尿素出口政策

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大越期货尿素早报-20250915
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:37
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-15 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号: Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述: • 1. 基本面:近期尿素盘面震荡回落。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置,库存整体 高位。需求端,工业需求中复合肥开工回升,三聚氰胺开工中性,农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素 整体供过于求仍明显,出口利润仍较高,出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1780(+20),基本 面整体偏空; • 2. 基差: UR2601合约基差117,升贴水比例6.6%,偏多; • 3. 库存:UR综合库存141万吨(+0.8),偏空; • 4. 盘面: UR主力合约20日均线向下,收盘价位于20日线下,偏空; • 5. 主力持仓:UR主力持仓净多,增多,偏多; • 6. 预期:尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱,国际尿素价格偏强,出口 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20250905
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 02:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is at a moderate level, while agricultural demand is limited. Although the export profit is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is strong, and the urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently declined after a previous increase due to rumors of export liberalization. Current daily production and operating rates are still high, and inventory is at a high level overall. The domestic urea market remains in a significant oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price, non - over - expected export policy liberalization, and a significant domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1780 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1790 (0), and the FOB China price is 3031 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1714 (0), the basis is 66 (-10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1753 (-4), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1664 (6) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7928 (723), the UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), the UR manufacturer inventory is 85.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.3 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also generally shown an upward trend, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].
尿素月报:出口提振但内需偏弱,价格承压运行-20250902
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 02:24
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of urea is likely to decline but the downside space is limited, with support at the 1700 price level. The reasons include high domestic production and operation rates, weak domestic demand, weak cost support, and the need to focus on the impact of export policies on prices [3]. - In the futures market, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [9]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Urea Trend Review - In August 2025, the domestic urea market was under pressure. Although export policies boosted market sentiment, they had limited impact on actual demand. The market's acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and prices generally showed a weak trend. The price trend can be divided into three stages: an initial rise followed by a fall, a continuous decline in the middle, and a short - term rebound followed by a weakening in the late stage [14]. Urea Supply New Capacity - From January to August 2025, multiple urea production facilities were put into operation, with a total new production capacity of 225 tons and a production capacity growth rate of 2.98%. It is estimated that the total new production capacity in 2025 will reach 494 tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55% [27]. Production and Operation - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea production was 5.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.10%. Although the daily production and operation rate decreased month - on - month due to increased maintenance plans, the overall supply remained high [31]. Urea Export - In July 2025, domestic urea exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a total export volume of 567,200 tons. In August, a third batch of export quotas was issued, with an estimated quantity of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. After adding this batch, the total export quota for the year exceeded 4 million tons [50]. - India conducted multiple urea import tenders in 2025, which had an impact on the international urea market [47][48]. Urea Demand Overall Demand - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea consumption was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%. It was the traditional off - season for agricultural demand, and both enterprise and port inventories increased, leading to a significant decrease in consumption [74]. Substitute Demand - There is a substitution relationship between urea and other fertilizers. Currently, urea has no obvious price advantage compared with ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride, but it has a cost - performance advantage compared with phosphate and potash fertilizers [76]. Agricultural Demand - August is the traditional off - season for domestic agricultural demand. In September, autumn fertilization will gradually start, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [123]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In August, compound fertilizer factories gradually started autumn fertilizer production, with a significant month - on - month increase in the operation rate. However, the shipment rhythm of autumn fertilizer preparation was slow, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate [124]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - In August 2025, the formaldehyde operation rate increased slightly week - on - week. Although domestic real - estate data was not good, plywood exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, which may support the demand for urea - formaldehyde resin [134]. Melamine Demand - In July 2025, the estimated melamine production was 135,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8.48%. The market was weak in the first half of the month and improved slightly in the second half, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak [140]. Urea Summer Storage - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has reduced the proportion of urea reserves, changed the requirements for targets, extended the storage period, adjusted the assessment indicators, and extended the delivery time [152][153][154]. Urea Inventory - In August 2025, urea enterprise inventories showed an overall accumulation trend, reaching 1.0858 million tons at the end of the month, an increase of 168,500 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventories reached a high level in the same period of previous years due to the opening of export policies [166]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Supply forecast: The August production is adjusted according to actual production, and the September production forecast is adjusted according to maintenance plans. The daily production in September is expected to increase month - on - month. - Export forecast: The total export quota for the year exceeds 4 million tons, and this amount is evenly distributed to the second - half months. - In September, domestic agricultural demand will enter the autumn fertilizer - preparation stage, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [169].
