粮油批发价格略有波动，其中面粉上涨0.2%，菜籽油、大米均与前一周基本持平，花生油、豆油分别 下降0.2%和0.1%。 商务大数据显示，12月15日至21日，全国食用农产品市场价格比前一周(环比，下同)上涨0.2%。 6种水果平均批发价格小幅上涨，其中西瓜、葡萄、香蕉分别上涨3.5%、2.6%和1.6%。 禽产品批发价格略有上涨，其中鸡蛋、白条鸡均上涨0.1%。 肉类批发价格稳中有涨，其中猪肉每公斤18.08元，上涨0.4%，牛肉、羊肉均与前一周基本持平。 水产品批发价格略有下降，其中草鱼、鲫鱼、大带鱼分别下降0.4%、0.4%和0.1%。 30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤5.99元，下降0.7%，其中菜花、西兰花、生菜分别下降13.4%、11.6%和 10.2%。 ...

据农业农村部监测，截至12月25日14:00时，全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.44元/公斤，较前一 日上升0.5%；鸡蛋平均价格为7.32元/公斤，较前一日下降1.5%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

近期国内外菜系油脂油料市场利空因素明显增多：一方面，全球油菜籽供应量上升，令国内进口油菜籽 到港成本下降。另一方面，澳大利亚油菜籽已经到港，12月份国内油菜籽进口量将继续增加，导致国内 菜籽油产量存增加预期。在此背景下，预计12月份国内菜籽油价格将继续下跌。 12月4日加拿大统计局发布产量报告显示，2025/26年度加拿大油菜籽产量预计将达到创纪录的2180万 吨，较9月份的预测值上调177万吨，较2024/25年度产量增加256.1万吨，增幅为13.31%，超过市场普遍 预测的2125万吨，甚至有部分分析师预计产量数据仍将继续上调，全球油菜籽供应仍有增加空间。 澳大利亚方面，12月初澳大利亚农业资源经济科学局发布的季度报告显示，2025/26年度澳大利亚油菜 籽产量将达到创纪录的720万吨，较2024/25年度产量增加126万吨，增幅为21.21%。 此外，美国农业部12月份供需报告数据显示，2025/26年度欧盟地区油菜籽产量在2020万吨，较上一年 度相比增加335.9万吨，增幅为19.95%。 综上所述，随着全球主要油菜籽生产国或地区产量增加，2025/26年度全球油菜籽产量预计在9527.3万 吨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in vegetable prices compared to previous years, indicating a trend of inflation in food prices, particularly vegetables, while some meat and fruit prices have decreased or remained stable [1][3]. Price Changes in Vegetables - Vegetable prices have increased dramatically, with items like cabbage now costing around 1-2 yuan per jin, compared to just a few dimes in previous years [1]. - Many vegetables have seen price increases of at least 50% compared to last year [3]. Price Changes in Fruits - Fruit prices have generally decreased, with strawberries available for under 5 yuan, cherries around 10 yuan, and grapes below 3 yuan [2]. - Citrus fruits like oranges are also affordable, with prices around 5 yuan for three jin [2]. Price Changes in Meat and Eggs - Pork prices have reached new lows, with prices for various cuts dropping below 10 yuan per jin [2][3]. - Chicken prices have seen fluctuations, with some cuts now priced above 20 yuan per jin, which is an increase from previous years [3]. - Egg prices have varied throughout the year, with current prices around 2.6 to 2.9 yuan per egg [2]. Regional Price Variations - There are notable regional differences in vegetable prices, with some areas experiencing higher prices than city centers [2]. - In Shenzhen, for example, prices for basic vegetables like lettuce and tomatoes are significantly higher, with lettuce costing around 6 yuan and tomatoes 7 yuan [8]. Supply Chain Factors - The article mentions that continuous rainfall in the autumn has severely impacted vegetable production in northern regions, leading to supply shortages and higher prices [5].

