有色金属周报 20260208 情绪趋稳，商品价格筑底 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.19 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 21.99 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 31.70 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 70.45 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 28 | 22 | 17 | 推荐 | | 00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of long-term momentum indicators in understanding institutional behavior, particularly during market cycles, and highlights the potential for investment opportunities in the materials sector, specifically tungsten and copper [1][3]. Group 1: Momentum Indicators - Long-term momentum indicators, while not providing immediate timing signals, are beneficial for understanding institutional behavior [1]. - The RSL (Relative Strength Line) and SSV (Short-term Strength Value) indicators are discussed, indicating a transition into a second phase of upward movement in the market [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The article references a significant bottom divergence in RSL during the end of a bear market, suggesting that institutions are actively building positions against the trend [1]. - Specific companies in the tungsten sector, such as Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongtung High-tech, Xiamen Tungsten, and Zhangyuan Tungsten, exhibited similar bottom momentum structures, leading to substantial price increases [3]. Group 3: Copper Sector Insights - In the copper sector, companies like Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, Western Mining, and Tongling Nonferrous Metals also showed strong bottom momentum structures, resulting in impressive price movements [5]. - The article posits that the upward trends in tungsten and copper are not yet complete, indicating the beginning of a second foundational phase for these sectors [5]. Group 4: Market Trends and Volatility - Historical data suggests that the base retracement in the materials sector can be significant, but current regulatory environments may lead to reduced volatility [5]. - The first base retracement is noted to be around 26%, with hopes for similar performance in the second base [5].

有色金属周报 20260208 情绪趋稳，商品价格筑底 glmszqdatemark 重点公司盈利预测、估值与评级 | 代码 | 简称 | 股价（元） | | EPS（元） | | | PE（X） | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | | | 601899.SH | 紫金矿业 | 37.19 | 1.21 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 31 | 19 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603993.SH | 洛阳钼业 | 21.99 | 0.63 | 0.88 | 1.29 | 35 | 25 | 17 | 推荐 | | 000807.SZ | 云铝股份 | 31.70 | 1.27 | 1.94 | 2.31 | 25 | 16 | 14 | 推荐 | | 603799.SH | 华友钴业 | 70.45 | 2.50 | 3.15 | 4.17 | 28 | 22 | 17 | 推荐 | | 00 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices may experience short-term fluctuations due to inventory accumulation, with recent price changes of -4.02% for LME copper, -3.45% for SHFE copper, and -1.33% for COMEX copper. The report anticipates a decrease in price volatility and potential high-level fluctuations in the near term [5] - The report highlights that the Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including copper concentrate in national reserves, which could positively impact copper prices in the medium to long term [5] - For aluminum, the report notes that inventory accumulation may lead to short-term price fluctuations, with SHFE aluminum prices dropping by 7.74% to 23,400 CNY/ton and LME aluminum prices down by 2.20% to 3,063 USD/ton [5] - Lithium demand remains strong despite seasonal trends, with a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate, suggesting a possible upward price trend [5] - Cobalt raw material tightness persists, with a recommendation to monitor downstream replenishment after the Spring Festival [5] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides macroeconomic insights, including a better-than-expected ISM manufacturing PMI in the US for January at 52.6, and lower-than-expected ADP employment figures [9] - The overall performance of the non-ferrous metals sector shows a decline, with the Shenwan non-ferrous sector down 8.51%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 7.24 percentage points [11] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - LME copper prices fell by 4.02%, SHFE copper by 3.45%, and COMEX copper by 1.33%. Inventory levels increased, with LME copper stocks up 4.74% and SHFE copper stocks up 6.83% [24] 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices decreased by 2.20%, while SHFE aluminum prices dropped by 7.74%. The report notes a significant increase in SHFE aluminum inventory by 13.09% [34] 2.3 Lead and Zinc - LME lead prices fell by 2.82%, and SHFE lead prices decreased by 3.05%. LME zinc prices dropped by 1.93%, with SHFE zinc prices down by 6.95% [45] 2.4 Tin and Nickel - LME tin prices decreased by 13.93%, and SHFE tin prices fell by 18.32%. LME nickel prices dropped by 3.71%, while SHFE nickel prices decreased by 8.98% [56] 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices saw a significant decline, with lithium carbonate down 16.20% to 134,500 CNY/ton and lithium hydroxide down 16.14% to 132,500 CNY/ton [73] 3.2 Cobalt - The report notes a decrease in MB cobalt prices by 0.19% to 25.88 USD/pound, with domestic cobalt prices down 9.60% to 405,000 CNY/ton [85]

