华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 市场概述 微软AI支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 纳指跌0.72%。微软一度暴跌12%、收跌10%，创2020年以来最大日跌幅，市值蒸发是美股史上第二大。Meta大涨超10%。特斯拉跌超3%。周四美股盘后公 布业绩后，苹果一度涨超2%、闪迪大涨12%。 10年期美债收益率小幅下跌0.6个基点至4.233%。 币圈重挫。比特币大跌6%、至两个月低点。以太坊跌超7%、跌破2800美元。 金价早盘曾大涨3.3%、逼近5600美元历史高位后跳水，一度较日高暴跌近9%，随后跌幅收窄。白银创下121美元的历史新高后，一度重挫超12%。铜价一度 大涨超11%，随后涨势回落、日内纽铜仍涨超6%。美伊局势支撑原油三连涨、日内涨3%，美油站上65美元。 亚洲时段，沪指震荡收涨，白酒爆发、贵州茅台涨逾8%，地产大涨，恒科指跌1%，芯片调整，沪金银铜飙升。 要闻 中国 习近平会见英国首相斯塔默。中英双方在英国首相斯塔默访华期间达成一系列积极成果。 外交部回应：中国已批准进口首批英伟达H200人工智能芯片？黄仁勋：此次访华行程"非常成功" ...

马斯克说，台积电（2330）、三星及美光等现有供应商，供应特斯拉的芯片量都无法达到该公司所需的 水准，"这对确保我们能抵御地缘政治风险将非常重要。"特斯拉目前主要向三星电子与台积电采购芯 片。 目前还不清楚这座"TeraFab"晶圆厂将设于美国何处，以及具体时程为何。马斯克只有透露，这座晶圆 厂会涵盖制造逻辑芯片、存储器以及封装，特斯拉未来将就TeraFab发出"更重大的公告"。 特斯拉执行长马斯克警告，未来三到四年的成长恐受AI与存储器芯片供应所限，因此必须兴建并自行 营运他形容的超大型晶圆厂"TeraFab"，用来制造半导体。这意味特斯拉将再次跨足电动车业务以外的 领域。 马斯克28日在财报会议上表示，"为了消除三到四年后可能出现的产能瓶颈，我们将必须建造一座特斯 拉TeraFab。""将是一座非常大型的晶圆厂，涵盖逻辑芯片、存储器以及封装，而且会设在国内。" ...

Group 1 - The State Council of China has issued a work plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, which includes optimizing loan interest subsidy policies for service industry entities and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit support for these sectors [1][5] - The work plan outlines 12 specific measures aimed at stimulating development in key areas such as transportation, housekeeping, and the automotive aftermarket, thereby reducing uncertainties for enterprises entering and expanding in the service consumption market [5][22] Group 2 - The Ministry of Civil Affairs is exploring the establishment of a civil affairs technology innovation fund through investment financing and charitable donations to support the research and industrialization of suitable technology products [2][18] - The goal is to enhance the innovation system by 2030, increase technological investment, and improve innovation levels, ultimately leading to breakthroughs in key technologies and the emergence of leading talents and enterprises in civil affairs technology [2][18] Group 3 - There is a significant performance divergence among funds labeled as "cyclical," with some funds focusing heavily on the non-ferrous sector for maximum elasticity, while others adopt a diversified approach across multiple cyclical areas for varied returns [3][19] - This divergence raises questions about fund positioning and the active management capabilities of fund managers, with market expectations influencing single-strategy approaches [19] Group 4 - Major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, have opted to maintain current interest rates, indicating a slowdown in the pace of global interest rate cuts, which could have significant implications for global asset allocation [4][21] - The Federal Reserve's decision to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% reflects internal divisions, with some members advocating for a rate cut, highlighting the challenges of maintaining independence amid political pressures [6][23] Group 5 - The demand for optical fiber in the telecommunications industry is surging due to the construction of AI data centers, with Meta committing to pay $6 billion for fiber optics from Corning by 2030 [7][24] - The rapid growth of AI applications is expected to drive higher bandwidth requirements, influencing the demand trajectory for optical fiber and related industries [24] Group 6 - The REITs market is witnessing innovation with the launch of mixed-asset REITs, as demonstrated by the recent expansion of the Zhonghang Jingneng photovoltaic REIT, which combines hydropower and solar assets [8][25] - This development marks a significant step in diversifying public REITs and revitalizing dormant assets [25] Group 7 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is addressing "involution" in the photovoltaic industry by promoting coordinated efforts to regulate competition and enhance industry standards [9][26][27] - The focus is on using market-oriented and legal methods to foster healthy competition and rational development within the photovoltaic sector [27] Group 8 - The consumer electronics industry is facing a cost defense battle due to skyrocketing storage prices, with major companies like Samsung and SK Hynix raising NAND flash supply contract prices by over 100% [10][28] - The ongoing supply tightness in DRAM is also contributing to rising prices, impacting the overall cost structure of consumer electronics [28] Group 9 - The Norwegian Government Pension Fund Global reported a 15.1% return in 2025, with its total assets reaching approximately 15.47 trillion RMB, highlighting the fund's robust performance [11][29] - This fund is one of the largest sovereign wealth funds globally, indicating strong investment management capabilities [29] Group 10 - China is planning to expand its "space+" future industries, focusing on commercial space applications and infrastructure development, which includes initiatives in space resource management and space tourism [12][30] - The China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation is leading these efforts, aiming to foster collaboration across the industry chain [30] Group 11 - The China Commercial Rocket Corporation is preparing for the first flights of reusable rockets this year, emphasizing the importance of resource coordination and successful recovery operations [13][31] - This initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance China's capabilities in commercial spaceflight [31] Group 12 - The AI industry is experiencing a surge in new model releases, with major companies like Tencent and Baidu competing for application traffic through significant promotional efforts [14][32] - The release of advanced AI models, such as Alibaba's Qwen3-Max-Thinking, reflects the rapid evolution and competitive landscape of the AI sector [32] Group 13 - The chemical sector is gaining attention in the A-share market, with chemical ETFs seeing significant growth in their share volumes as the sector aligns with cyclical market trends [15][33] - The recovery of profitability in the chemical industry is enhancing its appeal for investment, particularly in the context of "anti-involution" strategies [33] Group 14 - Several banks have adjusted the margin requirements for personal clients trading in Shanghai Gold Exchange's deferred contracts, increasing the margin ratio from 44% to 60% for specific gold and silver contracts [16][34] - This adjustment reflects changing market conditions and regulatory responses within the financial sector [34]

