特朗普急于更换美联储主席的举动，背后究竟隐藏了什么意图？拜登则强调美国要继续作为世界领导者前进，并特别提到中国，这又透露了什么信息？17 号，特朗普发表全国讲话，回顾了自己过去11个月的成就，并详细阐述了未来三年的计划。讲话中，他明确表示很快会提名新的美联储主席，并承诺这位新 主席将主张大幅降低利率。结合此前他多次公开批评现任美联储主席鲍威尔的情况，显然他早已计划更换美联储主席。那么，特朗普如此急于换掉美联储主 席，背后的真正目的到底是什么呢？ 另外，特朗普换人选美联储主席，也是在挑战美联储的独立性，企图打破美国长期以来的规则和权力制衡。美联储的独立性是美国金融体系的基石，历任总 统即便与美联储的政策不一致，也都尊重其独立性。但是，特朗普似乎并不认同这一点，他希望任命一位与自己理念一致、对自己更加忠诚的美联储主席， 确保美联储的货币政策能更好地支持自己的行政决策。这实际上是对美联储独立性的挑战，也标志着特朗普希望通过扩大行政权力来改变长期以来的权力结 构。 最后，特朗普更换美联储主席，一方面是想向市场传递一个信号，即他将继续推动低利率政策，并配合关税和财政政策，安抚那些对政策不确定性感到恐慌 的市场；另一方面 ...

就在全美即将进入圣诞假期之际，美国总统特朗普在美东时间12月17日晚黄金时段面发表电视讲话，回顾了执政近一年的成绩单，同时宣布了几项旨在缓解 民众经济焦虑的新措施。 特朗普称，自己上台后接过了拜登政府留下的烂摊子，并在过去11个月里设法降低了汽油、鸡蛋、机票和酒店等多种商品和服务的成本，同时还提高工资涨 幅，阻止了移民流入该国。 特朗普还表示，美联储新主席人选即将公布，该人选主张维持低利率政策。 种种迹象表明，候选人很可能在国家经济委员会主任哈塞特和前美联储理事沃什两者之间产生。答案即将在1月中旬揭晓。 就在全美即将进入圣诞假期之际，美国总统特朗普在美东时间12月17日晚黄金时段面发表电视讲话，回顾了执政近一年的成绩单，同时宣布了几项旨在缓解 民众经济焦虑的新措施。 特朗普称，自己上台后接过了拜登政府留下的烂摊子，并在过去11个月里设法降低了汽油、鸡蛋、机票和酒店等多种商品和服务的成本，同时还提高工资涨 幅，阻止了移民流入该国。 其中，沃什明显主张美联储保持政策独立性，倡导缩表及深化降息等改革方向，还支持自由贸易；而哈塞特支持货币宽松以刺激增长，倾向于支持降税、财 政宽松、放松监管，曾表示会更激进降息。 特朗 ...

当地时间12月17日，美国总统特朗普发表全国讲话，称本届政府已迅速压低物价，且工资涨幅远超通胀 水平。他还表示美联储新主席人选即将公布，此人主张维持低利率政策。特朗普同时宣布药品降价措施 将于明年1月生效，并承诺明年将推出"激进"的住房改革方案。 ...

若时光倒流，特朗普定会重新审视2017年底提名鲍威尔担任美联储主席的决定，这个决定让他后悔不已。 自特朗普第二次就任总统以来，他对鲍威尔的公开批评愈发尖锐。这位由他亲自提名的美联储主席，如今却因降息节奏迟缓被冠以"太迟先生"的绰号。 特朗普的逻辑直白而坚定：在全球经济竞争白热化的当下，美国需以更低利率降低企业融资成本，推动企业扩大投资、雇佣更多工人，最终实现消费市场繁 荣与经济全面复苏。 然而，鲍威尔领导的美联储在降息问题上始终谨慎，未能满足特朗普对"经济魔法"的期待，这种政策分歧最终演变为公开冲突。 哈塞特的"忠诚"恰恰体现在对低利率政策的积极迎合。 据推测，他愿意配合美国政府的经济政策，加速降息进程，推动美国重回低利率时代。这种政策取向看似符合特朗普的经济愿景，实则暗藏风险。 如今命运再赐良机，特朗普已迫不及待展开行动，计划于明年初提前宣布新任美联储主席人选，尽管鲍威尔的任期要到明年5月才结束，但他显然不愿再受 规则束缚，执意通过释放人选信号重塑市场预期，将货币政策主导权牢牢握在白宫手中。 市场普遍预测，特朗普的心仪人选将是现任白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特。 这位经济学家的人生轨迹颇具戏剧性。201 ...

