格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 9 月 30 日星期二 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周一夜盘瓶片 PR2511 的期货价格下跌 60 元至 5738 元/吨。持仓方面，主力合约持 仓量为 1.86 万手，持仓-1547 手。华东市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定至 5780 元/吨，华 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 南市场瓶片价格稳定至 5860 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.35 万吨，环比-0.39 万吨。国内 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 70.1%，环比-1.5%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5337 元，下 | | | | 降 1.5%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-189 元/吨，环比上涨 7 元/吨。 2、2025 年 8 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 52.07 万吨，较上月减少 5.88 万吨。2 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 9 月 29 日星期一 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周五夜盘瓶片 PR2511 的期货价格上涨 2 元至 5820 元/吨。持仓方面，主力合约持仓 量为 2.77 万手，持仓-1185 手。华东市场水瓶级瓶片价格稳定至 5780 元/吨，华南 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 降 | 市场瓶片价格稳定至 5860 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 32.35 万吨，环比-0.39 万吨。国内 聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 70.1%，环比-1.5%；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5337 元，下 1.5%；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-189 元/吨，环比上涨 7 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 年 8 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 52.07 万吨，较上月减 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically bottle chips) is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of bottle chips decreased slightly this week, downstream market purchases were for rigid restocking, and the market was cautious about the later demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in August. Crude oil prices rebounded from a low level this week, and the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate and rebound following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5950 yuan/ton. Short - term long operations are recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of bottle chips PR2511 rose 42 yuan to 5798 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract was 31,700 lots, an increase of 159 lots. The price of water - grade bottle chips in the East China market rose 40 yuan to 5750 yuan/ton, and the price of bottle chips in the South China market rose 30 yuan to 5830 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip output was 327,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.28. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 71.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5422 yuan, a decrease of 2.1%. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 196 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 86 yuan/ton [1] - In August 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 520,700 tons, a decrease of 58,800 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.3414 million tons [1] - The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict caused potential supply risks, and the decline in US commercial crude oil inventories led to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures contract 11 rose 1.58 dollars/barrel to 64.99 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.49%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures contract 11 rose 1.68 dollars/barrel to 69.31 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 2.48%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2511 rose 7.0 to 482.3 yuan/barrel, and rose 7.4 to 489.7 yuan/barrel at night [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in June this year. The global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.9% in 2026, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - This week, the supply of bottle chips decreased slightly, downstream market purchases were for rigid restocking, and the market was cautious about the later demand. The export volume of bottle chips decreased month - on - month in August. Crude oil prices rebounded from a low level this week, and the short - term price of bottle chips will oscillate and rebound following the raw material end. The reference range for the main contract is 5700 - 5950 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term long operations are recommended [1]

Group 1: Economic Data - In August, the total social electricity consumption reached 1015.4 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The national manufacturing electricity consumption in the same month increased by 5.5% year-on-year, the highest this year [2] - The OECD's mid-term outlook report predicts that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward revision of 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast, and the 2026 forecast remains at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, Eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year have been slightly raised [2] - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in September was 52, in line with expectations, and the final value in August was 53. The preliminary value of the Services PMI was 53.9, and the preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 53.6, both lower than expected and at a three-month low [2] - In September, the arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high. The soybean crushing volume of major oil mills in the country has remained above 2.3 million tons for four consecutive weeks, and this week's crushing volume is expected to be around 2.4 million tons. As of September 19, the soybean meal inventory of major oil mills has exceeded 1.2 million tons, and it is expected to rise above 1.25 million tons by the end of September [2] Group 2: Project News - The first-phase lithium carbonate project of Luopu Xihai New Energy Materials Co., Ltd. was put into operation. The total investment of the project is 4.6 billion yuan. After the first phase reaches full production, it can process 300,000 tons of lithium concentrate annually and produce 30,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate [3] Group 3: Plate Performance - Key focus: urea, Shanghai copper, soybean meal, crude oil, plastic [4] - Night trading performance: non-metallic building materials 2.58%, precious metals 32.68%, oilseeds 10.34%, soft commodities 2.53%, non-ferrous metals 18.74%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals 13.97%, energy 3.01%, chemicals 11.88%, grains 1.05%, agricultural and sideline products 3.23% [4] Group 4: Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [6] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year-to-Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index, SSE 50 | -0.18, -0.09 | -0.94, -1.91 | 14.02, 8.74 | | | CSI 300 | -0.06 | 0.51 | 14.86 | | | CSI 500 | -0.61 | 1.94 | 25.41 | | | S&P 500 | -0.55 | 3.04 | 13.18 | | | Hang Seng Index | -0.70 | 4.31 | 30.40 | | | German DAX | 0.36 | -1.22 | 18.60 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.00 | 6.50 | 14.03 | | | UK FTSE 100 | -0.04 | 0.39 | 12.85 | | Fixed Income | 10-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.21 | -0.09 | -1.11 | | | 5-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.13 | 0.10 | -0.86 | | | 2-year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.05 | -0.07 | -0.61 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | -1.52 | 0.35 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 2.22 | -0.61 | -11.48 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.46 | 9.17 | 43.40 | | | LME Copper | 0.21 | 0.92 | 13.80 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 0.94 | 11.20 | 28.57 | | Other | US Dollar Index | -0.08 | -0.63 | -10.37 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 4.82 | -7.20 | [8]

