| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 76 ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 2 | 4640 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 536 | 71 | 544 | 4680 | 7680 | -181 | 211 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 76 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price Changes**: - **Daily Changes**: On Thursday, the low - end price in East China was 4387 (+0), in Shandong was 4570 (+20), and in South China was 4600 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4620 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 7 (-55) and a 10 - 11 month spread of 113 (+33). FEI and CP c1 decreased to 550 (-3) and 544 (-3) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained unchanged at 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread dropped to -14.5 dollars (-3.5) [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6). The external market price increased. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly: PG - CP to 75 (-3); PG - FEI to 67.6 (-9.3). The FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: - **Supply and Demand**: Incoming shipments decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand decreased, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both declined [1]. - **Profitability**: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. - **Shipping and Spreads**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha spread strengthened [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The decline in South China prices is mainly due to the impact of the typhoon, which led to the near - stagnation of exports and some refineries reducing prices to clear inventories. With an increase in port and factory inventories, a decline in chemical demand, and sufficient supply in Shandong, the market is under pressure [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Price Changes - **Domestic Spot Prices**: On Tuesday, the low - end price in East China was 4385 (+0), in Shandong it was 4550 (+0), and in South China it was 4600 (-40). The price of ether - after carbon four was 4670 (-10). The South China price decrease was due to the typhoon impact [1]. - **International Prices**: FEI and CP changed little. As of 2:30 pm, FEI was 549 (+1) and CP was 543 (+0) dollars/ton. The FEI monthly spread remained at 5 dollars, and the CP monthly spread was - 11 [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 62 (+3) [1]. Market Indicators - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of the lowest delivery area in East China was 60 (+19), and the 10 - 11 monthly spread was 70 (+0). The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. The PG - CP was 75 (-3), the PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3), and the FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5) [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: There were 13002 warehouse receipts (-6), with Shanghai Yuchi decreasing by 1 and Donghua decreasing by 5 [1]. - **Freight**: Freight continued to rise. The freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Incoming shipments decreased, and external shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE also decreased [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to arriving resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Data and Changes - From September 15 - 19, 2025, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed different trends. South China increased from 4540 to 4650 (+100), East China decreased from 4504 to 4415 (-92), and Shandong remained at 4530 with a previous increase of 30. The price of Shandong ether - post - carbon four decreased from 4790 to 4700 (-60). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. - On a daily basis, the PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The basis weakened to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6) [1]. - Ex - market prices rose. The FEI spread increased by 1, the MB spread remained unchanged, and the CP spread was -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP dropped to 75 (-3); PG - FEI dropped to 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP increased to 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. Market Conditions and Trends - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7). FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha crack spread strengthened [1]. - PDH - to - PP profits continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low. The inflow to ports decreased, the outflow increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories [1]. - Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). Hebei Haiwei resumed operations, while Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Jinfafa were under maintenance and shut down, and Binhuaxin Material reduced its load. The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Information Price and Basis - **Domestic Prices**: On September 17, 2025, the prices in East China were 4499 (-5), in Shandong were 4540 (+10), and in South China were 4550 (+10). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4720 (-70). The lowest delivery location was East China [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of the PG main contract weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3) [1]. - **External Prices**: FEI and CP were 561 (+3) and 552 (+2) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI month spread decreased slightly to -5, and the CP month spread decreased to -11. The external prices increased, with the FEI month spread +1, the MB month spread unchanged, and the CP month spread -2.5 [1]. - **Internal - External Price Difference**: The internal - external price difference decreased slightly. PG - CP was 75 (-3); PG - FEI was 67.6 (-9.3). FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window was closed [1]. Inventory and Demand - **Inventory**: Port inventory and factory inventory both increased. Incoming shipments decreased, while outward shipments increased slightly, but demand narrowed [1]. - **Demand**: Chemical demand declined. The PDH operating rate was 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both decreased [1]. Profitability - **Production Profits**: The profit of PDH to produce PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. Freight - Freight rates continued to rise. The latest freight from the US Gulf to Japan was 155 (+11), and from the Middle East to the Far East was 82 (+7) [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - **Spot Prices**: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - **External