Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) will also decline significantly. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period has lengthened. The issuance of new special bonds has used part of the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds shows a narrowing trend for the 10Y and a widening trend for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate has decreased. Attention should be paid to the cost - effectiveness of 3/10/15Y local government bonds [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance/net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.15 - 2025.12.21) was 40.037 billion yuan/28.157 billion yuan (compared with 106.955 billion yuan/62.187 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance/net financing in the next period (2025.12.22 - 2025.12.28) is 2.037 billion yuan/- 3.174 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period was 16.15 years, which was longer than 12.52 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 96.2% and 103.4% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it remains at 96.2% and 103.4%. The cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original 4.4 trillion yuan quota by 14.95 billion yuan/15.15 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 92.0%/99.7% and 94.5%/99.8%, and in 2023, it was 97.2%/98.0% and 97.3%/98.1% [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds in December 2025 is 176.1 billion yuan in total, of which new special bonds are 58.4 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, 17 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 176.1 billion yuan, with new special bonds of 58.4 billion yuan. The previous year's issuance in the same regions was 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan, and the national issuance in the same period of the previous year was 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 1.2 billion yuan, and there was no issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts and repaying existing debts. As of December 19, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1366.8 billion yuan (1.2 billion yuan in the current period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing implicit debts was 2000 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period), with the issuance progress reaching 100%, and this year's quota has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan carry - over quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 287.5 billion yuan (0 billion yuan in the current period) [2]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds in the current period narrowed for the 10Y and widened for the 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of December 19, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 22.92BP and 21.48BP respectively, narrowing by 1.12BP and widening by 3.35BP compared with December 12, 2025 (which were 24.04BP and 18.13BP respectively on December 12, 2025), and were at the 72.20% and 83.20% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.77%, a decrease compared with 0.86% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Guizhou were better than the national average [2]. - Regarding the cost - effectiveness of local government bonds, taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

2025 年 12 月 14 日 减国债利差表现分化，下周发行降 速 ——地方债周度跟踪 20251212 相关研究 《今年 2 万亿置换隐债专项债已全 部发行完毕——地方债周度跟踪 20251205》 2025/12/07 《发行提速但下周再降速，5000 亿 结存限额发行或已过半 ——地方 债周度跟踪 20251128》 2025/11/30 《减国债利差皆收窄，下周发行明 显提速——地方债周度跟踪 20251121》 2025/11/23 《新增债发行提速，减国债利差表 现分化——地方债周度跟踪 20251114》 2025/11/16 《7Y 以上地方债减国债利差收窄， 下周发行明显提速——地方债周度 跟踪 20251107》 2025/11/10 《地方债，正当时》 2025/04/09 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 huangwp@swsresearch.com 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 联系人 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 yangxf@swsresearch.com 债 券 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) decreased significantly compared to the previous period, and the expected issuance and net financing in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) are similar to the current period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2]. - The issuance of new special-purpose bonds has started using the 50 billion yuan remaining quota, and the cumulative issuance in the current and next periods exceeds the original quota by 7.02 billion yuan and 12.02 billion yuan respectively. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 157.2 billion yuan, including 49.5 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of December 5, 2025, 16 regions have disclosed their planned issuance, with the same regions issuing 420.3 billion yuan and 800 million yuan in the same period last year, and the whole country issuing 1091.3 billion yuan and 2.11 billion yuan [2]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. The 2 trillion yuan quota for special-purpose bonds to replace hidden debts this year has been fully issued [2]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period. As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025 [2]. - Currently, the spreads of 15-year, 20-year, and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds, especially the 15-year ones, have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds in the current period decreased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - The total issuance of local government bonds in the current period (2025.12.01 - 2025.12.07) was 108.717 billion yuan (102.54 billion yuan in the previous period), and the expected issuance in the next period (2025.12.08 - 2025.12.14) is 106.954 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds in the current period is 11.22 years, shorter than the previous period's 15.41 years [2][9]. - As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 92.8% and 101.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 95.5% and 102.7% considering the next period's expected issuance. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 91.2%/99.5% and 92.0%/99.5% respectively, and in 2023 was 95.0%/96.7% and 96.1%/97.9% respectively [2][18]. - In the current period, 740 million yuan of special new special-purpose bonds were issued, 110 million yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and 5.02 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts were issued. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 135.83 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 200 billion yuan, reaching 100% of the issuance progress, and the quota for this year has been fully issued; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 50 billion yuan remaining quota mentioned in the Ministry of Finance's press conference on October 17) was 27.06 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened comprehensively in the current period, and the weekly turnover rate increased compared to the previous period - As of December 5, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 19.20BP and 24.29BP respectively, widening by 1.32BP and 1.80BP compared to November 28, 2025, and were at the 49.80% and 94.30% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][33]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds in the current period was 0.87%, up from the previous period's 0.69%. