据韩联社9月22日报道，韩国总统李在明在联合国大会召开前夕接受英国路透社和英国广播公司采访时表 示，韩方争取尽快与美方达成关税协议，但在韩美未签货币互换协议的情况下，韩方若按照美方要求以现 金形式投资3500亿美元，韩国"将会面临类似1997年的金融危机"。 报道称，魏圣洛当天在韩国Channel A电视台上发表了上述言论。"我们所谈论的立场并不是谈判策略，而 是客观且真实地超出了我们能够处理的水平。"他说，"我们无力支付3500亿美元现金。" 魏圣洛表示，韩方目前正在寻求替代方案，预计将于下月在韩国主场举行的亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会 上与美方讨论。 韩美7月底达成贸易协议框架，但在具体执行方案上尚未最终达成一致。韩国政府7月宣布与美方达成"原 则协议"时曾解释称，3500亿美元投资"多数以担保和贷款为主，现金仅占极少部分"，但近期被爆美方要求 韩方"几乎全部以现金出资"。韩国《朝鲜日报》称，3500亿美元的短期投资，超过了韩国过去5年全球海 外直接投资（FDI）总额。 韩美围绕3500亿美元对美投资的谈判陷入僵局。据路透社报道，韩国国家安全顾问魏圣洛周六（27日）坦 言，韩方无法按照美国总统特朗普所说的 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Although it has improved in the short term, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. Overall, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [7][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed up 6.22%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 9%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract were generally weak this week, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode. [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The US issued a document officially finalizing a tariff agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU cars and auto parts since August 1st. Since September 1st, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list. | Bullish | | Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York, emphasizing the importance of trade and investment market openness and avoiding politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues. | Neutral | | The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US soy trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, stating that the US should cancel unreasonable tariffs and that the biggest obstacle to normal China - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions. | Neutral | | The OECD released a mid - term outlook report, raising the forecast of global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast) and keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year were slightly raised. | Slightly Bullish | [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly oscillated. [25][27][30][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core view, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information. [7][38]

（原标题：历史新高！刚刚，集体大涨） 亚太市场集体走高！ 9月22日早间，日本、韩国股市纷纷冲高，韩国KOSPI指数盘中涨幅一度超过1%，再创历史新高；日经 225指数涨幅也超过1%。半导体板块走强，三星电子、瑞萨电子涨超3%。 韩国KOSPI指数再创新高 韩国股市今日早盘大幅冲高，韩国KOSPI指数涨幅一度超过1%，最高触及3481.96点，再度刷新历史新 高。截至券商中国记者发稿，韩国KOSPI指数上涨0.72%。 个股方面，三星电子涨超4%，市值突破490万亿韩元。此前，有韩国媒体报道称，三星电子12层堆叠 HBM3E芯片产品通过英伟达测试。 花旗分析师Peter Lee预计三星电子HBM3e认证结果将于9月末或10月初公布，该公司将受益于其恢复的 HBM竞争力和近期内存产品价格的回升。花旗重申对该股的买入评级，目标价11万韩元。此外，摩根 士丹利将三星电子的目标价从86000韩元上调至97000韩元，维持买入评级。 韩国政府周一公布的数据显示，经工作日差异调整后的9月份前20天的出口金额同比下降10.6%；而经 调整的8月全月数据则被修订为同比增长6%。 作为今年韩国出口主引擎的半导体9月前20天增长 ...

