本文转自【新华网】； 新华社柏林1月11日电 题：工业引擎失速 德国经济挑战凸显 新华社记者李函林 长期被视为欧洲经济稳定支柱的德国正面临日益凸显的挑战：德国企业作为资本与技术的核心载体，在 全球市场仍保持活跃，但其赖以生根的本土，却因产能外移、投资收缩和就业流失而逐步"失血"。 "本土承压 海外支撑" 成本高企 制度约束 德国工业联合会主席彼得·莱宾格近日对德国工业引擎失速表达担忧。德国工业联合会上月初发布的报 告数据显示，2025年德国工业产出连续四年下滑。莱宾格就此指出，这一趋势已超出周期性波动范围， 反映工业发展陷入结构性困境，并警示如果企业未能采取有效调整措施，下行趋势可能进一步加速。 安永分析指出，德国本土长期亏损的业务如果无法与全球盈利实现抵扣，企业势必重新评估价值链分 布，部分服务、研发活动可能转移至其他国家。 此外，长期高企的能源价格和劳动力成本正进一步侵蚀德国企业竞争力。高成本环境推高了德企在本土 开展长期技术布局的综合成本，基础材料、汽车及零部件、机械制造等德国传统支柱工业品类在国际市 场中逐渐处于不利地位。德国汽车零部件巨头博世集团董事会主席斯特凡·哈通近日表示，公司预计 2025年利 ...

DAX 40指数是德国主要股指，被普遍视为德国经济实力和产业结构的"晴雨表"。安永近期发布的报告 显示，23家DAX指数企业的德国子公司连续一年以上处于亏损状态，其中9家连续四年在本土录得亏 损。但与此同时，这些企业在海外市场仍保持稳健盈利，部分企业的全球业绩甚至在持续改善。"本土 承压、海外支撑"的经营模式，正逐渐成为德国大型企业的一个显著特征。 企业层面的数据同样释放出压力信号。德国哈雷经济研究所报告显示，2025年德国企业申请破产数量升 至20年来最高值，达到17604起，影响波及约17万个就业岗位。 安永另一份分析报告显示，2025年前9个月德国收入最高的100家公司税前利润下降约15%，一些关键行 业的整体利润降幅较为明显。 新华社柏林1月11日电 题：工业引擎失速 德国经济挑战凸显 新华社记者李函林 长期被视为欧洲经济稳定支柱的德国正面临日益凸显的挑战：德国企业作为资本与技术的核心载体，在 全球市场仍保持活跃，但其赖以生根的本土，却因产能外移、投资收缩和就业流失而逐步"失血"。 "本土承压 海外支撑" 德国工业联合会主席彼得·莱宾格近日对德国工业引擎失速表达担忧。德国工业联合会上月初发布的报 告数 ...

长期被视为欧洲经济稳定支柱的德国正面临日益凸显的挑战：德国企业作为资本与技术的核心载体，在 全球市场仍保持活跃，但其赖以生根的本土，却因产能外移、投资收缩和就业流失而逐步"失血"。 成本高企制度约束 德国工业联合会主席彼得·莱宾格近日对德国工业引擎失速表达担忧。德国工业联合会上月初发布的报 告数据显示，2025年德国工业产出连续四年下滑。莱宾格就此指出，这一趋势已超出周期性波动范围， 反映工业发展陷入结构性困境，并警示如果企业未能采取有效调整措施，下行趋势可能进一步加速。 安永分析指出，德国本土长期亏损的业务如果无法与全球盈利实现抵扣，企业势必重新评估价值链分 布，部分服务、研发活动可能转移至其他国家。 此外，长期高企的能源价格和劳动力成本正进一步侵蚀德国企业竞争力。高成本环境推高了德企在本土 开展长期技术布局的综合成本，基础材料、汽车及零部件、机械制造等德国传统支柱工业品类在国际市 场中逐渐处于不利地位。德国汽车零部件巨头博世集团董事会主席斯特凡·哈通近日表示，公司预计 2025年利润将明显低于预期，且短期内难以恢复至既定盈利水平，为应对持续压力，博世计划裁减约 2.2万个岗位。 前景谨慎挑战加剧 "本土承 ...

