Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus**: Traditional Materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 - **Preferred Commodities**: Gold, copper, and aluminum are favored due to supportive macro and micro factors [1][8] Core Insights Copper - **Demand Growth**: Strong demand growth expected from Energy Storage Systems (ESS), with suppliers reporting over 50% demand growth for 2026 [2] - **Supply Disruptions**: Anticipated widening of the global copper supply deficit due to three major supply disruptions [3] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies like Zijin Mining and CMOC are highlighted for their expected 10-11% copper volume CAGR from 2025 to 2028 [3] Aluminum - **Supply Constraints**: Expected supply tightness due to potential shutdowns and delays in production restarts [4] - **Margin Expansion**: Anticipated sustainable margin expansion for aluminum smelters due to increasing demand and limited supply [4] - **Key Picks**: Chalco, Hongqiao, and China Shenhuo are identified as key investment opportunities in the aluminum sector [4] Gold - **Supportive Macro Environment**: Continued support for gold prices expected from US rate cuts and ongoing purchases by ETFs and central banks [5] - **Volume Growth**: Zijin Gold International is projected to achieve 30% volume growth in 2026, making it a key investment pick [5] Steel - **Production Cuts**: Limited production cuts expected in 2026, with demand anticipated to decline by over 2% [6] - **Export Quota Speculation**: Market expectations are rising regarding potential export quota systems in China [6] Coal - **Supply and Demand Dynamics**: Sufficient supply amid lukewarm demand is expected to pressure coal prices, with average prices projected at approximately Rmb720/t in 2026 [7] - **Renewable Energy Impact**: Anticipated continued market share gain for renewable power, leading to a slight drop in thermal coal demand [7] Additional Insights - **Market Ratings**: Various companies in the materials sector have been rated with Overweight (OW), Equal-weight (EW), and Underweight (UW) based on their expected performance and market conditions [9][12][13] - **Price Targets**: Adjustments to price targets for several companies have been made based on updated commodity price forecasts and market conditions [19][20] - **EPS Changes**: Significant changes in EPS estimates for various companies, reflecting adjustments in market expectations and commodity price forecasts [18][19] Conclusion - The outlook for traditional materials in Asia Pacific for 2026 is bullish, particularly for gold, copper, and aluminum, driven by strong demand and supply constraints. Investment opportunities are identified in specific companies within these sectors, while challenges remain in steel and coal markets.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 锰硅周报12.08-12.12 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 本周观点： 从成本端来看，硅锰合金成本支撑力度依旧较强。虽焦炭价格小幅回落，但核心原料锰矿价格保持坚挺，其中高度氧 化矿涨幅尤为显著，成本端坚挺格局有效托底合金价格。 从供应端来看，期货层面，硅锰盘面近期仍维持震荡走 势，多呈现"开盘拉涨，尾盘回落"特点，但上行空间有限。现货层面，工厂零售报价意愿较低，多捂货不出，等待 盘面冲高后再出货，由此厂家库存压力有所抬升。北方地区合金厂近期新增硅锰产能稳定运行，后续将缓慢出铁，届 时供应压力进一步加大；南方地区等地受枯水期电价上涨带来的成本抬升影响，多数厂家选择避峰减产，减产企业较 多。其余地区合金厂开工维持低位，传统生产淡季出现减产情况。 从需求端来看，12月河 ...

Group 1 - The conference marks the 11th International Marine Anti-Corrosion and Anti-Fouling Forum and Marine Key Materials Conference, focusing on the development of marine engineering equipment and technology [2] - The event will feature a comprehensive agenda including keynote speeches, specialized forums, and technology showcases, aimed at promoting high-quality development of marine new productive forces [2] - Key participants include leading enterprises such as China Shipbuilding, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, and China Petroleum, highlighting the collaboration between academia and industry [2][3] Group 2 - The organizing committee includes prominent figures such as academicians from the Chinese Academy of Engineering and directors from various research institutes, ensuring a high level of expertise [4][5] - The agenda includes multiple specialized forums focusing on marine functional materials, corrosion protection technologies, and the latest innovations in marine engineering [7][8] - The conference will also address the latest demands in traditional and emerging marine industries, including shipbuilding, marine oil and gas, and clean energy [10][12] Group 3 - The event will feature a youth forum aimed at encouraging young scientists to present their research and receive expert feedback, fostering innovation in marine materials [11] - Special sessions will be organized to connect large terminal units with industry needs, covering topics such as long-lasting anti-fouling solutions and advanced coating technologies [15] - Registration fees are set at ¥3500 for enterprises, ¥2800 for universities, and ¥1800 for students, with discounts available for group registrations [16][18]

12月12日，由中国钢铁工业协会、中国汽车工业协会主办的2025首届汽车用钢供需座谈会在江苏 省无锡市召开。 会议现场 工信部原材料司钢铁处处长文刚出席会议。中国钢铁工业协会党委常委、副会长骆铁军，中国汽 车工业协会副秘书长陈士华出席会议并讲话。钢协副秘书长石洪卫主持会议。钢协副秘书长姜晓 东、赵金奎出席会议。来自行业协会、钢铁企业、汽车企业等领域的近百名代表出席会议。 文刚出席会议 以下文章来源于中国冶金报社 ，作者中国冶金报社 中国冶金报社 . 点击"关注"中国冶金报社微信公众号，每天为您提供钢铁行业权威的信息资讯，让您的阅读更便捷、更 专业！ 官方网站:中国钢铁新闻网(www.csteelnews.com)。 骆铁军呼吁钢企响应国家反"内卷式"恶性竞争，维护行业利益和消费者利益，同时希望得到汽车 主机厂和汽车行业的认可与响应。 陈士华 陈士华在讲话中表示，汽车、钢铁行业是国民经济重要的产业，中国钢铁工业生产规模连续28年 位居全球第一，中国汽车工业产销规模连续16年位居全球第一。两个行业在全球的占有率也较 高，钢铁占比超过一半，汽车占比超过1/3。当前，汽车行业发展迅速，但也面临一些挑战，如内 需不足及 ...

