【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 9 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带延续三 轨向上，短期震荡偏强信号，上方压力重点关注周线的 20、60 均线附近，支撑 继续关注日线的 40 均线附近。成交量较昨日减 64.3 万手，持仓量较昨日减 1967 手；日内最高 1242，最低 1204，收盘 1228，（较昨结算价）减 20 元/吨，跌幅 1.6%。 2，现货市场：稳中震荡。企业装置大稳小动，检修预期较少，产业供应高 位徘徊。下游采购情绪一般，需求不稳不火，多维持低价按需补货，高价抵触。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差 22 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 8 日，国内纯碱产量 75.36 万吨，环比+5.65 万吨，涨 幅 8.11%。其中，轻碱产量 34.91 万吨，环比+2.30 万吨；重碱产量 40.45 万吨， 环比+3.35 万吨。综合产能利用率 84.39%，上周 79.96%，环比+4.43%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 90.41%，环比+11.20%；联产产能利用率 74 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力高开高走，日内强势。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，上方压力重点关注周线的 60 均线附近，支撑关注日线 的 60/40 均线附近。成交量较昨日增 152.1 万手，持仓量较昨日减 15426 手；日 内最高 1277，最低 1188，收盘 1271，（较昨日结算价）涨 89 元/吨，涨幅 7.53%。 2，现货市场：价格趋稳。个别装置负荷小幅提升，检修预期较少，行业供 应高位徘徊。下游需求表现一般，多按需补货，低价成交为主。 3，基差：华北重碱现货价格 1250，基差-21 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 1 月 1 日，国内纯碱产量 69.71 万吨，环比-1.47 万吨，跌 幅 2.07%。其中，轻碱产量 32.61 万吨，环比-0.02 万吨；重碱产量 37.1 万吨， 环比-1.45 万吨。综合产能利用率 79.96%，上周 81.65%，环比-1.69%。其中氨 碱产能利用率 79.21%，环比-4.11%；联产产能利用率 72.77%，环比-1.08%。15 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 8 ...

周度变化 64 124 124 -8 -5 34 106 40135 26728 3000 -0.2 130 170 230 230 124 2025 -200 -300 s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 42 | -68 | -52 | 17 | -4 | -21 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 12/5 | 12/30 | 12/31 | 1/5 | 1/6 | MIVULLA HOLORIA FAE 日度变化 | 間 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 92 | -118 | -82 | -33 | 6 | 39 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | -18 | -138 | -122 | -63 | -14 | 49 | | | | 01-03 | -25 | -43 | -57 | -43 | -51 | -8 | | | | 02-03 | -14 | -7 | -14 | -5 | -12 | -7 | | | | 03-06 | -41 | - ...

塑料产业日报 2026-01-05 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6449 | -23 1月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6240 | -30 | | | 5月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6449 | -23 9月合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6496 | -13 | | | 成交量(日,手) | 397441 | 72633 持仓量(日,手) | 508923 | 7498 | | | 1-5价差 | -209 | -7 期货前20名持仓:买单量:聚乙烯(日,手) | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | | MIS . L . L . L . L . L . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | 11/26 17 | | 12/22 -રેર | 12/24 -56 | 12/25 -રેર | 12/26 -રેર | 日度变化 0 | 튀 | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 47 | | -dr | -116 | -115 | -115 | 0 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | 7 | | -195 | -196 | -195 | -195 | 0 | | | | 01-03 | -12 | | -30 | -34 | -32 | -33 | -1 | | | | 02-03 | -18 | | -12 | -10 | -7 | -7 | 0 | | | | 03-06 | -45 | | -23 | -28 | -30 | -29 | 7 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 3043 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 84.35 80.74 3.61 开工率 73.844 73.627 0.217 产量 73.54 70.39 3.15 产线条数 219 218 1 重质产量 39.78 38.15 1.63 产量 108.4895 108.5095 -0.02 轻质产量 33.76 32.24 1.52 厂内库存 149.43 153.86 -4.43 库存 5822.7 5944.2 -121.5 重质库存 79.05 81.08 -2.03 库存可用天数 26.3 26.8 -0.5 轻质库存 70.38 72.78 -2.4 库存可用天数 12.39 12.76 -0.37 产销率 106.02 106.93 -0.91 天然气利润 -196.42 -223 26.58 氨碱法毛利 -67.6 -68.5 0.9 石油焦利润 35.64 21.36 14.28 联产法毛利 -49 -98.5 49.5 煤制气利润 6.51 6.52 -0.01 基差 10 -30 40 基差 71 47 24 1-5价差 50 70 -20 1-5价差 97 121 -24 品种套利 ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | WIZUT OFFSTORING CULT . | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 11/11 | 12/5 | 12/9 | 12/10 | 12/11 | 日度变化 | 팀 | | | 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | -30 | 42 | -43 | -40 | -60 | -20 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 100 | 92 | 97 | 100 | 20 | -80 | | | 基差&月差 | 华南基差(佛山库) | 80 | -18 | 17 | 20 | 0 | -20 | | | | 01-03 | -40 | -25 | -35 | -36 | -28 | 8 | | | | 02-03 | -26 | -14 | -20 | -18 | -13 | 5 | | | | 03-06 | -30 | -41 | -42 | -42 | -39 | 3 | | | | BU主力合约(02) | 3050 | 2948 | 294 ...

s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | 指标 | 11/5 | 12/1 | 12/3 | 12/4 | 12/5 | 日度変化 | 팀 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 基差&月差 | 山东基差(+80)(弘润) | -16 | 40 | 78 | 48 | 42 | -6 | | | | 华东基差(镇江库) | 124 | 60 | 88 | 88 | 92 | 4 | | | | 华南县差(佛山库) | 134 | -10 | 18 | -2 | -18 | -16 | | | | 12-01 | -2 | -19 | -25 | -19 | -26 | -7 | | | | 12-03 | -40 | -50 | -52 | -47 | -51 | -4 | | | | 01-02 | -19 | -7 | -9 | -11 | -11 | 0 | | | STET | BU主力合约(01) | 3166 | 2990 | 2952 | 2952 | 2948 | -4 | | | | 成交量 | 238182 | 3100 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Mainly weak operation [1] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the fermentation of news [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and raw material cost data. It also reports on a key project milestone in the polysilicon industry. The trend intensity for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2601 (industrial silicon) closed at 8,920 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan from T - 1, 100 yuan from T - 5, and 220 yuan from T - 22. PS2601 (polysilicon) closed at 57,705 yuan/ton, up 1,280 yuan from T - 1 and 4,390 yuan from T - 5 [1]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +580 yuan/ton, and polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - investment) was - 5430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price**: Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - investment material was 52,350 yuan/ton [1]. - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,349.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) was - 3,596 yuan/ton. Polysilicon enterprise profit was 7.7 yuan/kg [1]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 550,000 tons, enterprise inventory was 180,000 tons, and industry inventory was 730,000 tons. Polysilicon factory inventory was 281,000 tons [1]. - **Raw Material Cost**: Silicon ore prices in Xinjiang and Yunnan were 320 yuan/ton and 290 yuan/ton respectively. Wash - cleaned coal prices in Xinjiang and Ningxia were 1,475 yuan/ton and 1,200 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The 400,000 - volt substation of the Oman United Solar Polysilicon Project, EPC - contracted by China Energy Construction Shanxi Electric Power Engineering Company, was successfully connected to the grid, marking a breakthrough in the project's construction [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3].