新华社柏林1月11日电 题：工业引擎失速 德国经济挑战凸显 新华社记者李函林 长期被视为欧洲经济稳定支柱的德国正面临日益凸显的挑战：德国企业作为资本与技术的核心载体，在 全球市场仍保持活跃，但其赖以生根的本土，却因产能外移、投资收缩和就业流失而逐步"失血"。 "本土承压 海外支撑" DAX 40指数是德国主要股指，被普遍视为德国经济实力和产业结构的"晴雨表"。安永近期发布的报告 显示，23家DAX指数企业的德国子公司连续一年以上处于亏损状态，其中9家连续四年在本土录得亏 损。但与此同时，这些企业在海外市场仍保持稳健盈利，部分企业的全球业绩甚至在持续改善。"本土 承压、海外支撑"的经营模式，正逐渐成为德国大型企业的一个显著特征。 企业层面的数据同样释放出压力信号。德国哈雷经济研究所报告显示，2025年德国企业申请破产数量升 至20年来最高值，达到17604起，影响波及约17万个就业岗位。 安永另一份分析报告显示，2025年前9个月德国收入最高的100家公司税前利润下降约15%，一些关键行 业的整体利润降幅较为明显。 分析认为，当龙头德企在本土难以实现可持续盈利，其影响已不再局限于资本市场，而是逐步向就业、 投资 ...

尽管商界领袖呼吁改革，但并未触及绿色转型政策这一核心问题，这使得工业衰退的风险在2026年进一 步加剧。 据德国工商总会(DIHK)针对2.3万家会员企业的最新调查显示，德国经济危机已延续至2026年，仅有六 分之一的企业预计经济会出现好转，而四分之一的企业正计划进一步裁员。DIHK的数据指出，自2019 年以来，德国工业部门已流失约40万个就业岗位。DIHK主席Helena Melnikov警告称，如果政策制定者 不能采取果断行动，德国面临价值创造和就业机会进一步大规模流失的风险，形势已十分严峻。 这种衰退正在对德国经济结构造成连锁反应，从工业相关服务业到区域贸易，甚至公共财政均受波及。 斯图加特、埃尔朗根和沃尔夫斯堡等传统工业中心的市政财政正面临赤字挑战，营业税收入显著萎缩。 与此同时，资本外流趋势并未减缓，虽然2025年的具体流出规模尚不完全明朗，但2024年的净直接投资 流出额为645亿欧元，2023年更是超过1000亿欧元。 市场的深层担忧在于，持续的经济衰退和明显的去工业化迹象表明，德国经济可能已经跨过了一个关键 的"临界点"。投资者和企业正在逃离高昂的监管成本和财政负担，而政府通过大量举债和补贴 ...

01 时代分野：两种路径的清晰对照 21世纪的全球经济格局，呈现出中美两国截然不同的产业发展图景。 一个路径清晰可见：以美国为代表的部分发达国家，经历了激进的"去工业化"过程，将制造环节大规模转移到成本更低的 国家和地区，国内经济重心转向金融、科技等虚拟经济。 经济"空心化"成为这些国家挥之不去的阴影。以制造业为核心的物质生产和资本大量向外转移，导致物质生产在国内经济 中的地位显著下降。 另一条路径同样明确：中国始终坚持将发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上，尤其是制造业。尽管中国已是世界第一工业大 国，制造业规模连续15年稳居世界第一，但国家仍将"保持制造业合理比重"视为重大战略任务。 中国制造业的发展成果显著。从2020年的26.6万亿元增长到2024年的33.6万亿元，仅"十四五"期间的制造业增加值增量就预 计达到8万亿元，对全球制造业增长贡献率超过30%。 02 美国困境：产业空心化的多重代价 美国曾经是"世界工厂"，如今却面临制造业基础被削弱的严峻挑战。 这一进程的直观恶果是制造业产业体系出现严重损坏。以波音公司为例，这家美国制造业的标杆企业，如今高度依赖全球 供应链来生产飞机零部件，其本土制造能力已大幅 ...

Group 1 - The core issue facing the French economy is the rising sensitivity to prices among consumers, leading to cautious spending behavior during the holiday season, reflecting deeper structural problems [1] - France's public debt is projected to reach 117.4% of GDP by the end of Q3 2025, with a fiscal deficit forecasted at 5.5% of GDP, significantly above the EU's 3% limit, indicating severe fiscal pressure [2] - The French manufacturing sector is struggling, with the share of manufacturing in GDP currently at about 9%, far below the EU average of 15%, and a concerning trend of more factory closures than openings [3] Group 2 - Rising living costs are suppressing consumer spending, with inflation rates around 1% since February, but the actual cost of living is perceived to be much higher, particularly in housing and food [4] - Analysts note that while overall inflation is decreasing due to falling energy prices, food and housing costs continue to rise, and wage growth is lagging behind inflation, posing a significant challenge for consumer purchasing power [5]

