左涨价右固态 锂电中游涨价全梳理+固态电池行情解读 20251118 摘要 溶剂 EC 价格已上涨 11%至 5,200 元/吨，EMC 和 DMC 分别上涨至 7,200 元/吨和 5,000 元/吨，涨幅分别为 6%和 5%，主要受行业停产检 修导致供给减少及下游需求增长驱动，预计四季度影响市场供给 30-35 万吨。 VC 均价显著跳涨至 13.25 万元/吨，较底部价格上涨约 150%-160%， 反映市场供需紧张，预计 2026 年需求增速将超预期，储能电池高添加 比例将进一步推高需求，头部企业联合意愿强烈及短期供给侧扰动加剧。 预计 2026 年 VC 需求量将达到 10-11 万吨，供给量约为 12 万吨，开 工率维持高位，看好华盛锂电、海科新源等公司，同时关注福日股份、 富强药业及永太科技等公司。 六氟磷酸锂行业开工率超过 90%，头部企业配合意愿强烈，继续支撑市 场表现，预计 2026 年产品均价约为 12 万元，关注天基股份、多氟多、 天赐材料、石大盛华等公司。 Q&A 近期锂电重要材料的涨价情况如何？有哪些主要因素推动了价格上涨？ 近期锂电重要材料的涨价趋势明显，主要集中在电解液相关品种 ...

Core Insights - China has established itself as the "world battery factory" due to its comprehensive advantages in technology research and supply chain integration, while facing both short-term challenges and long-term restructuring in the battery new energy industry [1][20] Industry Developments - The 12th China (Suzhou) International Summit Forum on Battery New Energy Industry was held from November 11 to 13, focusing on "Innovation and Adaptation to Reshape Value," gathering over 500 representatives from various sectors to explore development paths and high-quality growth in the industry [3] - The battery new energy industry has transitioned from a phase of scale expansion to a new cycle of value creation, although it is still undergoing deep adjustments with ongoing price wars and uncertainties from international trade barriers and raw material price fluctuations [5][6] Technological Innovations - Solid-state and sodium-ion battery technologies are crucial for overcoming competition and profit pressures in the battery new energy sector, with a focus on technological breakthroughs and strategic innovation [7][20] - Solid-state batteries are recognized for their high safety, energy density, and long cycle life, with demand expected to reach 156 GWh by 2030 as the technology matures and costs decrease [11] - Sodium-ion batteries are gaining traction due to their cost advantages, projected to be 30% lower than lithium batteries, and the growing market for electric two- and three-wheelers in China [20] Market Trends - The battery technology landscape is diversifying, with trends indicating that both ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries will coexist in the long term, and high energy density batteries will be essential for advanced electric vehicles and eVTOLs [25] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards proactive safety technologies that aim to detect risks early, contrasting with traditional methods that react post-incident [31] Strategic Focus - Companies are urged to prioritize technology, market orientation, supply chain integration, and ecological sustainability to navigate industry challenges and capitalize on new opportunities [31]

Group 1: Industry Growth - In the first ten months of this year, China's new energy vehicle (NEV) production and sales reached 13.01 million and 12.94 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% [2][4] - NEV exports totaled 2.014 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 90.4% [1][2] - In October, NEV monthly sales surpassed 50% of total new car sales for the first time, reaching 51.6% [2] Group 2: Market Drivers - The growth in NEVs is attributed to effective domestic policies such as the vehicle replacement subsidy and the upcoming halving of the purchase tax for NEVs, which is expected to drive a new consumption peak [2][4] - Continuous innovation in product offerings, technological upgrades, and improvements in charging infrastructure have also contributed to the robust growth of the NEV market [2] Group 3: Battery and Material Trends - The lithium battery sector is experiencing a revival, with the copper foil industry currently in a state of high demand, transitioning from a previous period of losses [3][4] - Citigroup analysts noted that the recent momentum in lithium demand is driven by strong market needs rather than supply disruptions, with expectations for battery demand to grow significantly in the coming years [3][4] - By 2030, energy storage systems (ESS) are projected to account for one-third of total battery demand, up from 20% last year [3] Group 4: Price Trends and Performance - Prices for key lithium battery materials are generally stable with some increases, particularly in electrolyte products due to short-term supply-demand imbalances [4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the lithium battery sector generated revenue of 1.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.81% [4] - The shipment of lithium batteries for energy storage reached 430 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 99.07%, representing 34.15% of total lithium battery shipments [4] Group 5: Policy and Market Outlook - Recent government policies aim to enhance the consumption and regulation of new energy, including the introduction of a pricing mechanism for new energy storage [4][5] - The solid-state battery sector is gaining attention, with upcoming conferences focusing on technological advancements and commercialization strategies [5][6]

