美联储理事米兰：认为我们今年需要降息大约一个百分点。 拉加德：欧央行正严密监控AI对就业市场的影响，目前尚未见裁员潮。 大家早上壕！ 先看海外要闻： 美股受科技股拖累，道指收涨0.03%、纳指收跌1.18%、标普500收跌0.54%；英伟达跌5.46%、AMD跌3.41%、特斯拉跌2.11%、谷歌A跌1.76%、 亚马逊跌1.29%。 谷歌：推出更快版本的最新图像模型Nano Banana 2，并将在谷歌旗下各产品中逐步上线。 苹果同意将三星存储芯片的价格提高100%。；库克暗示苹果将于下周一上午举行发布会。 美国稀土供应再恶化！部分航天与芯片被迫限产，钇价一年暴涨69倍。 容量碾压HBM 10倍！SK海力士联手闪迪，启动HBF全球标准化。 美乌在日内瓦举行会谈 为新一轮俄美乌三方会谈做准备 新一轮三方会谈将于3月初举行。 卫星图像显示美国11架F-22隐形战机抵达以色列。 Hetzner再次宣布涨价，云服务涨幅近40%。 奈飞拒绝提高收购华纳兄弟探索的报价，宣布重启股票回购计划，美股盘后一度涨13%。 国内重大事件汇总： 今日券商策略前瞻： 光大证券表示，短线指数或阶段性震荡，但市场情绪有望延续改善，至少结 ...

此外，此项决定的意义超越了非洲进出口银行与惠誉之间的双边关系，其核心在于捍卫一种将非洲 机构现实纳入考量范围的评估方法。对私营实体和泛非金融机构系统性地套用现有评级工具，重新引发 了关于传统评级方法是否适用，尤其是对具有多边使命的非洲机构是否具有相关性的争论。 对投资者而言，此项决定促使他们需要基于更精细的风险解读，运用那些融合了非洲多边银行所特 有的法律、制度和经济现实的分析工具。这一决裂可能鼓励开发更适应的评估框架，将国际评级和内部 分析相结合。 （原标题：非洲进出口银行终止与惠誉关系 重新引发非洲风险评估争议） "Ecofin通讯社"2026年1月23日报道，非洲进出口银行正式宣布终止与国际信用评级机构惠誉评级 的关系。该行表示："此项决定是基于对该关系的审查，以及非洲进出口银行坚信惠誉对其信用状况的 评估已无法准确反映对其组织协议、使命与职责的理解。"该行同时强调，其业务状况保持稳定，并获 得了主要由非洲国家以及非洲大陆公共和私营机构构成的股东群体的支持，其业务运营基于独特的法律 框架，该框架为其提供了强有力的法律保障。 2025年6月4日，惠誉将非洲进出口银行的长期信用评级从"BBB"下调至"BBB ...

荷兰法庭最新裁决维持安世半导体临时措施，闻泰科技深夜抗议。昨天晚间，闻泰科技公告称极为失 望、强烈不满。裁决自相矛盾，是基于片面不实信息作出的，持续的临时措施正对安世半导体造成不可 逆损害，危及上万员工、超2.5万家客户及全球产业链利益。公司表示将穷尽法律手段恢复完整控制 权。同日，中诚信国际宣布将闻泰科技主体信用等级由AA-调降至A、评级展望转为负面，"闻泰转 债"债项信用等级同步下调。公司此前披露2025年度业绩预告，预计归母净利润亏损90亿元至135亿元， 核心原因就是安世控制权受限导致的投资损失、资产减值损失。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth market is experiencing significant price increases, driven by tight supply and strong downstream demand, with a focus on investment opportunities in the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The three major indices opened slightly lower, while the China Rare Earth Industry Index rose by 2.17%, with key stocks like Shenghe Resources up by 8.16% and Yunlu Co. up by 7.83% [1]. - The China Rare Earth Price Index reached 265.43, reflecting an 11.37% increase over the past two weeks, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices rising by 12.64% [1]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Guoyuan Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities that combine "resources and high elasticity," particularly in light of potential supply disruptions from major overseas resource countries and the recovery of domestic demand [1]. - China Chengxin International forecasts that the non-ferrous metals industry will maintain high prosperity in 2026, driven by investments in power grids, renewable energy, and AI-related sectors, which will also benefit strategic metals like rare earths [2]. Group 3: ETF and Investment Tools - The Jiashi Rare Earth ETF (516150) closely tracks the China Rare Earth Industry Index, providing a convenient tool for investors to gain exposure to the domestic rare earth industry chain [3]. - Investors can also utilize the Jiashi Rare Earth ETF linked fund (011036) to capitalize on rare earth investment opportunities [4].

