证 券 研 究 报 告 双碳引领绿色转型，零碳园区试点先行 零碳系列报告一 证券分析师： 王璐 A0230516080007 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 傅浩玮 A0230522010001 朱赫 A0230524070002 2026.3.2 投资案件 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 3 2. 体系构建：碳评价+碳市场 行政及市场两手抓 3. 落地路径：源头绿色转型 零碳工厂/园区先行 1. 2030年碳达峰在即，十五五启动进入碳双控，推动全面绿色转型 15 25 35 67 90 98 100 103 101 101 106 99 105 106 0% -28.5% -37.0% -40.7% -48.1%-48.4% -50.9%-51.5%-51.5% -54.0% -65% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% - 20 40 60 80 100 120 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015 2016 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2030 碳排 ...

证券研究报告|行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 02 日 政策与电算协同共振，电力板块迎来价值重估 环保公用事业行业周报（2026/03/01） 周期/环保及公用事业 本周环保与公用事业板块涨幅靠前。环保（申万）行业指数上涨 6.96%，公用 事业（申万）行业指数上涨 5.69%，相对市场整体涨幅靠前。 ❑ 行业重点事件：国网公布 2025 年第 6 次可再生能源电价补贴转付情况。 ❑ 风险提示：政策落实低于预期、煤炭及硅料价格下跌、项目进展低于预期、 国际政治局势变化的风险等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 244 | 4.7 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 4372.7 | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3975.6 | 3.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 4.9 13.7 35.7 相对表现 4.8 6.3 16.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Mar/25 Jun/25 Oct/2 ...

必用意亦 券研究报 证券分析师 王璐 A0230516080007 wanglu@swsresearch.com 莫龙庭 A0230523080005 molt@swsresearch.com 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 博浩玮 A0230522010001 fuhw@swsresearch.com 联系人 朱赫 A0230524070002 zhuhe@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 算力对区域电力影响更大 地缘ł 短期气价或再现高波动 申万公用环保周报(26/2/23~26/2/27) 2026 年 03 月 02 日 版》 中文 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 电力：中国发电供给充裕，煤电托底高度匹配算力需求。截至 2025 年底，全国发电装机容量 389134 万千瓦，同比增长 16.1%。其中火电装机占比 40%，太阳能发电和风电装机容量分别同比增加 35.4%、22.9%，在风光的快速增长下，清 洁能源的占比大幅提高。发电量 2025 年 1-12 月份，规上工业发电量 97159 亿千瓦时，同 ...

股份發行人及根據《上市規則》第十九B章上市的香港預託證券發行人的證券變動月報表 | 截至月份: | 2026年2月28日 | 狀態: | 新提交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 致：香港交易及結算所有限公司 | | | | | 公司名稱: | 昆侖能源有限公司 | | | | 呈交日期: | 2026年3月2日 | | | | I. 法定/註冊股本變動 | | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 普通股 | 股份類別 | 不適用 | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 00135 | 說明 | | | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 16,000,000,000 | HKD | | 0.01 HKD | | 160,000,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | | HKD | | | | 本月底結存 | | | 16 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and environmental sectors, indicating a "Buy" recommendation for companies involved in these industries [1]. Core Insights - The power supply in China is abundant, with a projected installed capacity of 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%. The share of coal power is 40%, while solar and wind power capacities have increased by 35.4% and 22.9% respectively [2][6]. - The "East Data West Computing" project aims to establish a new computing network system, enhancing electricity demand in key provinces [8]. - Natural gas prices are expected to rise globally by 2025, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-demand dynamics [2][40]. - The report highlights the significant role of coal power in stabilizing electricity supply, particularly for high-energy-consuming digital infrastructure [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Sector - The installed capacity of power generation in China is projected to reach 389,134 MW by the end of 2025, with a 16.1% increase year-on-year. Coal power accounts for 40% of this capacity, while solar and wind power are rapidly growing [2][6]. - The overall clean energy share is increasing, with coal power contributing 65% of the total electricity generation [6][7]. - The "East Data West Computing" initiative is expected to drive higher electricity consumption in provinces like Guizhou, Zhejiang, and Hebei, with growth rates of 7.7%, 7.2%, and 7.1% respectively [8]. 2. Natural Gas Sector - Global natural gas prices are anticipated to rise by 2025, with the US Henry Hub spot price expected to average $3.51 per million British thermal units, a 59.7% increase year-on-year [40]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to increased volatility in gas prices [2][20]. - The report recommends focusing on integrated natural gas companies and those benefiting from lower costs and improved supply dynamics [41]. 3. Environmental Sector - The report discusses the introduction of subsidies for green hydrogen projects in Yunnan, which could accelerate the development of the hydrogen and ammonia industry [2]. - Companies such as CIMC Enric and others are recommended for their potential benefits from these developments [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of zero-carbon parks in enhancing green electricity consumption and reducing energy costs for computing enterprises [16].

