核心政策分析 特朗普经济政策的影响与前景 文/UNFX宏观 唐纳德·特朗普总统在其第二任期伊始便以惊人的速度推进其标志性的经济议程，这不仅是对其竞选承诺的兑现，更是一场对美国经济未来走向 的 高风险实验。核心政策—— 大规模减税与 广泛征收关税——已迅速落地，其潜在影响正成为各界关注和争论的焦点。 大规模减税 然而，经济学界的普遍共识是，关税本质上是对国内消费者征税。进口成本的上升将不可避免地转嫁到终端价格上，加剧通胀压力，侵蚀消费者购买力。耶 鲁大学的估计显示，这可能导致家庭收入实际下降。 此外，关税战扰乱全球供应链，损害依赖进口零部件或出口市场的国内企业，并可能引发贸易伙伴的报复，进一步损害美国经济利益。 新签署的减税法案，在很大程度上延续并扩大了第一任期的税收优惠，特别是针对企业和高收入群体。支持者认为这将刺激投资和经济增长，但其融资方式 ——大幅削减社会保障网——以及预计将增加的逾3万亿美元国债，引发了严重的财政担忧。 主流经济学家普遍警告，在已经高企的债务基础上进一步扩大赤字，将推高借贷成本，挤压私人投资空间，并可能导致长期经济增长放缓。将债务占GDP 比重推至二战后新高，不仅是数字上的变化，更是对 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic policies of President Trump are projected to reduce the U.S. fiscal deficit by up to $11 trillion over the next decade, contrasting with analysts' expectations of record-high government debt levels [1] Group 1: Deficit Reduction Projections - The White House economic advisor, Milan, estimates that the combination of Trump's policies will lead to a deficit reduction of approximately $8.5 trillion to $11 trillion within the ten-year budget window [1] - About half of the deficit reduction, estimated between $3 trillion to $5 trillion, is expected to come from accelerated economic growth due to the forthcoming Republican tax cuts and deregulation measures [1] Group 2: Revenue Increases - Milan highlighted that the increase in tariffs under Trump is anticipated to generate an additional $3 trillion in revenue [1]

Group 1 - The temporary suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration is seen as a correct decision for the global economy and may act as a catalyst for a reversal in certain stock market trends, particularly benefiting small-cap stocks that have underperformed long-term [1] - Small-cap stocks are particularly sensitive to regulatory costs and tariffs, and a relaxation of regulations could create a more favorable development environment for these companies, potentially leading to unprecedented opportunities for small-cap stocks [1][2] - Despite a robust U.S. GDP growth and low unemployment, small-cap stocks have not been able to recover, with investors favoring large-cap stocks for their perceived safety, further exacerbated by the AI boom directing funds towards tech giants [2] Group 2 - The potential for regulatory relaxation is viewed as a key to breaking the stagnation of small-cap stocks, which have not encountered a genuine opportunity for years [2] - There are three major concerns regarding small-cap stocks leading the market: the concentration of the S&P 500 in the tech sector, reliance on financing for expansion amidst high interest rates, and the entrenched investor preference for large-cap stocks due to their historical outperformance [2] - Despite significant obstacles, the current conditions may represent the closest opportunity for small-cap stocks to stage a comeback in years [3]

Group 1 - Trump's approval rating has dropped to the lowest level for any U.S. president in the first 100 days, at 39%, a decrease of 6 percentage points since February [1] - Trump urged Republicans to create a "big and beautiful" bill that includes significant tax cuts, strong border security measures, military advancements, deregulation, and spending reforms, promising it would lead to economic prosperity [1] - Trump expressed disappointment in Russia and called for an end to the conflict in Ukraine, noting a positive meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky [1] Group 2 - The White House plans to increase enforcement against cities and states that do not comply with federal immigration laws, potentially cutting federal funding and facing legal actions [2] - Trump is scheduled to meet with the Philadelphia Eagles, the NFL Super Bowl champions, at the White House [2] - Trump announced plans to restore Columbus Day as a federal holiday, which requires congressional approval [2]