商业航天司设立，助力产业资源战略统筹 国防军工 证券研究报告 行业投资策略周报 / 2025.11.25 投资评级:看好(维持) 最近 12 月市场表现 -11% -3% 5% 13% 21% 29% 国防军工 沪深300 分析师 佘炜超 SAC 证书编号：S0160522080002 shewc@ctsec.com 分析师 杨博星 SAC 证书编号：S0160525060005 yangbx@ctsec.com 联系人 任子悦 renzy01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《福建舰正式入列，太空算力开启航天新 叙事》 2025-11-12 2. 《国防军工 2025 年三季报总结》 2025-11-05 3. 《载人任务发射成功，低空基建迎政策红 利期》 2025-11-04 核心观点 请阅读最后一页的重要声明！ ❖ 国防军工行业行情回顾：近一周(2025/11/15-2025/11/22)国防军工行业 指数涨跌幅(-1.72%)在申万一级行业中排名第 4/31；近一月(2025/10/22- 2025/11/22)国防军工行业指数涨跌幅(-3.82%)在申万一级行业中排名第 21/31；近一年(20 ...

Core Insights - The defense and military industry index experienced a decline of -0.47% over the past week, ranking 25th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry classification [3][7] - Over the past month, the index fell by -2.45%, ranking 24th out of 31 [3][10] - In the past year, the index increased by 4.99%, ranking 21st out of 31 [3][14] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 78.66, which is at the 73.66 percentile of the past ten years, indicating a relatively high valuation level [3][14][41] Industry and Stock Performance Review Industry Performance Review - The defense and military industry index has shown a performance of -0.47% in the last week, -2.45% in the last month, and +4.99% in the last year [3][7][14] - The PE-TTM of the aerospace equipment sub-industry is 80.71, while the aerospace equipment sub-industry has a PE-TTM of 304.62, indicating significant valuation differences among sub-sectors [3][14] Stock Performance Review - The top-performing stocks in the defense and military industry over the past week include Triangle Defense (+25.28%), Guorui Technology (+14.59%), and Hangfa Technology (+7.27%) [3][18] - The worst-performing stocks include Jiangxin Technology (-17.20%), Guorui Technology (-4.41%), and Hailanxin (-4.77%) [3][18] Funding Situation - The total transaction volume for the defense and military industry was 257.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of -43.71% and a week-on-week decrease of -28.70% [3][32] - The military ETF fund shares decreased by -1.41% compared to the previous week, but increased by +70.89% year-on-year [3][34] Industry News - The successful launch of the Starcloud-1 satellite equipped with H100 GPU marks a significant step in space data center construction [3][40] - The first electromagnetic catapult aircraft carrier, Fujian, has been officially commissioned, representing a new era in China's naval capabilities [3][42] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to focus on investment themes such as commercial aerospace, military trade, unmanned equipment, military AI, and low-altitude economy [3]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry sector has seen a recovery, with a year-to-date increase of 15.32% as of November 5, 2025, compared to a 17.60% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 26.97% increase in the Shenzhen Component Index [1][20] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the sector achieved a total revenue of 4510.81 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 244.53 billion yuan, up 17.29% year-on-year [1][26] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has led to the execution of backlog orders, driving revenue and profit growth for military enterprises, while the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to release new orders, enhancing industry prosperity [2][42] - The international geopolitical situation is increasingly tense, providing a strategic window for the expansion of China's military trade market, with exports showing significant growth in both quantity and quality [3][43] Group 3 - Key recommended companies include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Chengdu Aircraft Industry Group, Hongdu Aviation Industry Group, Guoke Technology, and Lianchuang Optoelectronics, focusing on sectors such as advanced aircraft manufacturing and missile systems [3][5] - The military budget for 2025 has increased to 17846.65 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.15%, supporting the modernization of military equipment [40][44] Group 4 - The military aircraft sector is expected to benefit from the construction of air and naval forces, with significant advancements in aircraft technology, including the introduction of the J-35A stealth fighter and the development of the sixth-generation fighter [45][46] - Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are becoming a key component of modern warfare, with their roles expanding from reconnaissance to offensive operations, highlighting their importance in future military strategies [58][61]

Core Insights - The report maintains a positive outlook on the defense and military industry, highlighting recent performance and valuation metrics [2][4] - The defense and military industry index has shown a weekly increase of 2.81%, ranking 12th out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry classification [8][12] - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 85.77, which is in the 78.19th percentile of the past decade, indicating a relatively high valuation [14][15] Industry and Stock Performance Review Industry Performance Review - Over the past week (October 18-25, 2025), the defense and military industry index increased by 2.81%, ranking 12th among 31 Shenwan first-level industries [8] - In the past month (September 25 - October 25, 2025), the index saw a minimal change of 0.02%, ranking 17th [9] - Over the past year (October 25, 2024 - October 25, 2025), the index increased by 12.18%, ranking 19th [14] Stock Performance Review - The top-performing stocks in the defense and military sector over the past week include: - Aowei Communication (21.31%) - Feiliwa (17.92%) - Xingwang Yuda (15.29%) [19] - Conversely, the worst-performing