Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing increased activity, with Shanxi Coking Coal reaching its daily limit, and Lu'an Huanneng, Shaanxi Black Cat, and Yunnan Coal Energy also seeing gains [1] - Since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China has been promoting the deep integration of new-generation information technology with the coal industry [1] - By the end of 2025, a total of 1,066 intelligent coal mines are expected to be established nationwide, with intelligent production capacity accounting for over 65% [1]

东方证券指出，低位周期中具备红利吸引力的板块值得关注，宏观层面看，目前正处于PPI持续下行的 触底期，从市场预期角度看，PPI和行业盈利正处在低位回升的节点。在反内卷背景下有政策变化的行 业内，关注供给出清且有盈利弹性的板块，重点关注其中红利吸引力提升的板块。（文中所列示的行业 仅供参考，不预示本基金未来表现，不作为投资收益保证，也不构成对具体行业的投资建议） 国企红利ETF紧密跟踪中证国有企业红利指数，从国有企业中选取现金股息率高、分红比较稳定且有一 定规模及流动性的100只上市公司证券作为指数样本，反映国有企业中高股息率证券的整体表现。 据Wind数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，中证国有企业红利指数前十大权重股分别为中远海控、潞安环 能、西部矿业、山煤国际、恒源煤电、平煤股份、山西焦煤、兖矿能源、陕西煤业、华阳股份，前十大 权重股合计占比16.61%。（以上所列示股票为指数成份股，仅做示意不作为个股推荐。过往持仓情况 不代表基金未来的投资方向，也不代表具体的投资建议，投资方向、基金具体持仓可能发生变化。市场 有风险，投资需谨慎） 2026年2月11日早盘，截至11:05，中证国有企业红利指数上涨0.2 ...

Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed positive performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,123.09, up 1.41%, indicating broad growth potential [4] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.17%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 2.98%, reflecting a strong market sentiment [4] Company Insights - Under Armour reported a 4% decline in revenue for FY2026, with Q3 revenue dropping 5% to $1.3 billion and a net loss of $431 million [8] - In North America, Under Armour's revenue fell by 10% to $757 million, while international markets saw a 3% increase, with EMEA growing by 6% and Latin America by 20% [8] - The company's gross margin decreased by 3.10 percentage points to 44.4%, primarily due to higher tariffs and pricing pressures [8] - For FY2026, Under Armour anticipates an 8% revenue decline in North America and a 6% decline in the Asia-Pacific region, with an expected operating loss of $154 million [8] Industry Dynamics - In 2025, China's gold consumption is projected to decline by 3.57% to 950.096 tons, with jewelry consumption dropping by 31.61% [8] - The demand for gold is diversifying, with a notable increase in gold bars and coins consumption, which is expected to surpass jewelry consumption for the first time [8] - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.32% increase, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like textile manufacturing and apparel showing significant gains [9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands like Bosideng, which is expected to meet its sales targets due to product innovation and extended sales periods [9] - Companies like Geely and Jiangnan Buyi are highlighted for their stable performance and high dividend yields, with Jiangnan Buyi maintaining an average payout ratio of 84% from 2021 to 2025 [9] - In the home textile sector, companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile are recommended due to their strong product performance and market positioning [9] - The report emphasizes the potential of companies involved in gold investment, such as Caibai Co., which is expected to see significant profit growth due to rising gold prices [10]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the coal industry investment rating to "Leading the Market - A" [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal supply is expected to contract as mines announce production halts ahead of the Spring Festival, leading to a limited increase in downstream demand for procurement [5] - The financial performance of coal companies shows room for improvement, with manageable supply chain risks [2][6] - The dynamics of the coal market are influenced by external factors such as Indonesia's export suspension and geopolitical tensions, which may lead to short-term volatility [6] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Dynamics - Thermal coal prices are stabilizing but trending weakly due to reduced production as mines prepare for the holiday. As of February 6, the spot price for thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 697 RMB/ton, with a weekly change of +0.29% [3] - Coking coal production remains focused on safety, with downstream steel mills purchasing based on demand. The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,660 RMB/ton, down 7.78% week-on-week [4] 2. Supply and Demand - The total coal inventory at nine ports in the Bohai Rim is 20.424 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 16.84% [3] - The operating rate of sample steel mills is 79.55%, with a slight increase of 0.53 percentage points week-on-week, indicating stable production levels [4] 3. Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies benefiting from the revaluation of physical assets due to a loosening of the US credit system. Recommended stocks include Guanghui Energy, Panjiang Coal, Shanxi Coking Coal, and China Shenhua Energy [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring downstream replenishment demand and market supply conditions in the coming weeks [5]

Market Performance - The A-share market saw a collective increase in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.17%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.98% [1] - The North China 50 Index increased by 1.36% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 22,494.73 billion yuan, an increase of about 1,037.54 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Shanxi Sector Analysis - The Shanxi sector performed steadily, with an overall increase of 0.61% and a trading volume of 120.25 billion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment [1] - Among the 41 stocks in the Shanxi sector, 28 stocks rose, 12 fell, and 1 remained flat [1] Individual Stock Performance - Notable gainers included Jinlihua Electric and Huaxiang Co., both rising over 3%, while Dongjie Intelligent, Luhua Technology, and Huayang New Materials increased by over 2% [1] - Other stocks such as Beifang Copper Industry, Kexin Development, and Shitou Co. saw increases of over 1% [1] - Decliners included Jinkong Power and Lanyan Holdings, both dropping over 2%, while Shanxi Coking Coal and Qianyuan Pharmaceutical fell by more than 1% [1] - Several stocks, including Jinkong Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Jinbo Biological, experienced milder declines, with losses contained within 1% [1]