多重利好催化，新能源板块持续反弹，创业板新能源ETF（159387）今日盘中涨超1.5%。 1、光伏反内卷稳步推进："政策支持+市场化出清+技术迭代"三大要素将支撑产业链重回健康经营通 道。反内卷仍是核心主线，硅料收并购方案、限产限销政策等有望逐步落地。此外，光伏逆变器相关企 业基本也都布局储能业务，有望充分受益于储能需求爆发。 2、储能进入量价齐升通道：国内方面，政策托底+终端收益率改善的底层逻辑驱动需求延续高增。海 外方面，美国AIDC扩容加剧缺电，终端需求好于预期；非美市场受益光储平价+政府补贴，需求高增 延续。供需改善下，产业链价格已逐步进入上涨周期。 3、固态电池技术不断突破：近期固态电池板块技术突破消息不断，我国多个科研团队纷纷出手，三大 关键技术"特殊胶水"、"柔性变身"和"氟力加固"的突破，有望解决固固界面的接触难题，彻底打通固态 电池的续航瓶颈。25Q4有望在政策预期和产业催化下迎来持续性行情，具有边际变化的碘离子、电解 质、设备等环节有望受益。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

据央视新闻报道， 从明年1月1日起，我国新能源汽车购置税将从全额免税调整为减半征收。 近段时间，受车购税将调整及年底传统销售旺季影响，我国新能源汽车市场迎来新一轮消费高 峰。 海南海口的一家汽车展厅负责人表示，政策调整消息与年底旺季叠加， 近期门店客流和订单 量比平时涨了近六成， 已加配了销售人手，延长了营业时间。 中国汽车流通协会相关负责人表示，这次政策调整不仅是税收手段的变化， 更是推动新能源 汽车产业从"价格战"走向"价值战"的关键一步 ，通过设置技术门槛引导行业向高质量发展转 型。 业内人士表示，严格的技术门槛将倒逼车企加大核心技术研发投入，专注于提升产品品质、优 化能耗表现与续航能力，而非单纯依托政策红利进行低成本竞争。这将有效帮助新能源汽车行 业摆脱内卷，转向以技术创新为核心的高质量发展轨道，助力行业实现可持续健康发展。 记者丨刘雪莹 见习记者林健民 编辑丨江佩霞 视频 丨 柳润瑛 东莞证券近期研报称，根据GGII数据显示，Q3我国储能电池出货量同比增长超过六成，前三 季度出货量已超过去年全年总量的30%。国内储能电芯供应紧张，头部电池企业全线满产，预 计供不应求的状态将持续至明年Q1。与此同时， ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery industry is experiencing unprecedented development opportunities driven by a technological revolution and market demand resonance, particularly with breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology and explosive growth in the global energy storage market [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The lithium battery sector is expected to see a significant increase in capital expenditure (Capex) driven by solid-state battery technology breakthroughs by 2025, alongside continuous supply-side reforms and capacity consolidation from 2023 to 2025, leading to a potential reversal in supply-demand dynamics and price increases across multiple segments [2] - The lithium battery midstream is entering a "recovery-prosperity" phase in 2024-2025, with revenue and inventory trends indicating an upward trajectory since Q1 2024, suggesting a prosperous inventory cycle by Q3 2025 [2] - New technologies and applications are expected to create a second growth wave for lithium batteries, with solid-state batteries being a long-term strategic focus that will reshape processes and material systems, transitioning to pilot production lines by 2025 [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The industry is characterized by clear competitive advantages for leading products and cost structures, with top players likely to achieve full capacity utilization first, ensuring the most reliable performance and flexibility [3] - The supply chain for lithium hexafluorophosphate, energy storage batteries, and separators is expected to see price increases, indicating high-growth potential in these segments [3] Group 3: Production Tracking - Domestic battery sample enterprises are projected to produce 144.14 GWh in November, reflecting a 1.76% month-on-month increase [4] - Overseas battery sample enterprises are expected to maintain production at 24.4 GWh, showing no month-on-month change [5] - Production of cathodes is expected to reach 176,600 tons, up 7.35% month-on-month, while anodes are projected at 155,000 tons, down 1.89% month-on-month [6][7] - Separator production is anticipated at 1.89 billion square meters, up 3.56% month-on-month, and electrolyte production at 107,000 tons, up 8% month-on-month [8][9] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Focus on the following key areas: 1) Pilot production lines for semi-solid and solid-state batteries, along with core equipment and material specifications [9] 2) New solid-state battery technologies such as lithium metal anodes and dry electrodes [9] 3) Price increase opportunities in segments like lithium hexafluorophosphate, energy storage batteries, separators, and anodes [9] 4) Explosive demand from data centers and core suppliers for energy storage, BBU, and UPS batteries [9] 5) Sodium-ion batteries gaining traction in energy storage and two-wheeler applications [9] Group 5: Lithium Market Dynamics - In the short term, the lithium market is experiencing high supply levels with strong demand from both the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, leading to increased material demand and a low inventory situation [10] - Monthly demand for independent domestic energy storage and overseas AI storage is expected to remain above 120,000 tons, with a monthly inventory reduction of 8,000 to 10,000 tons, providing ongoing price support [10] - The demand growth forecast for energy storage in 2026 has been revised upward, indicating an improving supply-demand balance and a potential acceleration in inventory reduction [10]

