本文字数：1501，阅读时长大约3分钟 2025.11.12 作者 |第一财经 林靖 《中国统计年鉴2025》公布了2024年31个省份的人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率数据。出生率方面， 2024年有14个省份的出生率高于全国平均水平（6.77‰），其中，共有10个省份人口出生率超过8‰， 分别是西藏、宁夏、贵州、青海、新疆、海南、广东、云南、广西和甘肃，主要位于西部地区和华南地 区。从人口自然增长率来看，11个省份2024年人口自然增长率保持正增长，主要是西部省份和东部沿海 省份，分别是西藏、宁夏、新疆、云南、广西、贵州、青海、广西、广东、北京和福建，人口自然正增 长省份比上一年增加了3个。 从数据来看，一些出生率比较高的省份，同时也是近三年来常住人口增长的地区。这些省份主要分布在 西部地区和华南沿海地区。 从人口迁徙趋势看，长三角、珠三角成为人口迁移流入的主要地区。一方面，我国人口仍在向长三角、 珠三角等发达地区集聚；另一方面，在各省域内部，中小城市、农村人口继续向中心城市流动。 根据第一财经记者统计，近三年常住人口增量前五的城市分别是合肥、贵阳、杭州、长沙和郑州。其 中，4个来自中西部的省会城市。 其中 ...

Core Insights - Since 2022, China's population development has entered a reduction phase, characterized by declining birth rates, aging population, and regional population disparities [1] Population Growth by Province - In 2024, 11 provinces experienced positive population growth compared to three years prior, including Zhejiang, Guangdong, Xinjiang, Hainan, Jiangsu, Anhui, Guizhou, Fujian, Ningxia, Tibet, and Hubei [1] - Zhejiang led with an increase of 1.3 million residents over three years, with all cities in the province showing positive growth [1] - The balanced regional economic development and strong private sector in Zhejiang are favorable for labor absorption [1] Migration Trends - The Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are primary regions for population inflow, with migration from smaller cities and rural areas to central cities [1] - The top five cities for population growth over the past three years are Hefei, Guiyang, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Zhengzhou, with four being provincial capitals from central and western regions [1] Hefei's Population Growth - Hefei's population increased by 537,000 over three years, making it the fourth city in the Yangtze River Delta to exceed 10 million residents, reaching a total of 10.002 million in 2024 [2] - The city's industrial development, particularly in new sectors like electric vehicles and integrated circuits, has attracted young talent [2] Guiyang's Population Growth - Guiyang saw a population increase of 502,000, benefiting from the "strong provincial capital" and "strong talent" strategies, achieving over 100,000 net population growth for four consecutive years [2] Birth and Natural Growth Rates - In 2024, 14 provinces had birth rates above the national average of 6.77‰, with 10 provinces exceeding 8‰, primarily in western and southern regions [3] - Guangdong had a birth rate of 8.89‰, with a total of 1.13 million births in 2024, marking it as the top province for births for seven consecutive years [3]

Core Insights - Since 2022, China's population has entered a phase of decline, characterized by low birth rates, aging, and regional population disparities [2] - In the past three years, 11 provinces have seen an increase in permanent residents, with Zhejiang and Guangdong leading in population growth [2] - The trend of population migration shows that the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are major inflow regions, with smaller cities and rural areas continuing to migrate towards central cities [2] Population Growth by City - The top five cities with the highest population growth in the last three years are Hefei, Guiyang, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Zhengzhou, with Hefei leading at an increase of 537,000 residents [3] - Hefei has become the fourth city in the Yangtze River Delta to exceed a population of 10 million, driven by industrial development and the attraction of new industries [3] - Guiyang's population increased by 502,000, benefiting from the implementation of "strong provincial capital" and "strong talent" strategies [3] Birth and Natural Growth Rates - In 2024, 14 provinces had birth rates above the national average of 6.77‰, with 10 provinces exceeding 8‰, primarily located in the western and southern regions [4] - Eleven provinces maintained positive natural growth rates, with an increase of three provinces compared to the previous year, indicating a trend of population growth in these areas [4] High Birth Rate Provinces - Provinces with higher birth rates are also among those experiencing population growth, particularly in the western and southern coastal regions [5] - Guangdong's birth rate reached 8.89‰ in the previous year, with an increase of 100,000 births in 2024, maintaining its status as the top province for births for seven consecutive years [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the population growth trends in China, particularly focusing on the provinces of Zhejiang and Guangdong, which are leading in population increase despite a national decline [1][2] - Since 2022, China's population has entered a reduction phase, characterized by declining birth rates, aging population, and regional population disparities [1] - In the last three years, 11 provinces have experienced positive population growth, with Zhejiang and Guangdong showing the most significant increases [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang's population increased by 1.3 million over the past three years, with all its cities maintaining positive growth, attributed to its strong private economy and balanced regional development [1] - The top five cities with the highest population growth in the last three years are Hefei, Guiyang, Hangzhou, Changsha, and Zhengzhou, with Hefei leading at an increase of 537,000 [2] - Hefei has become the fourth city in the Yangtze River Delta to exceed a population of 10 million, driven by industrial development and the attraction of new industries [2] Group 3 - In 2024, 14 provinces had birth rates above the national average of 6.77‰, with 10 provinces exceeding 8‰, primarily located in the western and southern regions [3] - Guangdong's birth rate reached 8.89‰ in 2023, maintaining its status as the top province for births for seven consecutive years, with a total of 1.13 million births in 2024 [3] - The natural population growth rates in 11 provinces remained positive, indicating a trend of population increase in both western and eastern coastal provinces [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rate in Russia and the government's commitment to support young families as a response to this global challenge [3][4]. Group 1: Government's Stance on Birth Rate - President Putin highlighted that the decline in birth rates is a global challenge, particularly affecting developed countries, and Russia is not exempt from this issue [4]. - The Russian government aims to support families as a social foundation, promoting the idea that having three or more children should become a norm in society [4]. Group 2: Support for Families - The government is not advocating for "blind reproduction leading to poverty," but rather aims to address financial and human resource issues to support families [5]. - The state emphasizes that the decision to have children is a personal matter, and the goal is to inspire the younger generation to desire parenthood, with the assurance that the government will provide assistance when needed [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the declining birth rate in Russia and the government's commitment to support young families as a response to this issue [1][2]. Group 1: Population Policy - President Putin highlighted that declining birth rates are a global challenge, particularly affecting developed economies, and Russia is not exempt from this issue [2]. - The government aims to support families, especially those with three or more children, to make this a societal norm and a natural way of life [2]. Group 2: Government Initiatives - The main goal of national projects and planning is to achieve population growth, which is deemed crucial for the country's future [2]. - The government does not intend to pressure citizens into having children but aims to create an environment where young people aspire to parenthood, with assurance of state support when needed [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the declining birth rate in Russia as a global challenge, particularly affecting developed countries, including Russia itself [2] - President Putin highlights the importance of supporting families as the foundation of society, advocating for a cultural shift towards families with three or more children [2] - The government aims to facilitate population growth through various national projects and support systems, ensuring that financial and human resource issues are addressed [2] Group 2 - Putin clarifies that the state will not pressure citizens into having children, but rather aims to inspire a genuine desire for parenthood among the younger generation [2] - The overarching goal of all state initiatives is to ensure population growth, which is deemed crucial for the country's future [2]