Core Viewpoint - The debate surrounding the future role of the Federal Reserve is intensifying as potential successors to Chairman Powell express concerns about the central bank's large balance sheet, which may contradict President Trump's desire for lower interest rates [1][2]. Group 1: Candidates' Perspectives - A consensus among candidates is forming around limiting the Federal Reserve's market interventions, with a general belief that the Fed's balance sheet, exceeding $6 trillion, is too large [2]. - Candidates like Kevin Warsh and Michelle Bowman advocate for a smaller balance sheet, contrasting sharply with Trump's push for lower borrowing costs [1][3]. Group 2: Trump's Contradictory Position - Trump's focus on lowering interest rates to alleviate federal debt and stimulate mortgage lending conflicts with candidates' emphasis on reducing the Fed's market influence [3]. - An example of this contradiction occurred in December 2018 when Trump urged the Fed to halt its $50 billion monthly balance sheet reduction, fearing it would drain liquidity from critical financing markets [3]. Group 3: Policy Logic Behind Balance Sheet Reduction - Candidates' calls for reducing the balance sheet stem from long-standing Republican concerns about quantitative easing (QE) [4]. - Kevin Warsh argues that reducing the balance sheet could create room for lowering short-term rates without triggering inflation, a view not universally accepted [4]. - Michelle Bowman believes a smaller balance sheet would provide more flexibility to respond to future economic shocks [4]. - Treasury Secretary Bessent, involved in the selection process, emphasizes the need to reduce the Fed's distorting market influence, although he advocates for cautious future asset purchases rather than immediate contraction [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Decision-Making - Regardless of the debate's outcome, the short-term market trajectory appears set, with the Fed planning to halt balance sheet reduction by December 1 to prevent liquidity issues [6]. - Stephen Miran, a current Fed governor, supports this decision and indicates that the Fed may still consider using QE when faced with significant risks to employment and price stability [6]. - The next Fed chair, appointed after Powell's term ends in May, may have to utilize all available policy tools in the event of an economic downturn, adding uncertainty to the market [6].

Core Points - The Japanese government is preparing to emphasize the central bank's focus on achieving strong economic growth and price stability in its economic stimulus plan, highlighting Prime Minister Sanna Takashi's intention to maintain low interest rates to support the fragile economic recovery [1] - The draft framework of the stimulus plan indicates a focus on alleviating the impact of rising living costs on households, investing in crisis management and growth areas, and enhancing defense capabilities [1] - The draft emphasizes the importance of monetary policy aimed at achieving strong economic growth and price stability, with a commitment to closely coordinate with the Bank of Japan to avoid a return to deflation and ensure sustained economic growth based on price stability [1] - The Nikkei reported that the stimulus plan will include tax reduction measures aimed at stimulating investment in 17 key industries [1] Summary of the Stimulus Plan - The stimulus plan is expected to be finalized on November 21, marking the first significant economic initiative since Prime Minister Takashi took office last month [2] - The finalization of the stimulus plan will signify the formal establishment of the Takashi government's policy direction, providing important insights into Japan's economic policy trajectory [2]

Group 1 - Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones predicts that the Nasdaq Composite Index is likely to rise by the end of the year amid widespread expectations of interest rate cuts [1][3] - The performance of large tech companies' upcoming earnings reports and the resolution of trade conflicts by the end of October are critical for a significant market rally in the last two months of the year [3] - Jones identifies the period from late October to early November as a "key turning point" for market trends, where the Nasdaq's performance will directly influence the year-end market outlook [3] Group 2 - Current market gains in the Nasdaq are heavily reliant on a few leading AI stocks, indicating a structural imbalance that could amplify market volatility [3] - The Federal Reserve's current interest rate range of 4%-4.25% is expected to drop to around 2.5% by this time next year, as governments strive to maintain low rates to manage debt and stimulate nominal economic growth [3] - The White House is actively seeking a more dovish Federal Reserve chair to ensure the continuation of low interest rate policies, reflecting a compromise to manage debt pressures [4] Group 3 - There is a potential risk of a "crisis of confidence" similar to the one experienced in the UK under Prime Minister Liz Truss, affecting both Japan and the US [5]