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Jilin, and Tianjin were better than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly on a weekly basis this period but are expected to decline significantly next period. As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period [4]. - As of November 28, 2025, the issuance of special new special-purpose bonds this period was 541 billion yuan, the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 27 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 788 billion yuan. The cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds reached 13,508 billion yuan, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts reached 19,989 billion yuan with a progress of 99.9%, and the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts since October 2025 was 2,204 billion yuan [4]. - The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the weekly turnover rate decreased on a weekly basis. As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period [4]. - Currently, the spreads of 15/20/30Y, especially 15Y, local government bonds over treasury bonds have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This Period: Local Government Bond Issuance Increased and the Weighted Issuance Term Lengthened - This period (November 24 - 30, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 351.359 billion yuan/326.212 billion yuan (last period was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan), and next period (December 1 - 7, 2025), the expected issuance/net financing is 108.717 billion yuan/60.494 billion yuan [4][11]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 15.41 years, longer than 14.30 years last period (November 17 - 23, 2025) [4][12]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special-purpose bonds accounted for 91.4% and 100.7% of the annual quota respectively, and 92.8% and 101.6% considering the expected issuance next period. The part exceeding 100% may come from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17 [4][20]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds in December 2025 is 105 billion yuan in total, including 21.3 billion yuan of new special-purpose bonds. As of November 28, 2025, 11 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 105 billion yuan, compared with 242.6 billion yuan and 8 billion yuan in the same regions and 1,091.3 billion yuan and 21.1 billion yuan nationwide in the same period last year [4][26]. - As of November 28, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special-purpose bonds was 13,508 billion yuan (54.1 billion yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 19,989 billion yuan (2.7 billion yuan issued this period) with a progress of 99.9%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance (only 1.1 billion yuan of quota in Henan remains to be issued); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 billion yuan of remaining quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 2,204 billion yuan (78.8 billion yuan issued this period) [4][22]. 3.2 This Period: The Spread between Local Government Bonds and Treasury Bonds Widened for 10Y and 30Y, and the Weekly Turnover Rate Decreased on a Weekly Basis - As of November 28, 2025, the spreads of 10-year and 30-year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 17.88BP and 22.49BP respectively, up 3.54BP and 4.25BP from November 21, 2025, and were at the 42.70% and 88.00% historical percentiles since 2023 respectively [4][36]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.69%, down from 0.80% last period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, and Tianjin were better than the national average [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period but are expected to increase significantly next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds this period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23) was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan, while the forecast for next period (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.30) is 351.461 billion yuan/326.313 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds slowed down this period but is expected to speed up significantly next period. As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to reach 91.4% and 100.7% considering the forecast for next period [2]. - The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of November 21, 2025, the spreads for 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds over treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost - effectiveness [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond Issuance and Net Financing - This period's issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased compared to the previous period, and are expected to increase next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.30 years, longer than 13.90 years in the previous period [2]. - As of November 21, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance of 713.3 billion yuan of local government bonds for November - December 2025, including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. 3.2 New Bond Issuance Progress - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the forecast for next period, the proportions are expected to be 91.4% and 100.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 90.9%/98.0% and 91.1%/99.2%, and in 2023 was 94.3%/95.9% and 94.5%/96.2% [2]. 3.3 Special Bond Issuance - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 129.67 billion yuan (4.9 billion yuan issued this period). The cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.62 billion yuan (0 billion yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.8%. Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts was 14.16 billion yuan (4 billion yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.4 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 21, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2]. - The 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Xiamen, Beijing, and Jiangxi have better yields and liquidity than the national average [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis this period, but are expected to increase significantly next period. The issuance/net financing of local government bonds in this period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23) was 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan, and the expected issuance/net financing for next period (2025.11.24 - 2025.11.30) is 351.461 billion yuan/326.313 billion yuan [2]. - The issuance of new local government bonds slowed down this period and is expected to speed up significantly next period. As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period [2]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan [2]. - The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds for 10 - year and 30 - year terms narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis. As of November 21, 2025, the spreads were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025 [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period compared to the previous period, but is expected to increase next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.30 years, longer than 13.90 years in the previous period [2][5][10]. - As of November 21, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 90.3% and 95.6% of the annual quota respectively, and is expected to be 91.4% and 100.7% considering the expected issuance next period. The cumulative issuance progress is lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2][13][16]. - The planned issuance of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan in total, with new special bonds amounting to 347.5 billion yuan. As of November 21, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed the planned issuance [2][24][25]. - This period, special new special bonds worth 4.9 billion yuan were issued, and special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued at 0 billion yuan and 40 billion yuan respectively [2][20][21]. 