industrial production as the year-end approaches [2]. Group 3: Policy Impact - The release of the "Key Areas for Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal" policy emphasizes the shift towards higher value coal products and indicates that coal investment logic is increasingly driven by policy rather than just fundamental factors [3]. Group 4: Investment Logic - The price recovery process for thermal coal is expected to follow four stages, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching the profit-sharing level for coal and power companies [4]. - The target price for coking coal is influenced by its price ratio to thermal coal, with specific target prices set based on this relationship [4]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The coal sector presents dual investment logic: cyclical elasticity due to low historical prices and stable dividends from companies maintaining high dividend payouts [5]. - Key stocks to consider include those benefiting from cyclical recovery (e.g., Jinko Coal, Yanzhou Coal) and those with strong dividend potential (e.g., China Shenhua, Zhongmei Energy) [5].

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry is currently in the early stages of a new upward cycle, with a resonance between fundamentals and policies, making it an opportune time to invest in the coal sector at lower prices [5] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) is reported at 711 RMB/ton, a decrease of 42 RMB/ton week-on-week [2] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1700 RMB/ton, an increase of 50 RMB/ton week-on-week [3] - International thermal coal prices have also seen declines, with Newcastle NEWC5500 at 75.0 USD/ton, down 2.0 USD/ton week-on-week [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The utilization rate of thermal coal mines is at 90.4%, down 2.1 percentage points week-on-week, while the utilization rate for coking coal mines is at 86.62%, up 1.3 percentage points [3] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces has decreased by 16.60 thousand tons/day (-4.23%), while consumption in coastal provinces has increased by 4.70 thousand tons/day (+2.35%) [5] - Chemical coal consumption has increased by 2.58 thousand tons/day (+0.35%) [4] Inventory and Utilization Rates - Coastal provinces have seen a decrease in coal inventory by 21.80 thousand tons, a 0.63% drop week-on-week, while inland provinces' inventory has decreased by 64.20 thousand tons, a 0.64% drop [4] - The clinker utilization rate in the cement industry is reported at 37.7%, down 1.3 percentage points week-on-week [4] Investment Strategy - The coal sector is characterized by high performance, cash flow, and dividends, with a strong long-term outlook due to supply constraints and rising costs [7] - The current market conditions present a high investment value in coal assets, with a focus on companies with stable operations and strong earnings [6][7] - Recommended companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, among others, highlighting their strong fundamentals and growth potential [7]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Viewpoints - Coking coal prices are rebounding due to seasonal restocking in downstream sectors, indicating a strong short-term outlook for coking coal prices [3][7] - Attention is required on the turning point of thermal coal port inventories, as prices are expected to stabilize after this point [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Recommendations and Targets - Current coking coal prices are supported by seasonal restocking, suggesting investment opportunities in the coking coal sector [3][60] - Thermal coal requires close monitoring of port inventory turning points, with potential price stabilization expected post-turning point. Recommended stocks include China Shenhua (601088, Buy), China Coal Energy (601898, Buy), Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry (601225, Buy), and Jincheng Anthracite Mining Group (601001, Buy) [3][60] Industry Fundamentals - Coking coal inventory trends show a shift from midstream to downstream, with sample steel mills' coking coal inventory at 8.05 million tons (up 1.30% MoM) and independent coking plants at 8.81 million tons (down 0.22% MoM) [7] - As of December 19, coking coal futures closed at 1,108 RMB/ton (up 9.00% MoM) [7] - Thermal coal demand remains weak, with port inventories at seasonal highs affecting railway shipment volumes [7] - The supply side shows coal mine operating rates at low levels, with 462 thermal coal mines operating at 90.4% capacity (down 2.1 percentage points MoM) [7][27] Price Trends and Valuation - The price ratio of coking coal to thermal coal has significantly rebounded, with the ratio at 1.40 as of December 19, compared to 1.20 the previous week [7] - The coal industry index PB is at 1.44 times, indicating a historical median valuation level [7][56]

《煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依 旧—行业周报》-2025.12.14 《重视煤价四段轮推断，稳煤价依旧 —行业周报》-2025.12.7 《煤价第四目标上穿过程兑现，稳价 逻辑依旧—行业周报》-2025.11.30 张绪成（分析师） 程镱（分析师） zhangxucheng@kysec.cn 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 21 日 重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 ——行业周报 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究报告 证书编号：S0790520020003 chengyi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525090001 本周要闻回顾：重视煤价合理才是常态，稳煤价逻辑依旧 动力煤方面：动力煤价格小跌，截至 12 月 19 日，秦港 Q5500 动力煤平仓价为 703 元/吨，环比下降 50 元/吨，广州港价格为 780 元/吨，前期已经完成了我们估算的 第四目标价格区间，即 800-860 元区间。目前回调至煤电盈利均分的 750 元价格以 下，我们预计未 ...

行 业 及 产 业 煤炭/ 煤炭开采 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 联系人 施佳瑜 A0230521040004 shijy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 21 日 冷空气影响仍存，成本支撑下供给 预计收紧，预计煤价有望企稳 看好 ——煤炭行业周报（2025.12.13-2025.12.20） 本期投资提示： ⚫ 动力煤方面，截至 12 月 19 日，据中国煤炭市场网，秦皇岛港口 Q4500、Q5000、 Q5500 动力煤现货价收报 506、600、703 元/吨，均环比下跌 42 元/吨。供给端，据 中国煤炭市场网，环渤海四港区本周日均调入量 163.96 万吨，环比上周减少 17.5 万 吨，同 ...