1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic Yunnan rubber - producing area is steadily advancing the tapping process, and new domestic rubber is gradually entering the market. Overseas natural rubber - producing areas are in the low - production season. Recently, the bonded warehouses at Qingdao Port have continued to accumulate inventory, while the general trade warehouses have reduced inventory, resulting in a slight reduction in the total inventory. The arrival of US - dollar standard rubber at the port remains at a low level, and tire enterprises' production has recovered to a high level. They replenish raw materials at low prices, and the outbound volume of general trade warehouses is greater than the inbound volume. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly in the short term. This week, the operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has rebounded slightly. Semi - steel tire enterprises are mainly focused on fulfilling foreign trade orders, and with the tight supply of domestic sales, their capacity utilization rate remains at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire enterprises has increased slightly. Driven by price - increase news, the enterprises' shipments are concentrated, and there is an obvious shortage of goods, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. Entering the end of the quarter, some enterprises are expected to maintain a high operating rate to complete quarterly tasks, but individual enterprises may flexibly adjust production schedules. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 16,500 in the short term, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 310 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,925 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 117,267 lots, a decrease of 9,905 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 60,014 lots, a decrease of 1,123 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,960 lots, an increase of 6,154 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,842 lots, an increase of 136 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 125,440 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 48,787 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 15,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,541 yuan/ton, a decrease of 251 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 616 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 75.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.9 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 70 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.45 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 73.5 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, an increase of 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, an increase of 94,100 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.22%, an increase of 4.32 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 77.71%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.91 days, a decrease of 1.88 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 43.84 days, an increase of 0.74 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, a decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, an increase of 1.29 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 25.05%, an increase of 0.29 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 23.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 29.46%, a decrease of 2.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 29.46%, a decrease of 2.4 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The reason for the year - on - year and month - on - month decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 is mainly the seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival month. As of March 15, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 677,600 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.42%. The bonded area inventory is 121,300 tons, an increase of 1.43%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 0.81%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased by 1.71 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 1.71 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses has increased by 1.37 percentage points, and the outbound rate has increased by 2.22 percentage points. As of March 19, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 79.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.59 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.21%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.31 percentage points [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas enter the seasonal supply off - season with firm raw material prices. After the Spring Festival, the arrival and warehousing volume decreased significantly, but the unexpected increase in rubber prices made downstream enterprises more risk - averse in terms of funds, with only a small amount of replenishment for rigid demand. The total outbound volume remained at a low level. The general trade inventory in Qingdao continued to accumulate, but the accumulation rate narrowed compared with the previous period. The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises rebounded significantly last week, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to recover. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,800 - 17,500, and the nr2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,600 - 14,200 [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 17,245 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 90 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 145 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 105 yuan/ton; the 4 - 5 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 95 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,375 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 15 yuan/ton [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 170,621 lots, with a daily decrease of 3,594 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 31,588 lots, with a daily decrease of 6,492 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 41,368 lots, with a daily decrease of 1,375 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,340 lots, with a daily increase of 524 lots [2] - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 115,070 tons, with a daily increase of 600 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,601 tons, with no daily change [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,950 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 17,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,880 yuan/ton, with no daily change; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,830 yuan/ton, with no daily change [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene rubber BR9000 is 12,600 yuan/ton, with no daily change [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 205 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 1,365 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 14,261 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 54 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 496 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 36 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 72.01 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.12 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 64.05 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 3.16 Thai baht/kg. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue water) is 68.3 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.3 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a daily increase of 0.85 Thai baht/kg [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 13.6 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 6 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 2 US dollars/ton [2] - The monthly import volume of technically - classified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with an increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with an increase of 94,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 29.17%, with a weekly increase of 14.97 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 34.56%, with a weekly increase of 20.32 percentage points [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 47.04 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.82 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 44.09 days, with a weekly decrease of 0.34 days [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.71 million pieces, with a monthly decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 59.68 million pieces, with a monthly increase of 1.29 million pieces [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 24.07%, with a daily decrease of 1.73 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 20.37%, with a daily decrease of 0.65 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.26%, with a daily increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.27%, with a daily increase of 0.34 percentage points [2] Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an about 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 1, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 679,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons, an increase of 1.82%. The bonded area inventory was 118,100 tons, an increase of 6.52%; the general trade inventory was 561,800 tons, an increase of 0.89%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 6.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.39 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 8.75 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.02 percentage points [2] - As of February 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 30.77%, a month - on - month increase of 18.57 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 49.25 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 26.04%, a month - on - month increase of 13.67 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 42.11 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The global natural rubber market is expected to face a supply - demand imbalance for the sixth consecutive year in 2026, with production growth lower than expected due to various factors such as adverse weather, limited replanting, low productivity, and leaf - fall disease [22] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - **RU Natural Rubber**: Prices of RU main contracts and related rubber products fluctuate daily. For example, on 26 - 03 - 02, the RU main 05 contract closed at 16990 points, down 165 points or 0.96% [1] - **NR 20 - number Rubber**: NR main contracts and related products also show price changes. On 26 - 03 - 02, the NR main 05 contract closed at 13735 points, down 125 points or 0.90% [1] - **BR Butadiene Rubber**: BR main contracts and related products have price movements. On 26 - 03 - 02, the BR main 05 contract closed at 12780 points, up 115 points or 0.91% [2] Important Information - **Global Light - vehicle Sales**: In January 2026, global light - vehicle sales dropped due to a significant contraction in the Chinese passenger - car market, with sales in the US, Western Europe, and China all decreasing. The reasons vary by region [2] - **EU Passenger - car Market**: In January 2026, EU passenger - car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 vehicles. The market share of pure - electric vehicles increased, while that of gasoline and diesel vehicles decreased [7] - **US Tire Imports**: In 2025, US tire imports increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased, while those from Thailand increased [12] - **Thai Rubber Exports**: In January 2026, Thai natural rubber and mixed - rubber exports decreased by 10% year - on - year, and exports to China also decreased [17] Logical Analysis - **Macroeconomic Factors**: In January, domestic M1 and M2 growth and the M1 - M2 spread had a slight positive impact on commodities. In February, the ZEW global auto - industry index had a slight negative impact [3][8] - **Inventory Factors**: Inventory changes in rubber contracts, domestic dry - rubber, and tire production lines have different impacts on rubber prices. For example, in January, the inventory of RU contracts in the SHFE increased slightly, while that of NR contracts in the Energy Center decreased slightly [3] - **Production Factors**: ANRPC member countries' production, tire production rates, and natural - rubber production in Thailand all affect the market. For example, in December 2025, ANRPC production decreased year - on - year [13] Trading Strategies - **Unilateral Trading**: Different strategies are proposed for RU and NR main contracts on different dates, such as short - selling a small amount of the RU main 05 contract on 26 - 03 - 02 [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Strategies for arbitrage trading between different contracts are also provided, such as holding the RU2605 - RU2609 spread and adjusting stop - loss levels [13] - **Options Trading**: Generally, the report suggests waiting and seeing for options trading [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and overseas is transitioning from the peak production period to the low - production period, with a shrinking total supply [2]. - Recently, both bonded and general trade warehouses at Qingdao Port have seen inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased month - on - month. With pre - holiday concentrated arrivals of overseas shipments, the total inbound volume continues to increase, while downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - Spring Festival stockpiling. Market purchases are mainly for刚需, and the outbound volume from warehouses continues to decline. It is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate as downstream enterprises gradually go on holiday [2]. - Last week, the production capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises declined, and some enterprises entered the holiday state, dragging down the overall production capacity utilization rate. It is expected that the short - term production capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will further decline. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,900 - 16,600, and the nr2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,000 - 13,500 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 16,335 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 90; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 13,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 80; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 [2]. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,105 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 151,944 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 1,674; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 48,541 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 128 [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,635, with a month - on - month increase of 927; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,125, with a month - on - month decrease of 318. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 112,570 tons, with no change; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 50,803 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 201 [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,500 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 150 [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,200 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 100 [2]. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 13,000 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,800 yuan/ton, with no change [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 10; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,045 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 65 [2]. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,557 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 126; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 327 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 46 [2]. Upstream Situation - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of smoked sheets is 62.07 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.72; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of rubber sheets is 58.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.74 [2]. - The reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of glue is 60 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.7; the reference price of Thai raw rubber in the form of cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 0.85 [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 5 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1 [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 199,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 30,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 396,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 94,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 60.7%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.74 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.76%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.08 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 47.97 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.19 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 45.24 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.54 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 80,000 pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 21.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 17.97%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.11 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 24.85, with a month - on - month increase of 1.29; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24.86%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), basically flat month - on - month compared with December 2025, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 39% compared with 722,000 vehicles in the same period last year [2]. - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and an increase rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory is 99,000 tons, with an increase rate of 1.38%; the general trade inventory is 507,800 tons, with an increase rate of 2.78% [2]. - As of February 4, the production capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 72.09%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.23 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.45 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.45%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 47.20 percentage points [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, and the total supply is shrinking. The overall inventory in Qingdao shows a slight destocking trend, with the bonded warehouse destocking and the general trade warehouse's inventory accumulation narrowing. The demand side shows that the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuates, with the semi - steel tire's capacity utilization increasing slightly and the full - steel tire's decreasing slightly. It is expected that the short - term capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises will run weakly and steadily. The ru2605 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 15,850 - 16,500, and the nr2603 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 12,850 - 13,300 [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,205 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 65 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,085 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 3 - 4 spread of 20 - number rubber is 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,120 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The positions of the main contracts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are 176,097 hands and 49,072 hands respectively, down 5,119 hands and 5,134 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber are - 44,112 and - 9,365 respectively, down 631 and 341 respectively. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 110,470 tons and 55,843 tons respectively, up 600 tons and 504 tons respectively [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,945 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,940 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,100 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 355 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 1,080 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,550 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 465 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 5 US dollars/ton, down 17 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 19.93 million tons, up 3.05 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 39.63 million tons, up 9.41 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 62.62%, down 2.9 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.56%, up 0.17 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 46.8 days, up 0.7 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week are 48.53 days, up 0.61 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.86 million pieces, down 150,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.39 million pieces, up 80,000 pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 16.63%, up 0.16 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.52%, up 0.07 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.92%, up 0.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.92%, up 0.07 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons from the previous period, a decrease of 0.07%. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. As of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a month - on - month increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The rubber market is expected to be slightly bullish in 2026. The annual global natural rubber output in 2026 is expected to increase slightly year - on - year. Although there are still issues such as aging rubber trees in some overseas main producing areas, high prices will stimulate more raw material output, and new producing countries may make up for some losses. However, in the long - term cycle, the global natural rubber production is still in a downward trend, and the increase in 2026 is limited, with a 2% increase compared to 2025 [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The day - trading closing price of the rubber main contract was 15,605 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 217,811 lots, a decrease of 42,429 lots; the open interest was 168,775 lots, a decrease of 6,799 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity was 100,590 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members was 41,079 lots, an increase of 1,004 lots [1]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of spot - futures main contract increased by 65 to - 355; the basis of mixed - futures main contract increased by 65 to - 905; the month - spread of RU05 - RU09 increased by 15 to 60. The outer - market quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 remained unchanged [1]. - **Substitute Products**: The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber increased by 50 yuan/ton to 11,650 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu cis - butadiene rubber remained unchanged at 11,500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao market import rubber market remained unchanged, and the price of African 10 rubber remained unchanged at 1785 US dollars/ton [1]. 3.2 Industry News - From 2021 to 2025, the global natural rubber output decreased from 13.9 million tons to 11.76 million tons, with an overall decrease of 12.03% after an initial increase. In 2021 - 2022, the demand for natural rubber recovered, and the output growth rate was significant; in 2023, factors such as climate change and rubber tree diseases affected the output, with Thailand's output decreasing by about 11% year - on - year, but Cote d'Ivoire's output increased by 15%; in 2024, the global output decreased due to weather interference; in 2025, high - price raw materials stimulated the enthusiasm for tapping, and the global output was higher than that in 2024 [2][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the natural rubber industry is "oscillating", with a trading strategy of "going long" for single - side trading and "waiting and seeing" for arbitrage [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by external macro - disturbances, rubber prices fluctuated widely. Driven by macro - level and fundamental factors in the natural rubber market, rubber prices continued to rise. However, due to the impact of typhoons and heavy rainfall in overseas and domestic production areas, raw material supply was restricted, and processing plants' eagerness to purchase raw materials at higher prices strengthened cost - side support [6]. - Currently, raw material prices have strong support, mid - stream inventories are continuously decreasing, downstream demand remains stable, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved. In the short term, rubber prices may maintain a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. In domestic production areas, raw material prices in Yunnan and Hainan increased. In Thailand, although the northeast had normal supply growth, the south faced supply constraints due to heavy rainfall, and raw material prices rose. In Vietnam, raw material supply was tight due to excessive rainfall, and prices were firm [3]. - **Demand**: Neutral. As of last week, the capacity utilization rates of Chinese all - steel and semi - steel tire sample enterprises decreased slightly. It is expected that the capacity utilization rates will fluctuate slightly in the next period, and some enterprises may reduce production or conduct maintenance in November [3]. - **Inventory**: Bullish. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The warehouse receipt inventory of RU on the SHFE decreased, while that of 20 - number rubber increased [3]. - **Basis/Spread**: Bullish. After the holiday, the spread between RU and mixed rubber widened, and the spread between the main contracts of RU and NR also widened [3]. - **Profit**: Bullish. The theoretical production profit of Thai standard rubber and domestic concentrated latex narrowed, while the loss of the delivery profit of Yunnan whole - milk latex improved [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. The current absolute price is at a moderately high level, and the overall valuation is at a medium level [3]. - **Commodity Market**: Neutral. The suspension of relevant Sino - US tariff policies has reduced previous negative disturbances, and the sentiment in the commodity market has improved [3]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Futures Market**: Affected by macro and fundamental factors, rubber prices continued to rise. As of October 31, the RU main contract closed at 15,085 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 250 yuan/ton (-1.63%), and the 20 - number rubber main contract closed at 12,230 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 275 yuan/ton (-2.20%) [6]. - **Spot Market**: Spot prices rebounded and rose [9]. - **Position**: RU positions were low, and NR positions decreased. The spread between RU and NR widened [17][24][31]. 3.3 Rubber Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production Area Weather**: Rainfall in production areas caused disturbances, affecting raw material supply [40]. - **Main Producing Countries' Output**: In August, the cumulative output of ANRPC was 6.855 million tons (+1.76%) [63]. - **Main Producing Countries' Exports**: In August, the cumulative export volume of ANRPC was 6.325 million tons (+4.25%) [73]. - **China's Imports**: From January to September, China imported 4.7172 million tons of natural rubber (+19.65%). In September, the import volume increased significantly, and Thailand was the largest source country [86][92][99]. - **Mid - stream Inventory**: China's social inventory continued to decline. As of October 26, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber was 1.0389 million tons, a decline of 1% [100][108]. - **Downstream Tire Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises remained stable. As of last week, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, and that of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%. It is expected to fluctuate slightly in the next period [109][117]. - **Downstream Tire Inventory**: Tire inventories in Shandong decreased slightly [118]. - **Automobiles and Heavy Trucks**: In September, the growth rate of automobile sales expanded, and in August, heavy - truck sales increased significantly year - on - year [126][136]. - **Tire Exports**: From January to September, China exported 7.28 million tons of rubber tires (+5%) [137][145]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production profit of Thai standard rubber decreased, and the delivery profit of whole - milk latex was in a loss state [147]. - **Futures - Spot Spread**: The spread between Thai standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber declined [168].