Group 1: Coal Prices - Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) price increased to 692 CNY/ton, up 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 7 [1] - Datong thermal coal price (Q5500) decreased to 567 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [1] - International thermal coal prices: Newcastle NEWC5500 at 76.3 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week; ARA6000 at 101.6 USD/ton, down 1.5 USD/ton [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Prices - Beijing Tangshan port coking coal price decreased to 1700 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] - Linfen coking coal price decreased to 1570 CNY/ton, down 80 CNY/ton week-on-week as of February 6 [2] - Australian hard coking coal price at 265.6 USD/ton, up 1.5 USD/ton week-on-week as of February 5 [2] Group 3: Production and Consumption - Sample thermal coal mine capacity utilization at 87.5%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week; coking coal mine utilization at 86.67%, down 2.5 percentage points [2] - Coastal provinces' coal consumption decreased by 16.3 million tons/day, down 7.22% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] - Inland provinces' coal consumption decreased by 81.8 million tons/day, down 18.1% week-on-week as of February 4 [3] Group 4: Market Outlook - Current coal market is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy support [4] - Indonesian government reduced coal production quotas by 40% to 70% compared to 2025 levels, impacting global coal supply [4] - Domestic coal supply is expected to remain constrained, with potential for price recovery due to demand resilience [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Coal sector remains attractive due to high performance, cash flow, and dividends; recommended to focus on quality coal companies [6] - Suggested companies include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal Australia among others [6] - Emphasis on the importance of coal assets as they are undervalued and have high potential for appreciation [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of Indonesia's coal export suspension due to significant production cuts, which exceeded market expectations, leading to a reshaping of trade dynamics in the coal industry [5][10]. - Yancoal Energy (600188.SH) is expected to benefit from rising international coal prices as a result of the export suspension, particularly in its overseas operations [7][10]. Market Trends - The domestic market indices showed slight declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,065.58, down 0.25%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,906.73, down 0.33% [4]. Industry Commentary - The Indonesian government has set a coal production quota of approximately 600 million tons for 2026, a significant reduction from the 790 million tons produced in 2025, with core miners facing cuts of 40%-70% [7][10]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners is expected to create a supply gap in the global thermal coal market, benefiting international coal prices, especially for low-calorific thermal coal, which is Indonesia's main export variety [7][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that rising overseas coal prices could enhance domestic coal price expectations, leading to an upgrade in the industry rating. Companies with higher exposure to overseas coal operations, such as Yancoal Energy, are likely to benefit [7][9]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Yancoal Energy for 2025-2027 are estimated at 1, 1.2, and 1.4 yuan, respectively, with corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 15.5, 12.9, and 11.1 times based on the closing price of 15.44 yuan on February 5 [9].

证券研究报告 印尼意在稳价，节后有望开启 补库行情 ——煤炭行业周报（2月第1周） 行业评级：看好 2026年2月8日 分析师 樊金璐 邮箱 fanjinlu@stocke.com.cn 电话 13466717654 证书编号 S1230525030002 摘要 1.煤炭板块收跌，跑赢沪深300指数：截至2026年2月6日，本周中信煤炭行业收跌0.61%，沪深300指数下跌1.33%，跑赢沪深300指数0.72个百分点。全板块整周9只股价上涨，27 只下跌，1只持平。陕西黑猫涨幅最高，整周涨幅为12.88%。 2.重点煤矿周度数据：中国煤炭运销协会数据，2026年1月30日-2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均销量为733万吨，周环比减少3.3%，年同比增加35.9%。其中，动力煤周日 均销量较上周减少2.5%，炼焦煤销量较上周减少8.2%，无烟煤销量较上周减少3.5%。截至2026年2月5日，重点监测企业煤炭日均产量为740万吨，周环比减少1.7%，年同比增加 33.2%；重点监测企业煤炭库存总量（含港存）2273万吨，周环比增加2.2%，年同比减少23.8%。今年以来，供给端，重点监测企业煤炭累计销量 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and potentially exceeding the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Key Market Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY from the previous week [3][20] - The report notes a decrease in the production rate of coal mines, with the operating rate for 442 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia at 82.7% [20][21] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests four main lines for selecting coal stocks: 1. Cyclical logic: companies like Jinko Coal and Yanzhou Coal 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua and Zhongmei Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhuo Co. and Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinjie Energy and Guanghui Energy [6][15] Company Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - Major coal companies showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [24][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to recover gradually to a reasonable price level of around 750 CNY/ton, influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors [3][5] - The report highlights that the price of thermal coal has reached a turning point, with a projected upward trajectory supported by policy adjustments and market dynamics [5][14] - The focus on both cyclical recovery and dividend stability presents a dual investment logic for coal stocks, suggesting that now is an opportune time for investment [6][15] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at 860 CNY/ton [5][14] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [5][14] Market Performance - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 0.62%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.71 percentage points [8][24] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 15.71, and the PB ratio is 1.38, indicating relatively low valuations compared to other sectors [8][9] Key Indicators - As of February 6, the price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal was 695 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 3 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][20] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was reported at 1660 CNY/ton, down from 1800 CNY/ton, indicating a significant weekly decline [20][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a selection of coal stocks based on two main strategies: cyclical recovery and dividend stability, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [6][15] - Key stocks recommended include: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for cyclical logic; 中国神华, 中煤能源 for dividend potential; 神火股份, 电投能源 for diversified aluminum elasticity; 新集能源, 广汇能源 for growth logic [15][16]