Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong paper industry stocks experienced a volatile increase, with notable gains in several companies [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Chenming Paper (01812.HK) rose over 4% [1] - Sun Paper (02002.HK) increased by more than 3% [1] - Nine Dragons Paper (02689.HK) and Lee & Man Paper (02314.HK) both saw gains exceeding 2.5% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The price of pulp has declined, resulting in insufficient cost support and weak paper prices. The expected trend of offset printing paper next week is generally stable with a slight downward bias [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Price**: The average tax - inclusive price of 70g offset paper enterprises is 5,028.6 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive price of 157g coated paper enterprises is 5,675.0 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous period [5][32]. - **Supply**: Offset paper production is 195,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons or 3.0% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 54.6%, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous period. Coated paper production is 77,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons or 1.3% from the previous period, with a capacity utilization rate of 56.6%, an increase of 0.4% from the previous period [5][13][19]. - **Demand**: The release of publishing tender orders is limited, and sporadic low prices suppress market expectations. The release of autumn publishing orders for offset paper is slow, and social orders are still sluggish. The overall terminal consumption fails to meet expectations, and the downstream printing factory's operating level is not high [5][6]. - **Cost**: The average tax - inclusive spot price of broad - leaf pulp is 4,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of coniferous pulp is 6,079 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.2% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of natural pulp is 5,043 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.8% from the previous period. The average tax - inclusive spot price of chemimechanical pulp is 3,900 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [5][37]. - **Strategy**: The expected trend of offset printing paper next week is generally stable with a slight downward bias [7]. Core Logic Analysis - **Supply**: The profitability of the offset paper industry is still low, with factory conversion occurring, and the market supply tends to be stable. The profitability of the coated paper industry is relatively stable, and other factories mostly schedule production as planned, with little change in capacity utilization, which remains at a low level [6][19]. - **Demand**: The release of autumn publishing orders for offset paper is slow, social orders are still sluggish, overall terminal consumption fails to meet expectations, the downstream printing factory's operating level is not high, and users' consumption of base paper inventory is slow, with no obvious intention to stock up in large quantities. Under the impact of electronic media, social demand for coated paper is still weak, and users mostly make rigid purchases [6][23]. - **Cost**: Rumors of low foreign prices for broad - leaf pulp are spreading again, intensifying the bearish sentiment among industry players and putting pressure on the pulp market trend. The decline in pulp prices has led to a stable and slightly stronger gross profit margin for coated paper [6][19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Offset Paper Supply**: The production volume has decreased, and the capacity utilization rate has declined. The profitability of offset paper has improved due to the decline in pulp raw material prices [13]. - **Offset Paper Inventory**: The overall on - site inventory has continued to decline slightly but remains at a high level in recent years. The inventory of offset paper production enterprises has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous period [14][16]. - **Coated Paper Supply**: The production volume has increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate has increased slightly. The gross profit margin of coated paper is stable and slightly stronger due to the decline in pulp prices [19]. - **Coated Paper Inventory**: The on - site inventory of coated paper has decreased slightly. The inventory of coated paper production enterprises has decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous period [20][23]. - **Paper Prices**: The average prices of offset paper and coated paper enterprises have remained stable [32]. - **Imported Pulp Prices**: The prices of coniferous pulp, broad - leaf pulp, and natural pulp have declined, while the price of chemimechanical pulp has remained unchanged [37].

Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·石忆宁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0022533 日期：2025年7月6日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：本周双胶纸市场价格延续跌势。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为5125元/吨，环比下跌0.16%，本 周跌幅环比收窄0.42个百分点；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4791元/吨，环比下跌0.08%，本周跌幅环比收窄0.46个百分点。影响市 场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，月初多数纸厂报盘趋稳，个别压力仍存，出货价格小幅下调；第二，经销商出货节奏仍然偏 ...

