作者：周绘 出品：全球财说 2025年4月，A股各大指数普遍下跌，上证指数收于3279.03点，全月跌1.70%；深证成指收于9899.82点，全月跌5.75%；创业板指收于1948.03点，全月跌 7.40%。 5月6日，迎节后开门红，市场全天高开高走，上证指数涨1.13%，深成指涨1.84%，创业板指涨1.97%。沪深两市全天成交额1.34万亿元，较上个交易日放量 1668亿元。盘面上，市场热点良性轮动，个股涨多跌少，全市场近5000只个股上涨。 经济数据方面，4月制造业PMI为49.0%，比上月下降1.5个百分点；非制造业PMI和综合PMI分别为50.4%和50.2%，继续保持在扩张区间。受外部环境急剧变 化等因素影响，4月份制造业PMI有所回落，但高技术制造业等相关行业继续保持扩张，以内销为主的制造业企业生产经营总体稳定。 政策方面，围绕扩大内需提出多项政策措施。 4月7日，国务院印发《加快建设农业强国规划（2024－2035年）》，提出主要目标：到2027年，农业强国建设取得明显进展；乡村全面振兴取得实质性进 展，农业农村现代化迈上新台阶；稳产保供能力巩固提升，粮食综合生产能力达到1.4万亿斤，重要 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Views - The company continues to expand its green energy segment, showcasing a high dividend yield that reflects its investment value [1]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.619 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a decline in revenue to 7.337 billion yuan, down 9.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.011 billion yuan, down 12.82% year-on-year [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company completed a total power generation of 586.23 billion kWh, an increase of 6.4% year-on-year, with coal power generation at 416.05 billion kWh, up 3.5% [1]. - The coal power segment's fuel cost was 8.931 billion yuan, with a corresponding cost per kWh of 0.278 yuan, a decrease of 0.019 yuan per kWh year-on-year [1]. - The gross profit margin for coal power improved by 4.89 percentage points to 15.57% in 2024 [1]. Growth and Expansion - The company has made significant progress in its green energy projects, including the commissioning of a 600,000 kW offshore wind power project in Hainan and obtaining construction indicators for additional wind and solar projects [3]. - By the end of 2024, the installed capacity for wind and solar power reached 2.825 million kW and 2.441 million kW, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18.36% and 14.53% [1]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.45 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 2.202 billion yuan, which represents 55.84% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [3]. - The current dividend yield stands at 5.1% as of April 30, 2025 [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2025-2027 projects net profits of 4.024 billion yuan, 4.239 billion yuan, and 4.370 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.82 yuan, 0.87 yuan, and 0.89 yuan [4]. - The report indicates a stable fundamental outlook for the company, maintaining a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 11 for 2025 and 10 for 2026 and 2027 [4].

Group 1: Power Generation Sector - The profitability of thermal power operators is improving in 2024 mainly due to the decline in coal prices, but there is regional differentiation, with Guangdong's thermal power operators experiencing worsening profitability due to a relaxed power supply-demand situation and further declines in market electricity prices [1][4] - Northern thermal power units show greater profitability improvement, with representative companies like Datang Power, Jingtou Energy, and Jingneng Power benefiting from a low base in 2023 [1][4] - In terms of profit per kilowatt-hour, Datang Power's coal-fired profit is 1.3 cents/kWh, while Huaneng International, Huadian International, and Guodian Power report profits of 1.9, 2.6, and 3.7 cents/kWh respectively [1][4] Group 2: Hydropower - Hydropower performance is stable, with a reaffirmation of its investment value; improved rainfall in 2024 is expected to contribute to increased electricity generation in early 2025 [2] - The pricing advantage of local hydropower remains compared to other local power sources, and the value of hydropower as a regulatory power source has yet to be fully priced [2] Group 3: Wind Power - Wind power operators are facing short-term performance declines due to poor wind conditions, while solar power operators are affected by declining electricity prices and increased curtailment rates [3] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term value of wind power operators is emphasized, with a recommendation to focus on those with better investment potential [3] Group 4: Coal Industry - The coal industry is under pressure due to declining prices, with Q1 2025 coal prices continuing to fall; the average price of Qinhuangdao port thermal coal is reported at 721 RMB/ton, down 12.3% month-on-month and 20.0% year-on-year [11][12] - The overall performance of the coal sector is declining, with 28 listed coal companies reporting a total revenue of 273.9 billion RMB, down 17.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 30.18 billion RMB, down 30.5% year-on-year [11][12] - The upcoming summer peak demand may help reduce inventory levels, potentially stabilizing coal prices [12]

