以下文章来源于风声OPINION ，作者贾拥民 理解复杂世界。 低价≠内卷，反内卷≠反竞争 首先要破除一个误区。现在"内卷"这个词明显被滥用了。似乎任何有点激烈的竞争，尤其是以低价竞 争，都会被指斥"内卷"。 风声OPINION . 网约车司机的收入，归根到底不是由自己付出了多少劳动来决定的，而是由其他行业的人的收入来决 定的。另一方面，网约车司机的劳动付出也决定不了网约车价格，网约车市场的供需状况才能决定价 格。本文来自微信公众号： 风声OPINION ，作者：贾拥民（均衡研究所学术顾问，浙江大学跨学科 中心特约研究员），编辑：柏林，题图来自：虎嗅（张一然拍摄） 近日来，西安禁止网约车"一口价""特惠单"的消息引起了广泛关注。8月18日，西安市交通运输局发 布通知，要求各网约车平台从8月19日0时开始，全面暂停"一口价""特惠单"等低价营销活动。 西安市交通运输局称，此举是因近期出租汽车驾驶员集中投诉网约车平台采取"一口价"等方式实施低 价营销和恶意竞争，严重扰乱了市场正常经营秩序，破坏公平竞争环境，侵害从业人员合法权益。 事实上，以反内卷和保护司机利益的名义出手严管网约车"一口价"的地方政府并不少。近期， ...

网约车司机的收入，归根到底不是由自己付出了多少劳动来决定的，而是由其他行业的人的收入来决定的。另一方面，网约车司机的 劳动付出也决定不了网约车价格，网约车市场的供需状况才能决定价格。 凤凰网《风声》出品 ID｜ifengopinion 近日来，西安禁止网约车"一口价""特惠单"的消息引起了广泛关注。8月18日，西安市交通运输局发布通知，要求各网约车平台从8月 19日0时开始，全面暂停"一口价""特惠单"等低价营销活动。 西安市交通运输局称，此举是因近期出租汽车驾驶员集中投诉网约车平台采取"一口价"等方式实施低价营销和恶意竞争，严重扰乱了 市场正常经营秩序，破坏公平竞争环境，侵害从业人员合法权益。 事实上，以反内卷和保护司机利益的名义出手严管网约车"一口价"的地方政府并不少。近期，江西鹰潭、浙江宁波、河南开封、广东 清远等多地交通部门也召开会议或约谈平台，要求杜绝恶意无序低价竞争，不得以低于成本价的方式实施低价竞争，保护驾驶员的合 法利益。此外，云南昆明、海南三亚、山东济南等城市也曾出手整治"低价竞争"。 西安的特殊性有两点：一是西安的网约车司机密度很高，在全国排第三位，因此西安的举措可能有风向标意义；二是，此 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 很多投资者都是从投资指数基金开始自己的投资之路的。 但是怎样投资指数基金，才能获得好收益？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，介绍了指数基金的投资技巧。 想要获取这个课程，可以添加下方「课程小助手」，回复「 指数基金 」领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 #螺丝钉小知识 门槛比较低的机会，就意味着人人都可以 arml 银行螺丝钉 投资中的护城河理念，是啥意思? 什么是护城河呢? 巴菲特在1999年的《财富》杂志上，发 表了一篇文章，介绍了他的护城河理论。 「投资的关键在于确定一家公司的竞争优 势,尤为重要的是这种优势的持续性。被 宽阔、长流不息的护城河所保护的产品或 服务，才能给投资者带来丰厚的回报。」 我们想一想,如果社会上出现了一个,很 容易就能够拿到的赚钱机会，这个赚钱的 门槛比较低。 进去,那这个机会就会被迅速的摊平了。 像几十年前刚开始下海的时候，随便做点 小生意都很容易赚钱,但现在再做的话, 可能就辛苦很多,因为竞争的对手变多, 也变得更厉害了。 我们去做一个企业，不管这个企业是自己 的一个小摊位，还是大到一家上市公司， 任何一 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the paradox of China's economy, where a large population coexists with weak consumer purchasing power despite high GDP figures [1][3][4] - It discusses the struggles of low-income workers, such as delivery riders and factory employees, who face harsh working conditions and low wages, contributing to the wealth accumulation of the affluent [3][6][7] Economic Conditions - China's economic model relies on land revenue to subsidize infrastructure, resulting in low transportation costs and affordable logistics [3][4] - The country is experiencing deflationary pressures, with a significant 18% drop in foreign trade orders and a 40% decrease in land fiscal revenue compared to three years ago [4][6] Labor Market Dynamics - The minimum wage in Shanghai is only 2,690 yuan, while some workers earn as little as 2,200 yuan, highlighting the disparity between high GDP and low wages [3][6] - Many companies fail to provide basic social security for employees, with a significant number of labor disputes arising from inadequate compensation practices [6][7] Government Initiatives - The government introduced a child-rearing subsidy of 300 yuan per month per child, covering 610,000 families in its first year, but the amount is insufficient to cover basic childcare costs [6][7] - The subsidy is designed to be tax-exempt and not deducted from social welfare benefits, yet it may not effectively address the underlying economic challenges faced by low-income families [6][7]

