Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the current market anxiety is primarily on the financial sector, with a notable sell-off spreading to the commercial real estate brokerage and services sector, indicating a lack of buyers even before the earnings report from CBRE [3][3]. Market Performance - The S&P 500 index closed flat at 6,942 points, with a significant sell order of $170 million executed at the end of the trading session [2][2]. - The Nasdaq index increased by 29 basis points, closing at 25,201 points, while the Russell 2000 index fell by 38 basis points to 2,669 points [2][2]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 13 basis points, ending at 50,121 points [2][2]. - Total trading volume on the NYSE reached 20.88 billion shares, surpassing the year-to-date average of 19.51 billion shares [2][2]. - The VIX (Volatility Index) dropped by 79 basis points to 17.65, indicating reduced market volatility [2][2]. - WTI crude oil rose by 169 basis points to $65.04 per barrel, while gold increased by 134 basis points to $5,092 per ounce [2][2]. Sector Dynamics - A systematic sell-off occurred in interest rate-sensitive stocks within the financial sector, excluding REITs, leading to further pressure due to position adjustments and deleveraging [3][3]. - There was a notable rotation in sectors, with software stocks experiencing a significant decline of 7.5%, while semiconductor stocks saw gains driven by positive data, with VRT up 25%, LSCC up 16%, and MU up 10% [3][3][3]. Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data showed a strong increase of 130,000 jobs in January, exceeding market expectations of 65,000 and previous rumors of 35,000 [5][5]. - Average hourly earnings rose by 40 basis points, higher than the expected 30 basis points, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below the anticipated 4.4% [5][5]. - The market is currently pricing in approximately two rate cuts for the year, with the first cut's timing pushed from June to July [5][5]. Trading Activity - Overall trading activity was rated at 4 out of 10, with a net buying flow of +133 basis points, significantly above the 30-day average of -81 basis points [5][5]. - Hedge funds recorded a net sell of approximately $1 billion, with sell-offs across all sectors, primarily in financials, technology, healthcare, and REITs [6][6]. Additional Insights - The overall trading flow exhibited a top-down driving characteristic, indicating sector-level buying and selling rather than individual stock movements [4][4]. - Adjustments to the "birth-death" model by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are believed to have inflated the employment data for January, which may increase volatility in future monthly employment growth [6][6].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated February 4, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the SP2605 contract of pulp futures was 5300 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5276 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4700 - 5600 yuan/ton, with the price remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5370 - 5380 yuan/ton [7] - Suzano announced a price increase of $10/ton in the Asian market in February 2026, and the external market quotation continued to rise. In November, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 pulp - producing countries in the world decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, softwood pulp decreased by 7.6% year - on - year, and hardwood pulp decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, with a significant decline in shipments to the Chinese market. In December 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports was 1.5086 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.6% and a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The total pulp imports in December 2025 were 3.113 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. As of January 29, 2026, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.1199 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.96% [8] - On the demand side, the pulp procurement rhythm of downstream paper mills slowed down, some small and medium - sized factories showed signs of closing for the holiday, and the trading atmosphere in the spot market became lighter. In the short term, pulp prices were restricted by the sector and weak downstream procurement, and the overall trend was a wide - range shock [8] Group 3: Industry News - On February 2, a fire broke out at Qian'an Boda Paper Co., Ltd. in Tangshan, Hebei Province. This fire was expected to cause short - term supply disruptions in the northern copy paper market. After the production line of Boda Paper stopped, the supply of copy paper in the North China region would directly decrease, and the market might experience a temporary supply shortage. However, the northern copy paper market was supported by the production capacity of leading enterprises such as APP, Sun Paper, Chenming Paper, and Asia Pulp & Paper, with sufficient overall supply elasticity. Since the fire only affected a single enterprise, it was not expected to cause a significant nationwide price fluctuation [9]