Group 1 - Trump's advisors are pushing for a temporary appointment to fill the upcoming vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board, which could provide Trump more time to select a suitable candidate to replace current Fed Chair Powell, whose term ends in May next year [1] - The current Fed Governor Kugler announced her resignation effective August 8, creating an immediate opportunity for Trump to appoint a new member who aligns with his preference for low interest rate policies [2] - Trump is considering whether to nominate a short-term candidate or someone with a clearer future to potentially succeed the Fed Chair, indicating the urgency of the decision due to Kugler's early departure [2] Group 2 - The recent July meeting saw two Fed governors, Waller and Bowman, voting against maintaining the current interest rates, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors opposed a rate decision, both of whom were appointed by Trump [3] - Trump is currently evaluating four candidates for the Fed Chair position, including former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and NEC Director Kevin Hassett, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed disinterest in the role [3] - Despite the potential appointment of a dovish governor, analysts suggest that it is unlikely to immediately alter the policy direction of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which requires a majority vote for any interest rate adjustments [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japan has been in a prolonged low-interest-rate environment since the early 1990s, significantly impacting its economic growth and financial policies [1][2][3]. Economic Growth Phases - Japan experienced rapid economic growth from 1955 to 1970, with a real GDP compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6%, followed by moderate growth from 1975 to 1990 with a CAGR of 4.4%. However, from 1993 to 2024, the CAGR dropped to 0.57%, indicating stagnation [2][3][4]. Monetary Policy and Market Response - The Bank of Japan has implemented various monetary easing policies, including quantitative easing and negative interest rates, to stimulate the economy since the bubble burst in the 1990s, but the overall effectiveness has been limited [3][4][5]. - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has been on a downward trend, even dipping below 0% after the introduction of negative interest rates in 2016, making Japan the first G7 country to experience negative yields [4][5]. Stock Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index saw a recovery post-2013 due to quantitative easing, with significant contributions from the depreciation of the yen, which boosted profits for export-oriented companies. However, it only surpassed pre-bubble levels in 2024 [5][6]. Economic Structure and Challenges - Consumption remains the largest contributor to Japan's GDP, accounting for about three-quarters, while net exports have increasingly contributed less due to structural issues and reliance on imported resources [8][10]. - Despite low interest rates reducing corporate financing costs, they have also led to lower capital returns, limiting wage growth and consumer spending, resulting in persistent low inflation [10][12]. Historical Context of Low Interest Rates - Japan's transition to a low-interest-rate environment began in response to the economic bubble burst in the early 1990s, with the Bank of Japan gradually lowering rates to combat economic stagnation and deflation [13][15][16]. - The introduction of negative interest rates in 2016 was an unprecedented move aimed at achieving a 2% inflation target, but it has faced challenges in delivering sustainable economic growth [16][18]. Banking Sector Adjustments - Japanese banks have shifted their asset structures in response to the prolonged low-interest-rate environment, increasing investments in cash and securities while traditional lending has seen slower growth [19][20][25]. - Regional banks have focused on local economies, while larger city banks have diversified into foreign bonds to enhance returns amid competitive pressures in the domestic lending market [30][31]. Investment Strategies and Innovations - Japanese banks are increasingly optimizing their bond investment portfolios to balance liquidity and profitability, with a notable shift towards foreign securities and corporate bonds [30][39]. - Innovations in structured products are being developed to meet the investment needs of smaller financial institutions and investors, allowing them to access higher-yield foreign bonds while managing currency risks [38][45]. Lessons for Other Markets - The experience of Japan's banking sector in navigating a low-interest-rate environment offers valuable insights for other markets, particularly in terms of risk management and investment diversification strategies [39][50].

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, calls for comprehensive reform of the Federal Reserve's operations and suggests forming a policy alliance with the Treasury Department, which has garnered significant attention in financial and political circles [1][3]. Group 1: Credibility Issues - Warsh emphasizes the need for "mechanism reform" in policy execution, indicating a deep-seated concern regarding the current Federal Reserve's credibility, which is essential for effective monetary policy and financial stability [3]. - He directly challenges the current Federal Reserve officials, suggesting that the credibility issue stems from their actions, which poses a public challenge to the leadership of the Federal Reserve [3][5]. Group 2: Potential Leadership Changes - Warsh is considered a strong candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, aligning closely with President Trump's demand for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth, which enhances his standing in Trump's eyes [4]. - If Warsh were to assume leadership, a fundamental shift in the Federal Reserve's operational style could occur, potentially leading to conflicts with existing members who uphold traditional decision-making processes [4][6]. Group 3: Political Implications - Trump's dissatisfaction with current chair Jerome Powell is evident, as he has repeatedly called for Powell's resignation, indicating a desire for a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy direction [5]. - Warsh's potential appointment could fulfill Trump's economic agenda, allowing him to demonstrate control over economic policy while possibly stimulating investment and consumption through lower interest rates [5]. Group 4: Risks of Policy Alliance - Establishing a policy alliance between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury could enhance short-term policy coordination but risks undermining the Federal Reserve's independence, which is crucial for maintaining price stability and preventing inflation [6]. - Internal conflicts between Warsh and existing Federal Reserve members could hinder decision-making efficiency and policy coherence, leading to delays in responding to complex economic conditions and increasing market uncertainty [6].