大越期货尿素早报-20250901
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production and inventory levels, while international prices are strong. The export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the urea market will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has fluctuated and declined recently. The market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, leading to a rise in futures prices, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate remain at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are moderate, and agricultural demand is limited. Overall, supply exceeds demand significantly in the domestic urea market, export profits are still strong, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), and the fundamentals are generally neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 94, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has turned bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the domestic supply still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: International urea prices are strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data - **Spot**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1840 (+10), the Shandong spot price is 1840 (+10), the Henan spot price is 1850 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 3102 [6]. - **Futures**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1746 (-7), the UR05 contract is 1791 (+2), and the UR09 contract is 1679 (-23). The basis of the UR01 contract is 94 [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 6473 (unchanged), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.437 million tons (-20,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 896,000 tons, and the UR port inventory is 541,000 tons [6]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and actual consumption generally showed an upward trend, with fluctuations in import dependence and consumption growth rates. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].
供大于求格局未改 尿素价格中枢仍将下移
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-07-30 00:24
2025年上半年尿素价格先震荡上涨,后震荡下跌,呈宽幅震荡走势。展望下半年尿素价格走势,预计7 月农业需求淡季引发尿素价格阶段性下跌;8—9月秋季备肥及出口集中装船等需求边际改善可能引发价 格反弹,但幅度受限于供应压力;若10月出口窗口关闭,需求淡季叠加高库存,价格或再次下探。 新增投产压力较大生产利润继续下降 2025年上半年,尿素行业产能投放309万吨,技改产能40万吨,产能增量为269万吨,上半年产能增速为 3.51%。理论产能从7670 万吨增长至7939万吨。 陕西陕化、甘肃靖远刘化(一期)、甘肃金昌能源、江苏晋煤恒盛化工、新疆新冀能源5套装置在2025 年上半年顺利投产。2025年下半年,尿素行业预计产能投放292万吨,暂无技改产能,产能增量为292 万吨,下半年产能增速(相较于2025 年上半年)为3.68%,理论产能从7939万吨增长至8231万吨。2025 年尿素产能增速预计为7.31%,下半年新疆奥福(库车沐阳)、九江心连心、安徽晋煤中能、甘肃靖远 刘化(二期)、山东晋控日月新材料、河北正元氢能科技 6 套装置投产,投产压力仍较大,尿素市场供 应宽松局面延续。 2025年上半年,新增产能较 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20250722
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 02:22
Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. Although international urea prices remain strong, China's second - batch export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons, falling short of expectations. The domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and inventories have increased again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation. The second - batch export quota is lower than expected, industrial and agricultural demands are weak, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 102, and the premium - discount ratio is - 6.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract has rebounded, international prices are strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and the export quota falling short of expectations. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710 (-20), Shandong spot is 1710 (-30), Henan spot is 1720 (-5), and FOB China is 2548 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1780 (+60), 1787 (+56), and 1812 (+67) respectively, and the basis of the UR09 contract is - 102 (-87) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), the UR factory inventory is 1.177 million tons (+142,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 245,000 tons (+40,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |
尿素:2025年产能增635万吨,期价或低位震荡
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-01 04:48
Core Viewpoint - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by a mix of supply and demand factors, with export policies playing a crucial role [1] Supply Factors - In the first half of 2025, approximately 3.5 million tons of new urea production capacity will be added, leading to a long-term daily output exceeding 200,000 tons [1] - An additional 2.8 million tons of new capacity is planned for the second half, with daily output expected to surpass 210,000 tons after September [1] - By the end of the year, total production capacity is projected to increase by 6.35 million tons, an 8.22% year-on-year growth, with total output anticipated to reach 70 million tons, reflecting an 8.14% year-on-year increase [1] Demand Factors - Agricultural demand remains strong in the first half of the year, with consumption growth of 8.89% from January to May, despite some seasonal fluctuations [1] - In the second half, both agricultural and industrial demand are expected to weaken, leading to a noticeable decline in consumption growth, with an annual increase forecasted at 4.5% to 5% [1] - Total consumption is estimated to be between 63.43 million and 63.73 million tons, which is lower than the projected production [1] Export and International Market - High uncertainty in the global market affects urea costs, production, and transportation [1] - The potential easing of export policies and the resumption of supply to India will significantly impact the export landscape and market sentiment [1] - If no policy changes occur, exports are unlikely to affect domestic supply and demand, but market sentiment may still be influenced by policy dynamics [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - High inventory levels were maintained in the first half of the year, with a seasonal accumulation observed from April to June [1] - The second half is expected to see continued high inventory pressure due to increased production capacity and weakened domestic demand, posing a risk of further accumulation [1] - Coal prices have decreased, reducing cost support for urea, with coal costs down by 110 to 130 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year [1] Market Outlook - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will face multiple pressures, but there are also supporting factors such as potential easing of export policies [1] - If export policies are unexpectedly relaxed, spot prices may approach the highs seen in the first half; if policies remain unchanged or tighten, the market will revert to being driven by domestic supply and demand, putting pressure on prices [1] - Price forecasts suggest that without unexpected contradictions, urea futures prices will trend lower, fluctuating within a range of 1,500 ± 100 yuan per ton for the low end and 1,800 to 1,850 yuan per ton for the high end [1]
