产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年9月30日 朱迪 70015979 | 豆粕 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 现值 前值 狱跌 涨跌幅 | | | | | 现价 江苏豆粕 2940 2940 0 0.00% | | | | | 期价 M2601 2933 2937 | -0.14% | | -4 | | 基差 M2601 7 3 | 133.33% | | 4 | | 现货基差报价 江苏现货墓差 m2601-60 m2601-60 | - | | - | | 晶面进口榨利 阿根廷11船期 255 255 | 0.0% | | 0 | | 盘面进口榨利 巴西11月船期 -14 9 | -255.6% | | -23 | | 仓单 39055 39055 | 0.0% | | 0 | | 菜粕 | | | | | 现值 前值 | 涨跌幅 | | 涨跌 | | 现价 江苏采相 2500 2510 | -0.40% | | -10 | | 期价 RM2601 2416 2405 | 0.46% | | 11 | | 章美 RM2601 ...

Group 1: Overall Price Trends - The overall price of 54 major consumer goods in Mengyin County increased by 0.71% compared to the previous week, with 6 items rising, 44 remaining stable, and 4 declining [1][2] Group 2: Meat, Poultry, and Eggs - Among the 8 monitored meat, poultry, and egg products, prices saw 3 increases, 3 stable, and 2 decreases, with an average increase of 2.04%. Notably, beef and lamb prices rose by 10% to 33 yuan per jin, while egg prices increased by 2.63% to 3.9 yuan per jin [1] - Prices for pork products showed mixed results, with lean pork decreasing by 3.45% to 14 yuan per jin and ribs down by 2.86% to 17 yuan per jin, while other products remained stable [1] Group 3: Vegetables - In the vegetable category, 17 monitored products experienced 2 price increases, 14 stable prices, and 1 decrease, with an average increase of 1.67%. Leek prices rose by 25% to 2.5 yuan per jin, and green onion prices increased by 11.11% to 2 yuan per jin [2] - Most vegetable prices remained stable, with only kidney bean prices declining by 7.69% to 6 yuan per jin [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector is affected by various factors, with most varieties showing a downward trend. The cancellation of Argentina's agricultural product export tax has a significant negative impact on two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) and oil products, increasing global supply pressure and driving prices down. Other products are also under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and harvest expectations [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural Product Sector Overview - Affected by Argentina's cancellation of agricultural product export tax, two - meal and oil products tumbled, and the market will be weak. Hog prices continued to fall due to oversupply [1]. 3.2 Variety Strategy Tracking 3.2.1 Soybean Meal - Affected by Argentina's tax - exemption policy, the U.S. soybean futures price dropped significantly. Domestic soybean meal output increased, inventory reached a new high, and the futures price hit a more than 4 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 2907, and the resistance is 2950 [2][3]. 3.2.2 Soybean Oil - Argentina's tax - exemption policy led to intensified international market competition, triggering large - scale selling and pushing down the futures price. Domestically, supply is abundant, inventory pressure is high, and the futures price hit a nearly 2 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8000, and the resistance is 8100 [4]. 3.2.3 Palm Oil - Affected by Argentina's policy, the Chicago and Dalian bean markets' selling spread to the palm oil market. Domestically, supply and demand are both weak, and the spot price dropped by 400 yuan/ton. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8946, and the resistance is 9132 [6]. 3.2.4 Corn - The new corn harvest expectation is being realized, the spot price is weak, and the futures market is in the process of contract roll - over. The 2511 contract rebounded from a low level, while the 2601 contract continued to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a short order should be held. The support for the 2511 contract is 2138, and the resistance is 2162 [8]. 3.2.5 Eggs - The egg - laying hen inventory is high, and there is still a large amount of cold - storage eggs to be released. After the festival stocking, the consumption support is insufficient, and the egg price is under great pressure to fall. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 3046, and the resistance is 3086 [10]. 3.2.6 Hogs - The supply pressure is high due to increased concentrated slaughter. Consumption demand has a limited increase, and the futures price hit a new low. Technically, it is weak, and short selling is recommended. The support for the 2511 contract is 12600, and the resistance is 12800 [13]. 3.2.7 Cotton - New cotton is expected to have a good harvest, while downstream demand is less than expected. The futures price hit a 3 - month low. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 13500, and the resistance is 13605 [14][16]. 3.2.8 Apples - Affected by rainfall, the bag - removing work of late - maturing Fuji apples is postponed. There is a short - term supply gap, and the price is supported. The market has some short - long liquidation, and the price fluctuates narrowly. Technically, it is strong, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 8253, and the resistance is 8350 [17][19]. 