Group 1 - The steel sector experienced a strong upward trend on December 15, with major stocks like Fushun Special Steel and Taiyuan Iron & Steel hitting the daily limit, indicating a positive market response to new export license policies [2][4][6] - The new steel export license policy is expected to suppress ordinary steel exports in the short term while promoting a shift towards high-value-added products in the long term, benefiting leading companies in special steel and high-end stainless steel [2][9] - The steel industry index rose to 8939.99 points with a 2% increase, and trading volume reached 6.543 billion yuan, showing a significant increase in market activity compared to the previous trading day [4] Group 2 - The new export license policy, which includes 300 steel products, marks a return to a management system that was abolished in 2009, indicating a new phase in domestic steel export management [7][8] - The policy aims to enhance quality control over exported steel products, potentially leading to a surge in exports before the policy takes effect in January 2026 [9] - Recent housing policies, such as interest subsidies for home purchases, are expected to positively influence the steel industry by boosting market sentiment, although real estate investment has seen a significant decline [10][11]

Group 1 - The special steel concept index rose by 1.51%, ranking third among concept sectors, with 32 stocks increasing in value, including Fushun Special Steel and Taiyuan Iron & Steel, which hit the daily limit [1][2] - The top gainers in the special steel sector included Tunan Co., Steel Research High-Tech, and Fangda Special Steel, with increases of 7.18%, 7.12%, and 4.05% respectively [1][2] - The stocks with the largest declines included Fuan Co., Wuzhou New Spring, and Baosteel, which fell by 4.56%, 3.67%, and 1.95% respectively [1][2] Group 2 - The special steel sector saw a net inflow of 302 million yuan from main funds, with 16 stocks receiving net inflows, and 5 stocks exceeding 30 million yuan in net inflow [2][3] - Taiyuan Iron & Steel led the net inflow with 283 million yuan, followed by Fushun Special Steel and Steel Research High-Tech with net inflows of 208 million yuan and 103 million yuan respectively [2][3] - The net inflow ratios for Taiyuan Iron & Steel, Fushun Special Steel, and Xining Special Steel were 41.27%, 22.92%, and 18.52% respectively [3] Group 3 - The trading volume and turnover rates for the top stocks in the special steel sector showed significant activity, with Taiyuan Iron & Steel having a turnover rate of 2.50% and a price increase of 9.95% [3][4] - Fushun Special Steel recorded a price increase of 10.00% with a turnover rate of 8.18%, indicating strong investor interest [3][4] - Other notable performers included Steel Research High-Tech with a 7.12% increase and a turnover rate of 13.69% [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The steel sector showed mixed performance on December 15, with the overall sector rising by 0.17%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.55% and the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.1% [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) led the gains in the steel sector with a closing price of 4.99, up by 3.74% and a trading volume of 1.0836 million shares, amounting to 532 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers included Shougang Group (首钢股份) with a closing price of 4.39, up by 2.33%, and Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) at 5.49, up by 2.23% [1] - Conversely, Baosteel (宝钢股份) experienced a decline of 1.95%, closing at 7.05, with a trading volume of 1.2951 million shares and a turnover of 922.6 million yuan [2] Group 2: Capital Flow - The steel sector saw a net outflow of 12.9535 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 14.5 million yuan [2] - Hualing Steel (华菱钢铁) had a significant net inflow from institutional investors of 63.53 million yuan, while it faced a net outflow of 47.65 million yuan from speculative funds [3] - Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) also saw a net inflow of 42.63 million yuan from institutional investors, despite a net outflow of 46.51 million yuan from speculative funds [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that steel demand is expected to gradually bottom out, and the supply side is beginning to show signs of market-driven clearance, with a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals [1] - The report indicates a decrease in demand and inventory levels, with apparent consumption of five major steel varieties at 8.397 million tons, down 2.83% week-on-week and 4.76% year-on-year [2] - The production of five major steel varieties was 8.062 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 22.7 thousand tons, while total inventory stood at 13.32 million tons, down 33.5% week-on-week [2] Group 2 - The average gross profit for rebar was 169.8 CNY/ton, an increase of 22.2 CNY/ton week-on-week, while hot-rolled coil showed a gross