Core Insights - China's fiscal spending structure is shifting towards human investment, with a notable decline in infrastructure spending in 2024 [1] - The government is focusing on resolving existing hidden debts, leading to a reduction in new funds for infrastructure projects [5] - The decline in infrastructure investment marks the first annual negative growth since detailed statistics began in 2004 [5] Fiscal Spending Trends - In 2025, key infrastructure-related expenditures such as agricultural, urban community, and transportation spending are projected to decrease by 13.2%, 5%, and 0.7% respectively, resulting in an overall decline of approximately 7.8% compared to 2024 [1] - The total fixed asset investment in 2025 is estimated at 48.5 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment (excluding certain utilities) down by 2.2% [5] Debt and Investment Dynamics - The new special bond limit for 2025 is set at 4.4 trillion yuan, with only 2.5 trillion yuan allocated for infrastructure, a reduction of over 400 billion yuan from 2024 [5] - The focus on debt resolution and the decline in land transfer income are contributing to a shortage of funds for infrastructure projects [6] Future Outlook - For 2026, infrastructure investment is expected to rebound, with a projected growth rate of 8% due to the initiation of major projects and increased central budget investments [9] - Analysts predict a "bottoming out and structural reshaping" of infrastructure investment, with growth rates potentially returning to a range of 3% to 4.5% [10] - Central government support for infrastructure investment is anticipated to play a crucial role in stabilizing the economy in 2026, with some institutions forecasting a growth rate of 4.5% [11]

本地原煤需求方面，新疆煤化工产业正处在新旧动能转换期。短期内，以甲醇、尿素为主的传统煤化工 产量稳中有增，持续支撑化工用煤需求。2025年，新疆中泰百万吨甲醇等重点项目已相继投产。然而， 新疆现代煤化工项目普遍处于规划与建设阶段，虽长期前景广阔，但受限于较长的建设周期，其规模化 产能释放仍需时日。这导致当前原煤需求增长与未来产能提升之间，存在明显的时间差。 从供应侧看，2025年新疆原煤产量呈现"增长—回调—回升"的波动态势。年初至6月保持稳定增长，3月 产量达5146.6万吨，6月进一步提升至5392.3万吨。但进入下半年，在相关调控政策引导下，产量出现阶 段性回调。四季度以来有所回升，全年产量同比增长1.9%。 从需求侧看，结构性走弱是主要原因。煤炭下游消费行业集中度较高且相对稳定，主要集中在电力、钢 铁、建材、化工四大行业。中国煤炭工业协会公布数据显示，2025年前9个月，国内煤炭消费量38.1亿 吨，其中电力行业耗煤量为21.2亿吨，在煤炭消费总量中占比56.08%，是绝对主力。 然而，这一主力需求正面临结构性挑战。新疆煤炭交易中心分析，当前电力结构清洁化转型持续推进， 新能源发电的快速扩张对煤炭消费 ...

2026.01. 27 作者 | 第一财经 陈益刊 随着一揽子化解地方债务风险举措快速落地，地方债务高风险省份名单再次出现调整。 本文字数：938，阅读时长大约2分钟 根据中诚信国际研究院研报，退出债务高风险省份名单，需要在压减地方政府融资平台幅度、隐性债务率、 本地区金融债务占地区生产总值比重等满足相应标准。 而吉林显然经过努力，符合退出债务重点省份条件，因此官宣成功退出地方债务重点省份。 根据上述今年吉林省政府工作报告，吉林省2025年地区生产总值增长5%，地方一般公共预算收入增长 13.3%。 1月27日，吉林省人民政府新闻办公室披露的2026年吉林省政府工作报告（图解版）内容显示，当地成功退 出地方债务重点省份。 此前中国为了防范地方债务风险，将12个省份纳入债务高风险地区名单，这些地方的政府投资项目受到相 应约束。 而为了化解地方债务风险，2024年10月中国推出了一揽子总额12万亿元化债方案，并快速落地。受此影 响，近年来各省份地方政府隐性债务快速削减，债务平均利息成本降低超2.5个百分点，隐性债务主体—地 方政府融资平台公司加快剥离"政府融资"职能，纷纷宣布退出平台名单。财政部近日公开表示，随着 ...