3.2.9 Red Dates - Xinjiang gray dates are entering the sugar - increasing stage, and there is an expected reduction in production. The arrival of goods in the sales area is small, and the price of high - quality goods is strong. The futures price continued to rebound. Technically, short orders should be closed, and a light - position long order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 10700, and the resistance is 10870 [20]. 3.2.10 White Sugar - The good harvest prospects in major sugar - producing countries overseas have pressured the external market, driving down Zhengzhou sugar. Domestically, supply has increased, and demand has entered the off - season, and the price is under pressure. Technically, it is weak, and a light - position short order is recommended. The support for the 2601 contract is 5424, and the resistance is 5472 [22].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Pig Industry**: The decline in pig prices has slowed down due to the support of the state's purchase and storage policies and the pre - holiday stocking for the Double Festivals. However, the supply in September is increasing, and the high weight of pigs restricts the rebound of prices. In the medium - and long - term, the supply before May next year is expected to increase, and the price outlook is not optimistic, except for a possible relative strengthening in the second half of next year [4][54]. - **Egg Industry**: The egg market is under pressure due to sufficient supply, with a near - weak and far - strong pattern in the futures market. In the short term, the support for egg prices is expected to weaken, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the culling of laying hens and environmental protection policies [5][84]. - **Corn Industry**: During the new corn listing period, the futures price faces pressure to rebound. In the short term, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the price may be under pressure due to the concentrated listing. In the long - term, the cost support has decreased, and the price fluctuation center may move down, but attention should be paid to the weather in the production areas [6][106]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pig Industry 3.1.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the national spot price was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.63 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 12.93 yuan/kg, down 0.54 yuan/kg. The futures price of pig 2511 was 12,825 yuan/ton, down 430 yuan/ton from last week. The 11 - contract basis was 105 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton from last week [4][54]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Data Review - Average weekly slaughter weight increased by 0.13 kg to 128.45 kg; the fat - to - standard price difference remained unchanged at 0.39 yuan. The daily average slaughter rate increased by 0.34% to 31.83%, and the daily average slaughter volume increased by 1,438 heads to 131,717 heads. The frozen product inventory rate increased by 0.26% to 17.91%. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was - 9.67 yuan/head, down 30.79 yuan/head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was - 222.56 yuan/head, down 27.75 yuan/head [16]. 3.1.3 Key Data Tracking - The inventory of breeding sows increased slowly from May to November 2024, decreased slightly in December 2024 and January 2025, increased again from May to June 2025, and decreased slightly in July. The production performance has improved, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, especially after September [19]. 3.2 Egg Industry 3.2.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the average price in the main egg - producing areas was 3.66 yuan/jin, up 0.08 yuan/jin from last Friday; the average price in the main egg - selling areas was 3.59 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin. The futures price of the main egg 2511 contract was 3,112 yuan/500 kg, up 72 yuan/500 kg from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 308 yuan/500 kg, up 78 yuan/500 kg from last Friday [5][84]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Data Review - The national weekly utilization rate of hatching eggs for laying hens was 64%, unchanged from last week. The number of culled laying hens was 17.61 million, an increase of 130,000 from last week. The production and circulation inventories increased by 0.03 and 0.07 days respectively to 0.94 and 1.06 days [60]. 3.2.3 Key Data Tracking - The number of newly - opened laying hens in September corresponded to the relatively high replenishment in May 2025. The culling of laying hens was normal, and the overall egg supply was sufficient. In the long - term, the supply pressure is still large, but the growth rate is expected to slow down [84]. 