Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent urea futures market has rebounded. Although international urea prices remain strong, China's second - batch export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first batch of 200,000 tons, falling short of expectations. The domestic supply shows high daily production and operating rates, and inventories have increased again. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand have continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation, and the export policy has not been more liberal than expected. The spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The domestic urea market has an obvious oversupply situation. The second - batch export quota is lower than expected, industrial and agricultural demands are weak, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1710 (-20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 102, and the premium - discount ratio is - 6.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract has rebounded, international prices are strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the domestic market has an obvious oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will move in a volatile manner today [4]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factors include strong international prices; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, weak domestic demand, and the export quota falling short of expectations. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The price of the spot delivery product is 1710 (-20), Shandong spot is 1710 (-30), Henan spot is 1720 (-5), and FOB China is 2548 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1780 (+60), 1787 (+56), and 1812 (+67) respectively, and the basis of the UR09 contract is - 102 (-87) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), the UR factory inventory is 1.177 million tons (+142,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 245,000 tons (+40,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10] |

Core Viewpoint - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will be influenced by a mix of supply and demand factors, with export policies playing a crucial role [1] Supply Factors - In the first half of 2025, approximately 3.5 million tons of new urea production capacity will be added, leading to a long-term daily output exceeding 200,000 tons [1] - An additional 2.8 million tons of new capacity is planned for the second half, with daily output expected to surpass 210,000 tons after September [1] - By the end of the year, total production capacity is projected to increase by 6.35 million tons, an 8.22% year-on-year growth, with total output anticipated to reach 70 million tons, reflecting an 8.14% year-on-year increase [1] Demand Factors - Agricultural demand remains strong in the first half of the year, with consumption growth of 8.89% from January to May, despite some seasonal fluctuations [1] - In the second half, both agricultural and industrial demand are expected to weaken, leading to a noticeable decline in consumption growth, with an annual increase forecasted at 4.5% to 5% [1] - Total consumption is estimated to be between 63.43 million and 63.73 million tons, which is lower than the projected production [1] Export and International Market - High uncertainty in the global market affects urea costs, production, and transportation [1] - The potential easing of export policies and the resumption of supply to India will significantly impact the export landscape and market sentiment [1] - If no policy changes occur, exports are unlikely to affect domestic supply and demand, but market sentiment may still be influenced by policy dynamics [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - High inventory levels were maintained in the first half of the year, with a seasonal accumulation observed from April to June [1] - The second half is expected to see continued high inventory pressure due to increased production capacity and weakened domestic demand, posing a risk of further accumulation [1] - Coal prices have decreased, reducing cost support for urea, with coal costs down by 110 to 130 yuan per ton compared to the end of last year [1] Market Outlook - The urea market in the second half of 2025 will face multiple pressures, but there are also supporting factors such as potential easing of export policies [1] - If export policies are unexpectedly relaxed, spot prices may approach the highs seen in the first half; if policies remain unchanged or tighten, the market will revert to being driven by domestic supply and demand, putting pressure on prices [1] - Price forecasts suggest that without unexpected contradictions, urea futures prices will trend lower, fluctuating within a range of 1,500 ± 100 yuan per ton for the low end and 1,800 to 1,850 yuan per ton for the high end [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent rumors of looser urea export policies and the release of a new round of Indian tenders have boosted market sentiment. From the perspective of urea demand, June - July is still the peak season for top - dressing corn in the north, and the loosening of export policies and price drops will stimulate speculative demand. Therefore, the demand for urea in the next two months is expected to be good. Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Urea futures prices: UR01 closed at 1684 yuan/ton on June 27, up 2 yuan (0.12%) from June 26; UR05 closed at 1696 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan (0.30%); UR09 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan (- 0.41%); Shandong spot price was 1810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.56%) [1] - Domestic small - particle urea spot prices: In Shanxi, it was 1660 yuan/ton on June 27, up 10 yuan (0.61%); in Henan and Hebei, it remained at 1800 yuan/ton; in the Northeast, it was 1890 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 1820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.55%) [1] - Upstream costs: Anthracite prices in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1080 yuan/ton and 820 yuan/ton respectively [1] - Downstream prices: The price of 45%S compound fertilizer in Shandong and Henan remained at 2930 yuan/ton and 2520 yuan/ton respectively; the price of melamine in Shandong and Jiangsu remained at 5083 yuan/ton and 5300 yuan/ton respectively [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was 114 yuan/ton on June 27, up 5 yuan from June 26 [1] - The spread of 01 - 05 was - 12 yuan/ton on June 27, down 3 yuan from June 26 [1] 3. