多个美国食品行业团体目前正试图推动获得特朗普所征高额关税的豁免。这些行业团体警告称，食品行 业特别容易受到特朗普关税的冲击，因为从鱼类到黄瓜等一系列美国农产品，难以在美国国内以可承受 的成本种植。 就在美国食品行业团体提出这一主张之际，美国总统特朗普本月已对数十个贸易伙伴实施了全面的对等 关税，将美国的实际有效关税税率推高至了数十年来的最高水平，此举可能重塑全球贸易。 美国国家渔业协会首席战略官Gavin Gibbons表示，"(食品领域)有太多声音、太多产品声称'我们只需要 豁免，因为我们与其他领域不同'。" 那么，美国食品领域未来能成功获得特朗普政府的关税豁免吗？ 对此，Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg律师事务所管理负责人Nicole Bivens Collinson表示，鉴于目前没有既 定的申请关税减免流程，食品领域的豁免程序可能较为复杂。 尽管美国民众日常消费的大部分食品，是由其国内庞大的农业部门生产的。但根据美国农业部的数据， 依然有约五分之一的食品需要仰赖于进口。 Gibbons表示，水产品与其他食品类型存在"本质不同"，因为美国85%的水产品消费依赖进口。美国水 域已达到最 ...

由于针对小额包裹的关税豁免即将到期，全球多国邮政公司纷纷宣布暂停向美国递送包裹。 上个月（7月30日）美国总统特朗普宣布，从8月29日起暂停对价值800美元及以下的进口包裹给予免税待遇。 西班牙邮政22日宣布，因美方关税政策调整，自8月25日起暂时停止受理寄往美国及波多黎各、申报价值不超过800美元的低价值包 裹。无商业价值的信函以及书籍或价值不超过100美元的礼品仍可寄递。 法国邮政集团当地时间22日宣布，受美国关税政策影响，该集团自本月25日起将暂停向美国寄送包裹，价值低于100欧元的私人礼品 包裹除外。 届时，凡是通过非国际邮政系统(如联邦快递等)运送至美国、且申报价值在800美元以下的商业包裹，将不再享有所谓"最低关税豁 免"，需按规定缴纳所有适用关税。 代表51家欧洲邮政公司的欧洲邮政协会（PostEurope）本周二（8月19日）表示，美国关税的征收方式以及必须向美国当局提交哪些数 据等关键细节尚未完全确定。美国海关和边境保护局于8月15日发布了有限的技术指导，因此在截止日期前全面实施的时间已所剩无 几。 该行业协会在一份声明中表示："如果在8月29日法规生效之前，关键问题和流程未能明确，从而无法 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年8月20日 | | 不锈钢 | SS2510 | 盘面震荡走弱,成本支撑需求仍有拖累 | 主力参考12800-13500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 原油 | SC2510 | 俄乌问题缓和预期进一步增加,远期供应宽松拖累油价偏弱运 行 | 建议偏空思路对待,跨月建议逢低做扩10-11/12 月差, WTI下方支撑给到[60,61],布伦特在 [63,64],SC在[470,480];期权端等待波动放 | | | | | | 大后做扩机会,仅供参考 | | | 尿素 | UR2601 | 消息面推升隐含波动率,后市需跟踪出口集港变化情况 | 盘面反弹后,短期看多需谨慎,若后续无更多实质 利好驱动则转向逢高空,短期上方阻力位给到 1850-1870 | | | PX | PX2511 | 供需压力整体不大且需求端预期好转,PX低位存支撑 | 短期在6600-6900震荡对待;PX-SC价差低位做 | | | | | | 扩为主 | | | PTA | TA2601 | 低加工费但成本端支撑有限,短期PT ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The shipping industry (European route) is rated as "volatile" [4] Core Viewpoints - The extension of the tariff exemption period may not reproduce the first - round market for the US route, and the transmission effect of the second - round exemption on the European route will be significantly weakened. The European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. First - round 90 - day tariff exemption period US route market review - From April to May 2025, due to the change of US tariff policy, the US route market experienced three typical stages: short - term pulse - type rebound period, high - level shock adjustment period, and supply - demand weakening downward period. The overall market trend was weaker than the initial optimistic expectations [8][9] 2. Tariff exemption period extension, US route may not reproduce the first - round market - The freight rate upward cycle driven by the first - round tariff exemption policy was short - lived, with a particularly short high - level platform period. Constrained by high inventory and the approaching off - season, the second - round 90 - day tariff exemption window will have a significantly weakened marginal stimulation effect on new demand. On August 12, the tariff exemption was extended for 90 days, but the US route is difficult to reproduce the first - round market [15][16][20] 3. Second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route is weakened - Before the tariff exemption, the European route market faced supply - demand surplus and seasonal off - season pressure. During the first - round exemption, the European route freight rate was strongly supported. However, due to the US route's difficulty in reproducing the first - round market and the shipping companies' conservative deployment strategy, the second - round exemption's transmission effect on the European route will be significantly weakened [28] 4. European route freight rate trend depends on its own supply - demand evolution - In August, the European route freight rate declined from the top due to increased supply and weakened demand. In the traditional off - season from September to October, the downward trend is established. Short - term bearish thinking is maintained, and the strategy of shorting October is recommended. If there is an unexpected suspension of voyages, the trading logic may switch, and opportunities such as going long on December or 10 - 12 reverse spreads can be considered [3][32][33]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides investment analysis and operation suggestions for various commodities on August 13, 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Core Views - The Sino-US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the central political bureau meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one, affecting the financial and commodity markets [3] - The inflation in the US remained moderate, boosting the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the US dollar declined, which had an impact on the prices of gold, silver and other commodities [3] Group 3: Variety Analysis and Operation Suggestions Equity Index - The Sino - US joint statement on extending tariff exemptions led to a continued upward trend in the equity index. There was a short - term expectation difference in the market. It was advisable to sell the MO2509 put option with an exercise price around 6400 at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [3] Treasury Bonds - The current stage of bond futures was suppressed by the strong performance of equities, and the overall sentiment was weak. Unilateral strategies suggested short - term waiting and focusing on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. Curve strategies could appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [3] Precious Metals - The macro news increased the volatility of gold prices, but there was still a possibility of a pulse - like rise. A bull spread portfolio could be constructed through gold call options at low prices after the price correction. The silver price was expected to maintain a range - bound shock and still had upward space. A bull spread strategy could be constructed using silver put options at relatively low prices to earn premium income [3] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract oscillated weakly. It was expected to oscillate weakly, and the idea of shorting at high prices should be maintained [3] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel mills' inventory accumulation was not significant, providing support for steel prices. It was advisable to try to go long on dips. The iron ore shipments decreased and the port inventory and clearance increased, following the steel price fluctuations. It was advisable to go long on dips and short iron ore while going long on coking coal [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal futures rebounded, and the spot auction was strong. The large - mine long - term agreement price increased. It was advisable to go long on dips. The sixth round of price increases for mainstream coking plants was launched, and there was still an expectation of further increases. It was advisable to go long on dips [3] Non - ferrous Metals - The expectation of interest rate cuts improved, and the copper price strengthened slightly. The main contract reference range was 78,000 - 80,000. The market priced in a higher probability of interest rate cuts in September due to the slowdown of US inflation. The zinc price main contract reference range was 22,000 - 23,000. For tin, it was necessary to pay attention to the import situation from Myanmar and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] Energy and Chemicals - The oil price was mainly oscillating in the short term. It was advisable to wait and see unilaterally and expand the spread between October - November/December. For PX, it was treated as an oscillation in the range of 6600 - 6900 and expand the PX - SC spread at low levels. For PTA, it was oscillating in the short term in the range of 4600 - 4800. For short - fiber, it was oscillating in the range of 6300 - 6500 [3] Agricultural Products - The US soybean export expectation improved. It was advisable to hold long positions in RM509. The palm oil was expected to have a large - amplitude shock after a strong upward rush, and the main contract might hit 9500. The overseas sugar supply outlook was relatively loose, and it was advisable to reduce the previous high - level short positions [3] Special Commodities - The glass industry was in a negative feedback process, and it was advisable to hold short positions. The rubber raw material price strengthened due to more rainfall in Thailand, and it was necessary to pay attention to the raw material supply during the peak season and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [3] New Energy Commodities - The polysilicon was oscillating downward with the increase of warehouse receipts. The lithium carbonate was affected by more news disturbances, and it was advisable to be cautious and wait and see [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Philippine government is advocating for exemptions from the proposed 100% tariffs on semiconductor imports by the United States, emphasizing the importance of the semiconductor industry as a key export sector [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - The U.S. has announced a potential 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, which remains uncertain as many countries are seeking exemptions [1] - The Philippine government is particularly focused on obtaining tariff exemptions for semiconductor products to protect its vital export industry [1] Group 2: Industry Role - The Philippines plays a crucial role in the semiconductor supply chain, specifically in the assembly, testing, and packaging processes, which are less favored by U.S. companies for in-house production [1] - The Philippine government hopes that the U.S. will recognize the significance of its semiconductor assembly capabilities and consider this in tariff discussions [1]

Group 1 - The EU anticipates an announcement from President Trump regarding lower tariffs on EU automobiles and exemptions for industrial goods like aircraft parts [1] - A joint statement is expected to outline the political commitments made by President Trump and EU Commission President von der Leyen last month [1] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will face a 15% tariff on most of its export goods, including automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - The White House confirmed that the general tariff will serve as a ceiling for the EU, while most other trade partners will have their benchmark rates added to the existing most-favored-nation rates [1] - The administrative order from the U.S. only covers reciprocal tariffs without specifying any exemptions or how industry measures will apply to trade partners [1] - Ongoing negotiations will address exemptions for wine, spirits, and other goods that may benefit from zero tariffs, while the EU is pushing for an agreement to allow a certain amount of steel and