Core Viewpoint - New筑股份 is planning to issue shares to acquire assets, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock trading, with expectations of an announcement regarding the acquisition soon [1][3] Group 1: Company Background - New筑股份, established in 2001 and listed in 2010, is currently controlled by 四川发展(控股) and is involved in public transportation components, rail transit, and photovoltaic power generation [3][4] - The controlling shareholder, 蜀道投资集团, is a large state-owned enterprise in Sichuan with total assets exceeding 1.5 trillion yuan and over 500 subsidiaries, including five listed companies [1][3] Group 2: Recent Developments - The stock of New筑股份 has seen a nearly 17% increase since May 16, following the announcement of the asset acquisition and the potential for industrial synergy [3] - The company has faced continuous losses over the past four years, with total losses amounting to 1.55 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, and a loss of 18.06 million yuan in the first quarter of this year [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - New筑股份 has not met performance commitments from its acquisition of 四川晟天新能源, resulting in a cash compensation requirement of 13.21 million yuan from 四川发展(控股) [4] - The company has reported net profits of -233 million yuan, -566 million yuan, -342 million yuan, and -409 million yuan for the years 2021 to 2024, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - Continued optimism for infrastructure investment in central and western regions, with a focus on the subsequent realization of physical workload [1][13] - Infrastructure investment remains a key focus for future policy efforts, with significant growth in narrow and broad infrastructure investments offsetting declines in real estate [2][13] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from improved physical workload conversion due to rising orders from central and state-owned enterprises [3][18] Summary by Sections Infrastructure Investment - In the first four months of 2025, national fixed asset investment increased by 4% year-on-year, with real estate development down by 10.3%, narrow infrastructure up by 5.8%, broad infrastructure up by 10.9%, and manufacturing up by 8.8% [2][13] - Narrow infrastructure growth outpaced overall investment growth by 1.8%, contributing 32.6% to total investment growth, an increase of 2.3 percentage points from Q1 [2][13] - Significant regional investment growth was observed in Beijing (+21.2%), Inner Mongolia (+18.8%), Xinjiang (+17.2%), and Tibet (+16.5%) [14][17] Market Performance - The construction index fell by 1.11% from May 19 to May 23, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 0.07% [4][22] - Notable stock performances included Palm Holdings (+31.82%), ST Lingnan (+27.61%), and Zhengzhong Design (+22.78%) [4][22] Investment Recommendations - Focus on cyclical opportunities arising from improvements in physical workload, particularly in water conservancy, railways, and aviation sectors [26] - Recommendations include regional state-owned enterprises with high growth potential such as Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction [26][27] - Emphasis on emerging business directions such as AI-driven computing power and cleanroom sectors, with specific recommendations for companies like Hainan Huatie and Baicheng [28][29]

Group 1 - Sichuan Road and Bridge Engineering Co., Ltd. has applied for a patent for a construction method related to large-span T-beams near electrified railways, indicating innovation in bridge construction technology [1] - The patent application was filed on March 2025, with the publication number CN120026564A, showcasing the company's ongoing commitment to technological advancement [1] - The construction method aims to improve assembly accuracy and reduce construction risks while minimizing the impact on railway operations [1] Group 2 - Sichuan Road and Bridge Engineering Co., Ltd. was established in 2001 and is primarily engaged in civil engineering and construction [2] - The company has a registered capital of 61 million RMB and has participated in 3,260 bidding projects, reflecting its active role in the industry [2] - The company holds 249 patents and has 268 administrative licenses, indicating a strong focus on innovation and compliance within the construction sector [2]

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [5][13] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on central enterprises in infrastructure, which are currently underweighted relative to the CSI 300 index. The recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aim to shift the focus of public funds from scale to returns, potentially benefiting the construction sector [4][6][14] - The report highlights that major construction companies like China State Construction, China Chemical, and Sichuan Road and Bridge are currently in a state of slight overweight in fund holdings, while others like China Railway and China Energy Construction are underweight, indicating potential investment opportunities [7][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The report discusses the recent regulatory framework aimed at enhancing the quality of public fund management, which is expected to influence the investment strategies of fund managers and create structural investment opportunities in the market [6][13] - It notes that construction central enterprises may gain significant allocation opportunities as fund strategies adjust [14] Infrastructure Data Tracking - The report provides data on special bonds, indicating that the issuance volume for the week was 993.94 billion, with a cumulative issuance