★特朗普：如果伊朗继续发展弹道导弹，支持对伊朗发动打击；如果伊朗发展核武器，支持对伊朗发动快速 打击。 ★俄乌局势：①俄称91架鸟无人机袭击普京官邸，特朗普：对此很生气。乌方否认："纯属捏造"。②泽连 斯基：曾向特朗普请求长达50年的安全保障，希望乌克兰能在和平计划签署的同时获得安全保证。扎波罗热 核电站和领土问题在20点计划中仍未得到解决。③克宫:目前未讨论普京与泽连斯基通话的事宜。预计普京 与特朗普的通话很快就会举行。④俄武装力量总参谋长：俄军队正在成功地深入乌式装部队的防御圈。12月 俄军推进速度是近一年来最快的。⑤普京指示继续推进在苏梅州和哈尔科夫州建立安全区的工作,目标是在 2026年完成。普京称,有必要继续行动,以夺取对扎波罗热市的控制权。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 | 111 | 国校期货 | | | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月30日 | | 黄金 | 女女女 | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | 文文文 | | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月30日 (原油) 周一原油有所反弹，因周末美乌会晤关键问题未解决。乌克兰28日深夜至29日凌晨袭击俄总统普京 位于俄西北部诺夫哥罗德州的官邸,俄方称将予以还击。市场预期短期难以停火,冲突持续将制约 俄原油生产与出口能力。沙特在也门的空袭让供应受干扰的消息持续发酵。她缘冲突消息不断，为 油价带来阶段性地缘溢价。 【责金属】 上周发改委发文提及对氧化铝等强资源约束型产业强化管理，但政策指导落地还需要时间。氧化铝 平衡持续处于显著过刺，随着铝土矿价格回落成本有下降空间，现金成本核算仍有利润。短期氧化 铝价格接近触发减产，跌势放缓，多空博弈加剧放大盘面波动，但中期企稳还需等待规模减产形 【锌】 TC继续回落,炼厂减产延续,SMM锌社库环比下滑1.3万吨至11.19万吨，比价不利于锌锭进口,供 应端压力减弱，但消费处淡季，叠加元旦假期临近，资金短线交投为主，沪锌缺乏方向性驱动，反 复测试2.3万整数关。2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，追求"开门红"预期下，市场对1月锌消费 暂不悲观，沪锌2.28-2.38万元/吨区间震荡。 隔夜贵金属 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows complex trends, with different commodities and financial products having their own characteristics. Some are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, some by geopolitical factors, and others by macro - economic policies and seasonal factors. The market rhythm switches quickly, and most products are in a state of oscillation, with different potential investment opportunities and risks [2][3][14] - Different industries have different outlooks. For example, some industries like polycrystalline silicon and manganese silicon are expected to have a relatively positive trend, while others such as urea and PVC may face certain challenges in supply - demand balance and price trends [13][18][28] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Precious Metals**: International gold prices continued a moderate upward trend after the breakthrough, while silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their rise, with a gain of over 10%. The Fed's easing prospects and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The spot shortage expectation makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds, and the gold - silver ratio has dropped significantly below the average. However, exchange restrictions are frequent, and market volatility is extremely high [2] - **Copper**: Copper prices continued to rise strongly last Friday. The Shanghai copper weighted reached a maximum of 102,700 yuan, and it is expected that the London copper will open at $12,700 - $12,800. The market has quickly reached the bullish targets of most overseas institutions for 2026. The target price of the copper market is raised, with the London copper at about $13,100 and the Shanghai copper at about 104,000 yuan [3] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market's fundamentals are neutral, with poor apparent demand and spot feedback. Shanghai aluminum mainly followed the upward trend, with relatively mild fluctuations. Long - positions should be held with the 40 - day moving average as the support [4] - **Zinc**: In late December, domestic smelter overhauls increased, supporting the adjustment of Shanghai zinc above the annual line. In January, the pressure on the zinc ingot supply side is small, and with the late Spring Festival in 2026 and the expected good start, the consumption side is not pessimistic. Shanghai zinc is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is mainly affected by geopolitical factors, with the shipping rhythm in the Middle East and Russia slowing down. The demand side may be boosted by improved refinery profits and the US blockade of Venezuelan oil exports. Singapore's inventory continues to accumulate, and the high - inventory pressure is still significant. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is dominated by overseas refinery starts. The demand side of ship fuel consumption is continuously weak due to high - sulfur substitution [21] - **Asphalt**: Since December, the weekly shipment volume has remained below 400,000 tons, at a low level in the same period of the past four years. Last week, both social and factory inventories increased. The supply - demand of BU is marginally relaxed, but positive news has a significant boost. However, it will eventually return to the price - pressured pattern dominated by supply - demand relaxation [22] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Bean Meal**: CBOT soybeans oscillated downward after reopening last Friday, and Dalian soybean meal rose first and then fell. In the future, attention should be paid to the specific export situation of US soybeans and whether the La Nina weather in South America can have a continuous impact [35] - **Cotton**: US cotton rebounded from a low level last week, and the weekly signing data improved, with increased Chinese purchases. Domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose continuously, and the market is bullish. Although this year's new cotton production has increased significantly, the commercial inventory is basically the same as the previous year, and the sales progress is relatively fast [42] Others - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day, the broader market oscillated with heavy volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded an 8 - day consecutive gain. All major futures index contracts closed higher, with IC leading the gain. Industrial profits of large - scale enterprises from January to November showed a growth trend, and the RMB exchange rate broke "7" last week [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: On December 26, 2025, the 30 - year treasury bond futures had the largest increase of 0.36%. In December, the central bank's net MLF injection was 10 billion yuan, a consecutive tenth - month incremental renewal. Against the background of increased counter - cyclical adjustment policies, long - term interest rates have risen significantly recently [48]