Macro Insights - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to set the GDP growth target for 2026 at "4.5%-5%" and maintain a CPI target around 2%[6] - Key indicators to watch include whether the PMI can return to expansion territory and if the first quarter credit can achieve a "good start"[6] Market Performance - The overall market performance in January showed a 13.1% increase, while March saw a 31.4% rise, with a year-on-year increase of 82.3%[3] - The coal sector maintained a steady performance with a 11.3% increase in both January and March, and a 25.4% increase year-on-year[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from price increases, such as chemicals, steel, and energy, as well as companies involved in AI and technology[9] - Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Nanshan Aluminum, and Yanjing Beer, among others[9] Economic Indicators - The central bank's liquidity measures have led to a slight decline in deposit rates, maintaining a stable and loose monetary environment[14] - The carbon market saw a total transaction volume of 8.8 billion tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 587.2 billion yuan[23] Sector-Specific Trends - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from new policies in Zhejiang and Guangxi, promoting solid waste treatment and recycling[22] - The tourism market is projected to perform well throughout 2026, driven by ongoing policy support and consumer demand[26] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in external environments, policy effectiveness, and geopolitical tensions[6] - The coal market faces risks from domestic production exceeding expectations and downstream demand not meeting projections[34]

产业链相关业务优势协同，福建LNG 接收站有望贡献增量。公司目前运营中石油旗下江苏如东和河北 唐山2 座LNG 接收站，另外福建LNG 接收站在建，根据福州发改委预计将于2027 年投产，有望贡献业 绩增量；基于中石油长协资源，接收站负荷率有望保持高位稳定。受益于产业协同优势，产业链相关业 务有望持续贡献稳定盈利；上游勘探与生产业务持续收缩，价格波动对公司盈利的影响或进一步弱化。 盈利预测与评级： 我们预计公司2025-2027 年分别实现归母净利润60.74/62.76/66.06 亿元，2025-2027 年 EPS 分别为0.70/0.72/0.76 元/股，按最新收盘价对应PE 分别为11/10/10 倍。公司2025 年计划派息比例 45%，当前股价对应股息率4.3%。可比公司华润燃气、新奥能源、中国燃气2025-2027 年平均PE分别为 12/12/11 倍。公司城燃量增利稳，产业链相关业务贡献稳健盈利，分红回购彰显发展信心。首次覆盖， 给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：销气量增长不及预期、上游气源成本波动风险、LNG 接收站加工费调整 机构：华源证券 研究员：查浩/刘晓宁/邹佩轩 中石油旗下唯一天 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 | 燃气Ⅱ 港股|首次覆盖报告 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 豆鹏超 doupengchao@huayuanstock.com 秦雨茁 qinyuzhuo@huayuanstock.com | 基本数据 | 年 | 02 | 月 24 | 日 | 2026 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港元） | | | 8.35 | | | | | 一年内最高/最低（港 | | | 8.48/6.80 | | | | | 元） | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | 72,300.99 | | | | | 流通市值（百万港元） | | | 72,300.99 | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | ...

摩根大通发布研报称，维持对中国燃气公用事业的审慎看法，因预计其复盖公司的全年业绩或令人失 望，且今年展望改善空间有限。该行预期行业今年将维持低增长，基于燃气销量增长疲弱、新增住宅接 驳持续下跌及燃气利润率稳定。 同时，该行将香港中华煤气(00003)评级由"增持"下调至"中性"，目标价由原先7.25港元升至7.6港元，因 其股价自去年下半年上升后，目前估值相对合理。 该行的行业首选为昆仑能源(00135)，料股东回报率达6%(计及股息及回购)，且3月有机会上调派息比率 并公布新的股息计划；予"增持"评级，目标价由原先7.8港元升至9港元。 另外，新奥能源(02688)亦获"增持"评级，因目前其A股及H股价折让达33%；如私有化取得更多进展， 折让有望收窄。予新奥能源H股目标价由原先66.5港元升至72.5港元，新奥股份（600803） (600803.SH)A股目标价由原先17元人民币升至18.5元人民币，评级"中性"。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，维持对中国燃气公用事业的审慎看法，因预计其复盖公司的 全年业绩或令人失望，且今年展望改善空间有限。该行预期行业今年将维持低增长，基于燃气销量增长 疲弱、新增住宅接驳持续下跌及燃气利润率稳定。 该行的行业首选为昆仑能源(00135)，料股东回报率达6%(计及股息及回购)，且3月有机会上调派息比率 并公布新的股息计划；予"增持"评级，目标价由原先7.8港元升至9港元。 另外，新奥能源(02688) 亦获"增持"评级，因目前其A股及H股价折让达33%；如私有化取得更多进展， 折让有望收窄。予新奥能源H股目标价由原先66.5港元升至72.5港元，新奥股份(600803.SH) A股目标价 由原先17元人民币升至18.5元人民币，评级"中性"。 同时，该行将香港中华煤气(00003)评级由"增持"下调至"中性"，目标价由原先7.25港元升至7.6港元，因 其股价自去年下半年上升后，目前估值相对合理。 ...