展望未来，全球经济如何受到关税影响将继续成为市场关注的焦点，预期因市场对相关消息较为敏感而 引发波动。从12个月的前景来看，维持对环球股票的中性看法，鉴于经济韧性远超先前预期，对贸易谈 判和地缘政治事件等突发市场消息保持谨慎。 ESG(低碳)投资方面，各国政府在第30届联合国气候变化大会上达成共识，承诺将大幅增加对清洁能源 和低碳经济的投资。根据国际能源署(IEA)的预测，未来全球在能源转型方面的总投资金额预计将以数 十万亿美元计算，极大推动可再生能源、储能技术和电动汽车等行业的发展。 永明资产管理(香港)行政总裁刘以浩表示，相信人工智能的投资热潮尚未结束，亦非处于泡沫阶段，因 为与人工智能相关的产业链正受惠于正面的溢出效应。 永明资产管理(香港)首席投资策略师龚伟怡表示，内地正加速经济和社会领域人工智能的应用，利好科 技、医疗保健、有色金属等行业板块，科技板块的盈利预期持续上调，半导体行业亦受惠于AI带动的 投资及国内替代需求。同时，地缘政治风险缓解，流动性注入利好内地和香港股市，对未来12个月的港 股前景维持中性看法。 随着投资环境波动性增加，低碳策略较传统股票策略提供较高的抗跌力，及相对较佳回报。永明资 ...

为什么在当前时点讨论 2026 年美国通胀走势具有重要意义？ 讨论 2026 年美国通胀走势的重要性主要体现在两个方面。首先，关于 2026 年整体美国经济的宏观组合，目前存在争议。经济可能呈现滞胀、衰退或软着 陆等不同情况，而通胀是其中一个关键维度。市场普遍认为增长边际回落，但 对通胀的看法不一。如果 2026 年通胀上行压力明显，且经济边际走弱，将导 致滞胀局面，对美联储政策产生重大影响，包括降息空间和重新紧缩的可能性。 其次，近期市场表现最好的资产是商品，如黄金和铜，有观点认为 2026 年原 油价格也可能上涨。这种预期背后需要美国及海外通胀上行的配合。如果 CPI 上行力度不足，商品交易逻辑将发生变化。因此，探讨美国通胀对于判断未来 美联储政策和商品交易策略至关重要。 大宗商品价格上涨不一定带动 CPI 同步上行。历史数据显示，即使能源 价格大幅上涨，美国核心 CPI 也未显著受影响。目前原油价格未显著上 涨，对核心 CPI 拉动作用有限。 服务类项目（占核心 CPI 约 70%）具有滞后性，如住房、医疗、汽车保 险等，与全社会总体成本相关。由于美国整体成本增速下降，预计 2026 年服务分项大幅上涨 ...

2025年，环氧丙烷扩能脚步仍在迈进，产能、产量双双稳步增长，但需求方面，"旺季不旺，淡季不 淡"的状态延续，下游内贸需求依旧疲软，出口方面，受海外新能源汽车爆发式发展及转港出口俄罗斯 等方面的影响，较去年有所增量，对环氧丙烷存在阶段性适时支撑。 上半年，国内环氧丙烷市场波谲云诡，价格呈现"W"走势 10月国庆节后，环氧丙烷供应端检修利好兑现，南北现货收紧，下游被动刚需跟进，交投气氛良好，10 月上中旬价格以涨为主；下旬，随着环氧丙烷价格推涨至高位后，终端客户躺平摆烂心态升温，需求链 条传导持续不畅下，下游对高价环氧丙烷抵触心态升温，叠加前期部分检修工厂装置负荷陆续恢复中， 市场利空气氛积聚，价格承压下滑。 11-12月份，市场受意外波动消息及大厂外采环氧丙烷带动为主，意外装置波动例如11月鑫岳装置临时 停车、泉炼常减压装置失火，12月份天津渤化环氧丙烷装置临时停车，大厂外采支撑亦较注重时间段， 控盘意图明显，因此11-12月份市场心态虽以空为主，但难改供应装置不断波动影响，导致价格持续处 于7700-8000元/吨区间波动。(环氧丙烷分析师：孙珊珊) 4-6月份，市场受关税影响较为明显。4月初中美关税升级叠 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Insights - In FY2025Q3, the company achieved revenue of $2.57 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7%, exceeding market expectations (Bloomberg consensus forecast of $2.48 billion) [2][6] - Gross margin decreased by 2.9 percentage points to 55.6%, primarily impacted by rising tariffs, increased discounts, and foreign exchange losses [2][6] - Operating profit margin fell by 3.5 percentage points to 17.0%, while net profit decreased by 13% to $310 million, with a net profit margin of 12.0%, down 2.7 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] Revenue Breakdown - By region, FY2025Q3 revenue for the U.S./North America/Greater China was $1.38 billion/-2% /$1.73 billion/-3% /$510 million/+42%, with Greater China benefiting from e-commerce growth and offline store expansion, while North America faced pressure due to weak store traffic, declining average transaction value, and lower conversion rates [7] - By channel, FY2025Q3 revenue from direct sales/e-commerce was $1.21 billion/+$0.107 billion/+13%, with direct sales growth slowing sequentially, while e-commerce maintained strong growth [7] - By category, FY2025Q3 revenue for women's/men's/other products was $1.64 billion/+6% /$600 million/+8% /$320 million/+12%, showing steady performance across categories [7] Inventory and Guidance - As of FY2025Q3, the company's inventory increased by 11% year-on-year to $2 billion, with expectations for unit inventory growth in FY2026Q4 and dollar inventory growth in double digits year-on-year [12] - The company slightly raised its full-year guidance, expecting FY2025 revenue of $10.962 to $11.047 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4% (previous guidance was $10.85 to $11 billion, a 2% to 4% increase) [12]

