2026 年 3 月 3 日 原木：预期现实博弈，小幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 价格指标 项 目 2026/3/2 2026/2/27 | 2026/2/26 | 2026/2/25 | 2026/2/24 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2605合约（收盘价） 800 798.5 | 793.5 | 796 | 789 | 0.2% | 1.4% | | 2605合约（成交量） 3742 3161 | 2378 | 5126 | 2407 | 18.4% | 55% | | 2605合约（持仓量） 8416 7605 | 7298 | 7108 | 5631 | 10.7% | 49% | | 2607合约（收盘价） 802.5 800.5 | 799 | 801.5 | 794.5 | 0.2% | 1% | | 盘面 2607合约（成交量） 80 134 | 107 | 168 | 56 | -40.3% | 43% | | 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Port arrivals of logs are low, and spot prices are rising steadily [1] - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4] - The trend strength of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Contracts**: For the 2603 contract, the closing price decreased by 2.2% daily and 1.4% weekly, the trading volume increased by 36.3% daily and decreased by 18% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 21.7% daily and 23% weekly. For the 2605 contract, the closing price decreased by 1.2% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 17.4% daily and 8% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 9.4% daily and increased by 3% weekly. For the 2607 contract, the closing price decreased by 0.7% daily and 1% weekly, the trading volume increased by 172.0% daily and 80% weekly, and the open interest decreased by 1.9% daily and increased by 5% weekly [1] - **Spot - Futures Spreads**: The spreads between spot and 2603, spot and 2605 decreased by 34.6% and 20.0% daily respectively, and 24% and 17% weekly respectively. The spreads between 2603 - 2605, 2603 - 2607, and 2605 - 2607 also showed certain changes [1] - **Spot Market**: Most spot prices of different types of logs and wood squares remained stable, with only the price of 5.9 - meter 20 + radiata pine in the Shandong market increasing by 1.4% daily and weekly, and the price of 3 - meter and 4 - meter radiata pine wood squares in Chongqing increasing by 0.7% weekly [1] Macro and Industry News - China's January RatingDog Manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations and up from the previous value of 50.1 [3] - Multiple real estate companies are no longer required by regulatory authorities to report "Three Red Lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators such as asset - liability ratio to the special team in the city where their headquarters are located regularly [3][4]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 3 日 原木：小幅探涨 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 原木基本面数据 | 项 目 | 价格指标 | 2026/1/28 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 2026/1/27 | | 2026/2/2 2026/1/30 | | 2026/1/29 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2603合约（收盘价） 795 798 785 775.5 775.5 | | | -0.4% | | | 2.5% | | | | | 2603合约（成交量） 11027 15438 9866 2751 3684 | | | -28.6% | | | 199% | | | | | 2603合约（持仓量） 9071 10123 10248 10129 10340 | | | -10.4% | | | -12% | | | | | 2605合约（收盘价） 796 796.5 789.5 784.5 786.5 | | | -0.1% | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【原木周报（LG)】 苏鲁现货价格分化，原木未脱离震荡区间 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2026-01-19 杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 王新博 从业资格证号：F03134647 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苏鲁现货价格分化，原木未脱离震荡区间 | G国贸期货 | | --- | | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 据木联调研，本周(2026/1/3-1/9)，新西兰港口原木离港发运共计9船35万方，环比减少1船1万方。其中，新西兰直发中国8船30万方，环 比增加2船8万方。。 | | | 需求 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，1月5日-1月11日，中国7省13港针叶原木日均出库量为5.75万方，较上周增加1.77%。 | | | 库存 | 中性 | 据木联数据统计，截至1月9日，国内针叶原木总库存为269万方，较上周增加 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Log spot prices have shown signs of bottoming out and rebounding recently, and the further downside space for futures prices is expected to be limited. However, the January FOB quotes still show a slight decline, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Spot Price - In Shandong, for radiation pine, 3.9 - meter medium A is 740 yuan, 5.9 - meter medium A is 760 yuan, 3.9 - meter small A is 680 yuan, and 5.9 - meter small A is 710 yuan. In Jiangsu, 4 - meter medium A is 730 yuan, 6 - meter medium A is 780 yuan, 4 - meter small A is 670 yuan, and 6 - meter small A is 730 yuan [5] FOB Quote - The FOB quote for 4 - meter medium A radiation pine is in the range of 109 - 112 dollars/JAS m³ in January, compared to 109 - 113 dollars/JAS m³ in December, with a change of - J [5] Futures Price - The price of LG2605 contract is 790 yuan/m³, up from 789 yuan/m³ in the previous period. The price of LG2603 contract is 780.5 yuan/m³, up from 779.5 yuan/m³ in the previous period [5] Downstream Wood Square Price - In Shandong, the price of 4000*50*100 wood square is 1220 yuan, unchanged from the previous period. In Jiangsu, it is 1240 yuan, also unchanged [5] Supply - In December 2025, New Zealand's import volume was 178.8 (in 10,000 m³), North American timber was 9.3 (in 10,000 m³), and European timber was 15.5 (in 10,000 m³). The ship - arrival volume in the week of December 22 - 28 was 31 (in 10,000 JAS m³), down from 52 (in 10,000 JAS m³) in the week of December 15 - 21 [5] Inventory - On January 8, the total inventory was 269 (in 10,000 m³), with Shandong inventory at 229 (in 10,000 m³) and Jiangsu inventory at 48.4 (in 10,000 m³) [5] Demand - On January 8, the daily average outbound volume was 5.75 (in 10,000 m³), with Shandong's outbound volume at 2.79 (in 10,000 m³) and Jiangsu's at 2.35 (in 10,000 m³) [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipments from ports remained unchanged week - on - week, and the total inventory of the four major ports did not change either. The spot prices of mainstream lumber remained stable, and the market presented a pattern of weak supply and demand. The BDI decreased by 7.78% week - on - week, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the New Zealand dollar declined [4][6][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of December 21, there were 33 ships departing from New Zealand in December, with 26 bound for mainland China and 7 for Taiwan, China, and South Korea for lightering. Among them, about 15 ships were expected to arrive in December, and 18 in January. The expected arrival volume in December was 1.58 million cubic meters [5][8]. 