提价预期传导，浆纸行业更新推荐 20260201 摘要 对于全球商品浆市场及其供需情况有何看法？ 中国是全球商品浆第一大消费市场，占比接近 40%。近年来全球新增商品浆大 多发往中国市场。展望未来，中国三四月份将开启旺季，对浆价传导有支撑作 用。然而，2026 年国内头部纸企自制浆投产较多，如九龙等企业有大量自制 浆产能释放，加之国内港口库存维持高位，因此中国需求演绎存在弹性变量， 与终端需求程度挂钩。 欧美需求方面，我们保持乐观态度。欧洲和美洲合计占 全球商品浆需求体系约 40%。随着 26 年进入降息大周期，将利好欧美终端对 商品浆的需求量。从欧洲港口库存来看，自 25 年 10 月起已展现回落趋势，并 在四季度持续延续。因此，我们认为 26 年欧美需求将迎来修复。 供给方面， 26 年的新增供应压力显著放缓。目前预期仅 APP 在印尼 OKI 二期项目有投产 计划，但存在不确定性且可能延期。同时，由于前期供应压力，一些海外头部 浆厂纷纷宣布减产或转产计划，如 Suedzucker 年度检修计划及 Brsol 阔叶浆 转溶解浆生产。因此，从供给增量角度看，26 年整体偏乐观，新项目最快也要 到 27 年才 ...

投资逻辑 风险提示 原材料价格波动；下游需求恢复不及预期；新增产能投放过于密集 公司林浆纸一体化布局卓有成效，盈利表现穿越行业周期。公司核 心优势源于林浆纸一体化+三大基地协同的成本护城河、产品/原 料/工艺三重差异化与精细化运营控费，叠加产能与市场节奏精准 把控，保持行业领先的盈利能力。2015-2024 年，公司平均 ROE 为 14.96%，单吨纸浆净利润为 437 元/吨，保持行业领先水平。公司 把握行业走势能力出众，吨纸投资额较低，进一步强化较友商的折 旧成本优势。 纸浆供需格局有望好转，刺激纸价进入温和修复区间。国内纸浆投 产已近尾声+海外新增浆产能有限，浆价有望持续修复，构成纸价 上行的成本支撑。文化纸下游需求未有明显提升，且双胶纸仍有一 定新增产能投放，预计后续供需矛盾短期内仍难有实质性缓解，纸 企盈利关键在于上游深度布局林浆纸一体化、自制纸浆以增厚盈 利空间。箱板瓦楞纸未来需求增长集中在对进口纸的替代+限塑令 下环保纸包装需求增加上，头部纸企未来新增产能已较少，下游需 求支撑作用明显，供需关系持续改善下纸价有望稳步上行。 前期规划产能持续落地，未来业绩增长已有较高确定性。25-27 年， 公 ...

投资逻辑 公司林浆纸一体化布局卓有成效，盈利表现穿越行业周期。公司核 心优势源于林浆纸一体化+三大基地协同的成本护城河、产品/原 料/工艺三重差异化与精细化运营控费，叠加产能与市场节奏精准 把控，保持行业领先的盈利能力。2015-2024 年，公司平均 ROE 为 14.96%，单吨纸浆净利润为 437 元/吨，保持行业领先水平。公司 把握行业走势能力出众，吨纸投资额较低，进一步强化较友商的折 旧成本优势。 纸浆供需格局有望好转，刺激纸价进入温和修复区间。国内纸浆投 产已近尾声+海外新增浆产能有限，浆价有望持续修复，构成纸价 上行的成本支撑。文化纸下游需求未有明显提升，且双胶纸仍有一 定新增产能投放，预计后续供需矛盾短期内仍难有实质性缓解，纸 企盈利关键在于上游深度布局林浆纸一体化、自制纸浆以增厚盈 利空间。箱板瓦楞纸未来需求增长集中在对进口纸的替代+限塑令 下环保纸包装需求增加上，头部纸企未来新增产能已较少，下游需 求支撑作用明显，供需关系持续改善下纸价有望稳步上行。 前期规划产能持续落地，未来业绩增长已有较高确定性。25-27 年， 公司将有 170 万吨包装纸、47 万吨文化纸落地投产。且公司自制 浆保 ...