李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 供应方面，因近两年全球新增阔叶浆产能较多，而针叶浆由于有老旧装置退出，产能不增反降，针阔叶浆供应端逐渐分化，导致去 年以来针阔价差持续拉大。2025 年上半年木浆进口量同比增加，其中阔叶浆进口量累计同比增幅较大。国内下半年也有较多纸浆产 能投产，在国产浆替代下，木浆进口量预期有所回落。不过由于当前港口去库节奏较慢，国内纸浆港库水平持续处在近几年高位， 整体来看下半年纸浆供应压力仍存，阔叶浆宽松程度仍将高于针叶浆…… 宏观压制需求，浆价底部震荡 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 纸浆半年报 2025-7-6 宏观压制需求，浆价底部震荡 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the growth of industrial enterprises in Shandong Province, with a total of 40,800 enterprises reported in the first quarter of 2025, marking an increase of 1,470 enterprises compared to the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.74% and accounting for 7.86% of the national total [1][3] - The report mentions various listed companies in the industrial sector, including Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (600188), New Trend Energy (600777), and others, indicating a focus on potential investment opportunities within these firms [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and organized by Zhiyan Consulting, emphasizing the credibility of the information presented [3] Group 2 - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research reports, business plans, feasibility studies, and customized services, which are essential for informed investment decisions [2] - The report titled "2025-2031 China Industrial Cloud Industry Market Deep Assessment and Investment Opportunity Forecast" suggests a forward-looking analysis of the industrial cloud sector, indicating potential growth areas for investors [1]

Report on the Investment Rating of the Industry No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - This week, the market price of offset printing paper decreased slightly. In the short term, the supply side will remain stable next week. Although the pick - up of publication orders will support paper prices, social orders are in the off - season, and there may be individual price cuts to promote orders. It is expected that the weekly average price of the offset printing paper market will decline next week. In the long - term, the overall capacity of the offset printing paper industry is still in excess, and a bearish view is maintained [5][53]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Overview No specific overview content is provided in the content other than the title. 2. Market Trends - This week, the 70g wood - pulp high - white offset printing paper market average price was 5,133 yuan/ton, a 0.58% week - on - week decrease, and the trend changed from stable to downward. The 70g wood - pulp natural - white offset printing paper market average price was 4,795 yuan/ton, a 26 yuan/ton decline or 0.54% decrease, and the decline rate increased by 0.15 percentage points week - on - week [5][53]. - In the spot market, prices of some paper types in Shandong and Guangdong markets remained stable, while prices of some decreased. In terms of cost - profit, pre - tax and after - tax gross margins changed slightly [12]. 3. Supply - Demand Data Supply - In 2024, the domestic offset printing paper industry's capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 57% [21]. - This week, the domestic offset printing paper industry's output was 165,100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.0% [26]. Demand - From the perspective of terminal consumption, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down in recent years [49]. Inventory - This Thursday, the offset printing paper inventory days decreased by 0.79% compared with last Thursday, and the trend changed from increasing to decreasing. In terms of inventory days, Central China > East China > South China; social inventory pressure is higher than enterprise inventory [7][44]. Import and Export - In April, the domestic offset printing paper import volume was 15,000 tons, and the export volume was 74,400 tons [38]. 4. Market Judgment - **Review**: This week, the market price of offset printing paper decreased slightly. The reasons include stable supply, cautious purchasing by dealers, slow consumption of downstream base paper, and weakening cost support [5][53]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, supply will be stable next week. Although publication orders will support paper prices, social orders are in the off - season, and prices may decline. From the pulp market perspective, there is insufficient positive support from the cost side. In the long - term, the overall capacity of the offset printing paper industry is in excess, and a bearish view is maintained [5][53]. 5. Industry News - The weekly enterprise inventory of domestic offset printing paper decreased this week, and the start - up load rate was 49.97%, a 0.68 - percentage - point increase from last week [7][8]. - Arauco in Chile announced a new round of wood - pulp export quotations: coniferous pulp Silver Star at $720/ton, natural - color pulp Venus at $620/ton, and no quotation for hardwood pulp Star [8]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange solicited public opinions on the futures contracts, option contracts, and relevant business rules of offset printing paper [8].

