Core Viewpoint - The aluminum ingot (AL99.70) spot prices have increased significantly across various regions in China, indicating strong market demand or tight supply, which is expected to drive upward trends in aluminum prices [1][4]. Price Summary - On February 24, 2026, the spot prices for aluminum ingots in different regions are as follows: - East China: 23,390 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton from the previous trading day (February 13) - South China: 23,470 CNY/ton, up 260 CNY/ton - Southwest China: 23,390 CNY/ton, up 240 CNY/ton - Central China: 23,310 CNY/ton, up 230 CNY/ton [1][4]. Market Analysis - The significant price increases across the regions reflect a positive improvement in market fundamentals, with a strong demand or supply constraints being the likely drivers [2][5]. - A score of +2 has been assigned to the aluminum market, indicating a bullish sentiment due to the substantial price increases [2][5]. Pricing Mechanism - The pricing mechanism for aluminum is based on the benchmark price from the Business Society, which utilizes big data and pricing models to generate transaction guidance prices. This can be used for: 1. Settlement prices on specified dates 2. Average settlement prices over specified periods - The pricing formula is defined as: Settlement Price = Business Society Benchmark Price × K + C, where K is an adjustment coefficient and C includes logistics costs, brand price differences, and regional price differences [2][3][5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent surge in tin prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors and supply-demand dynamics, with a notable increase in trading volume and market focus on tin [1][2]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a slight decline in the US dollar index, which lowers the pricing cost of tin, thus benefiting commodity prices. Additionally, the US stock market's positive performance, particularly in technology stocks, has boosted sentiment in the metals sector [1][2]. - The fundamental support for tin prices is attributed to a tight supply-demand balance, exacerbated by geopolitical uncertainties in the Democratic Republic of Congo, a major source of tin imports for China [2]. Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties in the Democratic Republic of Congo continue to affect supply expectations, with concerns about supply disruptions due to ongoing unrest despite a peace agreement. This has led to upward pressure on tin prices [2]. - The supply side is tightening as domestic smelting plants are reducing operating rates and increasing maintenance ahead of the Chinese New Year, while the demand side sees a rise in inventory accumulation in the electronics sector [2]. - Leading companies in the tin industry, such as Yunnan Tin Company, have reported strong performance, with net profits reaching 1.745 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, providing stable supply support to the market [3]. Group 3 - Short-term investment strategies should focus on the pre-holiday inventory buildup, with essential purchasing companies advised to buy on dips. Speculative investors are encouraged to manage their positions carefully to avoid chasing high prices [4]. - The overall market sentiment remains bullish for tin prices due to the interplay of macroeconomic conditions, geopolitical risks, and supply-demand changes leading up to the holiday season [4].

Core Viewpoint - Tata Motors plans to increase the prices of its passenger vehicles in response to rising commodity costs, which have significantly impacted its cost structure and necessitated a price revision [2][3]. Group 1: Cost Pressures - The prices of key raw materials, including precious metals and copper, have risen, leading to a cost increase of over 2% for Tata Motors [3]. - Other major Indian automakers, such as Maruti Suzuki, are also evaluating price adjustments due to similar cost pressures, indicating a broader industry challenge [3][5]. - Tata Motors previously raised prices in April 2025 for its commercial vehicle segment by up to 2% due to similar cost pressures [5]. Group 2: Market Position and Growth - India has become the third-largest automotive market globally, with sales expected to exceed 4.9 million units in 2024, marking a record for three consecutive years [4]. - Tata Motors holds a dominant position in the electric vehicle sector, with a market share of nearly 66%, and its Nexon EV is the first electric model in India to surpass cumulative sales of 100,000 units [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Pricing and Brand Positioning - The price increase is part of Tata Motors' long-term strategy to upgrade its brand and is not merely a reaction to cost pressures [5][6]. - The company aims to transition from a low-cost brand to a more premium positioning, reflecting the changing consumer preferences in the Indian automotive market [6][7]. Group 4: Future Market Dynamics - The Indian automotive market is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating sales could approach 5 million units by 2025, although growth rates may slow due to rising prices and economic factors [7][8]. - The market is characterized by a dominance of fuel vehicles, but the rapid growth of electric vehicles is becoming a significant highlight [7][8]. - The competitive landscape features Maruti Suzuki as a market leader, while Tata Motors and Mahindra are emerging as key players in a "dual-hero" scenario [8].

