Group 1 - Hong Kong's retail sales in October increased by 6.9% year-on-year to HKD 35.2 billion, surpassing Morgan Stanley's and market expectations, driven by durable goods, online sales, and inbound tourist traffic [1] - Online sales reached HKD 5.2 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 27% and a month-on-month growth of 32%, with online sales accounting for a record 14.6% of total sales [1] - Strong performance was noted in luxury goods and electrical products in October, indicating potential upward movement for retail stocks such as Link REIT, Hysan Development, and Wharf Real Estate Investment [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley expects retail sales in November to grow by 5% year-on-year, supported by improved consumer confidence and promotional activities during shopping festivals [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Hong Kong's retail sales in October increased by 6.9% year-on-year to HKD 35.2 billion, surpassing Morgan Stanley's and market expectations, driven mainly by durable goods, online sales, and the influx of visitors [1] - Online sales reached HKD 5.2 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 27% and a month-on-month growth of 32%, with online sales accounting for a record 14.6% of total sales [1] - The positive retail sales data is beneficial for companies such as Wharf Real Estate Investment and Hysan Development, which saw stock price increases of 10% and 21% respectively over the past three months [1] Group 2 - Retail stocks like Link REIT, Hysan Development, and Wharf Real Estate Investment have high dividend yield advantages, and if retail sales continue to improve, there may be upward potential for their stock prices [1] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 5% year-on-year growth in retail sales for November, primarily due to improved consumer confidence and promotional activities during shopping festivals [1]

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2025年11月30日 | 狀態: 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | 公司名稱: | 希慎興業有限公司 | | | 呈交日期: | 2025年12月1日 | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | 不適用 | | FF301 第 1 頁 共 10 頁 v 1.1.1 FF301 II. 已發行股份及/或庫存股份變動 | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00014 | 說明 | 不適用 | | | | | | | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）數目 | | 庫存股份數目 | | 已發行股份總數 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,027,008,223 | | 0 | | 1,027,008,223 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | ...

证券研究报告 房地产 行业专题报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 27 日 证券分析师 邓力 SAC：S1350525070006 dengli@jzsec.com 陈颖 SAC：S1350525110002 chenying02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 楼市迎复苏新章，价值沐重估春风 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——香港楼市跟踪专题报告 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 年初至今中国香港（以下简称"香港"）楼市回暖趋势延续。1）成交规模稳步回升： 2025 年 1-9 月，香港一手/二手私人住宅成交量分别同比+25%/+19%，成交量分别 创 2020/2022 年以来的同期新高。2）房价出现企稳信号：9 月，香港私人住宅售价 指数同比+1.81%，房价同比结束了连续 43 个月的下跌。同时，中原城市领先指数 在 10 月继续上行，显示量价复苏趋势仍在延续。3）库存去化压力边际改善：截至 2025 年 Q2 末，一手私人住宅已完工未售及在建库存较 2024Q3 末的历史峰值下降 7%，对应 MA12 个月的销售去化周期为 65.3 个月， ...

Group 1 - The report highlights a significant transformation in the supply structure of the primary market for offshore bonds, with a notable shift from traditional city investment bonds to industry bonds, government bonds, and TMT bonds as the new mainstays [3][10] - The offshore bond market has seen a continuous expansion, with a total issuance of 1.24 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, although net financing from city investment bonds has sharply declined to only 422 million yuan [3][10] - The secondary market has experienced a decline in yields, with the 3-year offshore bond yield dropping approximately 40 basis points, outperforming domestic bonds [3][17] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the offshore bond market will continue to thrive in 2026, driven by two major changes: narrowing interest rate spreads and a shift in supply dynamics, necessitating more refined selection criteria for bonds [3][4] - The narrowing of the offshore-onshore interest rate spread has reached historical lows, with sovereign bonds at 10-25 basis points and credit bonds at 40-65 basis points, making it challenging to find excess returns [3][4] - The report emphasizes the need to explore investment opportunities in foreign government bonds and Hong Kong government bonds due to limited yield spread in domestic government bonds [3][48] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is favorable for Chinese dollar bonds, with expectations of 2-3 interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, targeting a rate of 2.75-3.00% [5][6] - The report suggests focusing on investment-grade dollar bonds and short-term securities to capture certainty in returns, as the credit risk has eased but remains present [5][6] - The investment strategy for 2026 includes a focus on high-grade offshore bonds, with an emphasis on long-duration bonds for insurance companies and high-grade foreign financial bonds for public funds [5][6] Group 4 - The report outlines the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" program, which has significantly enhanced market liquidity and investor participation [29][33] - The trading volume of RMB debt instruments has reached 2.13 trillion yuan by October 2025, accounting for over 90% of the total volume in 2024, indicating a robust market activity [29][33] - The report notes that the expansion of the "Southbound Bond Connect" has opened new channels for domestic investors to diversify their asset allocation [29][33]

