2025 年 04 月 21 日 关注优质底仓大盘以及临期转债 ▌市场展望与策略推荐 美国目前的情况与互联网泡沫破裂时（2001 年）非常相似， 川普政府一系列逆全球化操作，也正是上述经济背景下看似 偶然、实则必然的结果。从不好的一面来看，中国实际经济 增速将受到一定程度的冲击，具体影响尚有待观察；从好的 一面来看，美国主打的科技的估值或将被重新进行系统性的 重估，而中国也迎来了历史性的机遇，如果我们不忘初心、 文化自信，西降东升或已开启，重点关注人民币汇率是否开 始逐步进入升值通道。债市方面，一年期国债收益率基本接 券 研 究 报 告 固 定 收 益 研 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn 相关研究 1、《价值权益资产仍最具性价比— —资产配置周报》2025-04-20 2、《转债表现出较强估值保护》 2025-04-13 3、《看多价值——资产配置周报》 2025-04-13 投资要点 ▌ 股债、转债市场回顾 上周权益市场仍受关税政策反复影响，防御情绪偏强，整体 缩量震荡，银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share port sector has experienced a short-term decline, with Lianyungang Port dropping over 9%, and other ports such as Zhuhai Port, Beibu Gulf Port, Rizhao Port, and Chongqing Port also following suit [1] Group 1 - Lianyungang Port's decline exceeds 9% [1] - Other ports including Zhuhai Port, Beibu Gulf Port, Rizhao Port, and Chongqing Port have also seen declines [1]

4月15日，上证指数上涨0.15%，深证成指下跌0.27%，创业板指下跌0.13%。盘后龙虎榜数据显示，共 有47只个股因当日异动登上龙虎榜，资金净流入最多的是深康佳A（000016.SZ），达1.23亿元。 据21投资通智能监测，26只个股龙虎榜出现了机构的身影，北向资金参与龙虎榜中的个股共涉及11只。 1.23亿元资金抢筹深康佳A，1.61亿元资金出逃天和磁材 其中，机构净买入金额最多的是深康佳A（000016.SZ），当日收盘上涨7.58%，换手率为17.1%。 | 南方精工 | 9.99% | 3 | 3 | 3362 | 2.83% | 25.29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 仁智股份 | -10.02% | ব | 1 | 1390 | 8.2% | 8.77% | | 远大控股 | -9.98% | 1 | 0 | 309 | 1% | 9.65% | | 洁雅股份 | 20.01% | 0 | 2 | -108 | -1.14% | 9.89% | | 康力源 | -9.1% | 1 | 0 | -170 | -0.77% ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Beibu Gulf Port, is undergoing a share buyback program initiated by its controlling shareholder, Guangxi Beibu Gulf International Port Group, which aims to enhance shareholder value through the acquisition of A-shares in the market [1] Group 1 - The controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in Beibu Gulf Port by purchasing a total of 15.9436 million A-shares, representing approximately 0.69% of the company's total share capital [1] - The total amount allocated for this share buyback is approximately 138 million yuan, including taxes and fees [1] - As of the date of the announcement, the buyback plan has not been fully executed, and the controlling shareholder will continue to implement the buyback according to the established plan [1]