12月的一个工作日，马克·拉蒂诺和几名工人正忙着将成卷的乙烯基片材加工成圣诞树上悬挂的闪亮箔 丝。他们使用的定制机器已有近百年历史，在长达35英尺（约10米）的生产线上，源源不断地产出银光 闪烁的箔丝。 拉蒂诺是Lee Display公司的首席执行官。这家位于加州费尔菲尔德的公司由其曾祖父在1902年创立，最 初生产用于帽饰的手工天鹅绒和丝绸花。如今，它已成为美国仅存的少数本土人造圣诞树制造商之一， 年产量约1万棵。 关税波及圣诞树 今年，关税政策让人造圣诞树成为关注焦点，同时也凸显出美国在塑料圣诞树上对进口的高度依赖。 图片来源：视觉中国 行业组织美国圣诞树协会表示，受新关税影响，今年人造圣诞树的价格上涨了10%至15%。不少销售商 因此减少了订货量，并为现有库存支付了更高的关税。 尽管面临这些问题，圣诞树企业普遍认为，在亚洲布局数十年后，大规模将产能迁回美国并不现实。 National Tree公司每年售出超过100万棵人造树，其首席执行官克里斯·巴特勒指出，人造树属于劳动密 集型产品，而且需要搭配节日灯饰等配件，而这些配件在美国已不再生产。 巴特勒表示，美国消费者对节日装饰品的价格非常敏感。 "如果价格 ...

Consumers already battered by higher prices are about to feel another squeeze — and this one is coming from copper.Copper prices have surged past $12,000 per metric ton for the first time, setting a record on the London Metal Exchange and triggering fresh cost pressures across the economy.The rally is being driven by a volatile mix of trade uncertainty, tight supply and rising demand — with everyday products increasingly caught in the crossfire. 3 Copper prices have surged past $12,000 per metric ton, hit ...

By November, the Greensboro, N.C.-based company said it expected to substantially offset the impact from increases in tariffs over a 12-to-18-month period through a combination of targeted price increases, sourcing and production optimization within its global supply chain, inventory management, supplier partnerships and other initiatives.“This time will be no different. We have operated through multiple cycles and have the team and operating playbook to not only navigate the current environment but come th ...

Inflation Data - The November CPI in the U.S. increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1%[2] - The core CPI rose by 2.6% year-on-year, significantly below the expected 3%, marking the lowest level since March 2021[2] - Month-on-month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, down from the previous value of 0.3%[2] Data Collection Issues - Data collection for CPI was disrupted due to a government shutdown, leading to limited reference data for October and November[2] - The Labor Bureau used September data as a base for October due to the lack of survey data, raising concerns about data comparability[2] - The collection window for November data was extended, but this change still affects the reliability of the data[2] Market Expectations - Despite the lower inflation figures, market expectations for interest rate cuts remain largely unchanged, with a 72.3% probability of no rate change in January 2026[2] - The probability of a rate cut in March 2026 remains below 50%, indicating market skepticism about the inflation data[2] Geopolitical and Economic Risks - Potential escalation in U.S.-China tensions could significantly impact foreign trade and financial markets[5] - Geopolitical crises, such as the Israel-Palestine or Russia-Ukraine conflicts, may lead to increased global risk aversion and market volatility[5] - A downturn in the U.S. economy could exert additional pressure on the global economy, affecting trade and financial markets[5]

Medline stock made a blockbuster debut on Wednesday with its IPO listing at $29 per share. The company raised roughly $6.26 billion and hit the public markets with an implied valuation near $50 billion, making it the year's biggest listing. The Northfield, Illinois-based medical-supplies giant, backed by Blackstone, Carlyle, and Hellman & Friedman, upsized the deal to meet robust institutional demand. Opening trades suggested the stock could gap higher on day one. But investors need to focus on some critica ...

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese automotive industry is concerned that a potential interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan could impact companies' ability to raise wages in the next fiscal year, particularly if it leads to significant yen appreciation, which may affect exporter confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Wage Negotiations and Economic Impact - The automotive union plans to seek a minimum monthly wage increase of 12,000 yen (approximately $77.50), which represents a stronger stance compared to last year's increase of 9,520 yen or 3.58%, the highest since 1996 [2][3]. - The union's focus will also be on narrowing the wage gap between large and small companies, as smaller firms saw an average wage increase of 8,688 yen, significantly lower than the 12,831 yen increase for larger firms [2][3]. - The union leader expressed that the upcoming wage negotiations could be influenced by the government's tax policies, particularly if large companies are excluded from tax incentives aimed at supporting wage increases [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Policy Responses - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise the policy interest rate to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years, with economists predicting a gradual tightening of policy every six months, potentially reaching a terminal rate of 1.25% [1][2]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on automotive manufacturers is significant, with an estimated total impact of 2.5 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending in March, leading to a nearly 20% reduction in car prices in North America earlier this year [3]. - The Japanese government has introduced a substantial economic package, including approximately 980 billion yen aimed at promoting wage growth, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises [3].