近日，美联储正计划对其监管与规则制定部门进行重大重组，预计在明年年底前将该部门人员规模削减 约30%。 这一举措被视为新任监管事务副主席米歇尔.鲍曼(Michelle Bowman)重塑美联储监管职能的重要一步， 也反映出特朗普政府推动削减联邦监管机构规模的总体方向。 大幅调整 本周，贝森特继续表示，鲍曼目前是继鲍威尔之后五位美联储主席候选人之一。他将对鲍曼进行第二轮 面谈，并在今年晚些时候向特朗普总统提交最终候选名单。 据悉，鲍曼还计划对监管部门的内部架构进行重组，原有的运营单位将更名为"业务赋能组"，并新设一 个专注于与银行业互动的职位，以强化沟通、减少重复监管。根据备忘录内容，该部门未来将以更少的 管理层级运作，强调与其他联邦监管机构的协调。 鲍曼在内部讲话中强调，美联储监管人员应将重点放在"银行的重大风险"上，而非被繁琐的合规流程分 散精力。她还呼吁加强对主要联邦监管机构检查结果的依赖，避免监管重叠。此举被解读为美联储监管 方针从拜登时期的"强化监管"向特朗普时期的"放松监管"转向。 此次人事调整恰逢监管部门领导层变动频繁之际。长期担任监管与规则制定部门主管的迈克尔.吉布森 已于今年早些时候宣布退休。 ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Milan anticipates an increase in future productivity, attributing this potential rise to regulatory relaxation [1] Group 1 - The expectation of improved productivity is linked to the belief that easing regulations will significantly contribute to this enhancement [1]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act aims to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. crude oil in the global market by reducing royalty rates and expediting environmental assessments for oil and gas projects [1] - The Act lowers the oil and gas extraction royalty rate from 18.75% to 12.5%, which is expected to improve the balance sheets of U.S. producers by reducing cash taxes [1] - Analysts predict that the average breakeven price for U.S. crude oil will be $54.09 per barrel by 2025, with over 80% of production in the Permian Basin having breakeven prices below $55 per barrel [1] Group 2 - S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts a decline in U.S. crude oil production from 13.5 million barrels per day in September 2023 to 13.1 million barrels per day by September 2026, with a potential recovery only if oil prices rise significantly [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act includes a provision for 100% bonus depreciation, which is expected to alleviate balance sheet pressures for companies like ConocoPhillips, potentially generating $500 million in benefits [2] - The Act permanently reinstates the 100% deduction for research and experimental expenses, which is projected to benefit EOG Resources by approximately $200 million in 2025 [3] Group 3 - Tax provisions in the Act are expected to incentivize increased investment in domestic shale oil production, with companies anticipating significantly reduced cash taxes in the coming years [3] - The combined effects of tax and regulatory benefits from the Act are expected to offset rising costs from tariffs on steel and other materials for producers [3]

Core Policy Analysis - The large-scale tax cuts primarily benefit corporations and high-income individuals, with supporters arguing it will stimulate investment and economic growth, but concerns arise over the financing method, which involves significant cuts to social safety nets and an expected increase of over $3 trillion in national debt [3] - Mainstream economists warn that expanding the deficit on top of already high debt levels will raise borrowing costs, crowd out private investment, and potentially slow long-term economic growth, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to a post-World War II high, posing a serious test to fiscal sustainability [3] Tariff Policy - Tariffs are a central tool of Trump's "America First" trade policy, threatening to impose tariffs as high as 40% on multiple countries and expanding the scope to critical imports like pharmaceuticals and chips, aiming to force trade partners into favorable agreements and increase government revenue [5] - Economists generally agree that tariffs effectively act as a tax on domestic consumers, leading to higher import costs that will be passed on to end prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures and eroding consumer purchasing power, with estimates suggesting a potential decline in household income [5] - The tariff war disrupts global supply chains, harming domestic companies reliant on imported components or export markets, and may provoke retaliatory measures from trade partners, further damaging U.S. economic interests [5] Other Related Policies - In addition to fiscal and trade policies, deregulation and tightening immigration policies are also being implemented, which may lower costs for businesses in some areas but could introduce risks related to environmental, financial stability, or labor rights [7] - Large-scale deportations of immigrants, particularly in sectors like agriculture that rely heavily on immigrant labor, could lead to labor shortages, increased wage costs, and impact the stability of supply chains [7] Current Economic Conditions and Future Outlook - The current U.S. economy shows some resilience, but signs of potential pressure are emerging, such as changes in employment growth structure and weak consumer spending, with the full impact of these policies yet to be realized [8] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates while awaiting clear signals from this economic experiment, with President Trump positioning Fed Chair Powell as a potential scapegoat should economic data worsen [8] Conclusion - The Trump administration is rapidly reshaping the U.S. economic policy framework, based on a unique economic philosophy that believes tax cuts and trade protection can achieve extraordinary growth while downplaying mainstream economic warnings about fiscal imbalance and trade wars [9] - The coming months will be critical for assessing whether this high-risk economic experiment will yield the promised prosperity or lead to new economic challenges and turmoil, with the overall impact of policies, market reactions, and economic data collectively determining the outcome [10]

Core Viewpoint - The economic policies of President Trump are projected to reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade, contrasting with analysts' expectations of record-high government debt levels [1] Group 1: Deficit Reduction Projections - The White House economic advisor, Milan, estimates that the combination of Trump's policies will lead to a deficit reduction of approximately $8.5 trillion to $11 trillion within the ten-year budget window [1] - About half of the deficit reduction, estimated between $3 trillion to $5 trillion, is expected to come from accelerated economic growth due to the forthcoming Republican tax cuts and deregulation measures [1] Group 2: Revenue Increases - Milan highlighted that the increase in tariffs under Trump is anticipated to generate an additional $3 trillion in revenue [1]

Group 1 - The temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration is seen as a correct decision for the global economy and may act as a catalyst for a reversal in certain stock market trends, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks that have underperformed long-term [1] - Small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to regulatory costs and tariffs, and a relaxation of regulations could create a more favorable development environment for these companies, potentially leading to unprecedented opportunities for small-cap stocks [1][2] - Despite a robust U.S. GDP growth and low unemployment, small-cap stocks have not been able to recover, with investors favoring large-cap stocks for their perceived safety, further exacerbated by the AI boom directing funds towards tech giants [2] Group 2 - The potential for regulatory relaxation is viewed as a key to breaking the stagnation of small-cap stocks, which have not encountered a genuine opportunity for years [2] - There are three major concerns regarding small-cap stocks leading the market: the concentration of the S&P 500 in the tech sector, reliance on financing for expansion amidst high interest rates, and the entrenched investor preference for large-cap stocks due to their historical outperformance [2] - Despite significant obstacles, the current conditions may represent the closest opportunity for small-cap stocks to stage a comeback in years [3]

Group 1 - Trump's approval rating has dropped to the lowest level for any U.S. president in the first 100 days, at 39%, a decrease of 6 percentage points since February [1] - Trump urged Republicans to create a "big and beautiful" bill that includes significant tax cuts, strong border security measures, military advancements, deregulation, and spending reforms, promising it would lead to economic prosperity [1] - Trump expressed disappointment in Russia and called for an end to the conflict in Ukraine, noting a positive meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] Group 2 - The White House plans to increase enforcement against cities and states that do not comply with federal immigration laws, potentially cutting federal funding and facing legal actions [2] - Trump is scheduled to meet with the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFL Super Bowl champions, at the White House [2] - Trump announced plans to restore Columbus Day as a federal holiday, which requires congressional approval [2]