Prices**: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - **Inventory**: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - **Arbitrage and Freight**: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market is weak, with slight declines in Shandong's civil LPG and ether - post carbon four. The market is expected to be mainly volatile as the combustion off - season is nearing its end, but demand remains weak, and supply in the cheapest delivery area (East China) is expected to increase slightly with no substantial improvement in demand [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Data Spot Market - Spot market is weak, with East China's low - end price at 4507 (+0), Shandong at 4500 (-20), and South China at 4590 (+0). Ether - post carbon four is at 4800 (+0). The lowest delivery area has shifted to Shandong [1] Futures Market - The PG main contract fluctuates. The cheapest deliverable is East China's civil LPG at 4501. The basis strengthens to 125 (+55), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 69 (-18). The registered warehouse receipt volume is 13008 lots (-199) [1] International Market - External prices are differentiated. FEI, CP, and MB month spreads fluctuate and strengthen. The internal - external price difference declines. The freight rate drops slightly. The Panama Canal waiting time for VLGCs significantly decreases [1] Industry Data - Port inventory changes little, refinery commercial volume drops by 3.01%, and PDH operating rate is 73.10% (+0.08pct). Next week, Ningbo Jinfa will shut down, while Hebei Haiwei and Wanhua Yantai will resume operations [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spot market is weak, with civil gas and ether - post carbon slightly declining. The lowest delivery location remains in East China. The domestic market rises, and the basis narrows. The supply increases, and the demand is still weak. The overall market is expected to fluctuate as the combustion off - season is approaching its end, but demand lacks substantial improvement [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Spot Market - Civil gas and ether - post carbon prices decline slightly. East China's low - end price is 4507 (+1), Shandong's is 4520 (-10), and South China's changes little at 4590 (-10). Ether - post carbon 4810 (-20). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. Futures Market - The PG main contract fluctuates. The cheapest delivery product is East China civil gas at 4501. The basis strengthens to 125 (+55), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 69 (-18). The warehouse receipt registration volume is 13008 lots (-199) [1]. Supply and Demand - Xintai Petrochemical resumes civil gas supply, increasing by 75 tons per day. Hebei Haiwei's PDH device restarts, and its load is rising. Ningbo Jinfa will stop work next week, while Hebei Haiwei and Wanhua Yantai will resume work [1]. International Market - FEI and CP rise slightly to 554 and 550 dollars per ton respectively. The arrival cost increases. The outer - market prices are differentiated, and the internal - external price difference decreases [1]. Industry Indicators - PDH profit declines, the profit of producing PP is poor, and the profit of producing propylene is good. Port inventory changes little, refinery commodity volume drops by 3.01%, and PDH operating rate is 73.10% (+0.08pct) [1].

Report Overview - The report is a fuel oil morning report released by the energy and chemical team of the research center on September 5, 2025, covering fuel oil data from August 29 to September 4, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst strengthened oscillatingly, the near - month spread strengthened slightly, the basis rebounded, and the EW spread continued to rebound. Affected by the impact of US sanctions on delivery warehouses, FU10 rose sharply and then fell. The low - sulfur cracking weakened, the spread oscillated, and the LU internal - external spread fluctuated around 10 US dollars. The MF0.5 basis began to rebound. Fundamentally, Singapore's residue inventory increased, floating storage decreased, ARA's residue inventory remained flat, floating storage inventory increased significantly, and EIA's residue began to accumulate. The global supply - demand of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Due to logistics reshaping, the demand for high - sulfur marine fuel in Singapore provided support, and the EW spread was still being repaired. The domestic high - sulfur spot was still in excess. A new round of sanctions had a large potential impact on the supply of heavy crude oil in China, providing some support for the valuation of Asian fuel oil. This week, LU maintained an oscillation. The external MF0.5 basis started to rebound, and the opportunity for the low - sulfur to high - sulfur spread to widen in the fourth quarter could be noted [4][10] Data Summary Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O Swap M1 | 389.06 | 377.63 | -0.64 | | Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO Swap M1 | 456.37 | 441.32 | -4.96 | | Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 | -6.14 | -7.05 | 0.41 | | Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil Swap M1 | 654.16 | 665.68 | -7.81 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -197.79 | -224.36 | 2.85 | | LGO - Brent M1 | 22.15 | 24.02 | -0.39 | | Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 | 67.31 | 63.69 | -4.32 | [2] Singapore Fuel Oil Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Singapore 380cst M1 | 401.16 | 388.65 | -8.63 | | Singapore 180cst M1 | 416.16 | 398.86 | -10.92 | | Singapore VLSFO M1 | 485.77 | 468.34 | -16.91 | | Singapore GO M1 | 85.94 | 87.04 | -1.49 | | Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 | -4.48 | -5.32 | 0.53 | | Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 | -150.19 | -175.76 | -5.89 | [2][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FOB 380cst | 399.85 | 387.09 | -9.17 | | FOB VLSFO | 488.05 | 474.28 | -11.56 | | 380 Basis | -1.10 | -1.00 | 0.45 | | High - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 2.4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | | Low - sulfur Internal - external Spread | 8.0 | 9.4 | -0.8 | [3] Domestic FU Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU 01 | 2812 | 2760 | -80 | | FU 05 | 2773 | 2721 | -76 | | FU 09 | 2735 | 2694 | -48 | | FU 01 - 05 | 39 | 39 | -4 | | FU 05 - 09 | 38 | 27 | -28 | | FU 09 - 01 | -77 | -66 | 32 | [3] Domestic LU Data | Type | 2025/08/29 | 2025/09/04 | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LU 01 | 3479 | 3395 | -97 | | LU 05 | 3435 | 3359 | -89 | | LU 09 | 3312 | 3341 | -100 | | LU 01 - 05 | 44 | 36 | -8 | | LU 05 - 09 | 123 | 18 | 11 | | LU 09 - 01 | -167 | -54 | -3 | [4]