亚太市场集体走高！ 9月22日早间，日本、韩国股市纷纷冲高，韩国KOSPI指数盘中涨幅一度超过1%，再创历史新高；日经225指数涨幅也超 过1%。半导体板块走强，三星电子、瑞萨电子涨超3%。 韩国KOSPI指数再创新高 韩国股市今日早盘大幅冲高，韩国KOSPI指数涨幅一度超过1%，最高触及3481.96点，再度刷新历史新高。截至券商中国 记者发稿，韩国KOSPI指数上涨0.72%。 个股方面，三星电子涨超4%，市值突破490万亿韩元。此前，有韩国媒体报道称，三星电子12层堆叠HBM3E芯片产品通 过英伟达测试。 花旗分析师Peter Lee预计三星电子HBM3e认证结果将于9月末或10月初公布，该公司将受益于其恢复的HBM竞争力和近 期内存产品价格的回升。花旗重申对该股的买入评级，目标价11万韩元。此外，摩根士丹利将三星电子的目标价从86000 韩元上调至97000韩元，维持买入评级。 韩国政府周一公布的数据显示，经工作日差异调整后的9月份前20天的出口金额同比下降10.6%；而经调整的8月全月数据 则被修订为同比增长6%。 作为今年韩国出口主引擎的半导体9月前20天增长27%，延续了8月份30%的升幅；汽车 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Wencan Co., Ltd. (文灿股份), reported a fire incident at its subsidiary Tianjin Xiongbang, which is expected to impact its production and financial performance in 2025. The company has initiated emergency measures and is assessing the damage caused by the fire [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of the year, Wencan Co., Ltd. experienced a decline in both revenue and net profit, with total revenue of 2.80 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.88% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.11 million yuan, down 83.98% [2][3]. - The company's operating cash flow also saw a significant drop of 84.58%, amounting to 38.73 million yuan compared to 251.21 million yuan in the same period last year [3]. Operational Impact - The fire incident did not result in any casualties and did not affect the main production areas, but it did cause damage to some facilities and inventory. The company is currently evaluating the specific losses [1]. - The production schedule for some products requiring post-processing will be impacted due to the fire [1]. Market Context - The company faces challenges due to reduced orders from clients in Europe and North America, influenced by market fluctuations and the ongoing effects of the Ukraine pipeline shutdown, which has led to increased energy costs [3]. - As of September 4, the company's stock price decreased by 0.80% to 20.96 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 6.59 billion yuan, reflecting a cumulative decline of 10% this year [4].

Group 1 - Japan's chief trade negotiator, Akizawa Yoshimasa, has canceled his trip to Washington, which was intended to finalize a tariff agreement with the Trump administration [2] - The agreement, announced on July 22, involves a 15% tariff on most Japanese imports, effective from August 1, which is lower than the previously proposed 25% reciprocal tariff [2] - Japanese officials have expressed concerns over additional tariffs being imposed on top of the agreed 15%, and Washington has acknowledged this error, agreeing to adhere to the 15% tariff agreement and refund any excess import duties paid [2] Group 2 - Japanese government spokesperson, Yoshihide Suga, emphasized the importance of swiftly implementing the agreement for economic security between the two nations [3] - The U.S. Commerce Secretary, Howard Lutnick, indicated that Washington is ready to finalize the agreement, with Japan committing to invest up to $550 billion in the U.S. over the coming years [2]

Core Viewpoint - Canada will eliminate the 25% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods that comply with the USMCA starting September 1, as a response to the U.S. reducing tariffs on Canadian products [3][7]. Group 1: Tariff Changes - The Canadian government has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods worth CAD 60 billion since the trade war began, including additional tariffs on U.S. automobiles [3][7]. - Canadian Prime Minister Carney indicated that the focus will be on assisting industries facing high tariffs, such as steel, aluminum, automotive, and lumber [3][7]. - The U.S. has increased tariffs on certain Canadian goods to 35%, but products covered by the USMCA are exempt from this increase [3][7]. Group 2: Impact on Small Businesses - A survey by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) revealed that 38% of small businesses may not survive another year if current tariff rules persist, with 58% affected by retaliatory tariffs [7][8]. - Many small businesses are bearing the full cost of U.S. import tariffs, with 67% indicating they have paid these tariffs themselves [7][8]. - The cost of shifting to domestic manufacturing for some companies, like Starfield Optics, can be as high as CAD 12,000, while their profits were CAD 150,000 last year [7]. Group 3: Trade Statistics - As of January, approximately 34% of Canadian goods exported to the U.S. complied with the USMCA, which increased to nearly 57% by June [7]. - Over 85% of goods in Canada-U.S. trade currently enjoy tariff exemptions [7]. Group 4: Ongoing Tariffs and Future Concerns - Tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum will remain in effect, with Canada being significantly impacted as a major supplier of these materials to the U.S. [10][11]. - In 2024, Canada is projected to export CAD 12.1 billion worth of steel, with 91% going to the U.S., and import CAD 15.5 billion worth of steel, with nearly 45% from the U.S. [11]. - The Canadian legal expert warned that maintaining retaliatory tariffs could jeopardize Canada's exemptions under the USMCA, especially as other countries have reached agreements with the U.S. [11].

