Core Viewpoint - On August 7, securities firms issued "buy" ratings for over 20 A-share listed companies, focusing on sectors such as medical services, agriculture, home appliances, semiconductors, construction materials, fertilizers, and specialized equipment [1]. Group 1: Key Stocks Recommended by Securities Firms - WuXi AppTec (603259) received a "buy" rating from Zhongyou Securities, with an upward revision of its annual performance guidance, expecting revenues of 43.29 billion, 49.02 billion, and 55.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a net profit of 14.91 billion, 13.88 billion, and 16.16 billion yuan [2][3]. - Zhong'an Shares (002891) was highlighted by Kaiyuan Securities for significant revenue and profit growth, with a focus on domestic sales [2]. - Haida Group (002311) is noted for its overseas expansion potential, with a report from Guoxin Securities emphasizing its status as a quality asset in the agriculture sector [3][4]. - Junshi Network (688475) was rated "buy" by Yuanyin Galaxy, citing strong growth in its smart home business [2]. - Chipone Technology (688521) showed improved profitability in Q2, with a report from Xinda Securities [2]. - Dongfang Yuhong (002271) is expected to reach a profitability turning point in the second half of the year, according to Zhongyou Securities [2]. - Haiguang Information (688041) received attention for its performance in the semiconductor sector [2]. - Cangge Mining (000408) was noted for stable profitability in potassium chloride and strong performance from its copper mine [2]. - Jereh Group (002353) reported a 37% year-on-year increase in net profit, exceeding expectations [2]. - Zhuozhao Dispensing (873726) received initial coverage for its diverse expansion in dispensing equipment [2]. Group 2: Overall Market Insights - The focus of securities firms on various sectors indicates a strategic interest in industries with growth potential, particularly in medical services and agriculture [1][4]. - The reports suggest that while "buy" or "increase" ratings are provided, they do not guarantee stock price increases, and investors should consider these ratings as references rather than definitive investment advice [4].

Group 1 - In August, 42 brokerage firms released their "golden stocks" lists, recommending a total of 370 times across 286 A-shares, including 187 from the main board, 48 from the ChiNext, 50 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 1 from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - The most popular A-shares include Dongfang Zhiye, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Muyuan Foods, which were recommended 7 times, 5 times, and 5 times respectively [1] - A total of 182 A-shares saw an increase in recommendation counts compared to the previous month, with Wanhua Chemical, Dongfang Zhiye, and Luoyang Molybdenum experiencing the most significant increases of 4 times, 4 times, and 3 times respectively [1] Group 2 - Nineteen industries have been recommended more than 10 times, with the most favored sectors being electronic devices, instruments and components, metals, non-metals and mining, and chemicals, receiving 39, 38, and 34 recommendations respectively [1]