Core Viewpoint - The spot prices of aluminum ingots (AL99.70) have significantly increased across various regions in China as of February 9, 2026, indicating strong market demand or supply constraints, which is favorable for spot prices [1][4]. Price Summary - In East China, the price is quoted at 23,400 CNY/ton, in South China at 23,430 CNY/ton, in Southwest China at 23,370 CNY/ton, and in Central China at 23,280 CNY/ton. These prices represent increases of 260 CNY/ton, 290 CNY/ton, 260 CNY/ton, and 250 CNY/ton respectively compared to the previous trading day (February 6) [1][4]. Market Analysis - The significant price increases suggest robust demand for aluminum or tight supply conditions, which is likely driven by a recovery in downstream manufacturing or a reduction in inventory levels, leading to a bullish sentiment in the short term [2][5]. Pricing Mechanism - The benchmark price from the Business Society is derived from big data and pricing models, serving as a trading guide price. It can be used to determine settlement prices for specified dates or average prices over specified periods. The pricing formula is: Settlement Price = Business Society Benchmark Price × K + C, where K is an adjustment coefficient and C includes premiums related to logistics, brand price differences, and regional price differences [2][3][5].

Market Performance - A-share market indices showed mixed performance this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.62%, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.58% and the SSE 50 Index increased by 1.13% [1] ETF Trends - Resource and technology sector ETFs have attracted significant capital recently, with the Brazil ETF leading the weekly gains at 22.5%, driven by the strong performance of the IBOVESPA index and key stocks like Vale and Petrobras benefiting from rising commodity prices [1] - The Brazil ETF currently has a premium rate of 15.04% [1] ETF Performance Rankings - The top-performing ETFs this week include: - Hotel F ETF: 22.50% - South Korea Semiconductor ETF: 17.14% - Brazil ETF: 12.55% - Gold Stocks ETF: 9.41% - Oil and Gas ETFs: around 7% [2][3] Fund Flows - The ETF market experienced a net outflow of 300 billion yuan this week, with broad-based ETFs seeing a net outflow of approximately 390 billion yuan, while industry ETFs recorded a significant net inflow of 68.55 billion yuan and commodity ETFs saw a net inflow of 24.36 billion yuan [3] Upcoming ETF Issuances - Four new ETFs are set to be issued next week, including: - Battery ETF by E Fund - Dividend Quality ETF by E Fund - Industrial Nonferrous ETF by Bosera - Hang Seng Biotechnology ETF by GF Fund [4][5]