来源：农民日报 据农业农村部监测，2025年第48周（2025年11月24日—30日，下同）"农产品批发价格200指数"为 126.28（以2015年为100），比前一周升0.86个点，同比高4.96个点；"'菜篮子'产品批发价格指数"为 128.52（以2015年为100），比前一周升1.00个点，同比高5.99个点。 猪肉价格继续下跌，鸡蛋价格小幅回升。猪肉批发市场周均价每公斤17.82元，环比跌0.2%，为连续3周 下跌，同比低23.9%；牛肉批发市场周均价每公斤66.28元，环比跌0.3%，同比高9.2%；羊肉批发市场周 均价每公斤62.80元，环比涨0.1%，同比高6.1%；白条鸡批发市场周均价每公斤17.47元，环比涨0.5%， 同比低1.7%。鸡蛋批发市场周均价每公斤7.27元，环比涨0.8%，同比低27.7%。 蔬菜均价季节性小幅上涨。受北方产区寒潮天气影响，重点监测的28种蔬菜周均价每公斤5.76元，环比 涨1.6%，同比高15.7%。分品种看，21种蔬菜价格上涨，7种下跌。其中，菜花、西葫芦、冬瓜、黄瓜 和豆角价格环比分别涨9.7%、7.4%、6.0%、5.9%和5.7%，其余品种价格涨幅 ...

Group 1: Pork Market - The average daily trading volume of pork (including live pigs) increased to 10,797 heads (825.27 tons), a rise of 3.73% compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs in Hangzhou was 14.48 yuan/kg, up by 0.07% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to 16.21 yuan/kg, down by 0.98% [1] - Retail prices for various pork cuts showed mixed results, with pork loin at 34.52 yuan/kg increasing by 0.26%, while pork belly dropped by 6.82% to 34.73 yuan/kg [1] Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables fell to 3,347.86 tons, a decrease of 9.83% from the previous week [2] - The overall average wholesale price of vegetables rose to 5.59 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.27% [2] - Significant price increases were noted for green chili peppers at 7.23 yuan/kg (up 6.17%) and tomatoes at 6.01 yuan/kg (up 4.34%), while cauliflower dropped by 9.02% to 5.75 yuan/kg [2] - Retail prices for monitored vegetables showed an overall increase, with winter melon rising by 21.55% to 5.81 yuan/kg [2] Group 3: Egg and Seafood Market - The average daily trading volume of eggs remained stable at 1,035 tons, with wholesale prices for chicken eggs at 7.23 yuan/kg, down by 2.32% [3] - Retail prices for chicken eggs increased by 1.95% to 11 yuan/kg, while duck eggs rose slightly to 16.54 yuan/kg [3] - The total trading volume of seafood was 3,036.9 tons, with an average daily volume of 433.84 tons, down by 1.47% [3] - The overall wholesale price of seafood decreased to 40.48 yuan/kg, down by 0.37%, while retail prices increased by 4.79% to 66.45 yuan/kg [3]

研究中心农产品团队 2025/11/13 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2025/11/06 | 2050 | 2100 | 2140 | 2250 | -54 | 0 98 | 2700 | 2800 | 186 | 28 | | 2025/11/07 | 2050 | 2110 | 2120 | 2250 | -39 | -10 115 | 2700 | 2800 | 193 | 28 | | 2025/11/10 | 2050 | 2120 | 2140 | 2270 | -44 | 0 142 | 2700 | 2800 | 176 | 8 | | 2025/11/11 | 2070 | 2130 | 2150 | 2300 | -47 | 20 164 | 2700 | 2800 | 16 ...

Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - The three major fats and oils are under overall pressure. The core contradiction lies in the game between the global fat and oil supply tending to be loose and the seasonal weakening of demand, coupled with increased uncertainty in biodiesel policies. Technically, the three major fats and oils continue to explore the bottom and build a base [8][9]. Live Pigs - On the supply side, in the long - term, pig slaughter may generally maintain a slight growth trend until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in November decreased month - on - month, but the daily average remained the same. On the demand side, the secondary fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and the terminal consumption may gradually improve, but the overall increase may be limited. Overall, the spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn - On the supply side, new - crop corn has increased production, and supply is sufficient. Substitute advantages are weakening, and future imports may remain at a low level. On the demand side, feed demand is improving, and deep - processing enterprises' procurement enthusiasm has increased. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal - In the short - term, soybean meal should be treated with caution and a slightly bullish attitude. The risk lies in the collapse of the cost - increase expectation if China only makes a small amount of purchases of US soybeans [147]. Eggs - The spot price may not have a sustained rebound unless there is emotional support. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. Summary by Directory Fats and Oils 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Palm oil continued to decline, with weak demand and ample supply. Indonesia's palm oil production is expected to increase by 10% in 2025, and Malaysia's palm oil inventory in October is estimated to increase [8]. - Soybean oil futures slightly followed the decline and made narrow - range adjustments. High domestic soybean oil inventory and palm oil's weakness suppressed prices, while import costs provided support [9]. - Rapeseed oil fluctuated sideways. The supply is still uncertain, and the inventory is at a relatively high level but is being depleted [9]. 2. Core Points - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of November 6, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China increased by 40 yuan/ton weekly, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 210 yuan/ton weekly [10]. - **Domestic Three - Major Fats and Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 2.21% week - on - week and increased by 16.71% year - on - year [23]. - **Domestic Fat and Oil and Oilseed Supply**: As of the end of the 44th week, the soybean opening rate of domestic major soybean oil mills decreased. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 231.10 million tons, a decrease of 18.13 million tons from last week [26]. - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In October 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.31% month - on - month. India's palm oil imports in October dropped to a five - year low [35]. - **CFTC Positions**: No specific analysis provided in the text. Live Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot prices continued to be weak due to oversupply. The national average live pig slaughter price this week was 12.16 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg. Futures prices rebounded slightly [50]. 2. Fundamental Overview - **Long - Term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory**: The price of binary sows was relatively stable, and the replenishment willingness of farmers was low. As of the end of September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows decreased slightly [53]. - **Medium - Term Supply: Piglet Inventory**: The price of 15 - kg piglets increased slightly this week. As of October, the inventory of piglets in sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [72]. - **Short - Term Supply: Large Pig Inventory, Hogging and Secondary Fattening**: As of October, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises increased. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased, and the proportion of secondary fattening sales increased in late October [73][76]. - **Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Slaughter Weight**: In October 2025, the actual sales of commercial pigs exceeded the plan. The planned sales volume in November decreased month - on - month. The average slaughter weight this week increased slightly [80][81]. - **Import Supply: Pork Imports**: In September, China's pork imports remained the same month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. From January to September, the total imports decreased by 11.24% year - on - year [88]. - **Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased in November. The slaughter enterprise's开工 rate decreased this week [90][92]. 3. Future Outlook - The supply is expected to be stable, and the demand may increase slightly. The spot price may fluctuate, and the futures price may be weak in the medium - to - long - term [97]. Corn 1. Market Review - Spot prices varied by region. Futures prices rose by 2.04% week - on - week [101][102]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress is faster than the same period last year. As of October 31, the inventory in northern ports increased by 14 million tons week - on - week, and the inventory in southern ports increased by 13.5 million tons week - on - week [103][106]. - **Domestic Substitutes**: Wheat prices showed regional differentiation. The price difference between corn and wheat is 297 yuan/ton [108][109]. - **Import Substitute Grains**: In September 2025, China's grain imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Corn imports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year [111]. - **Feed Demand**: In September 2025, the national industrial feed output increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises increased by 3.24% week - on - week [125][129]. - **Deep - Processing Demand**: The starch industry's operating rate increased. The total corn processing volume this week was 59.73 million tons, an increase of 2.33 million tons from last week [132]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The 2025/26 corn production is expected to increase by 0.4% year - on - year, and the consumption is expected to be basically the same as the previous year [136]. 3. Future Outlook and Strategy - The supply is sufficient, and substitute advantages are weakening. The demand is improving, but the inventory - building willingness is not strong. The spot price may fluctuate around the cost price, and the futures price may be affected by various factors [141][142]. Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot prices rose. Futures prices followed the CBOT soybeans and rose. The short - term attitude towards soybean meal should be cautious and slightly bullish [145][147]. 2. Core Points - **Soybean Planting**: The new - season US soybean planting area decreased year - on - year. As of November 1, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 47.1% [148][150]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of September 18, US soybean exports were lower than the same period last year. There is a risk that US soybean exports may fall short of expectations [157]. - **Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing**: As of November 6, the soybean crushing profit was negative. The oil mill's operating rate may decline in the future [163]. - **Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory**: As of October 31, the domestic major oil mills' soybean meal inventory increased by 8.7% week - on - week. The terminal demand is relatively good [170]. - **Basis and Inter - Month Spread**: As of November 6, the 01 contract basis was about 49.43, and the 1 - 5 spread was 248 [175]. - **Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 6, the number of domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts was 42,102 hands, at a relatively high level in the same period of history [181]. Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - The spot market improved. The futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level, and a straddle double - selling strategy is recommended for options [183]. 2. Data Summary - **Inventory and Replenishment**: As of the end of October 2025, the national in - production laying - hen inventory decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The egg - chick replenishment continued to slow down [184]. - **Cost, Income and Breeding Profit**: As of November 6, egg prices increased slightly week - on - week but were significantly lower than the same period last year. The breeding profit was in a loss state and deteriorated compared with last week [191][193].

