美国总统特朗普周三接连发表了两项极不寻常的政策声明，导致股市下挫，并引发了关于自由市场经济 中总统权力界限的严重质疑。 首先，特朗普发帖称，应禁止大型机构投资者购买单户住宅。 随后，他表示，在国防公司能够改善对美军的交付之前，他的政府将阻止其获得合同，除非这些公司将 高管薪酬上限设定为500万美元，并停止发放股息和股票回购。 当然，特朗普绝非典型的共和党总统。说到底，他根本就不是一个典型的总统。特朗普那反复无常的关 税政策在现代史上绝无仅有，他对美国企业征收高额进口税以激励制造业回流——但当因物价上涨而备 受抨击时，他又经常削减最严厉的关税。 但这无法解决住房市场的核心问题：严重的供应短缺。TD Cowen分析师Jaret Seiberg认为，这甚至可能 适得其反。他指出，虽然机构在住房市场的投资正在增长，但相对于整个市场而言仍然相当有限。虽然 这可能会促进一些房屋销售，但可能会增加风险，导致价格上涨。这也可能会减少用于出租的房屋数 量。 但特朗普是以亲商候选人的身份参选的，其民粹主义经济议程旨在降低生活成本。 即便算上关税，他对企业董事会的干预在很大程度上也是有限的。他制定了一些越界的政策来干预商业 决策， ...

美国里士满联储主席Barkin（2027年FOMC票委）：鉴于失业和通胀目标的风险，未来的利率决策需 要"精细调整"。 当前的政策利率处于中性区间。 美联储的双重使命两方面都"值得关注"。 去年显示出经济的韧性，但需求和就业增长主要集中在某些行业，市场情绪有所下降。 预计去年的不确定性将在2026年减少，消费者和企业的信心将增强。 税收变化、放松监管以及降息的影响，今年都将为经济带来刺激。 通胀已回落但仍高于目标，失业率仍然较低，但不希望就业市场进一步恶化。 ...

今年，美国六大银行的市值总计增加了6000亿美元，这一增长得益于特朗普总统的放松监管议程以及投 资银行业务的全面复苏，从而引发了全面的金融反弹。 据标准普尔全球公司称，摩根大通(JPM.US)、花旗集团(C.US)、美国银行(BAC.US)、富国银行 (WFC.US)、高盛集团(GS.US)和摩根士丹利(MS.US)这六家银行的总市值目前已达到2.37万亿美元，而 在2024年底时仅为1.77万亿美元。这意味着在不到12个月的时间里，市值增长了超过三分之一。 与此同时，欧洲的六大银行总市值仅为1万亿美元。这一差距并非凭空出现，而是多年来规则不均衡的 结果。 然而，如今随着特朗普放松危机后的监管，美国的银行终于摆脱了2008年后加诸其身的种种束缚。并 且，它们已经连续第二年跑赢更广泛的标普500指数。 特朗普放宽银行监管，银行囤积资本准备扩张 早在2008年，金融危机催生了一系列规定，这些规定大幅削减了银行利润。更高的资本要求、更严格的 放贷标准以及压力测试让银行对投资者而言变得乏味无趣。但如今，情况已经改变。 特朗普政府的监管机构已经开始允许最大的几家贷款机构提高杠杆率。他们修改了决定银行必须持有多 少资本的 ...

Group 1 - President Trump addressed the nation on December 17, highlighting achievements over the past 11 months and announcing measures to alleviate economic anxiety among the public [1][4] - Trump claimed to have reduced costs for various goods and services, including gasoline, eggs, airline tickets, and hotels, while also increasing wage growth and curbing immigration [1][4] - The announcement included the upcoming selection of a new Federal Reserve chair, with candidates likely being National Economic Council Director Hassett and former Fed Governor Warsh, both of whom have differing views on monetary policy [1][4] Group 2 - Trump revealed that the government sent checks of $1,776 to 1.45 million military personnel, a figure symbolizing the year of America's founding [6] - Recent polls indicate that public concern over economic issues is high, with only 33% of Americans approving of Trump's economic management and 39% approving of his overall job performance [6] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reiterated the vision of the "Trump Account" plan, aimed at increasing stock market participation among Americans, with a one-time deposit of $1,000 for newborns to invest in index funds [6]