Core Insights - UBS reports that the office market in mainland China faces challenges due to ample supply, while there are clear signals indicating a recovery in the Hong Kong office market [1] - UBS believes that the Grade A office market in Central Hong Kong is nearing its bottom as supply is expected to decrease between 2026 and 2027, which will benefit stocks with Grade A office business in Hong Kong [1] Summary by Category Hong Kong Office Market - The recovery of the Hong Kong office market is expected to continue benefiting companies such as Swire Properties (01972), Swire Pacific Ltd A (00019), Land Lease, Hysan Development (00014), and Henderson Land Development (00012) [1] - UBS indicates that the Grade A office market in Central Hong Kong is approaching a bottom due to a decrease in supply expected in the coming years [1] Shanghai Office Market - According to CBRE data, Shanghai office rents decreased by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 [1] - The supply of office space in Shanghai increased by 116,000 square meters due to the completion of two new buildings, while net absorption rose by 6.7% to 100,000 square meters [1] - UBS anticipates that 820,000 square meters of new supply will enter the Shanghai market in the next six months, and due to ample supply in the next two years, office rents in Shanghai are expected to continue declining next year [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports indicate that there are more clear signals suggesting a recovery in the Hong Kong office market, particularly in the Central district, with a projected decline in supply from 2026 to 2027 [1] Group 1: Market Recovery - The Grade A office market in Central Hong Kong is nearing a bottom, according to UBS [1] - The recovery in the office market is expected to benefit stocks with Grade A office business in Hong Kong, including Swire Properties, Swire Pacific, Land Lease, Hysan Development, and Henderson Land [1]

Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to perform well, with a focus on increasing investment in property developers for global portfolio diversification[3] - Residential market fundamentals are stabilizing, with a 2.5% increase in residential prices year-to-date due to a surge in primary market transaction volumes[5] - Rental prices have risen over 20% in the past two years, driven by an influx of international students and increasing demand for family housing[9] Group 2: Investment Demand - Hong Kong currently boasts the highest residential rental yield among major Chinese cities, nearing 3.7%, with local buyers responding positively to rising rental expectations[11] - Non-local buyers accounted for one in four properties sold this year, marking the highest proportion since the end of quantitative easing[11] - The supply of new residential units has significantly decreased, with sales dropping from a peak of 25,000 units per year to about 10,000, indicating a structural supply shortage[14] Group 3: Commercial Real Estate Recovery - Commercial real estate risks are stabilizing, with improved absorption rates for office spaces due to financial sector expansion and increased demand for prime locations[17] - Retail sales are recovering steadily, supported by inbound tourism and a stronger RMB, with expectations of reduced negative rental growth starting in Q3 2026[17] - The sector is expected to benefit from ongoing market improvements and anticipated interest rate cuts in the U.S.[17] Group 4: Attractive Valuations - Major listed developers have outperformed the Hang Seng Tech Index this year, with dividend yields often exceeding 5%[18] - The sector presents an attractive investment opportunity despite some positive factors already reflected in stock prices[18]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Hong Kong property market is showing signs of recovery, driven by improved funding conditions and stronger economic expectations, which are expected to enhance market sentiment and create a positive feedback loop between the stock and property markets [1][2]. - In October, the number of existing property mortgage registrations reached 6,463, a month-on-month increase of 7.1%, marking the third consecutive month above 6,000 registrations [1]. - New property mortgage registrations fell to 595 in October, a decrease of 44% month-on-month, primarily due to a reduction in the number of large new developments launched that month [1]. Group 2 - Citigroup forecasts a 3% increase in residential property prices in 2026, indicating the beginning of a multi-year upward cycle [2]. - The report from Citigroup highlights several factors contributing to the anticipated recovery in the Hong Kong real estate market, including improved profit margins on new sales, stabilization in retail sales, and robust performance of prime office spaces [1]. - Local property-related stocks in Hong Kong include Kowloon Development (01997), Hysan Development (00014), Hang Lung Properties (00101), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Link REIT (00823) [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong property market is showing signs of recovery, driven by improved funding conditions and stronger economic expectations, which may enhance market sentiment and create a positive cycle between the stock and property markets [1] - In October, the number of existing property mortgage registrations reached 6,463, a month-on-month increase of 7.1%, indicating a stable upward trend in the property market [1] - The number of new property mortgage registrations fell to 595 in October, a decrease of 44% month-on-month, primarily due to a reduction in the number of large new projects launched [1] Group 2 - Citigroup's report is optimistic about the Hong Kong real estate market, predicting a recovery post-2025, with residential prices expected to rise by 3% in 2026 and enter a multi-year upward cycle [2][3] - The report highlights that retail sales, particularly luxury goods, are performing better than the market average, with expectations of stabilization in the mass market starting from May 2025 [2] - The office market is expected to see increased competition in 2026 after a record completion of new buildings in 2025, but core area Grade A office buildings are anticipated to perform steadily [2] Group 3 - Local Hong Kong property-related stocks include Kowloon Development (01997), Hysan Development (00014), Hang Lung Properties (00101), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Link REIT (00823) [4]