Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a broad increase, with notable stock performances including Jiangxi Copper rising by 5.84% to HKD 18.49, and Luoyang Molybdenum increasing by 5.26% to HKD 10.6 [1] - The U.S. Labor Department reported a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, aligning with expectations and showing a deceleration of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Following the CPI data release, traders are betting on a high probability (over 90%) that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities noted that poor U.S. economic and employment data, combined with Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve, has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut in September, leading to a rally in the non-ferrous sector [2] - The ongoing domestic "anti-involution" policy aims to optimize production factors and enhance profitability across various segments, which is favorable for the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream markets [2] - The valuation of the industrial metals sector is currently low, indicating potential for upward correction, with a bullish market for non-ferrous metals beginning to emerge as both EPS and PE metrics show promise [2]

Core Insights - The Chinese non-ferrous metals industry showed stable growth in production during the first quarter of 2025, with refined copper output at 3.536 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%, and electrolytic aluminum output at 11.066 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [1] - Fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metals industry increased by 21.6% year-on-year, surpassing the national industrial investment growth by 9.6 percentage points, with mining investment up by 38.6% and smelting and processing investment up by 17.9% [1] - Revenue for large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises reached 2.2293 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, while total profit was 91.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [1] Production and Investment - The production of ten types of non-ferrous metals is expected to continue growing, with an estimated increase of around 3% in the first half of the year [2] - The mining sector saw a significant increase in private investment, with a year-on-year growth of 52.2%, while smelting and processing industries experienced a 14.1% increase in private investment [1] Profitability and Economic Outlook - The profit margin for large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises was 4.1%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with the mining sector's profit up by 62.3% and smelting and processing profit up by 33.6% [1] - The industry is expected to see a growth in added value of around 6% in the first half of the year, although there may be increasing disparities in profitability across different sectors [2]