城堡投资创始人肯·格里芬表示，共和党正在努力应对关税和移民方面的一些政策，这些政策正在推高 通胀，但共和党强调的放松监管最终将有助于遏制物价上升。格里芬在周二巴黎的一场会议上接受采访 时表示："共和党人在面对这样一个现实时感到吃力：他们在竞选时提出的许多政策——比如禁止非法 移民进入美国——其实是推高通胀的。"他说，"当你终止非法移民流入时，你就缩小了可用劳动力的规 模，这是通胀性的。"不过，格里芬表示，从长远看，放松监管"应该会带来生产率的提升，从而带来通 胀的回落"。美联储官员在上周的会议上连续第三次降息，但也发出信号暗示进一步降息并非板上钉 钉。一些决策者担心通胀仍高于美联储2%的目标，而另一些人则更加关注劳动力市场放缓。格里芬还 谈到，他认为在通胀和放松监管问题上，债券市场与股票市场的反应存在分歧。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The speculation regarding the next chairperson of the Federal Reserve has intensified following President Trump's recent statements, with a potential announcement expected in early 2026 [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve Chairperson Selection - Trump indicated he plans to announce the new Federal Reserve chairperson in early 2026, which contrasts with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin's earlier suggestion of a timeline around Christmas [1] - The current chair, Jerome Powell, is set to see his term expire in May next year, and there is speculation he may remain on the board [1] - The candidate list has narrowed from 11 to 5, with potential candidates including Hassett, Fed Governor Waller, and Vice Chair Bowman [1][4] Group 2: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett - Kevin Hassett, 63, holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and has previously served as a senior economist at the Federal Reserve and a professor at Columbia University [4] - Hassett has been a proponent of monetary easing to stimulate growth and aligns closely with Trump's economic views, advocating for tax cuts, fiscal expansion, deregulation, and low interest rates [4] - Analysts suggest that if Hassett is appointed, he may lower the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75% to 4% to below 3% without significantly threatening the Fed's independence [4] Group 3: Market Expectations and Economic Indicators - Citic Securities emphasizes that the unemployment rate will be crucial for the Fed's decision on interest rates in December, with expectations of a potential rate cut of 25 basis points [5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is currently at 87.6%, reflecting a growing expectation among market participants [5]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve plans to significantly restructure its regulatory and rule-making department, aiming to reduce its workforce by approximately 30% by the end of next year, reflecting a shift towards a more streamlined regulatory approach under Vice Chair Michelle Bowman [1][2]. Group 1: Workforce Reduction - The regulatory department intends to cut its staff from around 500 to approximately 350, implementing a "voluntary early retirement program" to incentivize eligible employees to leave [2]. - This reduction aligns with the broader trend initiated by the Trump administration to decrease the size of federal regulatory agencies [2]. Group 2: Structural Changes - Bowman's announcement emphasizes the need for a more efficient regulatory structure, focusing on major banking risks rather than being distracted by cumbersome compliance processes [2][3]. - The department will undergo internal restructuring, renaming operational units to "business enablement groups" and creating a new position to enhance communication with the banking sector [2]. Group 3: Leadership and Broader Context - The restructuring coincides with leadership changes within the regulatory department, as long-time head Michael Gibson has retired, and Bowman is in the process of selecting a new management team [3]. - This initiative is part of a larger plan by the Federal Reserve to reduce its workforce by about 10% over the coming years to improve efficiency and control costs [3]. Group 4: Reactions and Implications - The plan has sparked mixed reactions, with some officials criticizing the expansion of the Federal Reserve's functions, while others, particularly in Wall Street and the Republican camp, welcome the move as a means to reduce compliance burdens and enhance regulatory efficiency [4]. - Concerns have been raised about the potential gaps in regulatory coverage following the reduction, especially after the recent regional banking crisis [4].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's Milan anticipates an increase in future productivity, attributing this potential rise to regulatory relaxation [1] Group 1 - The expectation of improved productivity is linked to the belief that easing regulations will significantly contribute to this enhancement [1]