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week ending December 26, the daily average shipment of Lanshan Port was 21,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 14,600 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2668 million cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Taicang Port about 385,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), Xinminzhou about 126,500 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port about 134,300 cubic meters (week - on - week change: 0 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 1.9131 million cubic meters, with a week - on - week de - stocking of 0 cubic meters [6][12]. 3.3 Market Trends - As of December 26, the closing price of the main contract LG2603 was 776.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 0.4% increase from the previous week. The market was in a high - level volatile state this week, and the fundamental situation maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 10.5 yuan per cubic meter, the 03 - 07 monthly spread was - 17.5 yuan per cubic meter, and the 05 - 07 monthly spread was - 7 yuan per cubic meter [18]. 3.4 Other - As of the week ending December 28, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1,877.00 points, a decrease of 146 points (- 7.78%) from the previous week. Its relevant sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 719 points, a - 3.62% change from the previous week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1,656.32 points, a 6.7% increase from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index weakened, the US dollar to Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.007, a 0.48% decrease week - on - week, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 1.3% to 1.709 [6][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The log market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The spot prices of mainstream log varieties have remained stable, the futures market has been weakly volatile, and port inventories have decreased [4][19] Summary by Directory Overview - The prices of mainstream delivery products such as 3.9 - meter 30+ radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu markets remained unchanged from last week, with a price difference of 10 yuan/m³ between the two regions. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4] Supply - As of December 7, there were 8 ships departing from New Zealand in December, 7 of which were bound for the Chinese mainland and 1 for Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced loads. It is expected that about 8 ships will arrive in December and 0 in January. The expected arrival volume in November is 1.28 million cubic meters [5][8] Demand and Inventory - As of the week of December 5, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.38 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 1.36 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.45 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.24 million cubic meters). In terms of port inventories, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.3528 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 million cubic meters), Taicang Port's inventory was about 0.4115 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0409 million cubic meters), Xinminzhou's inventory was about 0.2247 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0494 million cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's inventory was about 0.1237 million cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 0.0365 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.1127 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.1428 million cubic meters from the previous week [6][13] Market Trend - As of December 12, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 749 yuan/m³, a decrease of 1.7% from last week. The futures market continued to be weakly volatile this week, and the fundamentals maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the monthly spread tended to narrow. The 01 - 03 monthly spread was - 16 yuan/m³, the 01 - 05 monthly spread was - 28.5 yuan/m³, and the 03 - 05 monthly spread was - 12.5 yuan/m³ [19] Other - As of the week of December 14, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2294.00 points, a decrease of 433 points (-15.9%) from last week. Its related sub - index, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI), was 814 points, a decrease of 3.2% from last week. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1506.46 points, an increase of 7.8% from last week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.059, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.6% to 1.722 [6][52]