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. Overseas supply arriving at the port has decreased, while downstream tire companies have a positive purchasing sentiment, leading to better-than-expected warehouse shipments. [2] - Last week, the domestic tire production capacity utilization rate increased. However, this week, the production capacity utilization rate of tire companies may slightly decline due to factors such as high - temperature weather and limited overall order increments. [2] - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,800 - 16,200 yuan/ton in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,000 yuan/ton in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,885 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,790 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. [2] - The 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber was - 90 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 10 - 11 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,095 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. [2] - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 139,114 lots, an increase of 6,184 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 58,896 lots, an increase of 1,690 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 32,299 lots, an increase of 232 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 8,345 lots, a decrease of 1,124 lots. [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 177,290 tons, a decrease of 470 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber were 44,352 tons. [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Thai STR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the price of Malaysian SMR20 was 1,840 US dollars/ton, an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 was 12,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's butadiene rubber BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 935 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 1,055 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,058 yuan/ton, an increase of 185 yuan/ton; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 268 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton. [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheets was 62.3 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.75 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber films was 58.33 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.73 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue was 55.25 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.25 Thai baht/kg; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump was 49.85 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.35 Thai baht/kg. [2] - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 235 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19.2 US dollars/ton; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 37.8 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.6 US dollars/ton. [2] - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, a decrease of 21,300 tons. [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.76%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points. [2] - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 39.76 days, an increase of 0.25 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week were 47.05 days, an increase of 0.32 days. [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.01%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 17.69%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.78%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.8%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points. [2] Industry News - From August 24th to 30th, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator were mainly concentrated in northern Vietnam, Laos, and southern Myanmar, which increased the impact on rubber tapping. The red areas south of the equator were mainly in western Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and the rainfall in most other areas was low, slightly reducing the impact on rubber tapping. [2] - As of August 24th, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 606,200 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons or 1.71% compared with the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 73,300 tons, a decrease of 4.70%; the general trade inventory was 532,900 tons, a decrease of 1.28%. [2] - As of August 21st, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 71.87%, a month - on - month increase of 2.76 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.81 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.97%, a month - on - month increase of 2.35 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.01 percentage points. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term forecast for the ru2601 contract is to fluctuate between 15,600 - 16,200, and for the nr2510 contract, it is expected to fluctuate between 12,600 - 13,000. As maintenance - affected enterprises resume operations, there is still a small upward space for production capacity utilization, but the current overall order performance is average, and enterprises' production control will continue, which will limit the increase in overall production capacity utilization [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15,820 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 1,035 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread is - 75 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,170 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 133,455 lots, down 1,052 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 58,494 lots, up 710 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 37,125 lots, down 1,030 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 7,931 lots, down 477 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 179,590 tons, down 340 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 46,469 tons, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,800 yuan/ton. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,815 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,650 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,600 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 920 yuan/ton, up 235 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1,255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,918 yuan/ton, up 184 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 268 yuan/ton, up 244 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 63.15 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 59.25 Thai baht/kg, up 0.35 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 54.2 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup rubber) is 49.8 Thai baht/kg, unchanged [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 215.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.8 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 33.2 US dollars/ton, down 8.8 US dollars [2]. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 120,900 tons, down 27,300 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 280,800 tons, up 58,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.09%, up 2.09 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 72.07%, down 2.28 percentage points [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 39.51 days, up 0.14 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.73 days, up 0.28 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.75 million pieces, up 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 56.97 million pieces, up 1.74 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 21.81%, up 0.57 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.88%, up 0.23 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 23.19%, up 0.73 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 23.19%, up 0.74 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From August 17th to August 23rd, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. The red areas north of the equator are mainly in southern Myanmar and southern Cambodia, with low precipitation in most other areas, reducing the impact on tapping. The red areas south of the equator are mainly in eastern Malaysia and eastern Indonesia, and most other areas have medium rainfall, also reducing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 17, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.50%. The bonded area inventory was 76,900 tons, an increase of 2.12%; the general trade inventory was 539,800 tons, a decrease of 0.87%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 2.46 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.64 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.12 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points [2]. - As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.11%, a decrease of 0.60 percentage points from the previous period and a decrease of 10.55 percentage points year - on - year; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.62%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 3.69 percentage points year - on - year [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The natural rubber market is expected to experience weak consolidation in the short term. The supply from the main producing areas is increasing, leading to a continuous decline in raw material prices and a weakening of cost support. Terminal demand is weak, with low operating rates, providing limited support for rubber prices. Additionally, after the digestion and adjustment of macro - sentiment, the market's bearish sentiment is rising [82][83]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - ANRPC's June 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in June will decrease by 1.5% to 1191000 tons, while consumption will increase by 0.7% to 1271000 tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production is expected to decline by 1.1% to 6076000 tons, and cumulative consumption will increase by 1% to 7715000 tons. In 2025, global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14892000 tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 1.3% to 15565000 tons. The natural rubber price showed a bearish trend in June due to improved supply in major producing areas, rising port inventories, and uncertainties brought by trade tariffs [5]. - In the second quarter of 2025, the sales volume of the European replacement tire market decreased by 3.5% year - on - year to 57044000 pieces. Except for the motorcycle and scooter tire segments, the sales volume of various tire categories was lower than that in the first half of 2019 [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2257000 tons, and exports to China increased by 35% year - on - year to 1423000 tons [7]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets experienced significant pullbacks. On August 1, 2025, the closing prices of RU2509, NR2509, Singapore TSR20:2509, and Tokyo RSS3:2509 decreased by 8.18%, 8.60%, 8.11%, and 4.57% respectively compared to the previous period [10][11]. Price Differences - The price differences between RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 narrowed. For example, on August 1, 2025, the price difference of RU09 - NR09 was 2135 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.74% [23][24]. - This week, the import rubber market's offer prices declined. The price differences between imported rubber and RU showed different trends. For example, the price difference between Thai mixed rubber and RU was - 260 yuan/ton on August 1, 2025, with a month - on - month increase of 46.39% [26][27]. - The price difference between whole - milk and Thai mixed rubber decreased, while the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber increased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between 3L and Thai mixed rubber was 450 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 200% [32][33]. - The price differences between synthetic rubber and RU narrowed. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between butadiene rubber and RU was - 2710 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 19.94% [35][36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared to the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR decreased rapidly, and the settled funds also decreased rapidly. On August 1, 2025, the virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was 4.75, with a month - on - month decrease of 32.01% [38][39]. Fundamental Data Supply - In the Thai production area, the temperature and rainfall in the southern part increased significantly. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was at a high level compared to the same period [42][44]. - Due to the fading of macro - sentiment, the prices of rubber futures and spot goods declined, and raw material prices also followed suit. However, due to more rainfall in Yunnan recently, raw material prices remained relatively firm. On August 1, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 47.4 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.20% [47][48]. - The price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber increased, and the price difference between Hainan glue entering the concentrated latex factory and the whole - milk factory first increased and then decreased. On August 1, 2025, the price difference between Thai glue and cup rubber was 6.6 Thai baht/kg, with a month - on - month increase of 24.53% [55][56]. - As the decline of raw materials was smaller than that of finished products, the overall processing profit decreased. On August 1, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was - 111 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 202.78% [58][59]. - In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [62][63]. Demand - During the cycle, some tire enterprises arranged maintenance at the end of the month, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. At the end of the month, the overall shipment of enterprises was concentrated, and the finished product inventory decreased. On August 1, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires were 59.26% and 69.98% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 4.77% and 0.11% [66][67]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The sales volume of passenger cars maintained high growth, and the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [70][71]. Inventory - This week, China's natural rubber inventory increased slightly, with a decrease in light - colored rubber inventory and an increase in dark - colored rubber inventory. On July 25, 2025, the dark - colored rubber inventory was 804900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17% [73][75]. - The futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai International Energy Exchange showed different trends. On August 1, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 177600 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41% [78][79]. This Week's Viewpoint Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is weak consolidation. The supply in the producing areas continues to increase, raw material prices are falling, and cost support is weakening. Terminal demand is weak, and the operating rate is low, providing limited support for rubber prices. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to be weakly consolidated in the short term [82][83].