证券代码：000488 200488 证券简称：ST 晨鸣 ST 晨鸣 B 公告编号：2025-046 山东晨鸣纸业集团股份有限公司 关于诉讼的进展公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 山东晨鸣纸业集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）分别于 2020 年 8 月 19 日、 2020 年 8 月 22 日、2022 年 6 月 21 日、2023 年 8 月 19 日及 2024 年 4 月 26 日在巨潮 资讯网（www.cninfo.com.cn）披露了《提示性公告》（公告编号：2020-080）、《关于 诉讼、仲裁进展的补充公告》（公告编号：2020-083）、《关于诉讼的进展公告》（公告 编号：2022-053、2023-062、2024-031），披露了公司与 Arjowiggins HKK2 Limited（以 下简称"HKK2"）成立的合资公司阿尔诺维根斯晨鸣特种纸有限公司纠纷案件涉及的 清盘呈请最新进展。 2025 年 5 月 15 日，HKK2 通过传票形式向法院提出申请（以下简称"呈请人传 票"），请求解除对清盘呈请的搁置并 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Insights - The light industry sector shows significant differentiation in 2025H1, with new consumption sectors like millet economy and personal care performing well, while traditional industries like home furnishings and paper face pressure [1] - The light industry manufacturing sector has a year-to-date decline of 0.89%, ranking 14th among 31 Shenwan primary industries, but has outperformed the CSI 300 index with a relative return of +3.08% [1] Group 2: New Consumption Trends - The rise of self-indulgent consumption is noted, with high growth potential in sectors driven by emotional value, such as national trend culture and technology-enabled scenarios [2] - Traditional companies are adapting to high-growth trends by leveraging their channel and supply chain advantages to achieve rapid growth in new business areas [2] Group 3: Home Furnishings Sector - The home furnishings sector faces pressure from tariffs, but retail sales growth is expected to exceed 20% due to national subsidies [3] - The opening pace of new stores is slowing, with companies adopting strategies to capture fragmented customer demand [3] Group 4: Export Chain Dynamics - The impact of tariffs on the export chain is limited, with companies accelerating exports to the U.S. and experiencing a rise in shipping costs [4] - Future tariff impacts are anticipated to be minimal due to capacity release in Vietnam and cost pass-through strategies [4] Group 5: Paper Industry Insights - The paper industry is in a capacity expansion cycle, with fixed asset investment in 2024 expected to grow by 18.5% year-on-year [5] - The cost dynamics are shifting, with pulp prices peaking and stabilizing supply-demand for cultural paper [5] Group 6: Packaging Sector Overview - The metal packaging market is experiencing low capital expenditure and profitability, but industry consolidation is expected to improve margins [6] - Yutong Technology has established a global presence with over 40 production bases, which may mitigate tariff risks [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The introduction of offset printing paper futures and options precisely meets the risk management needs of China's cultural paper market, improves the full - cycle risk management system of the pulp and paper industry, and enhances the quality and efficiency of the commodity futures market in serving the real economy. After the listing of offset printing paper futures and options, they are expected to become the "price anchor" of the industry, providing tools for price discovery and risk control for enterprises, helping to form an open, transparent, and authoritative market price, and improving the pricing efficiency of spot trading to guide enterprises to scientifically and reasonably formulate production plans [92]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Spot prices oscillated and rebounded, and the basis widened (no detailed content provided) [1]. - Futures prices rose, and the monthly spread turned to contango (no detailed content provided) [5]. 3.2 Rubber Market Supply and Demand - The output of rubber - producing countries steadily rebounded, increasing supply pressure (no detailed content provided) [2.1]. - Tire开工率 slightly rebounded (no detailed content provided) [2.2]. - Automobile market sales significantly improved [2.3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the bonded area in Qingdao increased [2.4]. 3.3 Offset Printing Paper Basics - Paper is mainly divided into four categories: cultural paper, packaging paper, tissue paper, and specialty paper. Cultural paper is used for cultural dissemination and includes offset printing paper, which has single - sided and double - sided types. Double - sided offset printing paper (double - gum paper) is the mainstream, with a difference in glue layers compared to single - sided paper. Offset paper has good properties such as tight texture, low stretch, and strong water resistance [10]. 3.4 Double - Gum Paper Basic Characteristics - Quantitative: Generally between 60 - 120 grams, with 70 - 120 grams being the most widely used, and there are also high - quantitative ones like 150, 180, and 300 grams. - Appearance: The cut edges should be neat and clean, with a uniform fiber structure, a flat paper surface, and no defects such as folds, holes, or powder - shedding. - Whiteness: Divided into high - white, natural - white, ivory - white, and beige, with different whiteness ranges. - Size: Flat - paper has domestic and international standard sizes, and can be cut into various specifications; reel - paper has common widths such as 787mm, 1092mm, and 850mm [19][20][21]. 3.5 Offset Printing Paper Quality Standards - The current national standard for offset paper is GB/T30130 - 2023, which came into effect on July 1, 2024. It has made some changes compared to the previous standard, such as modifying some technical terms and adding technical requirements for primary and secondary school students' paper [22]. 