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the urea futures main contract 2509 opened at 1735 yuan/ton, with a high of 1740 yuan/ton, a low of 1712 yuan/ton, closed at 1717 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1723 yuan/ton. The position of 2509 was 222,536 lots [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Wait for the spot price to fall and stabilize before looking for long - position opportunities in urea futures, but be aware of the risk of changes in export policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - After a period of continuous decline, international urea prices surged due to geopolitical factors, making domestic exports possible and leading to a significant rebound in the market. However, with domestic export quotas nearly exhausted and weak domestic demand, urea prices have shown a notable decline again. Long-term, the oversupply situation in the domestic market has not fundamentally changed, and future policy adjustments will need to be monitored [1]. Supply Situation - Supply remains at a high level, with the urea industry entering a new capacity expansion cycle in 2025, expected to add nearly 7 million tons of production capacity throughout the year. New production facilities have been launched in the first half of the year, and while daily production has slightly decreased, it still operates at a high level compared to the previous year. As of May 20, daily urea production was 196,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons year-on-year. Additional new facilities are expected to come online in the second half of the year, indicating a continued loose supply situation [4][2]. Demand Dynamics - Demand for urea is expected to increase in 2025, primarily driven by the compound fertilizer industry, melamine industry, and agricultural sector. It is estimated that the compound fertilizer sector will add 5.1 million tons of new capacity, translating to an increase in urea demand of 810,000 tons. The agricultural sector is also expected to see a rise in urea application due to advanced farming techniques. However, the total increase in urea demand for the year is projected to be around 3 million tons, which is significantly lower than the anticipated increase in production capacity. In the short term, demand is notably weak, with the compound fertilizer production for summer nearing completion and other industrial demands also showing weakness [5][4]. Policy Impact - Future policy changes will be crucial in influencing the urea market. Recent surges in international urea prices have exceeded China's previous export limit, making exports feasible. The first batch of 2 million tons of export quotas has been nearly fully allocated, with shipments expected in July and August. The announcement of new export quotas remains pending, and whether these quotas will increase is a key factor affecting the short-term market. If an additional 2 million tons of export quotas are released, it could lead to a significant reduction in inventory by 2025, potentially creating a more optimistic outlook for urea prices. Conversely, if no further export quotas are issued, prices may continue to decline [6][5].

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in urea futures prices have shown a significant rebound followed by a rapid decline, with the main contract closing at 1711 yuan/ton, down 2% and nearly 100 yuan/ton lower than the previous high of 1800 yuan/ton [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Urea futures prices have experienced a sharp drop after a significant rebound, with the main contract closing at 1711 yuan/ton [1] - Domestic urea spot prices have also decreased, with some regions seeing price reductions of 10 to 50 yuan/ton, and mainstream small particle prices ranging from 1680 to 1800 yuan/ton [1] - Market sentiment is cautious, with high-level transactions facing resistance and traders eager to liquidate, leading to noticeable price declines [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Analysts attribute the recent price volatility to two main factors: improved export conditions due to disruptions in Iranian production and lower-than-expected Indian urea tender volumes, which have driven prices up [3] - The expectation of relaxed domestic export policies has also contributed to price increases, but subsequent supply chain improvements have not materialized, leading to downward pressure on prices [3] - Urea production remains high, with potential increases in daily output and nearly 200 million tons of new production capacity expected to be released from July to October [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term outlook suggests that urea prices may stabilize at lower levels due to ongoing production profitability and reduced agricultural demand in the second half of the year [5] - The key variable affecting future prices will be the timing and volume of any further relaxation of export policies [5] - Analysts believe that urea prices are currently constrained by supply-demand dynamics and export policy impacts, with limited upward potential but some support from potential policy changes [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is "Range-bound" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, with fundamental pressure in the medium term. The upside is limited due to the gentle release of domestic top - dressing demand, high inventory of mid - stream traders, and the export policy that curbs speculation. The downside is supported by the opening of the export channel. In the long - run, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains high, and the price center may gradually decline, but there may be multi - stage price rebounds due to export releases [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data 3.1.1 Futures Market - Urea主力: Closing price was 