Core Viewpoint - Despite stable growth in revenue and profit margins, the valuation of Xtep International (01368) remains stagnant, raising questions about potential investment opportunities and risks in the market [1][12]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Xtep's main brand achieved mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales, while its second growth brand, Saucony, saw over 40% year-on-year growth [1]. - Over the past five years, Xtep's revenue and net profit have compounded at rates of 13.53% and 24.64%, respectively [1]. - The company has maintained a consistent dividend policy, with a proposed final dividend of HKD 0.095 per share for 2024, leading to a total dividend of HKD 0.156 per share, a year-on-year increase of 221.7% [1]. Profitability Metrics - Xtep's gross margin improved from 38.9% to 43.2%, and net margin increased from 7.2% to 9.1% over the past five years [1][3]. - Return on equity (ROE) nearly doubled from 7.3% to 14.1% during the same period [1][3]. Cost Management - The overall expense ratio has remained stable, with advertising and promotion costs increasing but offset by optimized employee costs [2]. - In 2024, the combined advertising, employee, and R&D expense ratios were 26.3%, a slight increase of approximately 0.7 percentage points from 2020 [2]. Cash Flow and Debt - Xtep has strong cash flow, with an average net cash flow from operating activities exceeding RMB 1.2 billion over the past two years [5]. - As of December 2024, cash equivalents totaled RMB 2.98 billion, with short-term and long-term interest-bearing debts of RMB 1.16 billion and RMB 0.867 billion, respectively [5]. Brand Performance - Xtep operates two main brands: the mass-market brand Xtep and the high-end professional sports brand Saucony, with over 6,382 stores as of 2024 [7]. - The mass-market brand contributes over 90% of revenue, while Saucony's revenue share has increased significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 104.3% from 2020 to 2024 [7][8]. Market Position and Valuation - Xtep's profitability is lower compared to peers, with accounts receivable as a percentage of revenue at 33.9%, significantly higher than competitors like Anta and Li Ning [5][6]. - Despite a lack of standout performance compared to industry leaders, Xtep's dual-brand strategy and consistent dividend payouts suggest limited downside in valuation [12]. Analyst Sentiment - Investment banks generally have a positive outlook on Xtep, with target prices above the current market price, indicating potential for future growth [11].