退出债务高风险省份名单，需要在压减地方政府融资平台幅度、隐性债务率、本地区金融债务占地区生产总值 比重等满足相应标准。 随着一揽子化解地方债务风险举措快速落地，地方债务高风险省份名单再次出现调整。 1月27日，吉林省人民政府新闻办公室披露的2026年吉林省政府工作报告（图解版）内容显示，当地成功退出 地方债务重点省份。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞认为，退出债务高风险省份名单后地方投融资的行政性限制或有所减轻，有望推 动地区经济修复和发展，相关城投企业也会成为市场化经营主体，其债务将按市场化、法治化原则处理。但需 注意的是，退出重点省份后化债支持政策、资源倾斜将减少，区域内城投债的安全垫会削弱，机遇与风险并 存。地方政府需充分权衡利弊，确保具备自主化债能力之后再决定是否申报退出，平衡好化债与发展需求。 2025年政府工作报告明确提出，要动态调整债务高风险地区名单，支持打开新的投资空间。 根据中诚信国际研究院研报，退出债务高风险省份名单，需要在压减地方政府融资平台幅度、隐性债务率、本 地区金融债务占地区生产总值比重等满足相应标准。 而吉林显然经过努力，符合退出债务重点省份条件，因此官宣成功退出地方债务重点省份。 ...

Core Insights - The forum focused on the transformation direction of the bond market amid global economic slowdown and declining interest rates, emphasizing high-quality development in the bond market [2] - A key report titled "China Urban Investment Enterprises Comprehensive Development Index Research Report" was released, analyzing the current development status and future paths for urban investment enterprises during the "retreat platform" phase [2] Group 1: Forum Highlights - The event gathered over a hundred industry elites, including experts, financial institution executives, and corporate leaders, to discuss the bond market's future [2] - Keynote speeches were delivered by prominent figures, including the Executive Deputy Editor of Zhito Finance and the Chairman of Caitong Securities, setting the stage for in-depth discussions [2] Group 2: Urban Investment Enterprises - The discussion on "State-owned Enterprise Market-oriented Transformation and Regional Collaborative Development" highlighted the need for urban investment enterprises to balance debt reduction and development, addressing high debt levels and weak market competitiveness [4] - The transformation of urban investment enterprises has entered a new stage, moving beyond mere debt management to achieving substantial breakthroughs [4] Group 3: Innovative Financing Tools - The roundtable on "New Productive Forces Driving Industrial Layout and Financing Tool Innovation" featured insights on innovative financing tools such as sci-tech bonds, green bonds, and sustainable development-linked bonds [6] - The issuance scale of green bonds is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with China leading globally in both issuance and outstanding amounts of green bonds, indicating significant future growth potential [6]

Core Insights - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association and the China Securities Association jointly released the market-oriented evaluation results for credit rating agencies for the year 2025, aimed at promoting healthy competition in the industry and enhancing the quality of ratings, internal control levels, and service capabilities [1] Group 1: Evaluation Results - The evaluation focuses on compliance, internal control, professional quality, and service capabilities of participating agencies for the year 2024, excluding the creditworthiness and business qualifications of the institutions [1] - Among the 13 agencies using the issuer-paid model, the top 80% were classified as Category II, while the bottom 20% were classified as Category III [1] Group 2: Category II Institutions - A total of 10 institutions were classified as Category II, ranked by score as follows: China Chengxin International, Dongfang Jincheng, United Ratings, Fitch Bohua, Zhongzheng Pengyuan, Moody's Credit (China), Anrong Credit, Antai Credit, Dagong Global Credit Rating, and Dapxin Credit [1] Group 3: Category III Institutions - Three institutions were classified as Category III, listed as: Far East Credit, Shanghai New Century, and Beijing Koala Credit [1] Group 4: Future Directions - The two associations indicated that they will further improve the evaluation system under the guidance of regulatory authorities, continuously guiding rating agencies to enhance governance levels and rating quality, contributing to the high-quality development of the bond market [1]