数据来源/Wind 制表/胡雨 申万一级行业名称 券商"金股"数量 电子 18 基础化工 18 机械设备 16 医药生物 15 有色金属 13 计算机 12 电力设备 10 非银金融 10 汽车 10 国防军工 9 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction - **Model Name**: "Kaiyuan JinGong Optimal Stock Portfolio" **Model Construction Idea**: This model is based on the observation that newly recommended stocks ("newly entered stocks") outperform repeatedly recommended stocks ("repeated stocks"). It incorporates the "Surprise in Earnings" (SUE) factor to select stocks with strong earnings surprises, aiming to enhance portfolio returns[23][25]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use newly recommended stocks as the sample universe. 2. Select the top 30 stocks with the highest SUE factor values. 3. Weight the portfolio based on the number of recommendations by brokers. **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates superior performance compared to the overall stock portfolio and benchmark indices, indicating its effectiveness in capturing excess returns[23][25]. Model Backtesting Results - **Kaiyuan JinGong Optimal Stock Portfolio**: - **July Return**: 5.8%[25] - **2025 YTD Return**: 18.0%[25] - **Annualized Return**: 20.8%[25] - **Annualized Volatility**: 25.2%[25] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.82[25] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 24.6%[25] - **Overall Stock Portfolio**: - **July Return**: 7.7%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 18.5%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 12.2%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.4%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.52[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 42.6%[21] - **Benchmark Indices**: - **CSI 300**: - **July Return**: 3.5%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 3.6%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 2.4%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 21.2%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.11[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 40.6%[21] - **CSI 500**: - **July Return**: 5.3%[21] - **2025 YTD Return**: 8.7%[21] - **Annualized Return**: 0.1%[21] - **Annualized Volatility**: 23.7%[21] - **Sharpe Ratio (Return-to-Volatility)**: 0.01[21] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 37.5%[21] Quantitative Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Surprise in Earnings (SUE) Factor **Factor Construction Idea**: The SUE factor measures the degree of earnings surprise, which is a key indicator of stock performance. Stocks with higher earnings surprises are expected to outperform[23]. **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the earnings surprise for each stock based on the difference between actual and expected earnings. 2. Rank stocks by their SUE values. 3. Select the top stocks with the highest SUE values for portfolio inclusion[23]. **Factor Evaluation**: The SUE factor demonstrates strong stock selection ability, particularly within the newly recommended stock universe, contributing to the superior performance of the optimal stock portfolio[23]. Factor Backtesting Results - **SUE Factor**: - Integrated into the "Kaiyuan JinGong Optimal Stock Portfolio," contributing to its superior performance metrics as detailed above[23][25].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Analyst 50 Portfolio **Construction Idea**: The portfolio is designed to outperform the CSI 500 index by leveraging the superior performance of newly recommended stocks and the effectiveness of the earnings surprise factor in stock selection[25][27][34] **Construction Process**: 1. Select newly recommended stocks from the monthly broker top 10 stock pool based on whether they are repeated from the previous month[25] 2. Calculate the earnings surprise factor (SUE) for each stock in the newly recommended stock pool, and select the top 50 stocks based on SUE values. Initial weights are assigned based on the number of broker recommendations[25] 3. Adjust the portfolio's industry weights proportionally to match the latest CSI 500 index industry weight distribution. Within each industry, stock weights are adjusted proportionally to finalize the Analyst 50 Portfolio[25] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The portfolio dynamically captures market trends and high-volatility stocks, demonstrating strong adaptability and aggressiveness[34] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Earnings Surprise (SUE) **Construction Idea**: Measure the degree to which actual financial report values exceed analyst forecast values to identify stocks with potential for outperformance[22][23] **Construction Process**: 1. Use quarterly forecast and actual values to calculate the SUE factor[26] 2. Integrate earnings previews, quick reports, and regular reports, and forward-fill factor values during financial report gaps[23] **Formula**: $$ SUE = \frac{R_t - E_t}{\sigma(R_t - E_t)} $$ - \( R_t \): Actual financial report value - \( E_t \): Analyst forecast value - \( \sigma(R_t - E_t) \): Standard deviation of the difference between actual and forecast values[22] **Evaluation**: The factor shows strong differentiation in stock performance, especially in newly recommended stocks, where the information absorption is slower compared to repeated stocks[23] Model Backtesting Results - **Analyst 50 Portfolio**: - Annualized return: 14.9% - Annualized excess return over CSI 500: 15.6% - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58[27][29][20] Factor Backtesting Results - **Earnings Surprise (SUE)**: - Newly recommended stocks: - Annualized return: 14.1% - Annualized volatility: 24.2% - Sharpe ratio: 0.58 - Maximum drawdown: 38.5% - Repeated stocks: - Annualized return: 8.8% - Annualized volatility: 23.3% - Sharpe ratio: 0.38 - Maximum drawdown: 45.0%[20][19][23]