摘要 内卷导致资源错配，企业边际收益递减，长期扭曲竞争机制，阻碍企业 向微笑曲线两端发展，损害行业创新能力和质量标准，最终由消费者承 担低价低质的后果。 中国政府自 2024 年以来，通过中央政治局会议、经济工作会议及各部 委行政法规，在法律、产业、财政、医保、投资准入等多维度推动反内 卷治理，行业层面已扩散至有色金属、光伏、汽车、水泥及金融等。 可通过 CAPEX 毛利率和存货历史分位水平衡量行业内卷程度，上游周 期资源行业内卷程度较高，中游制造与下游科技行业相对较紧致；行业 集中度高和国企占比高的行业，政策响应力更强，供给侧出清速率更快。 内卷导致中国供需矛盾机制性扭曲，消费比重下降，企业研发支出增速 放缓，影响产业升级。光伏企业因产能过剩和技术升级滞后，错失发展 机遇。 当前反垄断和反内卷政策目标是治理低价无序竞争，推动落后产能退出， 提振通胀预期，降低实际利率以刺激居民需求，并建立动态行业清单管 理机制，避免对新兴产业的过度压制。 "反内卷"政策的脉络与展望 20250821 Q&A 什么是内卷，经济学理论如何解释内卷现象？ 内卷是一种没有发展的增长或无效的过度竞争。最早由美国人类学家格尔茨提 出，后 ...

Group 1 - The coal industry is experiencing signs of "involution," characterized by increased supply without corresponding profit growth, leading to a decline in revenue and profit margins [2][4] - From January to June, coal production reached a historical high of 2.4 billion tons, an increase of 120 million tons or 5.4% year-on-year, while coal consumption remains limited [2][4] - The number of coal mines in China has decreased from over 4,600 to below 4,300 since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, indicating a trend towards consolidation in the industry [2][4] Group 2 - The coal production is increasingly concentrated in major producing regions such as Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, which accounted for 82.03% of total production in the first five months of the year [4] - The coal industry is facing significant operational pressures, particularly in older mining regions, where some companies are experiencing severe losses due to declining market prices [4][5] - Companies are adapting by transitioning operations from older mining areas to newer, more productive regions, which is essential for maintaining competitiveness [4][5] Group 3 - The demand for coal in the power generation sector has increased due to rising electricity demand, with thermal power generation seeing a year-on-year growth [6] - Major coal companies are enhancing their coal-to-power integration strategies, which allows them to reduce fuel costs and improve operational efficiency [6][7] - Companies like China Energy Group and China Coal are leveraging their coal supply to enhance the competitiveness of their power generation operations [7]

Core Viewpoint - The term "involution" reflects a superficial price war among companies, but its deeper essence lies in the imbalance of value creation models [1] Economic Roots of "Involution" - Price discrimination and market segmentation failure are significant inducements for "involution," where companies fail to effectively cover high willingness-to-pay consumer groups, leading to increased price sensitivity among overall consumers [2] - Supply-demand imbalance exacerbates the spread of price wars, as excessive competition can lead to oversupply, causing prices to drop below costs and overall industry profit levels to decline [3] - Unsustainable pricing below average variable costs (AVC) further weakens companies' competitive resilience, as long-term pricing strategies must cover both AVC and average costs (AC) to ensure profitability and support reinvestment [3] Economic Logic of "Anti-Involution" - "Anti-involution" is not a denial of competition but a restructuring of competitive frameworks, focusing on value creation rather than low-dimensional price competition [4] - Key paths include restoring pricing power, achieving supply-demand matching, and returning to cost-based pricing, which are interrelated and form the internal logic of "anti-involution" [4] Transition from "Involution" to "Creation" - Companies need to build a comprehensive competitive system based on precise pricing, driven by technological innovation and brand building, to shift from passive consumption to active creation [6] - Technological innovation is fundamental for long-term competitiveness, allowing companies to shift focus from price comparison to performance, quality, and experience [6] - Brand building and emotional premium can enhance pricing power, as consumers are willing to pay for recognition and values [6] - Cross-industry collaboration and supply chain cooperation can help the industry escape inefficient competition by reducing redundant investments and improving resource utilization [6] - Digital empowerment through big data and AI can support precise pricing and demand forecasting, reducing the risk of excessive competition [7]

Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is transitioning from a focus on market share to sustainable profitability, as evidenced by recent price increases in response to rising logistics costs and changing market dynamics [4][16]. Price Increase and Its Implications - Starting August 4, express delivery prices in Guangdong Province were raised by 0.4 yuan per ticket, with the average ticket price exceeding 1.4 yuan [5]. - This price increase may significantly impact low-margin businesses that rely on low-cost shipping, potentially erasing their profits [5][6]. - The cost increase will be distributed across the e-commerce ecosystem, affecting sellers and ultimately consumers, who may experience indirect cost increases through higher product prices or reduced service quality [7][9]. Industry Dynamics and Profit Redistribution - The price hike is expected to trigger a reallocation of profits within the industry, particularly affecting franchise operators who have been under financial strain due to previous price wars [9][12]. - The express delivery sector has been characterized by intense competition and price wars, leading to a significant decline in average ticket prices over the past five years, with a 32% drop [13]. Shift in Market Focus - The express delivery industry is moving towards a model that prioritizes profitability over market share, as capital markets are no longer willing to support unprofitable growth strategies [16][18]. - Companies are expected to enhance service quality, operational efficiency, and technological innovation to create competitive advantages, rather than relying solely on low prices [16][17]. Consumer Behavior and Market Changes - Consumers accustomed to "free shipping" may need to adjust to a new reality where shipping costs are more transparent, leading to clearer choices between low-cost, standardized delivery and premium, personalized services [18][21]. - The rise in logistics costs may also accelerate the growth of instant retail, which offers faster delivery options and could capture market share from traditional e-commerce [17][18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "involution" in consumer markets, highlighting how businesses often replicate each other, leading to a lack of uniqueness and consumer engagement [4][21]. Group 1: Examples of Involution - Many famous shopping streets in China look almost identical, offering the same local snacks and souvenirs, which detracts from the authentic local experience [2]. - Renowned shopping centers in China feature similar luxury brands and products, making shopping a monotonous experience [3][4]. Group 2: Causes of Involution - Involution occurs because businesses engage in the same practices, leading to a homogenized market [5][15]. - The article references the insights of Japanese social psychologist Minoru Miura, who emphasizes the importance of uniqueness in consumer offerings [5][15]. Group 3: Case Study of Shimokitazawa - Shimokitazawa, a vibrant Tokyo community, initially saw a decline in popularity due to the influx of chain stores that diluted its unique character [9][10]. - To combat this, the community began to reject chain stores and welcomed unique local shops, which helped restore its vibrancy [11][12][14]. Group 4: Lessons from Japan - The article suggests that instead of competing to be the best in a saturated market, businesses should focus on being unique and distinctive [15]. - The flagship store of Tommy in Tokyo exemplifies this approach by offering exclusive products that cannot be found in other locations, highlighting the value of uniqueness [16][17]. Group 5: Future Opportunities - The article outlines a learning trip to Japan aimed at understanding how Japanese brands thrive despite economic challenges, providing insights for Chinese businesses [19][21]. - It emphasizes the need for Chinese brands to adapt to changing consumer behaviors and market dynamics, learning from Japan's experience [21][22]. Group 6: Key Strategies for Success - The article identifies three core strategies for successful Japanese brands: supply chain-driven private label products, continuous iteration of key products, and creating lifestyle definitions that resonate emotionally with consumers [22][24]. - Examples include Kobe Bussan's efficient supply chain model and Nitori's innovative furniture supply chain management [22][26].

Group 1 - The concept of "involution" refers to a process where internal complexity increases under external constraints, leading to ineffective competition and diminishing returns on effort [1][8][14] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address excessive competition and improve resource allocation efficiency, particularly in industries like steel and agriculture, where profit margins have been severely compressed [3][14][21] - The current economic structure in China shows a mismatch between supply and demand, with overcapacity in traditional industries and insufficient consumer demand, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development [20][25][30] Group 2 - The central government has established a comprehensive policy framework to combat "involution," which includes legal reforms, industry regulations, and measures to enhance labor rights [2][31][34] - Specific industries such as non-ferrous metals, photovoltaics, and automobiles are experiencing heightened scrutiny and regulatory measures to curb "involution" and promote sustainable growth [2][36][38] - The automotive industry is particularly affected by price wars, which threaten profitability and product quality, prompting calls for adherence to fair competition principles [43] Group 3 - The "anti-involution" measures are expected to stabilize industrial product prices and improve industry concentration, as seen in previous supply-side reforms that led to significant profit recovery in sectors like steel [3][4][14] - The photovoltaic industry faces challenges from low-cost competition, which has led to a decline in profit margins and necessitates a focus on innovation and quality improvement [38][42] - The non-ferrous metals sector is undergoing adjustments to address overcapacity and ensure sustainable development, with new regulations aimed at balancing supply and demand [36][37] Group 4 - Future policies will focus on creating a unified national market and optimizing competition order, with an emphasis on preventing price dumping and promoting industry self-regulation [4][31] - The relationship between "anti-involution" and the establishment of a unified market is crucial for addressing market distortions and fostering a fair competitive environment [4][31] - The ongoing adjustments in various industries highlight the need for a coordinated approach to manage capacity and enhance overall market efficiency [2][36][38]