3.6 Double - Gum Paper Industry Chain - Upstream: Main raw materials are pulp (including coniferous, broad - leaved, and chemical mechanical pulp), accounting for 70% - 75% of production costs. Chemical auxiliary materials and energy also contribute to costs [24]. - Mid - stream: Through processes such as cooking, washing, screening, bleaching, and coating, pulp is made into double - gum paper [25]. - Downstream: Mainly used in books, brochures, notebooks, and periodicals, with book demand accounting for about 90%. Key demand entities include cultural and media companies and printing factories [26]. 3.7 Double - Gum Paper Supply - Since 2020, domestic double - gum paper production capacity has expanded rapidly. In 2024, the production capacity growth rate was about 9.7%, reaching 1608 million tons. Production is mainly concentrated in East, South, and Central China, with East China having the largest share. - In 2024, the output was about 10.49 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 65%. There is a seasonal pattern in monthly output, with lower production in January and February due to the Spring Festival and higher production from March to May and September to December due to increased demand for teaching materials. - Some paper mills' expansion plans are more inclined to South China in recent years. There is still about 1.75 million tons of new production capacity to be put into production this year, with 1 million tons in South China. The industry concentration is increasing, and the CR4 in 2024 was about 48% [29][30]. 3.8 Double - Gum Paper Demand - China's pulp consumption shows a slow - growing but unstable trend. The apparent consumption of double - gum paper exceeded 9 million tons in 2023 and 2024, reaching 9.72 million tons in 2024. - Export volume is relatively small, accounting for about 10% of annual consumption in 2024. Demand for teaching materials accounts for about 40% of double - gum paper demand. There are obvious seasonal characteristics, with peak demand from March to May and September to December [38]. 3.9 Double - Gum Paper Import and Export - Import policy: Since January 1, 2023, the temporary import tariff rate for double - gum paper has been 0%. - Export policy: The export tax - refund policy for paper and cardboard was cancelled in 2004. - From 2017 - 2024, China generally had a net - export pattern in double - gum paper, except for 2020 - 2021 when it turned to net - import due to the pandemic. In 2024, the import volume was 199,000 tons, and the export volume was 967,600 tons [46][47]. 3.10 Double - Gum Paper Inventory - There are two types of inventory: enterprise inventory and social inventory, with social inventory being much larger. In the past five years, enterprise inventory was generally between 40 - 100 million tons, and social inventory was between 100 - 170 million tons. As of December 2024, both were at relatively low levels year - on - year [51]. 3.11 Double - Gum Paper Spot Price - From 2022 to April 2023, prices oscillated upward due to high raw material prices and stable order release. From April to July 2023, prices回调 due to falling pulp prices and downstream hesitation. After July 2023, prices rebounded, and then fluctuated due to various factors such as production line shutdowns, order releases, and trade - capital recovery. In 2024, prices showed a downward trend with some rebounds [55]. 3.12 Offset Printing Paper Futures and Options Contracts and Business Rules - Futures contract: The trading unit is 20 tons/hand, the last trading day is the 15th of the contract month, and the delivery grade is double - gum paper with specific quantitative specifications. - Options contract: The underlying is the offset printing paper futures contract, with call and put options available. - Business rules cover trading, delivery, and risk management aspects, including regulations on trading time, margin, position limits, and delivery procedures [57][59][91].

Core Viewpoint - Anhui Linping Circular Development Co., Ltd. is seeking to raise 1.2 billion yuan through an IPO on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, focusing on the production of packaging paper products [1][5]. Company Overview - Linping Development specializes in the research, production, and sales of corrugated paper and boxboard, recognized as a high-tech enterprise with independent R&D capabilities [3]. - The company integrates waste paper utilization, cogeneration, and green paper-making, emphasizing environmental protection and resource recycling [3]. Market Position - Linping Development has a current production capacity of 1.2 million tons and ranks among the top 30 paper production companies in China, with a projected output of 1.0197 million tons in 2024 [4]. - The company holds a significant market share in Anhui Province, accounting for 35.65% of the province's paper and board production and 0.75% of the national total [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 2.879 billion yuan, 2.8 billion yuan, and 2.485 billion yuan for the years 2022 to 2024, with net profits of 154 million yuan, 212 million yuan, and 153 million yuan respectively [5]. Future Growth Plans - The IPO proceeds will be allocated to projects aimed at producing 900,000 tons of green intelligent manufacturing materials and 600,000 tons of bio-based fiber materials [5]. - The investment projects are expected to enhance product upgrades, production capacity, and market share, thereby improving profitability [6]. - The company plans to phase out outdated production lines and invest in new intelligent production lines to enhance efficiency and product quality [6].