profit of -30.2 CNY/ton, a decrease of 17.8 CNY/ton [3] - Approximately 65% of steel companies are currently operating at a loss, and the market-driven clearance of supply is beginning to occur [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released a plan to continue implementing production reduction policies, which is expected to promote a dynamic balance between supply and demand [4] Group 3 - The long-term outlook for the steel industry includes an increase in industry concentration and a focus on high-quality development, benefiting companies with product structure and cost advantages [5] - Key recommendations include companies like Baosteel (600019), Hualing Steel (000932), and Shougang (000959), which have leading technology and product structures [5] - The report also highlights the potential of upstream resource companies such as Hebei Steel Resources (000923) and Dazhong Mining (001203) in the context of demand recovery [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Enterprise ETF (159959) opened at 1.530 yuan, experiencing a slight decline of 0.33% on December 15 [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Central Enterprise ETF's major holdings include companies such as 澜起科技 (Lianqi Technology), 中芯国际 (SMIC), and 海康威视 (Hikvision), with respective opening declines of 2.02%, 1.41%, and 0.71% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the 中证央企结构调整指数 (CSI Central Enterprise Structural Adjustment Index), managed by 银华基金管理股份有限公司 (Yinhua Fund Management) [1] - Since its establishment on October 22, 2018, the ETF has achieved a return of 53.63%, while its return over the past month has been -3.61% [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Movements - Notable stock movements within the ETF include 国电南瑞 (Guodian NARI) increasing by 0.34%, 招商银行 (China Merchants Bank) remaining unchanged, and 宝钢股份 (Baosteel) decreasing by 0.56% [1] - Other stocks such as 中国神华 (China Shenhua) and 中国建筑 (China State Construction) also remained unchanged, while 长安汽车 (Changan Automobile) and 中国电信 (China Telecom) saw declines of 0.77% and 0.15%, respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights increased volatility in copper and aluminum prices, with a focus on the continuation of steel policies [1]. - It emphasizes the low inventory levels of copper, which may lead to sustained high volatility in prices [6]. - The macroeconomic environment is supportive for copper demand, driven by domestic market strength [6]. - For aluminum, the report notes a mixed macro outlook and stresses the importance of fundamental support for prices [6]. - The report discusses the impact of U.S. monetary policy on gold prices, indicating a slight recovery in investment demand [6]. - It also mentions the rising prices of tungsten and the weak supply-demand dynamics in the rare earth market [6]. Summary by Sections Copper - LME copper and SHFE copper prices were reported at 11,816 and 94,080 USD/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 1.5% and 1.4% [6]. - The copper concentrate treatment charge was reported at -43.0 USD/dry ton, indicating tight supply [6]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 64.54%, down 1.87 percentage points week-on-week [6]. Aluminum - LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices were reported at 2,846 and 22,170 USD/ton respectively, with weekly decreases of 0.7% and 0.8% [6]. - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was 61.8%, reflecting a slight decline [6]. - Social inventory levels for aluminum ingots and rods showed a decrease, indicating some demand resilience [6]. Gold - SHFE gold and COMEX gold prices were reported at 970.7 CNY/gram and 4,329.8 USD/ounce, with weekly increases of 1.0% and 2.4% [6]. - The SPDR Gold ETF's net holdings increased by 2.9 tons, suggesting a slight recovery in investment preference for gold [6]. Small Metals - Tungsten prices rose to 373,000 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 6.0% [6]. - Rare earth prices showed a decline, with market supply growth slowing down [6]. - Antimony prices decreased to 172,400 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 1.3% [6]. Steel - SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at 3,060 and 3,232 CNY/ton respectively, with weekly declines of 3.1% and 2.7% [7]. - The total inventory of steel products decreased by 33.5% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [7]. - Recent policies have aimed at normalizing steel exports, which may reshape supply-demand dynamics [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with rich copper resources, such as Zijin Mining and China Nonferrous Mining [10]. - For gold, it recommends companies like Chifeng Jilong Gold and Shandong Gold [10]. - In the aluminum sector, it highlights companies like Shenhuo and China Aluminum [10]. - For small metals, it points to rare earth companies and tungsten producers [10]. - In the steel sector, it emphasizes companies with strong product structures and environmental capabilities [10].