Group 1 - The German Finance Minister, Christian Lindner, expressed frustration over Deutsche Bahn's plan to purchase electric buses from China, highlighting concerns about the impact of Chinese manufacturing on German industry [1][3] - Volkswagen has closed its factory in Dresden, marking the first closure of a domestic manufacturing plant in 88 years, reflecting the struggles of German manufacturing [3][5] - Germany's energy policy has led to significant challenges, including the demolition of the advanced Moorburg coal power plant, which was seen as a political sacrifice rather than a technical failure [5][6] Group 2 - The Green Party's energy policies have resulted in a shift away from nuclear and coal power, leading to increased electricity costs for both residents and industries, with industrial electricity prices reaching approximately 26 cents per kilowatt-hour, significantly higher than in China and the U.S. [20][22] - The transition to renewable energy has been complicated by bureaucratic hurdles, with the German wind energy sector facing excessive regulations that hinder progress [10][12] - Despite the push for renewable energy, Germany remains reliant on imported solar components from China, as domestic production is minimal, leading to increased costs and slower installation rates [12][14] Group 3 - The German manufacturing sector is experiencing a downturn, with industrial output contracting by 4.3% and the automotive industry seeing an 18.5% decline, resulting in a significant number of bankruptcies among German companies [20][22] - BASF and Michelin are scaling back operations in Germany, with BASF planning to close some domestic production facilities and lay off 2,600 workers [22] - The overall economic performance of Germany is declining, with a GDP contraction of 0.3% in 2023, making it the only G7 country to experience economic shrinkage [22][23] Group 4 - German companies are increasingly relocating operations to China, with the phrase "in China, for China" becoming a common sentiment among German manufacturers [25][27] - The shift in manufacturing focus has led to a significant reduction in domestic industrial capabilities, with many companies opting to move production to countries with lower costs [25][27]

Core Insights - The U.S. defense budget for 2025 is set at $895.2 billion, which exceeds the combined military spending of the next nine countries and could purchase a significant portion of the European stock market [1][7] - The current state of the U.S. military-industrial complex is characterized by inefficiencies, corruption, and a lack of effective production capabilities, leading to a situation where funds do not translate into tangible military assets [1][7] Group 1: Budget and Spending - The F-35 program has consumed $1.7 trillion, equivalent to funding three Gulf Wars or rebuilding two Ukraines, yet it suffers from high failure rates and long maintenance schedules [3][7] - The U.S. shipbuilding industry has seen a drastic decline, with China capturing 50% of the global market share while the U.S. holds only 0.1%, indicating a severe industrial gap [5][7] Group 2: Industrial Capacity and Workforce - The existing industrial system is unable to convert financial resources into military supplies, exemplified by the inability to produce basic ammunition for Ukraine despite congressional funding [7][23] - The U.S. military-industrial sector has undergone significant consolidation, leaving only six major contractors, which has led to a lack of competition and innovation [10][12] Group 3: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - A significant portion of critical minerals required for defense production is sourced from China, exposing the U.S. to supply chain vulnerabilities in times of conflict [14][23] - The military-industrial complex has shifted focus from defense production to financial gains, with executives prioritizing stock buybacks over national security [16][23] Group 4: Labor Issues and Future Outlook - Labor unrest is evident, as seen in the Boeing strike involving 3,200 workers, highlighting dissatisfaction with wages and working conditions in the defense sector [18][23] - The aging workforce in manufacturing poses a long-term challenge, as younger generations are opting for careers outside traditional manufacturing roles, leading to a skills gap [20][23] Group 5: Reform Challenges - Efforts to reform the procurement process face significant resistance from entrenched interests within the military-industrial complex, making it difficult to implement necessary changes [21][23] - The current military spending is resulting in unaccounted expenses and delays, contributing to a downward spiral in the defense industry's effectiveness [23]

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is attempting to reduce its reliance on Eastern countries for critical raw materials, particularly rare earth elements, to ensure supply chain security [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Strategic Initiatives - The EU has launched the "ResourceEU" plan, committing €3 billion (approximately 24.7 billion RMB) to key raw materials needed for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and semiconductors over the next year [2]. - The intention behind this investment is to diversify Europe's supply chain through recycling, joint procurement, and strategic reserves, aiming to regain some control over rare earth materials [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks - The acquisition of Less Common Metals (LCM) by USA Rare Earth signifies a critical blow to Europe's rare earth industry, as LCM is one of the few companies in Europe capable of converting rare earth oxides into metals and alloys [5][8]. - The loss of LCM means that Europe may not be able to produce the magnets required for electric vehicles, despite having access to raw materials [7][11]. - The current situation indicates that while Europe seeks to establish its own supply chain, it is losing existing capabilities to American companies, which could lead to a dependency shift from China to the U.S. [11][12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. is leveraging its capital strength and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to acquire critical mineral assets globally, which poses a threat to Europe's industrial base [13][15]. - There is a growing realization that the EU's efforts to secure raw materials may inadvertently lead to a form of dependency on the U.S., rather than achieving true autonomy [12][20]. - The EU's current predicament reflects a struggle between wanting to reduce reliance on China while simultaneously facing the risk of becoming subordinate to U.S. interests in the critical materials sector [20][22].