Macro Economic Insights - The impact of tariffs is significant, with estimates suggesting a GDP impact of 1-2 percentage points under scenarios of 54%-145% tariff increases [5] - The U.S. economy is facing a high risk of mid-term recession, with Q1 GDP growth turning negative at -0.3% [15] - Domestic consumption during the May Day holiday showed improvement in volume but not in price, indicating a recovery in consumer activity [17] Industry Analysis Utilities Sector - The electricity supply-demand balance is shifting towards a more relaxed state, with a focus on stable profit-generating varieties [36] - In 2024, total electricity consumption reached 9.87 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 7.0% [36] - Power generation costs are expected to decrease due to falling coal prices, enhancing profitability for power companies [37] Retail Sector - Retail companies are under pressure, with overall revenue declining by 1.8% in 2024 and 13.3% in Q1 2025 [44] - The jewelry sector faced significant declines, with revenues down 25.9% in Q1 2025 [44] - High-growth segments such as cross-border e-commerce are performing well, with revenue growth of 28.8% in Q1 2025 [44] Chemical Industry - The chemical manufacturing sector saw revenues of 91,986.4 million yuan in 2024, a 4.2% increase, but profits fell by 8.6% [53] - The basic chemical sector reported a revenue increase of 5.8% in Q1 2025, with net profits rising by 11.8% [54] Textile and Apparel Sector - The main domestic sales demand is weak, leading to performance pressure, but there is optimism for growth in external sales [58] - The company expects revenue growth driven by successful overseas customer expansion, with a focus on diversifying procurement channels [59] Financial Engineering - In May 2025, the top recommended stocks included Gree Electric, Kying Network, and Zijin Mining, indicating a shift towards value-oriented investments [29][30] - The overall performance of the recommended stocks showed a decline in market capitalization but an increase in valuation levels, suggesting a transition to a value style [30]

金融界5月6日消息，上证指数高开高走，上证中小国企改革指数 (中小企改，950080)报2347.59点。 数据统计显示，上证中小国企改革指数近一个月下跌2.95%，近三个月下跌1.39%，年至今下跌6.23%。 据了解，上证中小国企改革指数优选已被中央和地方国资委列为国企改革试点、或已出台相关重大资产 重组方案、或已出台相关国企改革方案、或已完成国企改革的沪市国企上市公司证券作为指数样本，以 反映沪市中小国企改革主题上市公司证券的整体表现。该指数以2013年12月31日为基日，以1000.0点为 基点。 从上证中小国企改革指数持仓的市场板块来看，上海证券交易所占比100.00%。 从上证中小国企改革指数持仓样本的行业来看，工业占比34.16%、可选消费占比12.26%、信息技术占 比11.55%、原材料占比11.35%、公用事业占比8.07%、医药卫生占比7.40%、房地产占比5.84%、主要消 费占比5.42%、通信服务占比2.06%、能源占比1.90%。 资料显示，指数样本每季度调整一次，样本调整实施时间分别为每年3月、6月、9月和12月的第二个星 期五的下一交易日。权重因子随样本定期调整而调整，调整时 ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 05 月 06 日 电力供需转向宽松，重视盈利稳定品种 ——行业投资策略 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 相关研究报告 《政策助力预期企稳，静待绿电触底 回升—行业投资策略》-2025.2.19 《电力系统转型持续推进，兼具周期 红利成长属性 —电力行业 2025 年度 投资策略》-2024.11.8 《电力系统转型持续推进，兼具周期 红利成长属性—电力行业 2025年度投 资策略》-2024.11.7 周磊（分析师） zhoulei1@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524090002 行业回顾：电力需求稳定，电源电网投资持续增长 2024 年全社会用电量 9.87 万亿千瓦时，yoy+7.0%；电源投资额 1.17 万亿元， yoy+20.8%；电网投资额 6083 亿元，yoy+15.3%。截至 2025 年 4 月 30，公用事 业板块累计下跌 2.9%，在 31 个一级行业中排名第 19；电力板块累计下跌 2.3%， 电网设备板块累计下跌 5.4%，分别在 124 个二级行业中排名第 68 和第 87。 电力：成本下行、政策出台改善盈利预期，息差扩张提高红利配 ...