3.3 Corn Industry 3.3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - As of September 19, the closing price of corn at Jinzhou Port, Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last Friday. The futures price of the main corn 2511 contract was 2,168 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last Friday. The basis of the main contract was 132 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton from last Friday [6][106]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Data Review - The corn arrival volume at the four northern ports decreased by 216,000 tons to 105,000 tons. The inventory at the northern and southern ports decreased by 530,000 tons and 55,000 tons respectively to 870,000 tons and 601,000 tons. The opening rate of deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.01% to 48.15% [91]. 3.3.3 Key Data Tracking - The old - crop corn in the market is in limited supply, and new - crop corn has started to be listed in some areas in the Northeast. The supply is relatively sufficient in the short term. In the long - term, the corn planting in the 25/26 season is stable, and the cost support has decreased [106].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillating [1] - Palm Oil: Oscillating [1] - Eggs: Oscillating and slightly bullish [1][2] - Pigs: Oscillating and slightly bearish [2] Core Viewpoints - Corn futures' November contract shows a technical rebound after continuous decline, with the spot market facing increased pressure from new corn listings. Short - term attention is on whether the contract can break through the price low in mid - August, and the medium - term operation follows a bearish idea [1]. - CBOT soybean meal and soybean prices decline due to a stronger dollar and US harvest pressure. Domestic two - meal prices continue to fall, and the strategy is to participate in the short - term [1]. - BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - The egg futures' 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound at the end of the session. The spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - The pig futures' 2511 contract continues to decline. The spot price also drops, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the pig price may remain weak, but it may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - **Corn**: The November contract rebounds technically after a continuous decline. The spot market in the production area expects an increase in new corn listings after mid - September, and the price in the Liaoning production area weakens. In the North China region, the price continues to be weak, and the price in the sales area is temporarily stable. The short - term is to beware of a rebound after a sharp decline, and the medium - term is bearish [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: CBOT soybeans fall due to a stronger dollar and harvest pressure. The export sales of US soybeans meet expectations, and domestic two - meal prices reach a one - and - a - half - month low. The strategy is short - term participation [1]. - **Palm Oil**: BMD palm oil falls following the surrounding market. High - frequency data shows a decrease in exports. The domestic oil market is weak, and the strategy is to bet on increased volatility [1]. - **Eggs**: The 2511 contract oscillates with a slight rebound, and the spot price corrects after a continuous rebound. The supply - side pressure on egg prices may ease in the future, and it is recommended to wait and see or participate with a light position [1][2]. - **Pigs**: The 2511 contract continues to decline, and the spot price drops. The demand is weak, and the short - term pig price may remain weak. It may be supported by increased demand as the temperature drops [2]. Market Information - From September 14th to 17th, Liu Huanxin led a team to investigate grain and material reserve work in Heilongjiang, emphasizing the importance of grain storage and logistics facilities projects [3]. - Zhengshang Institute cancels the designated delivery warehouse qualification of Orient Group Grain and Oil Food Co., Ltd. for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal [3]. - In August, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; soybean oil imports were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 113.9%; rapeseed oil and mustard oil imports were 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.7% [4]. Variety Spreads - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 1 - 5 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][7][11][15] - **Contract Basis**: It includes the basis of corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][14][17][18][24] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with multiple honors and achievements [26]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst of soybeans at Everbright Futures, with rich experience and many honors [26]. - Kong Hailan is a researcher of eggs and pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with relevant experience and honors [26].

