Core Insights - The article highlights the integration of technology and services in the futures market, particularly through the "Qizhi Hui" platform, which enhances the hedging experience for enterprises [1][2][3] Group 1: Technology and Innovation - The "Qizhi Hui" platform utilizes advanced technology to provide clear market insights and facilitate effective hedging strategies for enterprises [1] - The platform supports intelligent hedging, allowing for automatic plan generation, simulation backtesting, and project evaluation [1] - The digital transformation in the futures market is driven by the need for better tools and professional support for enterprises [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Risk Management - Enterprises face challenges in hedging due to a lack of suitable tools and professional support, which the "Qizhi Hui" platform aims to address [2] - The use of out-of-the-market options as a hedging tool provides flexibility and helps enterprises manage risks associated with price fluctuations in raw materials [2] - The implementation of out-of-the-market options allows enterprises to lock in procurement costs while benefiting from price increases, thus stabilizing operations in volatile markets [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The company aims to continue enhancing services for the real economy by promoting the use of digital futures tools among more enterprises [3] - The focus is on developing personalized hedging solutions that align closely with enterprise needs, leveraging the flexibility of out-of-the-market options [3] - The goal is to support the stable development of industrial enterprises through professional financial services and precise risk management [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Monthly Report: Supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, focus on low-buying opportunities [1] - Report Date: August 29, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team [2] Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - For plastics, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent. With limited further negative supply factors and improving demand from the agricultural film sector, the spot price is likely to rise and difficult to fall. Attention should be paid to low-buying opportunities [3]. - For PP, due to insufficient existing maintenance and new capacity release, the output continues to reach new highs. The industry's weak outlook restricts the rebound height. Attention should be paid to changes in macro policies and warehouse receipts [6]. Summary by Sections Plastic Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the Wenhua Chemical Index closed with three consecutive positive candles. Olefins were weaker than chemicals, but plastics were relatively resistant to decline in the olefin sector. The L2601 fluctuated in the range of 7,243 - 7,455, with an amplitude of 212 points. The monthly closing price was 7,287, down 112 points from the previous month [11]. - **Basis and Position**: In the first half of August, the basis of North China 09 contract was repaired to near par. After the main contract shifted to 01 on August 15, the main contract was at a premium to the spot again. The position of the 01 contract remained around 400,000 lots, similar to the same period last year [13]. - **Spread Analysis**: The difference between September and January contracts of plastics changed little. With the arrival of the peak season in September and the low 1 - 5 spread, it is recommended to consider positive arbitrage opportunities based on the strength of the downstream peak season. The LP spread continued to widen in August, and the long LP01 position should be held [15][17]. Plastic Supply - **Production**: This week's PE output was 620,000 tons (down 43,000 tons week-on-week), ending a six - week upward trend. The capacity utilization rate was 79%. From January to week 34, the cumulative year - on - year output growth rates of PE, LL, HD, and LD were +18%, 28%, 10%, and 15% respectively. The supply pressure of LD eased, while that of HD increased [20]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, 5.43 million tons of new devices are planned to be put into production. As of now, 3.43 million tons have been put into operation. The remaining Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons) is planned to be put into production in October, and Exxon's (500,000 tons) non - standard device is expected to be put into operation in September [20]. - **Import and Export**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import volume was 8.03 million tons (up 2.5% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 610,000 tons (up 21% year - on - year) [22]. Plastic Demand - **Domestic Demand**: This week, the downstream PE operating rate was 40% (up 0.3 percentage points month - on - month), and the agricultural film operating rate improved for six consecutive weeks. From January to July, the apparent PE consumption was 26.29 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 12.5% [25]. - **Exports**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative export value of plastics and products was $83.1 billion (up 1.2% year - on - year), and the proportion of exports to the US was 14% [27]. Plastic Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: This week, the enterprise inventory decreased