1,761 yuan/ton (down 12 from the previous day), settlement price was 1,774 yuan/ton (down 4), trading volume was 178,534 lots, open interest was 231,078 lots (up 5,951), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,619 tons (down 235). The turnover was 633.582 million yuan (down 56.772 million) [2] - Basis: Shandong region basis was 109 (up 12), Fengxi - disk was - 31 (up 12), and Dongguang - disk was 69 (up 12) [2] - Month spread: UR09 - UR01 was 65 (down 5) [2] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Urea factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Shanxi Fengxi, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged at 1,860 yuan/ton, 1,660 yuan/ton, 1,840 yuan/ton, 1,730 yuan/ton, 1,830 yuan/ton, and 1,880 yuan/ton respectively. Trader prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions also remained unchanged at 1,870 yuan/ton and 1,730 yuan/ton respectively [2] - Supply - side indicators: The operating rate was 90.16% (up 0.57 percentage points), and the daily output was 207,310 tons (up 1,300) [2] 3.2 Industry News - As of May 28, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 980,600 tons, an increase of 63,200 tons (6.89% YoY) from the previous week. The inventory is expected to continue rising this week due to weakened speculative trading by traders [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with high supply and weak demand in the short term. The export policy has been implemented, and although the export profit is high, it has little impact on domestic prices. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be oscillating weakly [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has declined recently. Supply-side factors include high operating rates and daily production, with new plants coming into operation and short-term inventory fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, while that of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is weak in the short term. The international urea price is strong, and the export policy has been implemented, resulting in high export profits but little impact on domestic prices. The spot price of the deliverable product is 1860 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 76, with a premium/discount ratio of 4.1%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20-day moving average, indicating a neutral position [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has reversed to a long position, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has declined, with high daily production, short-term inventory fluctuations, weak agricultural demand in the short term, and price decline after the implementation of the export policy. It is expected that the trend of UR today will be oscillating weakly [4]. Factors Affecting Urea Price - **Bullish Factors**: The theoretical export profit is high [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High daily production and operation rates, new plant commissioning, and overall weak demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: High daily production on the supply side and marginal changes in demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Quotes - **Spot Market**: The price of the deliverable product is 1860 (+0), the price of Shandong spot is 1880 (+0), the price of Henan spot is 1860 (+0), and the FOB China price is 2592 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 contracts have all declined, with decreases of 8, 8, and 6 respectively [6]. Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - **2018 - 2024**: From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend. The import dependence has fluctuated, and the consumption growth rate has also varied. The ending inventory has remained relatively stable [10]. - **2025E**: The production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The export policy for urea is relatively mild, and the market will enter a volatile pattern in the medium term [1]. - The urea futures market is expected to show a pattern of long - short game and oscillation, with support at the bottom and limited upside space due to policy control [3]. - Next week, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue to decline [2]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) remained unchanged at 1,897 yuan/ton, the settlement price increased by 12 yuan/ton to 1,903 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 33,071 hands to 299,239 hands, the open interest increased by 8,127 hands to 275,098 hands, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2,149 tons to 7,049 tons, and the trading volume increased by 131,731 ten - thousand yuan to 1,138,628 ten - thousand yuan. The Shandong regional basis increased by 10 to 83, and the UR09 - UR01 spread increased by 3 to 99 [1]. - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of major urea manufacturers remained unchanged. The trading price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,980 yuan/ton, and the price in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,890 yuan/ton. The supply - side operating rate decreased by 1.04 percentage points to 85.50%, and the daily output decreased by 2,400 tons to 197,170 tons [1]. Industry News - As of May 7, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0656 million tons, a decrease of 0.1261 million tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.58%. The inventory of some provinces increased, while that of most provinces decreased. Due to strong short - term speculative behavior of traders, the inventory of urea production enterprises is expected to continue to decline next week [2]. - The export policy has been temporarily implemented. The self - regulated export volume of urea by relevant associations this year (until April 2026) is about 2 million tons, and the export rhythm and time are adjusted to ensure domestic market stability and prevent excessive concentration of exports [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report indicates that urea exports are basically confirmed, and ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remain the focus of the domestic market. The urea futures market is mainly driven by export expectations. The domestic