Group 1 - The recent surge in Hong Kong IPOs has led domestic securities firms to accelerate their efforts to serve cross-border financing needs, marking a shift from a previously foreign-dominated landscape [1] - Over 200 A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have made it to the July "golden stock" list released by brokers, with notable mentions including Kaiying Network and Zijin Mining [1] - Analysts predict that the A-share market will continue to experience fluctuations in July, with a focus on high-growth sectors, while the Hong Kong market may also show similar trends [1] Group 2 - On July 1, the A-share market saw active trading in sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and banking, with several stocks reaching historical highs [2] - The upcoming mid-year report season is expected to drive upward momentum in the A-share market, with potential performance improvements in technology, consumer, and midstream manufacturing sectors [2] Group 3 - The National Healthcare Security Administration and the National Health Commission have introduced measures to support the high-quality development of innovative drugs, including 16 specific initiatives [3] - These measures aim to enhance support for innovative drug research and development, clinical application, and multi-payment capabilities [3] Group 4 - Wuhan Heyuan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has successfully passed the IPO review by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, marking the first approval under the newly restarted fifth set of standards for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [4] - This approval reflects a policy direction that emphasizes support for high-quality technology enterprises and enhances the adaptability of the listing system [4] Group 5 - As of June 30, a total of 150 companies were newly accepted for IPOs across major exchanges, marking a peak in acceptance rates for the year [5] - The increase in accepted IPOs is attributed to periodic financial data updates and the continuous improvement of the registration system [5] Group 6 - The first half of the year saw a significant increase in the performance of listed securities firms, with expectations of double-digit growth year-on-year [6] - The introduction of new regulations for distributed photovoltaic power generation has led to a surge in installations, with nearly 200 GW added in the first five months [6] Group 7 - Since the introduction of the "Guidelines for Market Value Management," 644 listed companies have announced market value management systems or valuation enhancement plans, with a significant portion being state-owned enterprises [7] - Public funds have seen a substantial increase in dividend distributions, with a total of 1,275.11 billion yuan distributed in the first half of the year, reflecting a 37.53% year-on-year growth [7] Group 8 - The overall performance of the stock market in the first half of the year has improved, leading to increased investment returns for equity funds, which has facilitated higher dividend payouts [8] - Regulatory bodies are encouraging funds to enhance dividend frequency and amounts to improve investor satisfaction [8] Group 9 - The A-share market has shown a trend of upward fluctuations, with a total market capitalization reaching 90.66 trillion yuan by June 30 [9] - Experts anticipate that policies aimed at technological innovation and improving living standards will inject new momentum into economic growth in the second half of the year [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the performance and recommendations of stocks by securities firms, with a focus on the "golden stocks" for July and the significant gains observed in June [1][2][3][4][5] - In June, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3400 points, with 167 out of 272 recommended stocks rising, and 66 stocks gaining over 10%, while 27 stocks saw gains exceeding 20% [2][3] - The top-performing stock in June was Giant Network, which rose by 63.09%, followed by Shenghong Technology with a 55.39% increase [2][3] Group 2 - The financial sector showed strong performance, with 19 recommended stocks, of which only one experienced a slight decline, indicating a concentration in this industry [3][4] - The "golden stock combination index" reflects the research capabilities of securities firms, with 27 indices rising in June; the top performer was the Guoyuan Securities Golden Stock Index, which increased by 19.6% [3] - For July, 232 stocks were recommended, with 45 stocks receiving endorsements from multiple firms, indicating a shift towards growth styles in stock selection [4][5] Group 3 - Analysts predict a bullish trend for the A-share market in July, with expectations of index breakthroughs and a focus on technology and non-bank sectors [5] - The brokerage sector is particularly favored, with analysts noting that the index has recovered nearly 40% of its decline since November of the previous year, suggesting further upward potential [5]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Committee emphasized the need for a unified national market and high-quality development of the marine economy, highlighting the importance of coordination and cooperation to achieve these goals [1] - The meeting underscored that advancing Chinese-style modernization requires a focus on the marine economy, aiming to establish a path with Chinese characteristics [1] Group 2 - In June, new car manufacturers reported significant sales figures, with Hongmeng Zhixing delivering 52,747 vehicles, marking a historical high and securing the top position among new forces in car manufacturing [2] - Leap Motor also achieved a record high in new car deliveries for June, reaching 48,006 units, while Li Auto and Xpeng Motors followed closely [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China and six other departments released guidelines to enhance financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, emphasizing the importance of increasing residents' financial capacity to stimulate consumption [3] - Analysts noted that rising stock markets can enhance consumer willingness and ability to spend, as increased asset values create a psychological effect of wealth growth [3] Group 4 - China plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long special bonds by 2025, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, accounting for 42.69% of the annual quota [4] - The issuance plan for the second half of the year has been adjusted to be more intensive, with the first issuance scheduled for July 14 [4] Group 5 - In July, several Hong Kong stocks were favored by brokerages, with companies like Pop Mart, Hong Kong Exchanges, and others receiving multiple recommendations from different firms [5] - The technology and brokerage sectors are highlighted as areas of focus for institutional investors, especially with the upcoming mid-year report season [5] Group 6 - The banking sector has seen a continuous rise, with 36 listed banks in A-shares increasing by over 1%, and Suzhou Bank and Xiamen Bank showing notable gains [8] - Analysts attribute this upward trend to recent shareholder meetings focusing on dividends and strategic transformations, laying a foundation for future stock price increases [8] Group 7 - The international copper price surged, reaching a peak of $9,984, driven by market confidence stemming from the "Big and Beautiful" bill in the U.S. and inflation expectations [15] - Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for LME copper prices for the second half of 2025 from $9,140 per ton to $9,890 per ton, predicting a peak of $10,050 in August [15] Group 8 - BYD reported a 33.04% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales for the first half of the year, totaling approximately 2.146 million units [21] - New and existing companies are expected to see significant profit growth, with projections indicating increases of 50%-100% for several firms in the upcoming half-year [21]

- The quant report highlights that the factors "single-quarter revenue growth," "SUR," and "analyst net upgrade" performed well in the past month, while "EPTTM," "volatility," and "stripped limit-up momentum" performed poorly[3][28] - For the year to date, the factors "total market capitalization," "SUE," and "SUR" have shown strong performance, whereas "expected dividend yield," "volatility," and "EPTTM" have underperformed[3][28] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 5.34% for the month (20250603-20250630) and an excess return of 1.00% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - Year-to-date (20250102-20250630), the "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" achieved an absolute return of 10.59% and an excess return of 2.73% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][43] - The "brokerage gold stock performance enhancement portfolio" ranked in the 28.16th percentile among active equity funds for the year to date (977/3469)[5][43] - The portfolio's annualized return from 2018 to 2025 was 19.34%, with an annualized excess return of 14.38% relative to the mixed equity fund index[45] - The portfolio consistently ranked in the top 30% of active equity funds each year from 2018 to 2025[45]

2025 年 07 月 01 日 金融工程研究团队 魏建榕（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790519120001 张 翔（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520110001 傅开波（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090003 高 鹏（分析师） 证书编号：S0790520090002 苏俊豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522020001 胡亮勇（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522030001 王志豪（分析师） 证书编号：S0790522070003 券商金股解析月报（2025 年 7 月） 魏建榕（分析师） 高鹏（分析师） weijianrong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790519120001 盛少成（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060003 苏 良（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060004 何申昊（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524070009 蒋 韬（研究员） 证书编号：S0790123070037 相关研究报告 ——金融工程定期 《开源量化评论（23）-"金股+"组 合的量化方案》-2021.4.26 《开源量化评论（32）-券商金股的内 部收益结构》-2021.8. ...