| 国夜期货 | | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月26日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 今日外盘圣诞节休市结束后延续强势，国际金价再创历史新高，白银首次突破75美元/盎司。近期美联储宽 松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属表现,各品种陆续刷新新高形成共振实破行情，短期市场波动率放大，注意 仓位控制。 多头资金继续流入铂把，铂全合约涨停，包价上修，铂市资金流入超30亿，沉淀资金超90亿；肥市资金流入 20亿,沉淀资金超42亿。2026年预期街延续供不应求 ...

综合晨报 2025年12月26日 【原油】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 昨日外盘因圣诞假期休市，内盘油价震荡运行。俄罗斯黑海港口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度 缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动 虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量仍维持在年内高位。美委地缘冲突一 度引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,她缘犹动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动 力,警惕市场交易焦点由地缘局势升级切换至由远期供需宽松格局所主导的"价格中枢下移"这一 核心逻辑。 【责金属】 隔夜外盘圣诞节休市,国内金银延续偏强趋势,广期所调整街翘最小开仓数量和交易限额规则。迈 期美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，各品种陆续刷新新高形成共振突破行情，短期市 场波动率放大,注意仓位控制。 【铜】 隔夜沪铜夜盘高开,短线拉涨到9.8万。强调国内现货背离信号转强,沪粤贴水分别扩至330、185 元，SMM社库增加2.52万吨至19.36万吨。短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡 季下,原料紧张可能向国内精铜传导,且价差利 ...

★日本央行行长植田和男暗示明年可能进一步加息,并表示对央行实现可持续物价目标的信心正在增 强。随年资增长,实现2%物价稳定目标的时机正在稳步临近,"植田周四在商业游说团体"经团联"主办的 会议上表示，"近年来,随着劳动力市场趋紧,企业在设定工资和价格方面的行为模式已发生显著转变。" | >国技期货 | | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年12月25日 | | 黄金 | ★☆☆ | 白银 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | | な女女 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 近期美联储宽松前景以及美委、伊以等地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，各品种陆续刷新新 ...

【原油】 继美国接连扣押油轮后,目前委内瑞拉海域有十余艘满载油轮正等待船东的新指示。俄罗斯黑海塔 口码头遇袭，恶劣天气导致维修进度缓慢，哈萨克斯坦12月CPC混合原油出口将降至14个月最低水 平。美国页岩油行业钻井与压裂活动虽降至数年新低，然而由于产量调整存在时滞，美国原油产量 仍维持在年内高位。她缘冲突多发引发市场对原油供应中断担忧,然基本面宽松主基调未改,地缘 扰动更倾向于提供阶段性反弹动力。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属略有回落。近期美联储宽松前景以及美委、伊以等地缘风险支撑贵金属强势，各品种陆 续刷新新高形成共振突破行情，情绪元奋推涨。圣诞节假期外盘休市，短期急涨后市场波动将放 大，注意仓位控制。 【铜】 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月25日 隔夜铜价震幅扩大，沪铜加权减仓，海外资金圣诞休市。国内现货背离加大，昨日上海铜贴水扩至 310元，短线国内现货供求给予铜价更大调整压力。但同时需求淡季下，原料紧张可能向国内精铜传 导，且价差利于出口。一季度合约多配需求持续性强，前期多单持有依托位上调到9.4万，同时建议 设置主动止盈位。 【铝】 隔夜沪铝回落。铝市 ...