policy aims to maintain supply and price stability, and if there are price fluctuations, the government will intervene. This is unfavorable for urea futures bulls, and it is expected that urea futures will reflect the policy intention [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea and Related Product Prices - **Domestic Urea Spot Prices**: The report presents historical price trends of urea in different regions of China, including Henan, Shanxi (small and large particles), and Sichuan from 2021 to 2025 [8][9]. - **International Urea Prices and Spreads**: It shows historical price trends of small - particle urea FOB prices in China and the Middle East, as well as the profit of Shandong factories for port collection and the spread between the Middle East and Shandong factory port collection costs from 2021 to 2025 [11][12]. - **Unit Nitrogen Element Prices and Spreads**: The report provides historical price trends of synthetic ammonia in Hubei, ammonium chloride in Henan, and the spreads between liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride from 2021 to 2025 [14][15]. - **Phosphate and Potassium Fertilizer Prices**: It shows historical price trends of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, 60% potassium fertilizer, and 62% port potassium fertilizer in Hubei from 2021 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Urea Futures Basis and Inter - month Spreads**: The report presents historical price trends of the urea futures 09 contract, its basis, and the 9 - 1 spread from 2021 to 2025 [20][21]. 3.2 Urea Supply - **Domestic Urea Production**: The weekly average daily production of urea has been increasing, reaching 20.43 tons in the week of May 22 - 28, 2025. There were changes in the number of parking and resuming enterprises, and 5 enterprises were planned to be under maintenance and 1 was expected to resume production in the current week. The report also shows historical data on the weekly average daily production, cumulative production, and production by raw material (natural gas and coal) from 2021 to 2025 [5][25][26]. - **Coal Prices and Urea Profits**: The price of anthracite is stable, and the fixed - bed process production cost in Shanxi is 1480 yuan/ton. The profit of the fixed - bed process in Shanxi is 410 yuan/ton, and it is expected that prices will remain stable [5][28][29]. - **Urea Factory Inventory and Apparent Consumption**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.56 tons, a decrease of 12.61 tons (- 10.58%) compared to the previous period. The report also shows historical data on enterprise inventory, apparent consumption, order volume, and domestic apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [5][31][32]. 3.3 Urea Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.90%, a decrease of 2.7% compared to the previous period, and it is expected to increase steadily. The report also shows historical data on the compound fertilizer enterprise's start - up rate, inventory, import, export, and net export from 2021 to 2025 [5][36][37]. - **Compound Fertilizer Upstream**: For phosphate fertilizers, it shows historical data on the weekly production, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate from 2021 to 2025. For potassium fertilizers, it shows historical data on the domestic start - up rate, port inventory, domestic supply volume, and cumulative domestic supply volume from 2021 to 2025 [38][39][42]. - **Melamine**: The report shows historical data on the weekly production, price, ratio to urea, and domestic net retention volume of melamine from 2021 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Urea Export**: The report shows historical data on the monthly and cumulative export volume of urea from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. 3.4 Urea Inventory The report shows historical data on urea enterprise inventory, port inventory, the sum of enterprise and port inventory, and urea warehouse receipts from 2021 to 2025 [49][50].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - On April 30, market rumors of possible urea export liberalization led to a significant gap - up in the futures market, with intraday gains exceeding 7%. During the May Day holiday, urea spot prices showed a slight increase. Considering the uncertainty of export policy in the short - term, two scenarios are considered. If export is confirmed to be liberalized, domestic urea prices may rise above 2000 yuan/ton due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and considerable export profits. If export remains restricted, after previous rounds of false export speculations, the price increase will likely be reversed in the short - term, but with domestic peak - season expectations, the price drop will stimulate demand, and there is support at the 1700 yuan/ton level. The strategy is to let long - position holders realize some profits and keep an eye on export policy trends [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On April 30, UR01 closed at 1778 yuan/ton (up 3.86% from April 29), UR05 at 1850 yuan/ton (up 5.24%), UR09 at 1857 yuan/ton (up 7.03%), and the previous trading day, the main contract 2509 opened at 1770 yuan/ton, with a high of 1771 yuan/ton, a low of 1725 yuan/ton, and closed at 1735 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot Prices**: Domestic spot prices in different regions had varying degrees of increase on April 30 compared to April 29. For example, in Shanxi, it was 1770 yuan/ton (up 4.12%), in Henan 1860 yuan/ton (up 2.20%), and in Shandong 1869 yuan/ton (up 5.24%) [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 19 yuan/ton on April 30, down 43 yuan/ton from April 29. The 01 - 05 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - **Upstream**: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and other regions remained unchanged on April 30 compared to April 29 [1] - **Downstream**: The prices of compound fertilizers (45%S) and melamine in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu, and other regions remained unchanged on April 30 compared to April 29 [1] Trading Strategy - Long - position holders are advised to realize some profits and continue to monitor the direction of export policies [1]