长江期货养殖产业周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-9-15 【产业服务总部 | 饲料养殖中心】 研 究 员：叶 天 执业编号:F03089203 投资咨询号:Z0020750 目 录 01 饲料养殖观点汇总 02 品种产业数据分析 01 生猪：供应增长压制，期价反弹沽空 u 期现端：截至9月12日，全国现货价格13.26元/公斤，较上周跌0.46元/公斤；河南猪价13.47元/公斤，较上周价格跌0.51元/公斤；生猪2511收至13255元/吨，较上周下跌70元/吨； 11合约基差215元/吨，较上周跌440元/吨。周度生猪价格下跌，因集团、散户出栏意愿较强，而需求跟进有限，上半周猪价持续走弱，随着周三发布农业农村部召集集团猪企在9月 16日再度召开生猪产能调控大会，低位散户和二育惜售情绪增强，后半周猪价跌幅放缓；盘面在弱现实以及政策和双节备货预期支撑下窄幅调整，主力11贴水缩窄，基差走弱。周 末现货继续偏弱调整。 u 供应端：能繁母猪存栏2024年5-11月缓增，虽然2024年12月开始产能有所去化，但行业预期利润仍存，去化幅度有限，2025年5-6月产能再 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, indicating a potential increase of 5% to 15% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [22]. Core Insights - The company's performance is under pressure, with a year-on-year decline in revenue and net profit, but the seed business shows growth against the trend [7]. - The company achieved a revenue of 4.588 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a decrease of 9.26% year-on-year, and a net profit of 213 million yuan, down 27.71% year-on-year [7]. - The agricultural input business faced challenges, while the seed segment experienced a 4.31% increase in revenue [7]. - The company is expanding its business layout through subsidiaries and maintaining stable summer grain production [7]. Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 722 million yuan, a significant increase of 412.77% year-on-year [7]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 12.03%, down 1.08 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 4.87%, down 1.18 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company's asset-liability ratio was 50.68%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points year-on-year, indicating ongoing financial structure optimization [7]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 755 million yuan, 881 million yuan, and 939 million yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.55 yuan, 0.64 yuan, and 0.68 yuan [9][10]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE) is projected to be 17.61 for 2025, decreasing to 14.16 by 2027, suggesting reasonable valuation within the industry [9][10].

Core Insights - The average price of pork in China's wholesale market is 19.88 yuan per kilogram, showing a decrease of 0.3% compared to the previous day [1] - The average price of eggs is 7.95 yuan per kilogram, reflecting an increase of 0.3% from the previous day [1] Price Trends - Pork price: 19.88 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] - Egg price: 7.95 yuan/kg, up 0.3% [1]

Soybeans fell back into the Wednesday close, with contracts 5 to 6 cents in the red. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was down 5 ¾ cents at $9.47 1/2. Soymeal futures closed Wednesday with losses of $2.80 to $5.30, with Soy Oil futures 36 to 54 points higher. The CME reported another 8 September soybean meal deliveries issued, with 87 for bean oil. Ahead of the weekly Export Sales release on Thursday morning, analysts are looking for between 0.4 and 1.6 MMT of 2025/26 soybean sales in the we ...

Group 1: Egg Market - The egg market is experiencing low prices due to high inventory levels of laying hens, with the average wholesale price at 7.58 yuan per kilogram for the week of August 25-31, 2025, reflecting a 0.3% decrease week-on-week and a 29% decrease year-on-year [1] Group 2: Pork and Vegetable Market - Pork prices showed mixed trends, with the average retail price of pork at 34.9 yuan per kilogram, down 0.57% week-on-week, while other cuts like hind leg meat and large ribs saw slight increases of 0.80% and 0.19% respectively [1] - Among 28 monitored vegetable varieties, 22 saw price increases while 6 experienced declines, leading to an overall retail average of 10.31 yuan per kilogram, up 1.48% week-on-week [1] - Significant price increases were noted for cucumbers (up 13.5% to 8.49 yuan/kg), leafy greens (up 13.25% to 7.18 yuan/kg), and green beans (up 10.82% to 15.57 yuan/kg) [1] Group 3: Seafood Market - The total wholesale trading volume of seafood was 3604.6 tons, with a daily average of 514.94 tons, marking a 2.97% decrease [2] - Among 11 monitored seafood products, 5 saw price increases while 6 experienced declines, with notable price rises for silver carp (up 7.07% to 39.07 yuan/kg) and crucian carp (up 2.95% to 37.75 yuan/kg) [2]