3.2 This period, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week - on - week basis - As of November 21, 2025, the 10 - year and 30 - year spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds were 14.34BP and 18.24BP respectively, narrowing by 1.26BP and 3.95BP compared to November 14, 2025, and are at the 18.00% and 69.70% historical quantiles since 2023 [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.80%, up from 0.71% in the previous period [2][37][38]. - The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Xiamen, Beijing, and Jiangxi are better than the national average [2]. - The spreads between 15/20/30 - year, especially 15 - year, local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain value for investment. Since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds increased significantly this period, but are expected to decline next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds shortened this period. The issuance progress of new bonds is still slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan, including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds. The spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term this period, and the weekly turnover rate decreased. The spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. [3] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 This period, the issuance volume of local government bonds increased, and the weighted issuance term shortened - This period (2025.11.10 - 2025.11.16), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 285.066 billion yuan/242.792 billion yuan (last period was 91.607 billion yuan/-33.641 billion yuan), and next period (2025.11.17 - 2025.11.23), the expected issuance/net financing is 184.659 billion yuan/126.343 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 13.90 years, shorter than 14.57 years in the previous period. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 87.8% and 93.7% of the annual quota respectively, and considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 90.3% and 95.6%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.9%/97.2% and 90.9%/98.0%, and in 2023 it was 91.6%/94.4% and 94.3%/95.9%. [3] - As of November 14, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the scale of local government bonds planned to be issued from November to December 2025 is 713.3 billion yuan (701.6 billion yuan in November and 11.7 billion yuan in December), including 347.5 billion yuan of new special bonds (343.9 billion yuan in November and 3.6 billion yuan in December). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 1897.6 billion yuan and 71.8 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 2405.4 billion yuan and 106.8 billion yuan. [3] - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 4 billion yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 5.1 billion yuan and 0.28 billion yuan respectively. As of November 14, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 1291.8 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1996.2 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.8%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 101.6 billion yuan. [3] 3.2 This period, the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed for the 10 - year term and widened for the 30 - year term, and the weekly turnover rate decreased - As of November 14, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 15.60BP and 22.19BP respectively, narrowing by 4.98BP and widening by 2.00BP compared with November 7, 2025, and were at the 25.80% and 87.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively. The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.71%, a decrease compared with 0.87% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10 - year local government bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Jilin, and Qingdao were better than the national average. [3] - Currently, the spread between 15 - 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment. Taking 10 - year local government bonds as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP above the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP. [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a sequential basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a sequential basis next period. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds lengthened. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a sequential basis. The current spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds still has certain value for investment [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Current Situation of Local Government Bond Issuance - This period (from November 3, 2025, to November 9, 2025), the total issuance/net financing of local government bonds was 9.1607 billion yuan/-3.3641 billion yuan (compared to 27.0682 billion yuan/17.5677 billion yuan in the previous period). It is expected that the issuance/net financing next period (from November 10, 2025, to November 16, 2025) will be 28.5067 billion yuan/24.2792 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][6]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds/new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][15]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed that the planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan (70.16 billion yuan and 1.17 billion yuan in November and December respectively), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan and 0.36 billion yuan in November and December respectively). The issuance in the same period last year in the same regions was 189.76 billion yuan and 7.18 billion yuan, and the national issuance in the same period last year was 240.54 billion yuan and 10.68 billion yuan [2]. - This period, the issuance of special new special bonds was 100 million yuan, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts was 0 yuan and 570 million yuan respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan (100 million yuan issued this period); the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan (0 yuan issued this period), with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed the issuance (no new regions this period); since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts (possibly from the 500 - billion - yuan unused quota mentioned in the press conference of the Ministry of Finance on October 17) was 5.07 billion yuan (570 million yuan issued this period) [2]. 