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Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper Holdings (02689) has seen its stock price rise over 20% in the month, reaching a new high of 7.35 HKD, driven by supply reductions and price increases in the paper industry [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's stock increased by 8.43% to 7.33 HKD, with a trading volume of 165 million HKD [1] - The stock price has reached its highest level since January 2023, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have undertaken large-scale maintenance shutdowns, actively reducing supply [1] - Companies in the white card and cultural paper sectors, such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper, have collectively announced price increases [1] - The appreciation of the RMB, which recently broke the 7 mark, is expected to lower the cost of imported pulp, thereby improving the profitability of the paper industry [1] - The industry has been in a prolonged bottoming phase, with a long-term trend of supply-demand improvement being established [1] - Attention is drawn to the potential impact of anti-competition policies in the paper sector and marginal changes in demand that could contribute to cyclical elasticity [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nine Dragons Paper (02689) has seen its stock price rise over 20% in the month, reaching a new high of HKD 7.35, driven by supply reductions and price increases in the paper industry [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - Nine Dragons Paper's stock rose by 8.43% to HKD 7.33, with a trading volume of HKD 165 million [1] - The stock price has increased over 20% within the month, indicating strong market performance [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have undertaken large-scale maintenance shutdowns, actively reducing supply [1] - Companies such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper have collectively announced price increases for white card and cultural paper [1] Group 3: Economic Factors - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi beyond 7 is expected to lower the cost of imported pulp, benefiting the profitability of the paper industry [1] - Bohai Securities notes that the domestic paper industry has a reliance on overseas pulp, and the currency appreciation will help improve profit margins [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan highlights a long-term trend of supply-demand improvement in the industry, with potential benefits from policies aimed at reducing competition and marginal demand changes [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the recent surge in Hong Kong paper stocks, particularly Nine Dragons Paper, which rose by 6.5%, marking a cumulative increase of 22% for the month [1] - Major packaging paper companies, including Nine Dragons, Shanying, Lee & Man, and Rongcheng, have initiated large-scale maintenance shutdowns to proactively reduce production capacity [1] - Several manufacturers of white card and cultural paper, such as Bohui, APP, and Asia Pulp & Paper, have collectively announced price increases [1] Group 2 - According to CICC, a short-term supply-demand gap for wood chips is expected to emerge by 2026, with a positive outlook for the recovery of wood chip and pulp price levels [1] - Despite recent large-scale domestic production of self-made pulp, the construction cycle for high-quality wood chip resources is lagging behind equipment production, leading to a projected supply gap in the domestic wood chip market by 2026 [1] - The tightening of raw material supply is anticipated to elevate cost pressures, while marginal improvements in demand could lead to a recovery in pulp price levels by 2026, benefiting leading companies with full supply chain capabilities [1]

中金发布研报称，造纸产业链目前呈现"资源端高度集中，加工端分散博弈"特征，纸浆作为稀缺禀赋资 源品、掌握强定价权。当前中国纸企已步入存量博弈成熟期，单纯靠资本开支驱动的增长难以为继，战 略核心已转向利用自有纤维对冲金融属性强的浆价波动。继续看好2026年"林浆纸一体化"龙头表现，在 资源约束与成本波动下，一体化是实现成本对冲与资源重估的核心。建议聚焦具备高纤维自给率、拥有 资源壁垒的"价值整合者"。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | --- | --- | --- | | 02689 | 玖龙纸业 | 6.890 10.42% | | 02314 理文造纸 | | 3.090 6.92% | | 01812 | 眉喝纸业 | 0.810 3.85% | 港股纸业股涨幅进一步扩大，其中，玖龙纸业大涨超10%刷新阶段新高，理文造纸涨近7%，晨鸣纸业 涨近4%。 消息上，近期，以玖龙、山鹰、理文、荣成为代表的包装纸企业大规模停机检修，主动收缩产能；博 汇、APP、万国纸业、亚太森博等白卡纸及文化纸厂商集体宣布涨价。这种"停机+涨价"的并存的现 象，凸显不同纸种在成本结构、供需关系和市场预期上的显著 ...