生物基产业下游市场需求在哪里？终端品牌想要的生物基解决方案是什么？ 2025（第十届）生物基大会暨展览（Bio-based 2025，5月25-27日，上海） 立足终端可持续转型与 实际需求，将邀约 100+终端品牌参与 ，并关注其可持续规划与生物基材料需求。 现公布 近40家终端品牌 ，如下图所示。品牌涉及 运动鞋服、纺织工业、汽车与零部件、消费品与商 超、胶黏剂、电子等 ，企业将携相关需求而来。部分企业负责人将参与 大会演讲 、 圆桌交流 、 战略 研讨会 以及 终端品牌需求对接会 ！欢迎生物基材料解决方案企业参与洽谈！ 下游市场需求在哪里? 终端想要的生物基解决方案? |已确认出席品牌 | ANTA | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 波司登 | 安踏 | 李宁 | 特步 | | 中纺院 | | ESQUEL GROUP | | | | | | | 桐昆集团 | | 同辉纺织 | 溢达纺织 | 小鹏汽车 | 蔚来汽车 | | () 零跑汽车 | | ZEEKR | | | | | 上汽大众 | 零跑汽车 | 极氪汽车 | 非를 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][25] Core Views - The company's main brand shows steady growth, with a notable performance in professional sports, particularly in the children's segment, which is growing faster than the adult segment [6] - The company plans to optimize its multi-brand matrix by focusing on core running business and transitioning to a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the professional sports sector [6] - The company has healthy inventory levels and stable discount rates, maintaining its annual profit growth guidance of over 10% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 143 billion RMB - FY2024: 136 billion RMB - FY2025E: 146 billion RMB - FY2026E: 158 billion RMB - FY2027E: 169 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 10.3 billion RMB - FY2024: 12.4 billion RMB - FY2025E: 13.7 billion RMB - FY2026E: 15.0 billion RMB - FY2027E: 16.3 billion RMB - The company expects a gross margin improvement, with projections of 42% in FY2023, increasing to 45% by FY2027 [5][6][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand in Q1 2025, with retail discounts ranging from 7% to 75% and channel inventory turnover of approximately four months. The subsidiary brand, Saucony, achieved over 40% year-on-year growth in retail sales [1]. - The company has been actively promoting public health and sports development since 2007, sponsoring 44 top marathon and road running events across China in 2024, including the prestigious Xiamen Marathon [2]. - The company aims to enhance its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business model to foster deeper and more personalized interactions with customers, thereby increasing brand loyalty and retention rates [3]. - Saucony has quickly become a prominent player in the running market, ranking among the top three in terms of wearing rates in Chinese marathons. The DTC strategy has driven over 100% compound annual growth in the professional sports segment's revenue from 2020 to 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 14.7 billion, RMB 15.8 billion, and RMB 17 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of RMB 1.36 billion, RMB 1.52 billion, and RMB 1.69 billion respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.49, RMB 0.55, and RMB 0.61, with PE ratios of 9x, 8x, and 8x [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand in Q1 2025, with retail discounts ranging from 7% to 75% and channel inventory turnover of approximately four months. The subsidiary brand, Saucony, achieved over 40% year-on-year growth in retail sales [1]. - The company has been actively promoting public health and sports development since 2007, sponsoring 44 top marathon and road running events across China in 2024, including the prestigious Xiamen Marathon [2]. - The company aims to enhance its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business model to foster deeper and more personalized interactions with customers, thereby increasing brand loyalty and retention rates [3]. - Saucony has quickly become a prominent player in the running market, ranking among the top three in terms of wear rate in Chinese marathons. The DTC strategy has driven over 100% compound annual growth in the professional sports segment's revenue from 2020 to 2024, achieving breakeven in 2023 [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 14.7 billion RMB, 15.8 billion RMB, and 17 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.36 billion RMB, 1.52 billion RMB, and 1.69 billion RMB respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.49 RMB, 0.55 RMB, and 0.61 RMB, with PE ratios of 9x, 8x, and 8x [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year increase in revenue in the single digits. The retail discount level is between 70-75%, and inventory turnover days are around 4 months, indicating stable operational quality [1][2]. - The e-commerce business is performing exceptionally well, with expected sales growth of over 20% due to the Spring Festival. The company is optimizing its store structure and plans to initiate a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation in the second half of 2025 to enhance retail efficiency [1][2]. - The company's subsidiary, Saucony, has become a new growth driver, with revenue growth exceeding 40% in Q1 2025. The brand has already surpassed 1 billion yuan in revenue in 2024 and is undergoing a brand revitalization process [2]. - For 2025, the company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of approximately 7% and a net profit growth of around 10% [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's projected financials for 2025 include: - Revenue: 14,519 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.9% - Net profit: 1,365 million yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.3% - Earnings per share (EPS): 0.49 yuan [4][3]. - The company is expected to maintain a Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 times in 2025, indicating a favorable valuation [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][5]. Core Views - The company has shown steady growth in Q1 2025, with a single-digit percentage increase in revenue for the main brand, and a healthy inventory turnover of approximately 4 months [1][2]. - The e-commerce segment is expected to perform exceptionally well, with anticipated growth rates exceeding 20% due to the influence of the Spring Festival [1][2]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its offline store structure while enhancing the efficiency of its retail operations, with plans to initiate a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) transformation in the second half of 2025 [1][2]. - The subsidiary brand, Saucony, has become a new growth driver, with a revenue increase of over 40% in Q1 2025 and a projected revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan in 2024 [2]. - The company expects a revenue growth of around 7% and a net profit growth of approximately 10% for the year 2025 [2]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected financials for 2025 include a revenue of 14.519 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.365 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9% and 10.3% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.49 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9 times [3][4]. - The company’s net asset return (ROE) is projected to be 13.6% in 2025, with a gradual decline to 12.4% by 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][3][7] Core Views - The company's main brand retail sales increased in the mid-single digits year-on-year in Q1 2025, with retail discounts ranging from 7.0 to 7.5, and a channel inventory turnover ratio of 4 months [2][3][4] - The Saucony brand saw retail sales growth exceeding 40% across all channels [2][3][6] - The management maintains a target of over 10% profit growth for 2025, with plans to transform 400-500 stores to a direct-to-consumer (DTC) model by the end of 2026 [6] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q1 2025, the main brand's retail sales increased in the mid-single digits, with online sales growing over 20% and offline sales showing low single-digit growth, primarily affected by foot traffic [4] - The retail discount for the main brand remained stable at 7.0-7.5, with an inventory turnover ratio of 4 months, indicating healthy inventory levels [5] Brand Growth - Both Saucony and Myle's brands experienced growth exceeding 40% in Q1 2025 [3][6] - The company focuses on the running category, leveraging its expertise to achieve steady sales growth for the main brand and rapid growth for professional sports brands [9] Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 1.402 billion, 1.485 billion, and 1.600 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [10][14] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 6.1-6.6 HKD, corresponding to a PE ratio of 11-12x for 2025 [9][10]

证券研究报告|港股公司点评研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 17 日 [Table_Title] Q1 主品牌中单位数增长，索康尼超 40% [Table_Title2] 特步国际(1368.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1368 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 7.13/4.15 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | 最新收盘价： | 4.71 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,774.56 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司公告 2025Q1 运营数据：Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长，折扣为七到七五折，渠道库存为约四 个月，25Q1 索康尼零售销售实现约 40%同比增长。 分析判断: 25Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长（1）分渠道来看，25Q1 零售流水中单位数增长，增速环比较 24Q4 高单位数增长有所下降；（2）从 ...

证券研究报告|港股公司点评研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 04 月 17 日 [Table_Title] Q1 主品牌中单位数增长，索康尼超 40% [Table_Title2] 特步国际(1368.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 1368 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 7.13/4.15 | | 目标价格： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | 最新收盘价： | 4.71 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 130.68 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,774.56 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 公司公告 2025Q1 运营数据：Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长，折扣为七到七五折，渠道库存为约四 个月，25Q1 索康尼零售销售实现约 40%同比增长。 分析判断: 25Q1 主品牌零售流水同比中单位数增长（1）分渠道来看，25Q1 零售流水中单位数增长，增速环比较 24Q4 高单位数增长有所下降；（2）从 ...