Federal Reserve Developments - The U.S. Department of Justice plans to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, urging Chairman Powell to remove her from the board due to concerns over her financial history [2][3] - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester stated she would not support a rate cut if a policy decision were made tomorrow, citing persistent high inflation [2][3] - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes only one rate cut this year is appropriate, but he is concerned about the labor market [3][4] Market Reactions - The probability of the Fed maintaining rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 75% [5] - U.S. stock indices fell, with the Dow down 152.81 points, as investors await Chairman Powell's keynote speech at the Jackson Hole conference [6][7] U.S.-EU Trade Agreement - The U.S. and EU have reached a framework agreement on trade, which includes a commitment to apply either the Most Favored Nation (MFN) tariff rate or a 15% tariff rate on EU goods [8][9] - The agreement aims to reduce tariffs on automobiles and parts, with a potential reduction to 15% contingent on EU legislative action [10] Polyester Sector Insights - The polyester sector has seen a rebound since August 15, driven by stable oil and coal prices, low inventory levels, and approaching demand season [11][12] - The upstream PX segment is performing well, while PTA and polyester segments are experiencing lower profits, indicating a "strong upstream, weak downstream" dynamic [13]

Group 1 - South Korea's exports showed a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in the first 20 days of August, surpassing the 5.8% growth in July [1] - The trade surplus for the same period was recorded at $833 million, with imports slightly increasing by 0.4% [1] - The recent trade agreement between the US and South Korea capped tariffs on Korean goods at 15%, which is lower than the previously threatened 25% [1] Group 2 - The automotive sector faces uncertainty as tariffs remain at 25% until a formal adjustment is made by the US [2] - Key export products such as semiconductors saw a growth of nearly 30%, while automotive exports increased by 22% [2] - Exports to the US decreased by 2.7%, while exports to China grew by 2.7%, and exports to Thailand and Singapore surged by 59% and 82% respectively [2]

故此，重点关注鲍威尔的言论，如美联储的鹰派倾向强化，对9月降息的承诺不够明确，将进一步推升美元，从而加剧黄金的短期压力；反之，若鲍威尔 确认降息路径，黄金或迎来反弹。 不过，当下整体走势依然还是就近几个月的震荡区间利的阶段性行情而言，未来1年左右方向和前景上，个人暂时仍还是偏向看涨上行； 一方面，目前，关税协议达成的压力已然出尽，并且特朗普表示未来两周将确定钢铁和芯片关税，半导体关税有可能高达300%；并扩大对钢铝进口征收 50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品纳入清单。这将再度提振金价； 张尧浠：鹰派预期施压金价走低、震荡调整后仍待上攀升 上交易日周二(8月19日)：国际黄金开于3333.21美元/盎司，整体先涨后跌，日内先行震荡上行，于欧盘18点时段一度涨至3345.31美元日高点，随后遇阻回 落持续下跌，延续至美盘尾触及日内低点3314.89美元，之后止跌窄幅盘整，收于3315.54美元，日振幅30.42美元，收跌17.67美元，跌幅0.53%。 影响上，市场对俄乌冲突持谨慎乐观态度，继续减弱金价避险需求，以及投资者屏息以待的美联储主席鲍威尔本周晚些时候在杰克逊霍尔的讲话，考虑到 7月生产者物价指数（PPI ...