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" Act aims to enhance the competitiveness of U.S. crude oil in the global market by reducing royalty rates and expediting environmental assessments for oil and gas projects [1] - The Act lowers the oil and gas extraction royalty rate from 18.75% to 12.5%, which is expected to improve the balance sheets of U.S. producers by reducing cash taxes [1] - Analysts predict that the average breakeven price for U.S. crude oil will be $54.09 per barrel by 2025, with over 80% of production in the Permian Basin having breakeven prices below $55 per barrel [1] Group 2 - S&P Global Commodity Insights forecasts a decline in U.S. crude oil production from 13.5 million barrels per day in September 2023 to 13.1 million barrels per day by September 2026, with a potential recovery only if oil prices rise significantly [2] - The "Big and Beautiful" Act includes a provision for 100% bonus depreciation, which is expected to alleviate balance sheet pressures for companies like ConocoPhillips, potentially generating $500 million in benefits [2] - The Act permanently reinstates the 100% deduction for research and experimental expenses, which is projected to benefit EOG Resources by approximately $200 million in 2025 [3] Group 3 - Tax provisions in the Act are expected to incentivize increased investment in domestic shale oil production, with companies anticipating significantly reduced cash taxes in the coming years [3] - The combined effects of tax and regulatory benefits from the Act are expected to offset rising costs from tariffs on steel and other materials for producers [3]

Core Policy Analysis - The large-scale tax cuts primarily benefit corporations and high-income individuals, with supporters arguing it will stimulate investment and economic growth, but concerns arise over the financing method, which involves significant cuts to social safety nets and an expected increase of over $3 trillion in national debt [3] - Mainstream economists warn that expanding the deficit on top of already high debt levels will raise borrowing costs, crowd out private investment, and potentially slow long-term economic growth, pushing the debt-to-GDP ratio to a post-World War II high, posing a serious test to fiscal sustainability [3] Tariff Policy - Tariffs are a central tool of Trump's "America First" trade policy, threatening to impose tariffs as high as 40% on multiple countries and expanding the scope to critical imports like pharmaceuticals and chips, aiming to force trade partners into favorable agreements and increase government revenue [5] - Economists generally agree that tariffs effectively act as a tax on domestic consumers, leading to higher import costs that will be passed on to end prices, exacerbating inflationary pressures and eroding consumer purchasing power, with estimates suggesting a potential decline in household income [5] - The tariff war disrupts global supply chains, harming domestic companies reliant on imported components or export markets, and may provoke retaliatory measures from trade partners, further damaging U.S. economic interests [5] Other Related Policies - In addition to fiscal and trade policies, deregulation and tightening immigration policies are also being implemented, which may lower costs for businesses in some areas but could introduce risks related to environmental, financial stability, or labor rights [7] - Large-scale deportations of immigrants, particularly in sectors like agriculture that rely heavily on immigrant labor, could lead to labor shortages, increased wage costs, and impact the stability of supply chains [7] Current Economic Conditions and Future Outlook - The current U.S. economy shows some resilience, but signs of potential pressure are emerging, such as changes in employment growth structure and weak consumer spending, with the full impact of these policies yet to be realized [8] - The Federal Reserve is maintaining interest rates while awaiting clear signals from this economic experiment, with President Trump positioning Fed Chair Powell as a potential scapegoat should economic data worsen [8] Conclusion - The Trump administration is rapidly reshaping the U.S. economic policy framework, based on a unique economic philosophy that believes tax cuts and trade protection can achieve extraordinary growth while downplaying mainstream economic warnings about fiscal imbalance and trade wars [9] - The coming months will be critical for assessing whether this high-risk economic experiment will yield the promised prosperity or lead to new economic challenges and turmoil, with the overall impact of policies, market reactions, and economic data collectively determining the outcome [10]