aluminum to be exported to the U.S. at rates lower than the current 50% [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall, the report presents a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and multiple commodity sectors. Market trends are influenced by a combination of factors such as policy announcements, economic data releases, and geopolitical events. For instance, the extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and inflation data in the US have had significant impacts on different futures markets [2][4][9]. - Different futures markets have their own specific outlooks. In the financial futures market, the stock index continues to rise, while the bond futures are under pressure. In the precious metals market, gold and silver prices stop falling and rebound due to inflation data and geopolitical factors. In the shipping market, the container shipping index shows a downward trend. In the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products also have their own supply - demand and price trends [2][6][10][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares showed an upward trend on August 12, with major indices rising. The four major stock index futures contracts also increased. The extension of tariff exemptions in the Sino - US trade talks and the release of relevant policies have affected the market. It is recommended to sell MO2509 put options at high prices and maintain a moderately bullish view [2][3][5]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures mostly declined, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally rose. The release of consumption - boosting policies has increased risk appetite and suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on financial data and new bond issuance pricing. A steeper yield curve strategy can be considered [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices stopped falling and rebounded. The US inflation data remained moderate, which increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The suspension of tariffs in the Sino - US trade talks also affected the market. It is recommended to build a bullish spread portfolio through gold call options and use silver put options to build a bullish spread strategy [8][9][10]. Container Shipping on the European Line - The container shipping index continued to decline. The global container capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in Europe and the US showed certain characteristics. It is expected that the market will be weakly volatile, and it is advisable to short the 08 and 10 contracts at high prices [12][13][14]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices strengthened slightly. The market expected an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September due to inflation data, and the extension of tariff exemptions reduced short - term risks. The supply and demand were weak during the off - season, but the price had support. It is recommended to expect the main contract to fluctuate between 78000 - 80000 [15][17][18]. - **Alumina**: The market was concerned about supply due to news events. Although the current supply was expected to increase in the medium - term, the short - term price might fluctuate widely between 3000 - 3400. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [20][21]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices were in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply was stable, but the demand was weak, and there were macro uncertainties. It is expected that the price will be under pressure in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 20000 - 21000 [22][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Terminal consumption was weak in the off - season, and the social inventory was close to full capacity. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, but the demand was suppressed. The price was expected to fluctuate widely between 19200 - 20200 [24][25][26]. - **Zinc**: The market priced in an increased probability of interest - rate cuts in September. The supply was loose, and the demand was weak, but the low inventory provided support. The price was expected to fluctuate between 22000 - 23000 [26][28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was affected by the expected interest - rate cuts. Supply and demand were both expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price may fluctuate widely. Pay attention to the import situation of tin ore from Myanmar [30][31][32]. - **Nickel**: The disk maintained a relatively strong operation, but the medium - term supply was expected to be abundant. The price was expected to adjust within the range of 120000 - 126000 [32][33][35]. - **Stainless Steel**: The disk oscillated strongly, but the demand was still a drag. The cost support was strengthened, but the fundamental demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate strongly between 13000 - 13500 [35][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price fluctuated greatly due to news. The current supply and demand were in a tight balance. The price was expected to fluctuate widely in a relatively strong range between 80000 - 90000, and attention could be paid to the positive spread opportunity between near and far months [39][41][42]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices were supported as the steel mill inventory did not increase significantly. The cost increased, and the profit improved. The supply was expected to increase in the third quarter, and the demand was stable. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing high prices [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price followed the steel price. The global shipment decreased, the demand was stable, and the port inventory increased slightly. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures rose strongly. The supply was tight, the demand was stable, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: The coke futures rose, and the sixth - round price increase was launched. The supply was difficult to increase, the demand was supported, and the inventory was at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract at low prices and consider arbitrage strategies [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The price of rapeseed meal increased due to the anti - dumping decision on Canadian rapeseed, and the price of soybean meal was affected by the USDA report. It is recommended to hold the 01 long positions [54][55][56]. - **Hogs**: The spot price of hogs oscillated weakly. The supply and demand were both weak in the short - term, and the 01 contract was affected by policies. It is not recommended to short blindly [57][58]. - **Corn**: The spot price of corn weakened, and the disk oscillated at a low level. The supply pressure was still significant in the medium - and long - term, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [59][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, and commodities, providing market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each sector [1][2][7][12][14] - Overall, the market shows a complex situation with different trends and influencing factors in each sector 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures Index Futures - On Thursday, the A - share market showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index down. The four major index futures contracts all declined, and their basis showed seasonal repair [2][3] - Domestic July export data was positive, and the Bank of England cut interest rates. The A - share trading volume slightly increased, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net withdrawal of funds [3][4] - It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on the MO contract with an exercise price of 6300 - 6400, taking a moderately bullish stance [4] Treasury Futures - Treasury futures closed mostly higher, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The central bank's net withdrawal of funds had little impact on market liquidity [5][6] - China's July export data was strong, and it is expected that the strong export performance may gradually converge. The short - term bond market lacks driving factors, and it is recommended to switch to a wait - and - see mode and focus on new bond issuance pricing and July economic data [6] Precious Metals - Multiple factors such as the US tariff on Swiss products, Trump's nomination for the Fed, and the Bank of England's interest - rate cut affected the market. The US dollar index declined, and gold and silver prices rose [7][8][10] - In the future, the attitude of Fed officials and US inflation data will increase market volatility. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, and it is recommended to buy on dips or sell put options. Silver is also expected to be strong - side oscillating, and long positions can be held [10][11] Shipping - Container Shipping Futures - As of August 7, the spot quotes of major shipping companies were provided. The SCFIS European line index and the SCFI composite index both declined [12] - The futures market showed a downward trend, and it is expected that the 10 - contract will be weakly oscillating in the short term. It is recommended to short the 08 and 10 contracts on rallies [13] Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The spot price of copper increased slightly, and the demand was stable. Macro - events had no obvious positive drivers. The supply of copper concentrate was expected to be restricted, and the output of refined copper increased in July but was expected to decline slightly in August [14][15] - The demand for copper showed resilience, and the inventory situation was mixed. The copper price was expected to oscillate within a range, and the main contract was expected to be between 77000 - 79000 [17] Alumina - The spot price of alumina was relatively stable. The output increased in July, and the inventory of ports and warehouse receipts increased [17][18] - The short - term price was supported by factors such as supply concerns and low warehouse receipts, but the market was expected to be in a slight surplus in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and short on rallies in the medium term, with the main contract expected to be between 3000 - 3400 [19] Aluminum - The spot price of aluminum increased, but the spot was weak with an expanding discount. The output of electrolytic aluminum increased in July, and the proportion of molten aluminum decreased [20] - The demand was in the traditional off - season, and the inventory increased. The aluminum price was expected to be under pressure in the short term, and the main contract was expected to be between 20000 - 21000 [21] Aluminum Alloy - The spot price of aluminum alloy increased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum alloy increased in June but was expected to decline in July. The demand was weak in July, and the inventory was close to full [22] - The price was expected to oscillate widely, and the main contract was expected to be between 19200 - 20200. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [23] Zinc - The spot price of zinc increased, and the supply of zinc ore was expected to be loose, but the output growth rate was lower than expected. The output of refined zinc increased in July [24] - The demand was weak, the inventory situation was mixed, and the zinc price was expected to oscillate, with the main contract expected to be between 22000 - 23000 [26] Tin - The spot price of tin decreased slightly, and the market transaction was dull. The import of tin ore and tin ingots decreased in June [26][27] - The demand was weak, and the inventory situation was mixed. It is recommended to wait and see, and the tin price is expected to oscillate widely, depending on the import recovery from Myanmar [28] Nickel - The spot price of nickel increased slightly. The output of refined nickel was high in July and was expected to increase slightly. The demand was stable in some areas but weak in stainless steel and sulfuric acid nickel [28][29] - The inventory situation was mixed. The nickel price was expected to be oscillating within a range, and the main contract was expected to be between 118000 - 126000 [30] Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly. The output of stainless steel was expected to increase in August. The demand was weak, and the inventory was slowly decreasing [31][32] - The price was expected to oscillate, and the main contract was expected to be between 12600 - 13200. Attention should be paid to policies and supply - demand rhythm [33] Lithium Carbonate - The spot price of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The output increased in July and was expected to increase in August. The demand was stable, and the inventory increased [34][35][36] - The futures price increased significantly, mainly driven by market sentiment and news. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously, and the main contract may test 75000 [37] Commodities - Ferrous Metals Steel - The spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the basis weakened. The cost increased, and the profit of steel mills improved. The output of steel was expected to increase in the third quarter [38] - The demand showed a slight decline, and the inventory increased. The steel price was supported, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up [39][40] Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore decreased slightly, and the futures price also declined. The demand for iron ore was still high, but the iron water output decreased slightly [41][42] - The supply decreased in terms of global shipments, and the port inventory increased. It is recommended to short the 2601 contract on rallies and conduct an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal 01 and short iron ore 01 [43] Coking Coal - The futures price of coking coal rebounded, and the spot price increased. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand was stable. The inventory decreased [44][45][46] - It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [47] Coke - The futures price of coke increased, and the fifth - round price increase was implemented. The supply of coke was difficult to increase, and the demand was supported. The inventory decreased [48][49][50] - It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and conduct a 9 - 1 positive arbitrage [51] Commodities - Agricultural Products Meal - The spot price of soybean meal was stable or decreased slightly, and the price of rapeseed meal decreased. The export of US soybeans was expected to increase, and the export of Brazilian and Ukrainian soybeans was also significant [53][54] - The supply of domestic soybeans and soybean meal increased, but the arrival of soybeans after October was uncertain. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 2601 contract of soybean meal [54][55] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs decreased. The profit of hog farming showed different trends in different scales. The inventory of sows increased slightly [56] - The supply and demand were both weak, and the short - term pig price was not optimistic. It is not recommended to blindly short the far - month 01 contract, and attention should be paid to hedging funds [57] Corn - The spot price of corn showed different trends in different regions. The inventory of corn in ports and processing enterprises decreased, and the inventory of feed enterprises was relatively sufficient [59][60] - The short - term market rebounded slightly, but the sentiment was still weak. In the long term, the supply pressure was still significant, and attention should be paid to the growth of new - season corn [60] Sugar - The international sugar price was oscillating at the bottom, and the domestic sugar price was also at the bottom. The sugar production in Brazil increased in July but the cumulative production decreased year - on - year. The production in India and Thailand was expected to be high [61] - The domestic demand was weak, and the supply was expected to be marginally loose. It is expected that the domestic sugar price will be bearish [61]