Group 1 - China and the UK have reached several cooperative outcomes, including the establishment of a financial working group and a reduction in whisky import tariffs from 10% to 5% [3][6] - The gold and silver markets have experienced significant volatility, with gold prices reaching nearly $5600 per ounce before dropping close to $5100, while silver prices fluctuated between $117 and $121 before falling below $107 [3][6] - Apple's Q1 2026 revenue grew by 16% year-on-year to $143.76 billion, with iPhone revenue at $85.27 billion and earnings per share at $2.84, both setting historical records [3][6] Group 2 - SpaceX and xAI are reportedly in talks for a merger, preparing for an IPO later this year, which would integrate Musk's various ventures into a single entity [4] - The Chinese government has introduced a plan to stimulate service consumption, outlining 12 policy measures across key sectors such as transportation and tourism [5][6] - The A-share market saw a significant rise in the liquor sector, with Kweichow Moutai's stock increasing by 8.61% in a single day [6] Group 3 - The U.S. Senate failed to advance a funding bill, putting the federal government at risk of a shutdown [17] - The global gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons in 2025, with investment demand hitting a milestone of 2175 tons [22] - Samsung Electronics reported a 209.2% year-on-year increase in operating profit for Q4 2025, setting a new record for quarterly performance [20]

1月29日，挪威央行投资管理（Norges Bank Investment Management）正式发布 2025 年年度投资报告。 数据显示，全球最大主权财富基金之一的挪威政府全球养老基金（Government Pension Fund Global，GPFG）在2025年实现15.1%的整体回报率，基金规模 于2025年12月31日达到21.268万亿挪威克朗（约合15.47万亿人民币）。 从基金规模变动细节来看，2025年基金会计收益达2.362万亿克朗（约1.72万亿人民币），但受挪威克朗对多国主要货币升值影响，汇率因素导致基金价值 缩水。同时，扣除管理费用后的资金净流入为319亿克朗，多重因素共同作用下，基金全年规模净增1.526万亿克朗。 从资产类别表现来看，权益类投资成为基金收益的核心驱动力。2025年，基金股票投资回报率高达19.3%，显著跑赢其他资产类别。其中，科技、金融及 基础材料板块表现尤为突出，贡献了权益投资的主要收益。挪威央行投资管理首席执行官尼古拉・丹根（Nicolai Tangen）在声明中强调："2025年基金交 出了极具说服力的成绩单，科技、金融与基础材料领域的优质股票持续 ...

·美银：澳储行通胀预测失误或将促使其加息 ·德商银行：沃勒投反对票意在角逐美联储主席之位 ·世界黄金协会：全球黄金ETF增持空间仍大 ·日美联合支撑日元概率不大且成效存疑 ·韩元即将迎来13年来最长的连续上涨 ·印度卢比再创历史新低 ·Optimal Economics：澳储行今年或将完全逆转2025年的降息举措 【机构分析】 ·德国商业银行经济学家指出，美联储理事沃勒对美联储维持利率不变的决定投下反对票，应被视为其 角逐美联储主席职位的一次行动。若拒绝特朗普强烈要求的降息，可能会大幅降低沃勒的获选概率。在 预测市场上，目前沃勒的支持率仍落后于贝莱德高管里克·里德尔及前美联储理事凯文·沃什。Principal Asset Management全球首席策略师希玛·沙阿表示，随着时间推移，沃勒关于政策需要更接近中性立场的 论点可能会获得更多支持——尤其是在劳动力市场降温迹象变得更加确凿且通胀下行趋势持续的情况 下。 ·周四，印度卢比汇率跌至历史最低点。持续疲弱的外资流动以及企业对冲汇率进一步贬值风险的急切 行为，共同压制了经济基本面的积极影响。卢比兑美元汇率跌至91.9850，打破了上周创下的91.9650的 历 ...