Core Insights - The global refined copper production capacity and output are projected to increase annually from 2018 to 2024, with a capacity of 33.236 million tons and an output of 27.486 million tons expected in 2024, resulting in a capacity utilization rate of 82.70% [1] - The global refined copper consumption is also on the rise, expected to reach 27.348 million tons in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [5] - Major consumption sectors for refined copper include consumer and general products, refrigeration, and electronics, accounting for approximately 23% of total consumption, while the construction sector represents 26% [7] Production and Capacity - The refined copper production capacity is forecasted to reach 33.236 million tons by 2024, with a production output of 27.486 million tons, including 4.581 million tons of recycled refined copper, which is a 2.0% increase year-on-year [1] - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global copper smelting output is estimated at 3.3% from 2024 to 2028, with a projected output of 33.20 million tons by 2030 [11] Demand Drivers - The demand for refined copper is primarily driven by the acceleration of global electrification, the booming electric vehicle industry, and large-scale renewable energy projects, all of which require copper for its excellent conductivity [14] - Additional demand growth is anticipated from the recovery of the global economy and increased infrastructure investments in construction, industrial, and consumer goods sectors [14] - The refined copper usage is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.0% from 2025 to 2030, reaching 32.75 million tons by 2030 [14]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the growth in China's non-ferrous metal production, indicating a positive trend in the industry with a projected increase in output and investment opportunities in energy-saving and emission reduction initiatives from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - In December 2025, China's production of ten non-ferrous metals reached 7.21 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [1] - The cumulative production of these ten non-ferrous metals for the entire year of 2025 was 81.75 million tons, showing a cumulative increase of 3.9% [1] - The data is sourced from the National Bureau of Statistics and compiled by Zhiyan Consulting, emphasizing the reliability of the statistics [1] Group 2: Companies Involved - Key listed companies in the non-ferrous metal sector include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), China Aluminum (601600), Northern Rare Earth (600111), Jiangxi Copper (600362), Yunnan Copper (000878), Chihong Zinc & Germanium (600497), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Western Mining (601168), and Shenghe Resources (600392) [1] - These companies are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the non-ferrous metal market and the focus on energy efficiency and emissions reduction [1]

Group 1 - The China Securities 500 Growth ETF (562340) opened down 0.51% at 1.359 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF experienced declines, including Giant Network down 0.54%, Western Mining down 5.87%, and Tianshan Aluminum down 3.19% [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the return rate of the China Securities 500 Quality Growth Index multiplied by 100% [1] Group 2 - The fund is managed by Yinhua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with Zhang Yichi as the fund manager [1] - Since its establishment on April 25, 2024, the ETF has returned 37.36%, with a one-month return of 5.14% [1]

中金认为，中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长。产业补库托底铜价，春季旺季补库叠 加供应偏紧或进一步推升铜价。长期看，铜行业牛市主升浪风鹏正举，短期调整迎来布局良机。 中金又指，据Mysteel数据，周一国内铜价短暂回落，下游补库需求环比大幅增长，当日电解铜、铜杆 成交量达3.8、4.3万吨，环比分别增长108%、198%，分别创近三月、2025年3月来新高。 中金维持相关公司盈利预测、目标及评级不变。建议关注铜矿自给率高、有较强增储上产和外延并购潜 力的龙头标的，包括紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、西部矿业(601168.SH)、金诚信(603979.SH)、 铜陵有色(000630.SZ)等。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫周二(3日)在《2025年有色 金属工业经济运行情况》记者会提出完善铜资源储备体系建设。美国亦于周一宣布正启动一项120亿美 元的关键矿产储备计划("Project Vault")，包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产， 以对冲供应链风险。 ...

中金又指，据Mysteel数据，周一国内铜价短暂回落，下游补库需求环比大幅增长，当日电解铜、铜杆 成交量达3.8、4.3万吨，环比分别增长108%、198%，分别创近三月、2025年3月来新高。 中金维持相关公司盈利预测、目标及评级不变。建议关注铜矿自给率高、有较强增储上产和外延并购潜 力的龙头标的，包括紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、西部矿业(601168.SH)、金诚信(603979.SH)、 铜陵有色(000630.SZ)等。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫周二(3日)在《2025年有色 金属工业经济运行情况》记者会提出完善铜资源储备体系建设。美国亦于周一宣布正启动一项120亿美 元的关键矿产储备计划("Project Vault")，包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产， 以对冲供应链风险。 中金认为，中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长。产业补库托底铜价，春季旺季补库叠 加供应偏紧或进一步推升铜价。长期看，铜行业牛市主升浪风鹏正举，短期调整迎来布局良机。 ...

中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长 一是国内提出完善铜储备体系建设，国储与商储模式结合，精炼铜与铜精矿均纳入考量范围。二是美国 启动关键矿产储备计划，其两大交易所铜库存持续增长。据iFinD，1月19日起CME-LME铜溢价转负， LME美国铜库存仅在11个交易日内快速攀升至1.5万吨；COMEX铜库存仍在累增，截至2月2日， COMEX铜库存达53万吨，周环比+2%，累库速度在C-L溢价转负后略放缓。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，美国宣布正启动关键矿产储备计划，包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地 质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产，以对冲供应链风险。国内同步跟进提出完善铜储备体系建设，国储与 商储模式结合，精炼铜与铜精矿均纳入考量范围。库存上看，下游在库存低位背景下对于低价铜补库意 愿强。同时，考虑到春季旺季到来，在海外铜矿供应扰动频发且TC/RC处于低位的背景下，铜供需或持 续偏紧，有望进一步推升铜价。 中金主要观点如下： 行业近况 2月3日，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上表 示，完善铜资源储备体系建设。2月2日，美国宣布正启动一项120亿美元的关 ...