深股通专用、机构专用、机构专用分别卖出8192.68万元、5739.99万元、4870.46万元。 买入金额最大的前5名营业部 买入额/万 卖出额/万 净额/万 长江证券股份有限公司仙桃仙桃大道证券营 业部 5780.39 90.11 5690.28 机构专用 3051.64 0.00 3051.64 申万宏源证券有限公司成都天府四街证券营业 部 3011.60 61.34 2950.26 深股通专用 2956.44 8192.68 -5236.24 华龙证券股份有限公司杭州玉古路证券营 业部 2604.07 0.00 2604.07 卖出金额最大的前5名营业部 买入额/万 卖出额/万 净额/万 深股通专用 2956.44 8192.68 -5236.24 机构专用 1033.03 5739.99 -4706.96 机构专用 205.53 4870.46 -4664.93 机构专用 8.92 4082.49 -4073.57 招商证券股份有限公司深圳前海大道证券营业部 154.66 3025.12 -2870.46 本文源自：金融界 4月15日，北部湾港下跌10.00%登上龙虎榜，日跌幅偏离值达7%，一线游资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept stocks related to the unified large market are experiencing significant adjustments, with multiple companies facing sharp declines in their stock prices [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Wuzhou Transportation has hit the daily limit down, indicating a severe drop in investor confidence [1] - Other companies such as Ruimaotong and Beibu Gulf Port also reached the daily limit down, reflecting a broader trend of declines in the sector [1] - Several stocks, including Huaguang Yuanhai, Tiens Holdings, Yuanda Holdings, Ningbo Maritime, and Lianyungang, have dropped over 5%, showcasing widespread negative sentiment in the market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Beibu Gulf Port's stock price closed at 10.8 yuan, marking a 3.05% increase, with a rolling PE ratio of 20.18, the lowest in 728 days, and a total market capitalization of 24.598 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the shipping and port industry is 14.54, with a median of 14.67, placing Beibu Gulf Port at the 27th position in the industry ranking [1] - As of the Q3 2024 report, 101 institutions hold shares in Beibu Gulf Port, with a total of 18.8592 million shares valued at 149 million yuan [1] Group 2 - Beibu Gulf Port's main business activities include container and bulk cargo handling, storage, and port services, with key operations in port loading and unloading, tugboat services, cargo surveying, and agency services [1] - The latest performance report for Q3 2024 shows that the company achieved an operating revenue of 4.902 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.13%, and a net profit of 916 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.06%, with a sales gross margin of 31.09% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights the impact of escalating tariffs on trade flows, particularly benefiting transshipment trade between Asia and Latin America. The report suggests focusing on shipping and port-related stocks due to the significant tariff increases imposed by the U.S. on Chinese imports [5] - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reported a slight increase of 0.1% week-on-week, indicating a mixed trend in shipping rates across different routes [6] - The report notes a decline in bulk shipping rates, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropping by 15.5% week-on-week, reflecting weaker demand in the dry bulk market [7] - The express delivery sector continues to show robust growth, with a projected year-on-year increase of 18% in March 2025, driven by seasonal demand and expanding service offerings [8] - The aviation sector is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with a significant increase in domestic flight operations and passenger numbers in the first quarter of 2025 [9][11] Summary by Sections Shipping and Maritime - The report indicates a tight supply in the oil tanker segment due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, with expectations of sustained demand growth driven by geopolitical factors [11] - The report emphasizes the ongoing green transition in shipping, with a focus on the need for fleet renewal and the potential for rising ship prices due to limited newbuilding capacity [11] Express Delivery - The express delivery market is experiencing strong demand, with major players like SF Express and JD Logistics expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and cost reduction efforts [11] - The report identifies key players in the express delivery sector, including ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, highlighting their growth potential and market positioning [11] Aviation - The aviation sector is witnessing a significant rebound in passenger traffic, with a 2.1-fold increase in domestic flight operations in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year [9][11] - The report notes the introduction of a new tax refund policy for international travelers, which is expected to enhance consumer spending and boost airport revenues [9] Logistics - The logistics sector is showing signs of improvement, with companies like Debon Logistics and Aneng Logistics benefiting from strategic transformations and operational efficiencies [11] - The report highlights the potential for growth in chemical logistics, driven by increasing demand and tightening industry regulations [11]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the impact of the ongoing US-China trade war, particularly focusing on tariffs and their effects on various industries including shipping, aviation, chemicals, and metals [2][11][20]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Impact of Tariffs on Global Trade**: - The US has increased tariffs on China to 125%, prompting reciprocal measures from China, significantly altering global trade dynamics [2][3]. - The high tariffs have led to a rise in transshipment trade through Southeast Asia, benefiting regional shipping companies [2][4]. 2. **Shipping Industry Effects**: - Shipping rates on routes from China to the US have decreased, with West Coast rates down 18% and East Coast rates down 12%, while Mediterranean and South American routes have seen increases of 15.3% and 52.5% respectively [4]. - Key companies to watch include regional container shipping firms like SeaLand International, Jinjiang Shipping, and global leaders like COSCO and Orient Overseas [5]. 3. **Aviation Sector Challenges**: - The aviation industry faces increased costs due to high tariffs on imported Boeing aircraft, which could reduce the growth rate of aircraft acquisitions for major Chinese airlines from 4.8% to 2.6% [6]. - Despite rising maintenance costs, a significant drop in oil prices (20% decrease) is expected to enhance profits for major airlines, with Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines projected to benefit significantly [7][8]. 4. **Chemical Industry Impacts**: - The chemical sector is experiencing a decline in prices, with the CCPI chemical product price index dropping approximately 5.1% due to tariff impacts [11]. - Companies involved in gasoline chemicals, paper, and agricultural chemicals are particularly affected, while vitamins remain unaffected due to tariff exemptions [11]. 5. **Opportunities in Electronics and New Materials**: - The US's exemption of certain electronic products from tariffs signals potential growth in electronic chemicals and new materials, with companies like Dongcai Technology and Shengquan Group highlighted as key players [12]. 6. **Investment Recommendations**: - The call recommends focusing on domestic demand sectors, logistics companies like SF Express, and infrastructure firms such as Shandong Highway and Anhui Expressway [10]. - In the context of transshipment trade, companies like SeaLand International and Jinjiang Shipping are emphasized as potential investment opportunities [10]. 7. **Long-term Trends in Metals and Commodities**: - The long-term trend of US-China decoupling highlights the importance of self-sufficiency, particularly in gold and rare earth materials, with companies like Guangsheng Nonferrous and Northern Rare Earth being key focuses [18][20]. - Gold investments are seen as favorable due to ongoing global economic uncertainty and increased central bank purchases [19][21]. 8. **Electricity Sector Dynamics**: - Recent buybacks by power companies reflect the importance of the Chinese valuation system, with state support for asset management enhancing the investment appeal of utility stocks [15]. Other Important Insights - The call emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing trade policies and market conditions, particularly in light of the ongoing geopolitical tensions and their implications for supply chains and pricing strategies [2][20]. - The potential for recovery in various sectors is contingent on the resolution of trade disputes and the stabilization of commodity prices, particularly in the energy and materials sectors [22].

Group 1 - On the institutional trading list, 37 stocks were featured, with 21 experiencing net buying and 16 facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest institutional buying were: Fenzhong Media (CNY 513 million), China Duty Free Group (CNY 170 million), and Huijin Co., Ltd. (CNY 110 million) [1] - Zhaowei Electromechanical saw a net buying of CNY 97.69 million from five institutions [3] Group 2 - The semiconductor industry in China is adapting to new "origin" recognition rules for semiconductor products, which may impact trade dynamics [4] - The China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing issued a proposal to strengthen supply chain strategies in response to U.S. tariffs, suggesting a focus on domestic supply chains [5] - The domestic mature process chip industry is well-prepared to absorb market share from U.S. manufacturers, potentially accelerating the domestic substitution process [5]