尿素早评:出口消息提振,现货逐步企稳-20250630
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 05:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rumors of looser urea export policies and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing corn in the north, and the loosening of export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. Therefore, the demand for urea in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1684 yuan/ton on June 27, up 2 yuan (0.12%) from June 26; UR05 closed at 1696 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.30%); UR09 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.41%); Shandong spot price was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.56%) [1] - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices: In Shanxi, it was 1660 yuan/ton on June 27, up 10 yuan (0.61%); in Henan and Hebei, it remained at 1800 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, it was 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.55%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: The price of 45%S compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5083 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 114 yuan/ton on June 27, up 5 yuan from June 26 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 12 yuan/ton on June 27, down 3 yuan from June 26 [1] 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1735 yuan/ton, with a high of 1740 yuan/ton, a low of 1712 yuan/ton, closed at 1717 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1723 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 222,536 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities in urea futures, but be aware of the risk of changes in export policies [1]
尿素:供应保持高位 关注出口政策调整
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-06-25 09:20
Core Viewpoint - After a period of continuous decline, international urea prices surged due to geopolitical factors, making domestic exports possible and leading to a significant rebound in the market. However, with domestic export quotas nearly exhausted and weak domestic demand, urea prices have shown a notable decline again. Long-term, the oversupply situation in the domestic market has not fundamentally changed, and future policy adjustments will need to be monitored [1]. Supply Situation - Supply remains at a high level, with the urea industry entering a new capacity expansion cycle in 2025, expected to add nearly 7 million tons of production capacity throughout the year. New production facilities have been launched in the first half of the year, and while daily production has slightly decreased, it still operates at a high level compared to the previous year. As of May 20, daily urea production was 196,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons year-on-year. Additional new facilities are expected to come online in the second half of the year, indicating a continued loose supply situation [4][2]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for urea is expected to increase in 2025, primarily driven by the compound fertilizer industry, melamine industry, and agricultural sector. It is estimated that the compound fertilizer sector will add 5.1 million tons of new capacity, translating to an increase in urea demand of 810,000 tons. The agricultural sector is also expected to see a rise in urea application due to advanced farming techniques. However, the total increase in urea demand for the year is projected to be around 3 million tons, which is significantly lower than the anticipated increase in production capacity. In the short term, demand is notably weak, with the compound fertilizer production for summer nearing completion and other industrial demands also showing weakness [5][4]. Policy Impact - Future policy changes will be crucial in influencing the urea market. Recent surges in international urea prices have exceeded China's previous export limit, making exports feasible. The first batch of 2 million tons of export quotas has been nearly fully allocated, with shipments expected in July and August. The announcement of new export quotas remains pending, and whether these quotas will increase is a key factor affecting the short-term market. If an additional 2 million tons of export quotas are released, it could lead to a significant reduction in inventory by 2025, potentially creating a more optimistic outlook for urea prices. Conversely, if no further export quotas are issued, prices may continue to decline [6][5].
尿素期货大幅回落
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-06-24 00:18
Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in urea futures prices have shown a significant rebound followed by a rapid decline, with the main contract closing at 1711 yuan/ton, down 2% and nearly 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous high of 1800 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Urea futures prices have experienced a sharp drop after a significant rebound, with the main contract closing at 1711 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic urea spot prices have also decreased, with some regions seeing price reductions of 10 to 50 yuan/ton, and mainstream small particle prices ranging from 1680 to 1800 yuan/ton [1] - Market sentiment is cautious, with high-level transactions facing resistance and traders eager to liquidate, leading to noticeable price declines [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent price volatility to two main factors: improved export conditions due to disruptions in Iranian production and lower-than-expected Indian urea tender volumes, which have driven prices up [3] - The expectation of relaxed domestic export policies has also contributed to price increases, but subsequent supply chain improvements have not materialized, leading to downward pressure on prices [3] - Urea production remains high, with potential increases in daily output and nearly 200 million tons of new production capacity expected to be released from July to October [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that urea prices may stabilize at lower levels due to ongoing production profitability and reduced agricultural demand in the second half of the year [5] - The key variable affecting future prices will be the timing and volume of any further relaxation of export policies [5] - Analysts believe that urea prices are currently constrained by supply-demand dynamics and export policy impacts, with limited upward potential but some support from potential policy changes [5]