stocks include: - Hangfa Control (-1.44%) - Qiyi Er (-1.60%) - Guorui Technology (-1.89%) [19] Funding Situation - The total transaction volume for the defense and military industry was 242.1 billion yuan for the week of October 18-25, 2025, which is a decrease of 43.00% year-on-year and a decrease of 22.10% week-on-week [30] - The military ETF fund shares decreased by 0.42% compared to the previous week but increased by 64.28% year-on-year [32] Important Company Announcements - Companies such as Aerospace Rainbow reported a 162.48% increase in revenue year-on-year for Q3 2025, while Guorui Technology reported a 6.98% decrease in revenue [36] - Notable increases in net profit were reported by companies like Zhenlei Technology (337.49% increase) and Sanjiao Defense (466.32% increase) [36] Industry News - Significant developments include the completion of the first phase of the Zhuque-3 rocket flight test and the launch of over 10,000 Starlink satellites [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the performance of military-themed funds, particularly focusing on the BoShi Military Theme A fund, which has shown impressive returns but raises concerns about its investment strategy and potential style drift due to significant holdings in AI chip stocks like Cambricon [1][3][11]. Fund Performance - As of September 4, 2023, 11 military-themed funds have achieved over 10% returns this year, with three exceeding 24%. BoShi Military Theme A leads with a return of 30.56%, followed closely by Changxin National Defense Military A at 30.42%, and Huaxia Military Security A at 24.68% [1][7]. - BoShi Military Theme A's total assets amount to 2.951 billion yuan, placing it in the mid-range among military-themed funds [9]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager, Zeng Peng, indicated a high allocation to the missile industry and maintained investments in sectors like military AI, drones, satellite industries, and information security [7][11]. - The fund's top ten holdings account for 63.25% of its net value, with over 30% in information technology stocks [7]. Holdings Analysis - Cambricon, an AI chip company, has become the fourth-largest holding in BoShi Military Theme A, with a market value of 200.3 million yuan, representing 6.79% of the fund's net value [4][5]. - In contrast, other top-performing military funds maintain a higher concentration in traditional military stocks, indicating a more focused investment strategy [7]. Institutional Investor Sentiment - Institutional ownership in BoShi Military Theme A is only 11.6%, significantly lower than other military funds, such as Huaxia Military Security A at 63.3% and Guotai Zhongzheng Military ETF at 61% [7][11]. Managerial Changes - The current fund manager, Zeng Peng, has a total return of -13.04% since taking over in June 2022, despite the fund's strong performance this year [9][11]. - The previous manager, Lan Dong, achieved a total return of 107.80% over nearly five years, indicating a stark contrast in performance and investment philosophy [9][11].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiuzhiyang (300516.SZ), focuses on infrared, laser, optical, and star tracking technologies, serving both military and civilian sectors [1] Group 1: Business Focus - The company's main products are integral to the military information system, addressing actual application needs [1] - Currently, there are no dedicated military AI products offered by the company [1] Group 2: Market Awareness - The company will continue to monitor technological developments and market dynamics in relevant fields [1] - The company is evaluating and seeking suitable market opportunities in the context of emerging technologies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is focused on infrared, laser, optical, and star tracking technologies, serving both military and civilian sectors, and is currently part of the military information system [1] Group 1 - The company has products that are components of the military information system, addressing actual application needs [1] - There are currently no dedicated products for military AI, but the company is monitoring technological developments and market dynamics in this area [1] - The company is open to evaluating and seeking suitable market opportunities related to military AI in the future [1]

Group 1 - The defense and military industry index experienced a slight increase of 0.15% over the week from August 9 to August 16, 2025, ranking 21 out of 31 in the Shenwan first-level industry classification [7][12] - Over the past month, the industry index rose by 11.17%, ranking 5 out of 31 [10][14] - In the past year, the index has increased by 46.85%, ranking 11 out of 31 [14][15] Group 2 - The current PE-TTM for the defense and military industry is 90.20, which is at the 77.77 percentile compared to the past ten years, indicating a relatively high valuation level [15][46] - The performance of individual stocks in the defense and military sector showed significant variation, with the top performers being Fenghuo Electronics (38.73%), Feilihua (30.81%), and Aowei Communication (18.03%) [19][29] - Conversely, the worst performers included Qiyi Er (-5.82%), Xice Testing (-6.00%), and Zhongguang Optical (-6.06%) [19][29] Group 3 - Key industry data indicates that the price of sponge titanium is currently 50 RMB/kg, unchanged from the previous week, but up 11.11% from a month ago [30][34] - The LME nickel spot settlement price is currently 14,910 USD/ton, reflecting a 0.17% increase from the previous week but a 7.85% decrease from a year ago [30][34] - The price of domestic acrylonitrile is 8,250 RMB/ton, down 1.20% from the previous week but up 3.13% from a year ago [34][36] Group 4 - Recent industry news includes the successful first tethered ignition test of the Long March 10 rocket and the successful launch of the satellite internet low-orbit 08 group satellites [44][45] - The defense trade market is expected to expand due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, with a focus on military trade, unmanned equipment, commercial aerospace, low-altitude economy, and military AI as key investment themes [46]