Group 1 - The liquidity of the green power ETF showed a turnover of 2.76% with a transaction volume of 10.0083 million yuan [2] - The green power ETF experienced a significant growth in scale, increasing by 165 million yuan over the past three months [2] - In terms of shares, the green power ETF saw an increase of 18.4 million shares in the last month, indicating substantial growth [2] Group 2 - The latest net inflow of funds into the green power ETF was 9.3737 million yuan, with a total of 19.8745 million yuan accumulated over the last 18 trading days [2] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index tracked by the green power ETF is currently at 18.37, which is in the 12.08% percentile over the past three years, indicating a historical low valuation [2] - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Green Power Index account for 58.04% of the index, including major companies like Yangtze Power and China Nuclear Power [2] Group 3 - The domestic public bidding market for wind power in Q1 2025 saw a new bidding volume of 28.6 GW, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.7% [3] - Wind turbine exports from China reached 14.6 million USD in March, with a month-on-month increase of 86.81% and a year-on-year increase of 50.54% [3] - The international bidding volume for Chinese wind turbine manufacturers is projected to reach 27.63 GW in 2024, showing a nearly 200% year-on-year growth [3]

智通财经APP获悉，广发证券发布研报称，当前电力板块已进入业绩兑现与改革红利共振阶段，低估值 属性叠加市值管理深化，行业配置价值显著提升。受煤价下行、水电增量释放及分红政策优化驱动，北 方火电龙头企业一季度业绩同比增长。随着下周长三角区域火电企业一季报密集发布，板块关注度有望 进一步升温。该行认为电力已经走出年初受电价签订不及预期导致的EPS下修阶段，电力大概率从弱势 红利转变成强势红利，板块行情已经从蓄势待发走向顺势而为。 广发证券主要观点如下： 从电价来看，25Q1华能国际、华电国际电价仅下降0.98、0.36分/千瓦时，降幅明显低于市场预期，究其 原因在于北方地区电价降幅小、部分省份月度电价同比提升(山东山西分别+1.34、+1.18分/千瓦时)、因 发电量下滑度电容量电价提升，整体看来电价韧性突出，这也反映了容量和辅助服务支撑度电盈利稳定 的性能。从电量来看，北方及内陆省份电量降幅普遍低于全国平均，沿海地区仅浙江省火电发电量提 升。从煤价来看，最新秦岛动力煤Q5500为657元/吨(百川盈孚)，同比下降155元/吨，再度创下新低，且 当前北方四港库存仍然创下历史新高。该行认为火电公司的盈利能力将继续保 ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·电力 申能股份（600642） 2024 年报&2025 一季报点评：业绩稳健分红 率 56%，关注燃料成本优化与新项目投产 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 29,142 | 29,619 | 28,512 | 28,760 | 28,862 | | 同比（%） | 3.36 | 1.64 | (3.74) | 0.87 | 0.35 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,459 | 3,944 | 4,052 | 4,144 | 4,301 | | 同比（%） | 219.52 | 14.04 | 2.72 | 2.28 | 3.77 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.71 | 0.81 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.88 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 12.48 | 10.94 | 10.65 | 10.42 | 10.04 | [Table ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 29.619 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.944 billion yuan, up 14.04% year-on-year [7] - The company proposed a cash dividend of 2.202 billion yuan, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 55.84% and a dividend yield of 5.1% [7] - The company’s power generation increased by 6.4% in 2024, with coal power generation reaching 416.05 billion kWh, a 3.5% increase [7] - Fuel costs have decreased, supporting profitability in the coal power sector, with coal and natural gas costs down by 3.17% and 1.98% respectively [7] - The company’s Q1 2025 net profit decreased by 12.82% year-on-year, attributed to fair value changes and a 7.2% decline in power generation [7] - The report forecasts net profits of 40.5 billion yuan for 2025, 41.4 billion yuan for 2026, and 43.0 billion yuan for 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.7, 10.4, and 10.0 [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 29.142 billion yuan, with a forecasted decline to 28.512 billion yuan in 2025 [8] - The company’s net profit is expected to grow from 3.944 billion yuan in 2024 to 4.301 billion yuan in 2027 [8] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to increase from 0.81 yuan in 2024 to 0.88 yuan in 2027 [8] - The company’s total assets are expected to grow from 101.666 billion yuan in 2024 to 111.314 billion yuan in 2027 [8] - The debt-to-asset ratio is projected to decrease from 54.83% in 2024 to 50.29% in 2027 [8]