原木数据纵览 | 类别 | 指标 | 更新日期 | 数值 | 环差 | 同比 | 频率 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 辐射松进口量 | 2025-10-31 | 148 | 3 | 15.6% | 月 | 万m³ | | 库存 | 港口库存（中国） | 2025-11-28 | 297 | -6 | 10.0% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 港口库存（山东） | 2025-11-28 | 1986000 | -79000 | 29.8% | 周 | m³ | | | 港口库存（江苏） | 2025-11-28 | 850900 | 19123 | 0.4% | 周 | m³ | | 需求 | 原木港口日均出库量 | 2025-11-28 | 6.13 | -0.31 | 16.3% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 日均出库量（山东） | 2025-11-28 | 3.04 | -0.55 | 29.4% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 日均出库量（江苏） | 2025-11-28 | 2.62 | 0.26 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot prices of mainstream radiata pine products in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable this week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply [4]. - As of October 26, there were 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, with 32 bound for mainland China. It is estimated that 1770,000 cubic meters of logs will arrive in October [5][8]. - As of the week of October 24, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port and Taicang Port increased. The total inventory of the four major ports decreased by 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. - As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) decreased by 0.4%, the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) decreased by 2.6%, and the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) increased by 10.5%. The US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate down 0.1% week - on - week and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% [6][51]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply - **New Zealand Log Shipping Schedule Data**: As of October 26, 40 ships departed from New Zealand in October, 32 to mainland China and 8 to Taiwan, China and South Korea for lightering. About 20 ships are expected to arrive in October and 20 in November. The estimated arrival volume in October is 1.77 million cubic meters [5][8]. - **Detailed Ship Information**: The report provides detailed information on 40 ships departing from New Zealand in October, including departure time, load capacity, current port, expected destination port, and expected arrival time [10]. Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Main Port Inventory and Daily Shipment Volume**: As of the week of October 24, Lanshan Port's daily average shipment volume was 23,900 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 2,100 cubic meters), and Taicang Port's was 12,200 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 3,100 cubic meters). In terms of port inventory, Lanshan Port's inventory was about 1.2438 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 10,000 cubic meters), Taicang Port's was about 351,900 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 40,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou Port's was about 350,800 cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 22,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port's was about 143,000 cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 24,500 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.0895 million cubic meters, a decrease of 29,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week [14]. Market Trends - **Futures Contract Price Trends**: As of October 31, the closing price of the main contract LG2511 was 787.5 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 5.0% from the previous week. The backwardation spread widened significantly this week [19]. - **Spot Price and Spread**: The spot prices of various specifications of radiata pine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. The report also presents the regional spreads between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications, as well as the spreads between different tree species and specifications [22][23]. Other - **Other Price Influencing Factors**: As of the week of November 2, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 1983.00 points, a decrease of 8 points (- 0.4%) from the previous week; the Handysize Shipping Index (BHSI) was 855 points, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous week; the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) was 1550.70 points, an increase of 10.5% from the previous week. In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index recovered moderately this week, with the US dollar to RMB exchange rate at 7.118, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1%, and the US dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate up 0.4% to 1.747 [6][51].

Group 1: Report Overview - On October 27, the main contract of log futures decreased with reduced positions, with an intraday decline of over 5% and hitting 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 6-meter medium H at Lanshan Port remained unchanged at 800 - 810 yuan/cubic meter, and the foreign quotation was 120 US dollars/JAS with no transactions [2]. Group 2: Reasons for Today's Fluctuation - Information aspect: China imposed counter - measures on the US 301 ship fees on October 14, increasing the whole - ship cost of logs by about 10%, causing the log futures to rise. After the China - US economic and trade consultations on October 25 - 26, the market expected the cancellation of the special port fees, leading to long - position reduction and price decline [3]. - Fundamental aspect: The fundamentals are gradually weakening. Port arrivals are concentrated recently, and traders' active inventory reduction pressures the spot market. The sales of laminated timber have declined, and the price of export - grade timber is under pressure. Also, the foreign quotation of 120 US dollars/UAS is difficult to conclude deals and is expected to be readjusted [3]. Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - The fundamental situation of the log market remains weak, with no clear positive drivers. The peak - season expectation has weakened, port inventory will gradually increase, and the demand is weak with low trader purchasing willingness. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, logs may experience seasonal inventory accumulation again [4]. Group 4: Investment Suggestion - The short - term market sentiment is bearish, and the market will return to a weak operation rhythm. Speculative investors are advised to wait and see, and pay attention to the results of subsequent China - US negotiations on port fees [4].