Core Insights - Singapore's total population has reached a historic high of 6.11 million as of June this year, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, which is lower than the 2% growth rate of the previous year [1][1][1] Population Growth - The increase in Singapore's population is primarily attributed to the rise in the number of foreign workers, which has reached 1.91 million, reflecting a 2.7% growth compared to the same period last year [1][1][1] Aging Population - The report highlights an accelerated aging process, with the proportion of Singaporean citizens aged 65 and above rising from 13.1% in 2015 to 20.7% by 2025. Additionally, the number of citizens aged 80 and above has increased from 91,000 in 2015 to 145,000 this year, representing a 60% growth [1][1][1] Immigration Policy - Immigration is seen as a crucial factor in mitigating the impacts of aging and low birth rates on Singapore's population, with the government planning to maintain a moderate pace of immigration to prevent long-term population decline [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The macro leverage ratio in China has increased to 300.4% in Q2 2025, marking a significant rise from 298.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a growing debt burden associated with economic growth [1] - The rapid increase in debt levels in China is primarily driven by government departments and state-owned enterprises leveraging up [2][9] - The macro leverage ratio of China is projected to rise from 239.5% in 2019 to 286.5% by the end of 2024, showing the most significant increase among major economies [2][28] Group 2 - The leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises in China has shown a pattern of increase since 2022, reaching 139.4% by Q3 2024, driven by significant investments in emerging industries and high-end manufacturing [5][32] - The debt levels of state-owned enterprises are notably higher than those of non-state enterprises, with an average asset-liability ratio of 85.6% for state-owned enterprises compared to 78.3% for non-state enterprises [7][9] - Government leverage in China has risen from 59.6% at the end of 2019 to 88.4% by the end of 2024, contrasting with the trends in Germany, Japan, and the US, where government leverage has fluctuated [9][10] Group 3 - The nominal GDP growth in China has been slower compared to the actual GDP growth, which has implications for the macro leverage ratio as it is inversely related to the growth of nominal GDP [32][34] - The price levels in China have been declining, negatively impacting the growth of nominal GDP, which is crucial for managing the macro leverage ratio [36][37] - The efficiency of debt usage in China is under scrutiny, with suggestions for improving capital allocation and enhancing productivity to manage the rising leverage ratio effectively [38][44]

Core Insights - Brazil's population is projected to reach 213.4 million by July 1, 2025, reflecting a growth of 0.39% from 2024 and a 5.1% increase since the 2022 census [1][1][1] Population Distribution - São Paulo remains the most populous state with 46.1 million residents, accounting for 21.6% of the national population [1][1] - Minas Gerais follows with 21.4 million inhabitants, while Rio de Janeiro ranks third with 17.2 million [1][1] - Roraima is the least populous state with approximately 739,000 residents, but it has the highest growth rate at 3.07% [1][1] Future Projections - The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) forecasts that the population will continue to grow until 2041, reaching 220 million, after which a decline is expected starting in 2042, potentially dropping to 199.2 million by 2070 [1][1][1]