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI and data expansion, with rising prices for raw materials like metals increasing production costs for many chip companies, leading to a widespread price increase trend in the industry [2]. Price Increase Summary - Since the beginning of 2026, several companies in the semiconductor industry have raised prices for various products: - **Chip Design**: - January 27: Zhongwei Weiying increased prices for MCU and Norflash by 15%-50% [3] - January: Guokewai raised prices for KGD products by 40% for 512Mb, 60% for 1Gb, and 80% for 2Gb [3] - January 12: Zhongke Xinyi increased prices for some chip products by 10%-15% [3] - January 19: Fumanwei raised prices for LED display products by over 10% [3] - January 1: Yangzhou Jinxinwei increased prices for double-sided silver chips by 10% [3] - **Storage Chips**: - NAND flash prices increased by over 100% [3] - Samsung Electronics reported a price increase of over 80% for LPDDR memory used in iPhones in Q1 2026 [4] - SK Hynix reported a price increase close to 100% for the same LPDDR memory in Q1 2026 [4] - **Wafer Testing and Packaging**: - ASE increased prices for back-end wafer testing by 5%-20% in early 2026 [4] - **Passive Components**: - Yageo raised prices for some resistor products by 15%-20% starting February 1 [4] - Huaxinke increased prices for resistors across all values from "0201" to "1206" without specifying the increase [4]

全球两大DRAM芯片制造商三星电子与SK海力士周四发出警告，由AI数据中心建设驱动的强劲需求， 正在挤占用于传统消费电子产品的存储芯片产能，这可能导致全球PC与智能手机面临供应短缺。 这两家合计占据全球约三分之二DRAM市场份额的巨头表示，为优先满足利润率更高的高端服务器存储 芯片（如HBM）订单，用于个人电脑和手机的常规DRAM芯片供应将持续紧张。苹果等主要消费电子 品牌是其核心客户，供应链风险正在积聚。 这一结构性转变已迫使市场研究机构下调行业预期。IDC与Counterpoint近期将2026年全球智能手机销 量预测从增长调整为至少萎缩2%，并将PC市场预期从增长下调为萎缩至少4.9%。在AI基础设施投资 热潮下，消费电子制造商正面临利润挤压与供应链不稳定的双重挑战。 PC和手机厂商陷入供应困境 产能向AI芯片倾斜 当前AI基础设施建设的激烈竞争，正引导全球主要芯片制造商将产能战略性地转向利润率更高的高带 宽内存（HBM）等AI服务器专用产品，这一结构性调整导致用于传统消费电子领域的常规DRAM芯片 供应持续遭受挤压。以三星电子为例，其在第四季度已明确优先保障服务器客户的需求，并计划在未来 继续提升AI ...

1. 1月29日(周四)美股盘前，美股三大股指 期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.12%，标普期货涨 0.22%，纳指期货涨0.19%。 2. 截至发稿，欧洲股市主要指数涨跌互现。欧洲斯托克50指数涨0.48%，英 国富时100指数涨0.78%，法国CAC40指数涨0.51%，德国DAX30指数跌0.77%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油 涨2.37%，报64.71美元/桶。布伦特原油涨2.17%，报68.83美元/桶。纽交所 黄金涨4.1%，报5559.4美元/ 盎司。 市场消息 1、黑石集团筹备史上规模最大的IPO项目之一。 2、路透调查显示，铜市场2026年将 出现23.85万吨供应缺口，2027年缺口预计为11.6万吨。 3、国际现货黄金上方空单密集，美日下方多单 较远。 4、沙特和阿联酋在黄金贸易领域爆发地缘竞争，沙特拟从苏丹购买黄金挑战阿联酋主导地位。 个股消息 1、微软面临多重利空：Azure增速放缓、Xbox硬件收入同比下滑32%、诉讼案件频发、资本 开支375亿超预期、净利润依赖OpenAI；摩根大通等多家投行下调其目标价。 2、美国稀土USAR.O宣 布完成15亿美元私募融资。 3、特斯拉T ...

Core Viewpoint - Tesla's future growth may be constrained by chip production capacity, necessitating the construction of its own TerraFab mega fab to integrate various semiconductor manufacturing processes [2][5]. Group 1: Chip Supply Challenges - Elon Musk indicated that existing suppliers like TSMC, Samsung, and Micron are unable to meet Tesla's chip demand, which is critical for its AI, autonomous driving, and robotics projects [4][5]. - The need for Tesla to potentially produce its own chips has been emphasized, as it is seen as a major bottleneck in the competitive AI race [5]. Group 2: TerraFab Mega Fab - The proposed TerraFab will consolidate logic processes, memory semiconductors, and advanced packaging, allowing for a comprehensive chip manufacturing process [2]. - Establishing such a facility will require a significant investment, potentially amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars, and will take considerable time to become operational [5]. Group 3: Strategic Expansion - This initiative represents Tesla's expansion beyond its core electric vehicle business, highlighting its commitment to securing chip supply for future technological advancements [2].