以下文章来源于星海情报局 ，作者星海老局 星海情报局 . 关注国产替代和中国品牌出海，每年写100个中国品牌案例，见证中国产业崛起！ 我是芯片超人花姐，入行20年，有50W+芯片行业粉丝。 有很多不方便公开发公众号的， 关于芯片买卖、关于资 源链接等， 我会分享在朋友圈 。 扫码加我本人微信 "期望越大，失望越大"，这句话，值得我们在很多时候细细品味。 一件本来还算不错的事情，倘若我们对它抱有过高的期望，那么等它落地之后，我们只要看到了一 点点缺陷，都会产生巨大的落差感，哪怕这件事儿本身并不差。 这就是人性，而人性左右了市场，特别是资本市场。 固态电池最近这段时间很火，隔三差五就会有新的技术突破，老局也观察了很久，尤其是作为一个 新能源汽车车主，每次看到这些技术突破，更是会有一种"买车买早了"的后悔感。 但问题是，固态电池真的就有那么神奇吗？真的就能满足人们的各种期望吗？ 答案，其实是处于一个既肯定又否定的叠加态。 说肯定，是因为固态电池有它自己的优点，极为突出且无可替代。 说否定，是因为它的缺点和瓶颈同样不可忽视，且并非都是技术问题。 在老局个人看来：固态电池当然是一个好东西，但我们对它也确实产生了许多不切 ...