of 31,844.40 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 116.54% [16] - It also mentions that the issuance of urban investment bonds for the week was 150.09 billion, with a cumulative net financing amount of -2,297.57 billion [16] Company Dynamics - The report highlights several companies' contract announcements, showcasing strong project acquisition capabilities. For instance, China State Construction signed contracts worth 14,247 billion from January to April, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [22][23] - It also notes that companies like China Nuclear Engineering and Shaanxi Construction have secured significant contracts, indicating robust domestic infrastructure demand [22][23] Market Review - The report summarizes market performance, noting that the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.76% and the construction decoration index increased by 0.77% during the week. It highlights that all sub-sectors within construction, except for specialized engineering and consulting services, experienced gains [10][26] - It identifies top-performing stocks within the construction sector, with notable increases in companies like Dongzhu Ecology and Zhengzhong Design [10][26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - Infrastructure investment continues to show high growth, with significant increases in water, electricity, fuel, and thermal investments, as well as water conservancy investments, which have seen year-on-year growth rates of +25.5% and +30.7% respectively in the first four months of 2025 [1][2] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a cumulative increase of 1,190.4 billion yuan in special bonds in the first four months of 2025, an increase of 467.9 billion yuan year-on-year, leading to optimism about the conversion of physical workload in infrastructure [1] - The report emphasizes the cyclical investment opportunities in coal chemical industries and suggests paying attention to the transformation opportunities of certain small and medium-sized construction companies [1] Summary by Sections Real Estate and Construction Data - From January to April 2025, real estate sales area decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 23.8% and construction area down by 9.7% [2] - In the same period, the completion area saw a year-on-year decline of 16.9% [2] Cement Industry - Cement production in the first four months of 2025 was 495 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, with April's production down by 5.3% [3] - The average cement shipment rate was 36%, remaining stable year-on-year, but the price pressure continues due to weak market demand [3] Glass Industry - Flat glass production from January to April 2025 was 31.86 million weight boxes, down 4.8% year-on-year, with April's production also declining [4] - The market demand for float glass was weak, leading to increased inventory levels among producers [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and engineering sector [6] Core Insights - The construction sector experienced its first annual revenue decline in 2024, with a YoY decrease of 4.10%, and a net profit decline of 14.4% due to multiple pressures including a slowdown in real estate construction and traditional infrastructure investment [1][15] - The sector is expected to enter a phase of deep integration, with potential for performance improvement in the latter half of 2025 as policies take effect and the high base effect diminishes [1][21] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In 2024, the construction sector's revenue was 8.7 trillion yuan, marking a YoY decline of 4.10%, while net profit was 168.9 billion yuan, down 14.4% [15] - The sector's gross profit margin improved slightly to 10.96%, but the net profit margin decreased to 1.94% [15][24] Financial Performance - The sector's financial expenses increased, leading to a decline in net profit margins, with a financial expense ratio of 0.86%, up 0.11 percentage points YoY [2][39] - The cash flow situation showed a net outflow of 209.7 billion yuan, a reduction of 22 billion yuan YoY, indicating some improvement in cash flow management [2][46] Subsector Analysis - Among the subsectors, only international engineering saw a profit increase of 5.5%, while other subsectors like large-scale infrastructure and chemical engineering experienced declines of 11.5% and 1.2%, respectively [3][52] - The resilience of large state-owned enterprises in the international market contrasts with the significant pressures faced by smaller and private firms [3][52] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend value state-owned enterprises such as China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and Sichuan Road and Bridge, which are expected to benefit from stable demand and improving cash flow [5][9] - The report highlights growth opportunities in specialized engineering sectors, particularly in data centers and cleanroom engineering, which are anticipated to see rapid demand growth [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction and building materials industry [6] Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in building materials retail, with expectations for the impact of policy implementation to support demand in the construction sector [1][2] - Investment in infrastructure, real estate, and manufacturing has shown mixed results, with infrastructure investment continuing to rise while real estate and manufacturing investments have declined [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of recent monetary policy measures, including interest rate cuts and structural monetary policy tools, to stimulate domestic demand [1] Summary by Sections Real Estate and Construction - From January to April 2025, real estate sales and new construction starts saw a reduction in their year-on-year decline, with sales down by 2.8% and new starts down by 23.8% [2] - The report notes that the retail sales of construction and decoration materials reached 53 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [2] Cement Industry - Cement production from January to April 2025 was 495 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [3] - The average cement price in April was 398 yuan per ton, which is a 9.6% increase year-on-year [3] - The report indicates that the average cement shipment rate was 48.3%, with a slight increase from the previous month [3] Glass Industry - The flat glass production from January to April 2025 was 319 million weight cases, down 4.8% year-on-year [4] - The average price of float glass in April was 71 yuan per weight case, showing a slight month-on-month increase [4] - The report notes an increase in inventory levels for photovoltaic glass, indicating a potential oversupply situation [4] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the construction and building materials sector, including: - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039 CH) with a target price of 11.03 yuan - China National Materials (600970 CH) with a target price of 13.04 yuan - China National Chemical (601117 CH) with a target price of 9.03 yuan - Huaneng Water Cement (6655 HK) with a target price of 11.26 HKD [10][29]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Construction Industry**: Focus on Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical, Honglu Steel Structure - **Building Materials Industry**: Emphasis on consumer building materials and specific companies - **Environmental Industry**: Highlighting water and waste incineration sectors - **Pork Industry**: Analysis of pig prices and leading companies - **Agriculture Sector**: Focus on Haida Group - **Banking Sector**: Analysis of Ningbo Bank - **Media Sector**: Overview of the media industry and specific companies - **Steel Industry**: Insights on major steel companies - **Sportswear Industry**: Analysis of Anta Sports - **Liquor Industry**: Overview of the liquor market and key players Core Points and Arguments Construction Industry - **Sichuan Road and Bridge**: Expected to benefit from the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle strategy, with a projected dividend yield of 6.2% in 2025 and a 25% upside potential in market value [1][3][4] - **China Chemical**: Strong overseas order growth, particularly benefiting from Xinjiang coal chemical construction, with a projected order volume of 400-500 billion [1][3][4] - **Honglu Steel Structure**: Anticipated 30%+ growth in performance due to improved export expectations and smart production efficiencies [1][4] Building Materials Industry - **Consumer Building Materials**: 2025 is expected to be a bottom year, with 2026 as a turning point due to resilient second-hand housing market demand [1][6][7][8] - **Key Companies**: Focus on Beixin Building Materials and Yilong Co., with projected growth rates of over 30% [1][9] Environmental Industry - **Water and Waste Incineration**: High dividend yield sectors, with water pricing reforms expected to enhance profitability [1][10][11][12] - **Specific Companies**: Hongcheng Environment and Hanlan Environment recommended for their stable growth and high dividend rates [1][12][13] Pork Industry - **Price Trends**: Pig prices are expected to remain above the breakeven point, with leading companies like Muyuan and Wens becoming attractive investment targets [1][16] Agriculture Sector - **Haida Group**: Projected significant growth in overseas markets, with a focus on expanding production capacity [1][17] Banking Sector - **Ningbo Bank**: Strong long-term investment value with a projected PB of 0.7x and a net interest income growth of over 15% [1][18][20] Media Sector - **Overall Performance**: The media sector has shown significant recovery, with recommended stocks including Mango Super Media and Kaiying Network [1][25][26][28] Steel Industry - **Current Trends**: High capacity utilization and stable smelting profits, with recommended stocks including Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and Hualing [1][36][40][41][42][43] Sportswear Industry - **Anta Sports**: Expected to achieve double-digit revenue growth over the next three years, with a stable dividend policy [1][32][33] Liquor Industry - **Market Recovery**: Major liquor companies like Moutai and Wuliangye are expected to maintain stable growth, with a focus on dividend policies [1][34][35] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Environment**: Current market conditions are characterized by unpredictable external changes, making long-term value investment strategies more favorable [2] - **Investment Opportunities**: Emphasis on identifying undervalued stocks across various sectors, particularly in the context of changing economic conditions and consumer demand [1][31]

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 gszqdatemark 2025 05 19 年 月 日 投资策略专题 【行业联合推荐】重回价值投资 A 股市场定价逻辑正经历从短期估值博弈向长期价值投资的系统性切换。 伴随中长期资金占比提升与短期投机资金退潮，市场波动率显著收敛，企 业盈利质量（ROE）对股价的驱动作用持续强化。当前，资金面阶段性收 紧与公募新规的长周期考核要求，进一步抑制题材炒作惯性，引导资金流 向盈利稳定、估值合理的价值型资产。市场逐步回归基本面定价，具备可 持续竞争优势的企业将赢得长期资本青睐。 一、为什么当下重提价值投资？ A 股波动缩小、资金面缩紧、及公募新规的推出下，更多资金将为价值投 票。过往 A 股波动大，PE 变化是主导回报率的核心因素，但近年来 A 股 波动性持续缩小，市场逐渐转向 ROE 主导，价值相关的指数，在收益率表 现上明显占优。近来公募新规的推出，也倒逼资金从短期博弈重回长期价 值投资，未来更多资金将为价值投票。 二、价值投资定义-主要回报率来源于企业 ROE 和股东回报的投资策略 价值投资主要依靠企业盈利持续增长（ROE）或股东回报获取投资收益。 根据股市回报率公式，回报率来源可 ...

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