3.2 Spreads and Turnover Rate - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025 (23.46BP and 23.69BP on October 31, 2025), and were at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a sequential basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao were better than the national average this period [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The issuance and net financing of local government bonds decreased on a week-on-week basis this period, and are expected to increase significantly on a week-on-week basis next period. The current weighted issuance term of local government bonds has lengthened compared to the previous period [2]. - The current issuance progress of new local government bonds is relatively slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than the same period in 2023 and 2024 [2]. - The planned issuance scale of local government bonds from November to December 2025 is 71.33 billion yuan, including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds [2]. - The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis. The spreads between local government bonds and treasury bonds still have certain cost-effectiveness [2]. Summary by Directory 1. The issuance volume of local government bonds decreased this period, and the weighted issuance term lengthened - The total issuance of local government bonds this period (November 3 - November 9, 2025) was 91.607 billion yuan (compared to 270.682 billion yuan in the previous period), and the net financing was -33.641 billion yuan. The expected issuance and net financing next period (November 10 - November 16, 2025) are 285.067 billion yuan and 242.792 billion yuan respectively [2][9]. - The weighted issuance term of local government bonds this period was 14.57 years, which was longer than 13.72 years in the previous period [2][10]. - As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special bonds accounted for 86.2% and 90.5% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance next period, it will be 87.8% and 93.7%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 88.6%/97.0% and 88.9%/97.2%, and in 2023 it was 91.5%/94.4% and 91.6%/94.4% [2][13][16]. - As of November 7, 2025, 29 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of 71.33 billion yuan for local government bonds from November to December 2025 (70.16 billion yuan in November and 1.17 billion yuan in December), including 34.75 billion yuan of new special bonds (34.39 billion yuan in November and 0.36 billion yuan in December) [2][24]. - This period, 1 billion yuan of special new special bonds were issued, and 0 billion yuan and 5.7 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts and repaying existing debts were issued respectively. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special bonds was 125.18 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 199.34 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.7%, and 32 regions including Zhejiang have completed the issuance; since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 5.07 billion yuan [2][20]. 2. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds narrowed this period, and the weekly turnover rate increased on a week-on-week basis - As of November 7, 2025, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local government bonds and treasury bonds were 20.58BP and 20.19BP respectively, narrowing by 2.88BP and 3.50BP compared to October 31, 2025. They are at the 58.70% and 77.70% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2][30][34]. - The weekly turnover rate of local government bonds this period was 0.87%, increasing on a week-on-week basis compared to 0.70% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local government bonds in regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou, and Qingdao are better than the national average [2][37]. - Taking the 10Y local government bond as an observation anchor, since 2018, the upper limit of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the lower limit may be around the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the upper limit of the spread between local government bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the lower limit may be around 5 - 10BP [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide information on the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This period's local bond issuance and net financing have both increased significantly compared to the previous period, and the next period is expected to see a slight sequential increase. The weighted issuance term has also lengthened. Currently, the issuance progress of new bonds is slow, with the cumulative issuance progress lower than that of the same period in 2023 and 2024. The planned issuance scale of local bonds from October to November 2025 is large, and the special new special - purpose bonds and special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts have been issued. The spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased. The cost - effectiveness of exploring the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds has improved [2]. Summary According to the Directory 1. This period's local bond issuance volume has increased, and the weighted issuance term has lengthened - This period (2025.10.20 - 2025.10.26) local bonds were issued a total of 2472.28 billion yuan (323.01 billion yuan in the previous period), and the next period (2025.10.27 - 2025.11.2) is expected to issue 2706.82 billion yuan. The weighted issuance term of local bonds this period is 16.32 years, longer than 16.21 years in the previous period [2][9]. - As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of new general bonds and new special - purpose bonds accounted for 84.1% and 86.0% of the annual quota respectively. Considering the expected issuance in the next period, it will be 86.2% and 89.5%. The cumulative issuance progress in 2024 was 87.6%/94.6% and 88.4%/97.0%, and in 2023 it was 90.1%/89.0% and 91.2%/92.5% [2][18]. - As of October 24, 2025, 31 regions have disclosed a total planned issuance scale of local bonds of 1271.6 billion yuan from October to November 2025 (546 billion yuan in October and 725.6 billion yuan in November), including 742 billion yuan of new special - purpose bonds (361.1 billion yuan in October and 380.9 billion yuan in November) [2][24]. - This period, 32 billion yuan of special new special - purpose bonds were issued, 0 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, and 21.4 billion yuan of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts. As of October 24, 2025, the cumulative issuance of special new special - purpose bonds was 1238 billion yuan; the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts was 1992.4 billion yuan, with an issuance progress of 99.6%, and 32 regions such as Zhejiang have completed issuance. Since October 2025, the cumulative issuance of special refinancing bonds for repaying existing debts has been 21.4 billion yuan [2]. 2. This period, the spreads between 10Y and 30Y local bonds and treasury bonds have widened, and the weekly turnover rate has increased sequentially - As of October 24, 2025, the spreads between 10 - year and 30 - year local bonds and treasury bonds were 21.14BP and 19.74BP respectively, widening by 0.60BP and 1.76BP compared to October 17, 2025, and were at the 61.00% and 77.10% historical quantiles since 2023 respectively [2]. - This period's local bond weekly turnover rate was 0.63%, a sequential increase from 0.56% in the previous period. The yields and liquidity of 7 - 10Y local bonds in regions such as Guizhou, Tianjin, and Ningxia were better than the national average [2]. - Taking the 10 - year local bond as the observation anchor, since 2018, the top of the spread adjustment may be about 20 - 25BP higher than the lower limit of the issuance spread, and the bottom may be near the lower limit of the issuance spread. Currently, the top of the spread between local bonds and treasury bonds may be around 30 - 35BP, and the bottom may be around 5 - 10BP [2].