以下文章来源于星海情报局 ，作者星海老局 星海情报局 . 关注国产替代和中国品牌出海，每年写100个中国品牌案例，见证中国产业崛起！ 本文来自微信公众号： 星海情报局 ，作者：星海老局，题图来自：AI生成 "期望越大，失望越大" ，这句话，值得我们在很多时候细细品味。 一件本来还算不错的事情，倘若我们对它抱有过高的期望，那么等它落地之后，我们只要看到了一点 点缺陷，都会产生巨大的落差感，哪怕这件事儿本身并不差。 这就是人性，而人性左右了市场，特别是资本市场。 固态电池最近这段时间很火，隔三差五就会有新的技术突破，老局也观察了很久，尤其是作为一个新 能源汽车车主，每次看到这些技术突破，更是会有一种"买车买早了"的后悔感。 但问题是，固态电池真的就有那么神奇吗？真的就能满足人们的各种期望吗？ 答案，其实是处于一个既肯定又否定的叠加态。 而在用电的时候，由于正极那边已经没有了外界的电压，锂离子则会从负极经过电解质、隔膜而返回 正极。同时，电子也会走外部线路从正极流出，从而形成了供我们使用的电流。 说肯定，是因为固态电池有它自己的优点，极为突出且无可替代。 说否定，是因为 它的缺点和瓶颈同样不可忽视，且并非都是技术问 ...

行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 电力设备 沪深300 电力设备 电力设备 2025 年 11 月 02 日 固态电池行业周报（第二十一期）：清华团队破解固 态电池快充与低温瓶颈，三星 SDI、宝马、Solid Power 三方合作开发全固态电池 ——行业周报 相关研究报告 《光伏拐点已现，储能大势所趋—光 储行业 2026 年度投资策略》-2025.11.1 《动储需求旺盛，产业链供需拐点已 至—锂电行业 2026 年度投资策略》 -2025.11.1 《固态电池行业周报（第二十期）： 欣旺达发布"欣·碧霄"固态电池， 珠海冠宇已量产 25%高硅负极电池— 行业周报》-2025.10.26 殷晟路（分析师） yinshenglu@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522080001 清华团队破解固态电池快充与低温瓶颈，三星 SDI、宝马、Solid Power 三方 合作开发全固态电池 （1）技术进展：近日，清华大学深圳国际研究生院康飞宇、贺艳兵团队联合天 津大学杨全红团队在《Nature》发表研究，提出 ...

Core Insights - Solid-state batteries are emerging as a core development direction for next-generation battery technology due to their superior safety performance and energy density compared to traditional lithium batteries [1] - The solid-state battery sector has seen a significant surge in stock performance, with 14 constituent stocks rising over 20% in the week leading up to October 31, 2023, and Tianji Co. achieving a remarkable 41% increase [1] - The growth is driven by domestic technological breakthroughs and policy support, reflecting a strategic push by Chinese companies to expand their global market presence [1] Industry Overview - The global solid-state battery industry is at a critical juncture of technological breakthroughs and accelerated industrialization, driven by increasing demand for power batteries in electric vehicles, growth in the energy storage sector, and innovation in consumer electronics [1][2] - Policy support is characterized by high density and strong targeting, with multiple departments prioritizing solid-state batteries as a key focus area, aiming to cultivate 3-5 global leaders by 2027 [2] - Industry data indicates rapid growth, with global solid-state battery demand projected to range from 17.3 GWh to 44.2 GWh by 2025, potentially soaring to between 200 GWh and 808 GWh by 2030 as technology matures and costs decline [2] Technological Developments - Multiple technical routes for solid-state batteries have been established, including sulfide, oxide, polymer, and halide, each with complementary advantages [3] - The industry anticipates that major technical routes will be validated and demonstrated on a small scale by 2025-2027, with large-scale production expected before 2030 [3] Challenges and Constraints - The development of solid-state batteries faces several bottlenecks, including the need for core technological breakthroughs in key performance indicators such as ionic conductivity and mechanical properties [4] - Cost and scalability present additional challenges, as the production processes for solid-state batteries are more complex than traditional lithium batteries, leading to lower production efficiency and higher costs [4] - International competition is significant, with Japanese and Korean companies having established early positions in the market, while U.S. and European firms leverage capital advantages to accelerate their market presence [4] Market Performance - Tianhua New Energy, a key player in solid-state battery materials, saw its stock price rise by 19.06% this week, indicating increased market attention [5] - The Xinhua Outbound Electric New Index reached a new high, with year-to-date returns of 85%, driven by ongoing technological breakthroughs in solid-state batteries and increased demand for large-scale energy storage systems [5]