Summary of the Conference Call for 莱斯信息 (Lais Information) Company Overview - 莱斯信息 is a leading enterprise under China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC), primarily focused on air traffic control (ATC) and ranked first in civil aviation air traffic management in China, providing services such as aircraft flight monitoring, intelligence, and alerts [2][4][7]. Core Business and Market Position - The company's core businesses include air traffic control, traffic management, and urban governance, with air traffic control and traffic management being the main revenue sources [2][7]. - 莱斯信息 holds a 42% market share in the national air traffic control system market, with 63% of the main equipment market share among 44 users in the China Air Traffic Control Bureau [5][34]. Financial Performance - The Q1 financial report indicated a revenue decline to over 100 million, down from over 1.6 billion in the previous year, resulting in a loss due to unbilled services [9][10]. - Despite the current financial challenges, the company has shown stable revenue growth from 1 billion in 2019 to 1.6 billion in 2024, with significant market demand, particularly in anti-drone technology and airport expansion projects [16][17]. Market Trends and Opportunities - The focus of the market is shifting towards military AI and intelligence gathering, with the company leveraging its data chain capabilities to respond to threats and support civil aircraft scheduling [2][8]. - The low-altitude economy is recognized as a strategic emerging industry, with increasing attention and opportunities for development, including infrastructure for electric vertical takeoff and landing (EVTO) aircraft [35][36]. Challenges and Risks - The company faces risks such as policy uncertainties, intensified industry competition, and underperformance in financial results, particularly during mid-year and annual report periods [45]. - The need for strong computational capabilities and compliance with aviation standards poses challenges in participating in civil aviation projects [24]. Technological and Operational Insights - The airport information management system encompasses various aspects, including aircraft parking, flight route arrangements, air traffic control, and security systems [11]. - The urban traffic management system aims to enhance efficiency through intelligent traffic command systems, including signal control software and smart parking systems [3][14]. Recent Developments and Projects - In June 2025, the company won a bid for a military-civilian collaborative operation project in Hubei, focusing on intelligent scheduling and dynamic perception [42]. - The company is actively involved in pilot projects related to low-altitude economy and military-civilian collaboration, showcasing its significant role in these emerging sectors [42]. Conclusion - 莱斯信息 is positioned as a key player in the air traffic control and urban governance sectors, with a strong market presence and growth potential despite current financial challenges. The shift towards military AI and low-altitude economic opportunities presents a promising outlook for future development [2][8][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong investment opportunity in the defense and military industry, with the sector showing significant growth potential and a leading position in market performance among various industries [2][4]. Core Insights - The defense and military sector has demonstrated resilience and growth, with the industry index rising by 5.93% last week, outperforming major indices [2][14]. - The report highlights the upcoming merger between China Shipbuilding and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, which is expected to create new investment opportunities in marine equipment [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low-altitude economy development, driven by regulatory changes in the U.S. and local initiatives in China, which are expected to enhance the commercial drone market [4][40]. - The military industry is projected to experience a recovery in demand, with a clear long-term growth trajectory supported by national defense modernization goals set for 2035 and 2050 [4][44]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military index has outperformed other sectors, with a PE (TTM) ratio of 89.99, and various sub-sectors showing diverse valuations, such as aerospace equipment at 159.04 and ground armaments at 220.81 [2][23]. - A total of 142 companies in the sector saw 129 report stock price increases, with notable performers including Changcheng Military Industry, which surged by 49.60% [28][29]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on downstream manufacturers such as Hongdu Aviation and AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, as well as companies involved in military technology and underwater equipment [5]. - It also suggests monitoring companies in the missile supply chain and those producing titanium materials for military applications [5]. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the increasing relevance of AI in military applications, highlighting its role in enhancing operational efficiency and decision-making processes [41][42]. - The commercial aerospace sector is expected to see significant activity, with plans to launch 13,000 low-orbit satellites between 2026 and 2030, indicating a robust growth phase for the industry [3][44].