Report Overview - The report is the Shanghai Copper Industry Daily Report dated July 23, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated weakly, with an increase in open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index rebounded slightly but remained in the negative range. The domestic supply of copper may increase steadily and slightly, while demand is temporarily weak due to the seasonal consumption off - season. However, due to the strengthening of macro - policy benefits, the industry outlook is gradually being repaired. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract was 79,590 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,887 dollars/ton, down 32.5 dollars. The main contract's open interest in Shanghai copper increased by 6,169 to 172,895 hands, while the top 20 long - short positions decreased by 915 to 668 hands. LME copper inventory increased by 2,775 tons to 124,850 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 325 tons to 12,250 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory increased by 3,094 tons to 84,556 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 15,535 tons [2] Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,790 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 79,805 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan. The CU main contract basis was 200 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 months spread was - 68.24 dollars/ton, down 1.28 dollars. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price was 65 dollars/ton, unchanged, and the Yangshan copper average premium was 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC for domestic copper smelters increased by 0.34 to - 43.45 dollars/kiloton. The prices of copper concentrates in Jiangxi and Yunnan increased by 70 yuan/metal ton to 70,030 yuan/metal ton and 70,730 yuan/metal ton respectively. The processing fees for blister copper in the South and North remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper was 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 50 yuan/ton to 55,740 yuan/ton, and the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai remained unchanged at 68,100 yuan/ton [2] Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products was 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 291.1 billion yuan, up 87.114 billion yuan. The cumulative real - estate development investment was 46,657.56 billion yuan, up 10,423.72 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2] Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 11.59%, up 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.03%, up 0.01%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 13.12%, up 0.0072. The at - the - money option long - short ratio was 1.46, down 0.0735 [2] Industry News - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the new round of Sino - US negotiations may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded, expressing the hope that the US side would work with China to promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the Fed's independence in monetary policy and the responsibility for transparency and accountability. At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of real - estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.3%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reported that the global refined copper market had a surplus of 97,000 tons in May, compared with a shortage of 80,000 tons in April. In the first five months of this year, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 272,000 tons, similar to the surplus of 273,000 tons in the same period last year [2]

Group 1 - Country Garden Services announced a loan agreement to provide 1 billion yuan to its major shareholders to support the delivery of properties by Country Garden Group [1] - The loan has a term of 5 years with an interest rate of 5%, and the funds will be directed to Country Garden's domestic companies for property delivery [1] Group 2 - Greentown China reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 71 billion yuan for the first four months of 2025, with a total sales area of about 3.08 million square meters [2] - In April 2025 alone, Greentown's projects achieved sales of approximately 7.2 billion yuan from a sales area of about 530,000 square meters [2] Group 3 - Beijing Construction acquired a land plot in Huairou District for a base price of 359 million yuan, with a floor price of approximately 16,500 yuan per square meter [3] - The land plot covers an area of 16,086.425 square meters and has a building control scale of less than 21,717 square meters [3] Group 4 - China Merchants Shekou launched a new project, Zhonghai Chaoyang ONE, with larger unit types of 148 square meters and 152 square meters, totaling approximately 70 billion yuan in total value [4] - The project has received approval for 11 buildings and 594 units, with 64 units already signed at an average transaction price of 76,900.08 yuan per square meter [4] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective May 8, 2025 [5] - The new rates for first-time homebuyers will be 2.1% for loans of 5 years or less and 2.6% for loans over 5 years [5] Group 6 - The National Financial Regulatory Administration reported that the approval amount for "white list" real estate loans has increased to 6.7 trillion yuan, with a significant increase in personal housing loans in the first quarter of 2025 [6] - The first quarter saw an increase of over 750 billion yuan in real estate loan balances, with a year-on-year growth of 28% in housing rental loans [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the new personal housing loans in the first quarter of this year reached the largest quarterly increase since 2022, indicating a significant recovery in the housing market [1] - The total balance of real estate loans increased by more than 750 billion yuan in the first quarter [1] - Housing rental loans experienced a year-on-year growth of 28%, reflecting a rising demand in the rental market [1]