Economic Data - The US current account deficit for Q2 2023 is reported at $251.3 billion, marking the smallest deficit since Q3 2023 [4] - The preliminary manufacturing PMI for the US in September is 52, aligning with expectations [4] - The Eurozone's preliminary manufacturing PMI for September is 49.5, falling below the growth threshold [4] - The OECD forecasts a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the June 2023 estimate [4] Market Performance - The Nasdaq index closed at 22,573.47, down 0.95% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 46,292.78, down 0.19% [5] - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,656.92, down 0.55% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,159.12, down 0.70% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,821.83, down 0.18% [5] Commodity and Currency Trends - The price of Brent crude oil is reported at $67.79, up 1.83% [5] - The London gold spot price is $3,762.99, up 0.46% [5] - The US dollar index stands at 97.24, down 0.08% [5] - The exchange rate for USD to CNY (CFETS) is 7.11, down 0.02% [5] Technology Sector Insights - Apple is experiencing a surge in demand for the iPhone 17, indicating significant upgrade potential globally [4] - TSMC's 2nm process pricing has increased by at least 50% compared to the 3nm process [4]

Group 1 - The OECD has released its mid-term economic outlook report, projecting a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast made in June of this year [1] - For 2026, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.9%, which remains unchanged from the June forecast [1]

Group 1 - In August, the total electricity consumption in China reached 10,154 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% [3] - The electricity consumption by the primary industry was 164 billion kWh, up 9.7% year-on-year; the secondary industry consumed 5,981 billion kWh, also up 5.0%; the tertiary industry saw a consumption of 2,046 billion kWh, increasing by 7.2% [3] - Cumulative electricity consumption from January to August was 68,788 billion kWh, a year-on-year growth of 4.6% [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reported that by the end of August, the total number of fixed broadband internet access users reached 689 million, with a net increase of 18.85 million users since the end of last year [4] - Users with internet access speeds of 100 Mbps and above accounted for 95.2% of total users, while those with speeds of 1,000 Mbps and above reached 233 million, representing 33.9% of total users [4] Group 3 - The State Administration for Market Regulation held discussions with Huo La La to ensure compliance with antitrust laws and promote fair market competition [4] - The National Internet Information Office took action against the Toutiao platform for failing to manage content responsibly, leading to penalties and required corrections [4][5] - The OECD projected a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from previous forecasts [4] Group 4 - Tianpu Co. announced that its stock would be suspended for further investigation due to a 15 consecutive trading limit increase [7] - Haili Co. refuted rumors regarding shell mergers and asset injections [7] - Guiguan Network denied rumors of a significant computing power collaboration with Huawei Cloud [8]

Group 1 - The OECD has released its mid-term economic outlook report, projecting a global economic growth rate of 3.2% for 2025, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast made in June of this year [1] - For 2026, the global economic growth rate is expected to slow down to 2.9%, which remains unchanged from the June forecast [1]

新华社快讯：经济合作与发展组织（经合组织）23日发布中期经济展望报告，预计2025年全球经济 增速为3.2%，较今年6月预测值上调0.3个百分点；2026年全球经济增速将放缓至2.9%，与6月预测值相 同。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:吴京泽】 ...