to 427,000 tons (down 75,000 tons week - on - week), and the enterprise inventory pressure eased. The social inventory was 560,000 tons (up 5,500 tons week - on - week). The current inventory pressure in the industrial chain is not large, and the downstream raw material inventory remains at a relatively low level [30]. Plastic Profit - The current weighted gross profit of LL is at a neutral level compared to the same period, and the cost drive is not strong [33]. PP Market Review - **Price Movement**: In August, the PP price showed a unilateral decline. The PP2601 fluctuated in the range of 6,967 - 7,163, with an amplitude of 196 points. The final closing price was 6,974, down 140 points from the previous month [36]. - **Spread Analysis**: Affected by profit pressure and the leap month, the peak season started slowly this year, and downstream orders remained weak. The 9 - 1 spread of PP continued the reverse arbitrage trend in August, and the 1 - 5 spread is expected to continue the reverse arbitrage trend [41]. - **Arbitrage**: The MTO disk profit is slowly recovering [42]. PP Supply - **Production**: This week, the PP output was 810,000 tons (up 23,000 tons week - on - week), increasing for four consecutive weeks. The total estimated output of polypropylene in China next week is 813,000 tons, continuing the upward trend [45]. - **Cost and Profit**: The current weighted gross profit of PP remains at a relatively high level compared to the same period. The PDH gross profit has significantly recovered, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to increase [46]. PP Import and Export - From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import volume was 1.92 million tons (down 8% year - on - year), and the cumulative export volume was 1.83 million tons (up 29% year - on - year). In July, PP became a net importer. It is expected to become a net exporter again in the future [51]. PP Demand - The downstream operating rate of PP remains at around 50%. From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was 13.3% [52]. PP Inventory - The inventory of enterprises and traders is being reduced from a high level [53]. Strategies - **Plastic Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Try to buy at low prices. Focus on the range of [7,250 - 7,500] for L2601 [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage position [5]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [5]. - **PP Strategies** - **Unilateral**: The valuation is low but the upward drive is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is advisable to wait and see. Focus on the range of [6,900 - 7,150] for PP2601 [8]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold the long LP01 position [8]. - **Hedging**: Since the basis is at a low level compared to the same period, sell - hedging can be considered [7].

Risk Management - The author expresses concern about the risks associated with hedging strategies in initial public offerings (IPOs), specifically mentioning "套保pump打新" (hedging pump IPOs) and the potential for significant losses [1] - The author's reluctance to engage in strategies like "spk-yt套保" suggests a general aversion to complex or high-risk hedging activities [1] Market Opinion - The author questions whether those who engaged in hedging pump IPOs are now experiencing regret ("一身冷汗"), implying that these strategies may not have been successful [1] - The author suggests that negative experiences are valuable lessons, implying that those who haven't suffered losses from such strategies may face greater consequences in the future [1]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polyolefins: Peak Seasons Are Gradually Starting, Try to Go Long on Dips [1] Report Date - August 24, 2025 [2] Report Core View - The fundamentals of polyolefins have improved recently, with demand for agricultural films entering the peak season and inventory pressure not significant. It is recommended to go long on dips [4][6][8][9] Key Points by Section 1. L2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the L2601 contract fluctuated widely between 7243 and 7413, with a 2 - week consecutive positive weekly line. It closed at 7380, up 29 points or 0.4% from last week [3] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 390,000 lots (weekly increase of 75,000), and the North China basis was - 140 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 69) [15][18] - **Supply**: This week's PE production was 620,000 tons (weekly decrease of 43,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to increase by 23,000 tons [27] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PE import was 8.03 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%) [30] - **Demand**: The downstream capacity utilization rate was 40%, with a continuous 4 - week improvement. The agricultural film operating rate was 14.5% (weekly increase of 0.7pct), with a continuous 5 - week improvement [33][36] - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory was 500,000 tons (weekly increase of 60,000), and the social inventory was 560,000 tons (weekly decrease of 12,000), with continuous 6 - week destocking [41] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7350 - 7550]; Arbitrage: Hold the long LP01 arbitrage; Hedging: Industrial customers can choose the opportunity to sell - hedge [6] 2. PP2601 Contract Review and Outlook - **Market Performance**: This week, the PP2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6970 and 7081, with a 4 - week consecutive negative weekly line. It closed at 7038, down 46 points or 0.6% from last week [7] - **Position and Basis**: As of Friday, the position was 470,000 lots (weekly increase of 100,000), and the East China basis was - 33 yuan/ton (weekly decrease of 32) [53][56] - **Supply**: This week's PP production was 780,000 tons (weekly increase of 3,000 tons), and next week's production is expected to rise to 795,000 tons [61] - **Import**: From January to July 2025, the cumulative PP import was 1.92 million tons (year - on - year decrease of 8%), and the export was 1.83 million tons (year - on - year increase of 29%) [63] - **Demand**: The PP downstream operating rate was 50%, with a continuous 4 - week marginal improvement. From January to June 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption was 19.49 million tons (cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.6%) [69] - **Inventory**: This week's total commercial inventory was 800,000 tons (weekly decrease of 25,000), with continuous 2 - week destocking [72] - **Strategy**: Unilateral: Go long on dips, focusing on the range of [7000 - 7200]; Arbitrage: Wait and see mainly [9] 3. Propylene Market Review - **Market Performance**: This week, the PL2601 contract fluctuated widely between 6360 and 6529 and closed at 6470 [79] - **Price**: As of Friday, the Shandong propylene market price was 6300 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 95) [83] - **Supply**: This week's propylene production was 1.18 million tons (weekly increase of 14,000), and the in - plant inventory increased continuously [86] - **Demand**: The downstream comprehensive operating rate improved marginally [89]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges faced by real enterprises in the context of escalating geopolitical conflicts and volatile commodity prices, emphasizing the need for effective risk management through futures markets [1][2]. Group 1: Challenges Faced by Real Enterprises - Real enterprises are currently facing three core challenges: supply chain security and cost pressure due to geopolitical conflicts, weak market demand and intensified competition, and the need for technological upgrades amidst a talent shortage [1][2]. - The geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Middle East tensions, have led to increased procurement costs and inventory management difficulties for enterprises [1]. - Traditional markets are experiencing slow growth and severe homogenization, resulting in low profit margins for enterprises [1]. - Enterprises need to invest in R&D in areas like AI and quantum computing, but many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) struggle with high R&D costs and lack of skilled personnel [1][2]. Group 2: Bottlenecks in Utilizing Futures Tools - There are six major bottlenecks preventing enterprises from effectively using futures tools: insufficient talent reserves, lack of internal training mechanisms, limited funding and risk control capabilities, inadequate risk management systems, insufficient market liquidity and product matching, and challenges in managing basis risk [2][3]. - Many enterprises lack professionals familiar with futures hedging strategies and contract design, which complicates their ability to implement effective risk management [2]. - The absence of a systematic training framework leads to a misunderstanding of futures tools as merely speculative instruments [2][3]. Group 3: Expectations from the Futures Industry - Enterprises expect the futures industry to provide product innovation and customized services, such as industry-specific contracts and the development of off-exchange derivative tools [3][4]. - There is a call for the establishment of training systems to enhance the comprehensive application capabilities of enterprises regarding futures tools [3][4]. - The optimization of market infrastructure and the expansion of delivery warehouse coverage are also seen as necessary steps to reduce delivery costs for enterprises [3][4]. Group 4: Innovative Strategies for Risk Management - The company has introduced innovative strategies such as a "futures + options" combination strategy and a dual-track inventory management mechanism to help enterprises manage risks effectively [3][4]. - For example, in the lithium carbonate market, the company utilizes a pricing model that integrates cost, profit, inventory, and basis to help enterprises mitigate price volatility risks [3][4][5]. - The dual-track inventory management allows enterprises to adjust their inventory ratios based on market price expectations, optimizing inventory management and cost control [5][6]. Group 5: Addressing the "Generalization" Dilemma - The futures market currently faces challenges in accurately matching the specific needs of various industries due to a tendency towards "generalization" in product coverage and tool design [6][7]. - There is a notable lack of specific futures products for critical raw materials in the new energy sector, which forces enterprises to rely on indirect hedging methods, leading to inefficiencies [6][7]. - The company suggests expanding the variety of futures products and optimizing contract designs to better serve the needs of SMEs and specific industries [6][7][8].

Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel opened at 119,900 yuan/ton and closed at 120,550 yuan/ton, a change of 0.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 131,554 lots, and the open interest was 54,128 lots [1]. - The main contract 2508 of Shanghai nickel fluctuated upward, closing with a positive candlestick. The trading volume increased significantly compared to the previous trading day, while the open interest decreased. The red column area of the daily MACD continued to narrow, approaching the edge of turning green, indicating a short - term correction demand. There was a bottom divergence at around 117,000 on June 23, and it is estimated that the 117,000 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [1]. - In the spot market, the morning quotation of Jinchuan nickel was raised by 1,650 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the quotations of mainstream brands all increased. The refined nickel futures market entered a sideways phase, with increasing downward pressure. The overall spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the supply glut pattern remained unchanged. Although the premium had declined recently, it was still at a high level, so the spot price supported the futures price. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by - 50 yuan/ton to 2,000 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remained unchanged at 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was - 450 yuan/ton [1]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 21,049 (- 506.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,288 (708) tons [1]. Strategy - The spot trading of refined nickel has been relatively sluggish recently, and the supply glut pattern remains. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 122,000 - 123,000, and the lower limit is around 117,000 - 118,000. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [2]. - Unilateral: Mainly operate within the range; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 16, 2025, the main contract 2508 of stainless steel opened at 12,685 yuan/ton and closed at 12,670 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,703 lots, and the open interest was 100,817 lots [2]. - The main contract of stainless steel rose and then fell again, closing with a small negative candlestick. Affected by the contract switch, the trading volume and open interest of the 09 contract increased compared to the previous trading day. The expansion speed of the red column area of the daily MACD slowed down, and the negative candlestick covering the positive candlestick last Friday indicated pressure above the 40 - day moving average. It is considered that there are two pressure levels at around 12,700 and 13,100. There was a bottom divergence at around 12,400 on June 24, so it is estimated that the 12,400 level is a strong support level in the medium and long term [3]. - In the spot market, most merchants in the Foshan market raised their quotations by 50 yuan/ton in the morning, but many reduced prices to boost sales in the afternoon. The spot trading volume did not recover well, and market confidence remained insufficient. According to Mysteel, the nickel - iron market quotation decreased compared to the previous trading day, with most sellers' quotations at 905 yuan/nickel (delivered to the factory, tax - included). It is expected that the nickel - iron price will be weak in the short term. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 12,750 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was between 110 and 310 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 900.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The daily line of the stainless steel main contract formed a bottom divergence structure at 12,400. Wait for it to stand firm above the 40 - day moving average pressure level. It is estimated that the upper limit of the recent range is between 13,000 - 13,100, and the lower limit is around 12,400 - 12,500. Short - term operations are recommended to be postponed, and the medium - and long - term strategy is to sell on rallies for hedging [5]. - Unilateral: Neutral; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [5]

Market Trends & Activities - Timefun recently invited Ansem for live streaming, indicating increased activity [1] - The market is observing slight movements in $toly and $Kawz, tokens held for nearly three months, with potential for upward momentum [1] - "Pump" projects in the BG market are showing positive results, offering broad participation opportunities [1] Investment & Risk - Users are participating in BG activities, potentially through scheduled participation, but face uncertainty regarding successful entry [1] - Participants are using hedging strategies, but face potential losses if they fail to secure participation [1] - The value of a 20U coupon is perceived as challenging [1]

Risk Management - The most reliable strategy for public funds is to hedge after a successful spot purchase [1] - Unexpected technical errors can pose significant risks, even with calculated risk management [1] - Limiting position size is crucial for preventing substantial losses [1] - Regular withdrawals are recommended as a risk mitigation strategy [1] Trading Platform Issues - Bybit exchange displayed a successful purchase confirmation despite underlying issues [1] - Users experienced losses on both spot purchases and corresponding short positions due to platform errors [1] - A user expressed frustration and demanded compensation from Bybit due to financial losses [1]

Market Sentiment - Speculation suggests funds are anticipating a pump event, leading to less active on-chain activity [1] - The user expresses hope for reasonable funding rates during the 48-hour lock-up period to avoid price spread erosion by long positions [1] Trading Strategy - The user has hedged, covering 70% of their intended position, accepting a 30% price difference, viewing the spread profit as offsetting presale costs [1] - The user bought $kolscan, anticipating it will benefit from the pump's official acquisition announcement [1] Risk Management - The user acknowledges potential losses if the intended position isn't executed despite hedging [1]

Market Risk - Traditional markets often see futures squeezes where longs typically win due to the inherent disadvantages faced by shorts, as margin requirements increase exponentially with rising prices [1] - In the crypto space, extreme price discrepancies can occur, leading to potential losses for arbitrageurs, similar to the TRB incident where significant price differences between exchanges resulted in substantial financial setbacks [1] - Low liquidity and large holdings in the crypto market can trigger cascading liquidations, potentially causing flash crashes and significant losses for traders who are unable to react quickly [1][2] Risk Management - While hedging is possible, it's crucial to avoid overly passive positions, even with seemingly safe strategies like 1x hedging [1] - Cascading liquidations can lead to substantial financial losses, potentially wiping out entire positions overnight [2]