Core Insights - Brazilian ETFs led the market this week with a remarkable weekly increase of 22.5%, primarily driven by the historical high of the IBOVESPA index and strong performances from key constituents [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Brazilian ETF achieved a weekly growth of 22.5%, ranking first among ETFs [1] - The IBOVESPA index reached a historical high at the end of January, contributing to the ETF's performance [1] - Key stocks such as Vale and Petrobras showed strong performance, positively influenced by rising commodity prices [1] Group 2: Other Notable ETFs - ETFs related to semiconductor industries in China and South Korea, gold stocks, oil and gas, energy, and AI on the STAR Market also performed well, ranking among the top gainers [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the base metals industry, particularly copper and gold, with specific attention to Chinese companies Zijin Mining and CMOC. - The global commodity team has revised up the price forecasts for gold and copper, indicating a positive outlook for the industry. Company Insights Zijin Mining - Earnings for Zijin are revised up by 14-18% for 2026-27E due to higher copper and gold price forecasts and increased lithium output [9][10] - Expected copper output growth of 14% in 2026E, reaching 1.24 million tons, with a target of 1.5-1.6 million tons by 2028E, implying a 45% growth from 2025 levels [10][11] - The Julong phase II operation has increased production capacity from 150,000 tons/day to 350,000 tons/day, expected to produce 300,000 tons of copper concentrate in 2026E [10] - Proposed acquisition of Allied Gold for C$5.5 billion could boost Zijin's 2026E net profit by 4% if completed [13] - Current share prices imply a copper price of US$10,430/ton if 2028E targets are achieved, which is 20% lower than the spot price [9] CMOC - CMOC's recurring earnings are revised up by 20-24% for 2026-27E, driven by higher copper output and contributions from newly acquired gold assets in Brazil [19][21] - Copper production for 2026E is guided to be between 760,000 and 820,000 tons, with a target of 1 million tons by 2028E [20] - The acquisition of three gold assets in Brazil is expected to contribute significantly to gold mining profits starting in 2026E [21][23] - Current share prices imply a copper price of US$9,287/ton if 2028E targets are achieved, which is 30% lower than the spot price [19] Commodity Price Forecasts - The global commodity team has increased the benchmark gold price forecast by 10-16% for 2026-27E, averaging US$4,978/oz in 2026E and US$5,585/oz in 1H27E [2] - LME copper price forecast has been revised up by 7% for 2026E to US$12,200/ton, with expectations of a US tariff impacting supply dynamics [2] Financial Metrics - Zijin's net profit is expected to reach RMB 76.7 billion in 2026E, with a recurring net profit of RMB 76.7 billion as well [17] - CMOC's net profit is projected to increase to RMB 35.7 billion in 2026E, with a recurring net profit of RMB 35.7 billion [26] - MMG's recurring earnings are revised up by 18-26% for 2025-27E, with a projected net profit of US$1.69 billion in 2026E [29] Additional Insights - The acquisitions and expansions in both Zijin and CMOC are expected to provide significant upside potential in earnings, particularly in a rising commodity price environment [10][19] - The overall sentiment in the base metals industry remains positive, with expectations of growth driven by both price increases and production expansions [1][2]

Group 1 - European stock markets experienced a slight increase, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index rising by 0.2%, driven by mining stocks following the upward trend in commodity prices [1][4] - Utility stocks also performed well, while the travel and leisure sector faced pressure due to flight disruptions in the US and the Middle East, along with cautious earnings guidance from Ryanair [1][4] - Investors are closely monitoring upcoming earnings reports to assess consumer demand resilience, especially after President Trump canceled tariffs related to Greenland on European countries, which helped the European benchmark index recover some losses [1][4] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates, with market focus shifting to the appointment of the new Fed Chair, which Trump is anticipated to announce soon [3][6] - Individual stock movements include a 6.1% increase in Nasdaq, as Morgan Stanley upgraded the rating of the Finnish energy group to "overweight," indicating further upside potential after a strong rise in 2025 [3][6] - Conversely, Teleperformance saw a 7.7% decline in stock price after CIC Market Solutions downgraded its rating and target price [3][6]

Group 1 - Tianjin Pulin expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.5 million to 6.5 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 80.81% to 86.71% [1] - The basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.02 yuan and 0.03 yuan [1] - The primary reason for the performance change is the increase in raw material costs due to rising commodity prices, leading to a decrease in gross profit margin [1] Group 2 - Taihe Circuit Technology (Zhuhai) Co., Ltd. is still in the process of customer certification, resulting in insufficient capacity release [1]

Core Viewpoint - China is a major importer of nickel ore, with a total import volume of 40.27 million tons from January to November 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.10% [1] Group 1: Incident Overview - On January 23, 2025, a foreign cargo ship named "DEVON BAY" capsized 55 nautical miles northwest of Huangyan Island, carrying 21 Filipino crew members [1] - The ship is owned by Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha (K-Line) through its Singapore-based subsidiary K Line Pte Ltd [1] - The vessel was last docked at a port in the Philippines related to a local nickel mining project [1] Group 2: Nickel Ore Details - The "DEVON BAY" was carrying approximately 51,000 tons of nickel ore, with a deadweight tonnage of about 56,000 tons [1] - The price of nickel has been on the rise, with a 12.95% increase in December and a further 12.48% increase as of January 23, 2025, driven by the global commodity price surge [1]