Group 1: Pork Market - The average daily trading volume of pork (including live pigs) in Hangzhou from October 27 to November 2 was 9,965 heads (761.73 tons), a decrease of 6.87% compared to the previous week [1] - The average price of live pigs in Hangzhou was 14.35 yuan/kg, down 0.49%, while the average wholesale price of pork was 16.56 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.35% [1] - Retail prices for various pork cuts showed mixed trends, with pork loin at 32.59 yuan/kg (down 2.77%), pork hind leg at 28.76 yuan/kg (up 1.05%), and pork belly at 36.77 yuan/kg (down 1.13%) [1] Group 2: Vegetable Market - The average daily trading volume of vegetables in the wholesale market was 3,812.57 tons, a decrease of 11.16% from the previous week [2] - The average wholesale price for 17 vegetable varieties was 5.66 yuan/kg, an increase of 10.33%, with significant price increases for celery (up 31.3%) and cabbage (up 23.7%) [2] - The overall average retail price for 28 monitored vegetable varieties was 11.74 yuan/kg, an increase of 4.17%, with notable increases for eggplant (up 23.82%) and cabbage (up 11.22%) [2] Group 3: Aquatic Products Market - The total wholesale trading volume of aquatic products was 3,187.65 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 455.38 tons, down 1.77% [3] - The overall average price for eight aquatic product varieties remained stable at 40.38 yuan/kg, while the average retail price for 11 monitored aquatic products was 62.32 yuan/kg, down 1.02% [3] - Retail prices for certain aquatic products increased, with grass carp at 29.59 yuan/kg (up 4.3%) and soft-shelled turtle at 78.24 yuan/kg (up 2.84%) [3]

Core Insights - The price trends of major commodities in Jining, Shandong Province, for October show a mixed performance, with grain and oil prices declining slightly, meat and egg prices fluctuating, vegetable prices continuing to rise, and agricultural production material prices remaining stable with some changes. Group 1: Grain and Oil Prices - Grain and oil prices are stable with a slight decline; the average retail prices for wheat and corn are 1.18 yuan/kg and 1.08 yuan/kg, respectively, with corn down 4.42% month-on-month [1] - The average retail prices for japonica rice and premium flour are 2.55 yuan/kg and 1.87 yuan/kg, with japonica rice stable and premium flour up 0.54% [1] - The average retail prices for peanut oil and soybean oil are 159.34 yuan/5L and 60.76 yuan/5L, showing decreases of 0.08% and 0.18% respectively [1] Group 2: Meat and Egg Prices - Prices for pork continue to decline, with average retail prices for five-flower pork and lean pork at 11.36 yuan/kg and 12.92 yuan/kg, down 5.41% and 4.79% respectively [3] - Beef and lamb prices are slightly up, with average retail prices at 32.16 yuan/kg and 35.07 yuan/kg, increasing by 0.06% and decreasing by 1.21% respectively [3] - Chicken and egg prices show mixed trends, with chicken at 8.18 yuan/kg (up 1.24%) and eggs at 3.52 yuan/kg (down 5.38%) [3] Group 3: Vegetable Prices - Vegetable prices continue to rise, with a composite average price of 3.13 yuan/kg, up 4.55% month-on-month; notable increases include tomatoes and eggplants, which rose by 21.88% and 14.80% respectively [4][6] - The price increase is attributed to seasonal, climatic, and market factors, including a supply shortage during the transitional period between summer and autumn crops [6] - Adverse weather conditions, such as continuous rain, have impacted vegetable growth and transportation, further contributing to price increases [6] Group 4: Agricultural Production Materials - The prices of agricultural production materials show minor fluctuations; average retail prices for ammonium bicarbonate and urea are 1.17 yuan/kg and 1.86 yuan/kg, down 2.42% and 3.02% respectively [7] - The prices for diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizers are 4.20 yuan/kg and 3.13 yuan/kg, both showing slight changes [9] - Prices for agricultural films and pesticides remain stable, with average retail prices for greenhouse film and ground film at 13.25 yuan/kg and 12.33 yuan/kg, respectively [9]