【尿素： 国内供应压力难缓解，关注出口节奏】2026年度报告 日期: 2025-12-29 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【尿素：国内供应压力难缓解，关注出口节奏】2026年度报告 核心观点 2025-12-29 * 合约: UR605 ® 观点: 尿素 下跌空间有限,在[1600]价位存在支撑 ® 退辑： ③近明国内气头装置随乐开始检修，日产环比下降，但产量和开工同比维持肩位：Q需求讲尾内家融上预导，以赌客外库为主，工业复合肥进入谈减肥生产，需求群冈比有所正登，③成本菊悦超期制钉重小台升 尿素成本支撑在1500-1550阶近，在第四批出口配额下发，数量预期在60万吨左右，关注后期具体出口数量。总体来看，在淡储和出口调节下，尿素向下列驱动维。以震荡智同对特。 | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为与 | | 现货做口 | 策略推荐 | 套保领生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | ...

煤化板块研发报告 | 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 【综合分析】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | 二、供应分析—2026 | | 年新增投产压力进一步加大 8 | | 三、需求分析—需求增速进一步放缓，出口成为关键变量 | | 19 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 35 | | 免责声明 | | 37 | 尿素半年报 2025 年 12 月 30 新增投产压力加大，出口政策影响市场节奏 第一部分 前言概要 【综合分析】 2026 年基本面展望，供应端，2026 年尿素新增产能依旧加速释放，总 体来看，预计 2026 年仍有超过 650 万吨左右的新增产能将陆续投放，预计 到 2026 年年底，国内尿素总产能预计增加至 8700 万吨，产能增速约 6.7% 左右，届时日均产量将突破 22.5 万吨，有望在年底前达到 23 万吨的历史新 高。 需求端来看，农业需求集中爆发预计在春节后上半年之前，届时东北春 耕大规模生产，中原苏皖地区高氮肥生产，需求达到年内高点。农业需求整 体平稳，工业需 ...

冠通期货-尿素2026年报 --供应压制价格，出口提供驱动 研究咨询部： 王 静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 报告时间： 2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 总体来说，2025年尿素年内供应压制高度，内需决定支撑，出口提供驱动。受到供应高位的影响，盘面上涨始终承压，而内需上半年整体呈现出 前置的状况，促使五月需求旺季阶段内需疲软出现大幅下跌，下半年受华北地区天气的影响，需求有所延迟，10月底跌至低点后开启一波反弹行情， 另外出口消息贯穿全年，多次出现脉冲式上涨行情，出口配额相继落地后又不及市场预期开启回落，呈现先扬后抑，年底翘尾的趋势。由于新增产能 的陆续投放，尿素供应端依旧承压，预计出口将继续适时以配额的形式继续发布，农需上半年多有前置，预计上半年价格偏强为主，下半年随着旺季 的结束或有回落，年内呈现先扬后抑格局，出口政策或影响阶段行情，但明年十五五开局之年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fertilizer industry is facing intensified competition, leading to a significant decline in urea prices and increased losses for companies due to oversupply and weak demand [1][2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Conditions - Urea prices in North China fell below 1600 RMB per ton in September, with further declines observed post-National Day, reaching 1500-1570 RMB in Shandong and 1490-1520 RMB in Shanxi, marking over a 20% year-on-year drop [1][2]. - The overall urea production capacity in China is projected to reach 7900 million tons by the end of the year, with an expected oversupply of 5-6 million tons [2][6]. - The agricultural demand for urea is limited, with a decrease in summer grain planting area and a slowdown in industrial demand due to the real estate sector's downturn [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Inventory - The operating rate of urea enterprises is approximately 82.39%, down 3.64 percentage points year-on-year, with a significant increase in urea inventory, reaching 145.98 million tons as of October 5 [4][5]. - The market sentiment remains bearish, with downstream purchasing activity low and a lack of strong demand leading to continuous price declines [3][4]. Group 3: Export Policies - The National Development and Reform Commission has adjusted fertilizer export policies, allowing for a total of 450 million tons to be exported by the end of September, but the allocation of export quotas has favored storage enterprises over production companies [6][7]. - Companies have suggested optimizing the export quota distribution to increase the share for production enterprises and dynamically adjusting export policies based on market conditions [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price rebounded slightly. Recently, many urea enterprises have shut down their devices for maintenance, resulting in a significant phased decrease in daily production, which is expected to gradually recover to over 190,000 tons after the end of the month. On the demand side, the reserve demand has moderately increased, but the rainy weather has affected the agricultural demand to some extent, and the overall downstream demand is weak. The inventory of urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. Overall, there has been no obvious improvement in the supply - demand situation of urea, and the high - inventory pattern strongly limits the rebound space. The futures price continues to trade at a low level. In the future, attention should be paid to export policies and off - season storage procurement [4]. - For the UR2601 contract, focus on the trading range of 1,550 - 1,670 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: The daily production of urea has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), including 1.05 million tons of coal - based urea and 270,300 tons of gas - based urea, with an average daily production of 189,000 tons. There are many planned shutdowns of urea enterprises, such as Henan Zhongyuan Dahua Group Co., Ltd., Yunnan Dawei Ammonia Co., Ltd., CNOOC Fudao Co., Ltd., and Linggu Chemical Group Co., Ltd. [4][20][24] - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 24.18% (-1.32%), and the finished product inventory is 709,100 tons (a decrease of 25,900 tons from the previous period). The production of autumn fertilizers is coming to an end, and the operating rate of compound fertilizers is at a low level. The operating rate of melamine is 55.18% (-10.29%), showing a significant month - on - month decline [4][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 6.71 days (a month - on - month decrease of 0.29 days) [4][30]. - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price is oscillating strongly, and the profit of urea has decreased month - on - month [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Breakdown - **Domestic Urea Market Price**: The domestic urea market price has risen slightly this week [6]. - **International Urea Market Price**: The international urea market price has shown a mixed trend of rising and falling [10]. - **Supply**: The daily production has decreased phasedly. The weekly urea production is 1.3205 million tons (-5.01%), and the average daily production is 189,000 tons. Many enterprises have planned shutdowns [16][20][24]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises has continued to accumulate significantly. The inventory of urea enterprises is 1.6451 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 171,500 tons. The port inventory is 446,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons), and the pre - sales days of enterprises have decreased [26][30]. - **Demand**: The rainy weather has affected the follow - up of terminal demand. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises have decreased [32][33]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price is trading strongly [35]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 1 - 5 spread is trading weakly, and the change in the 01 basis is limited [44]. - **Urea - Related Product Spreads**: Relevant data on spreads such as liquid ammonia - urea and urea - ammonium chloride (in terms of pure nitrogen) are presented [54].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the price of urea futures has reached a new low for the year, with total open interest increasing significantly, indicating a market in a phase of delayed demand release, limited supply contraction, and undecided policies [1] Demand Dynamics - The demand for urea is currently characterized by delayed release and structural differentiation, with initial signs of recovery in autumn fertilizer demand following the end of rainfall in North China, but downstream stocking enthusiasm remains low [2][4] - The price of small granular urea has recently dropped to around 1500 yuan/ton, a 14.53% decrease compared to the same period last year, with some regions seeing spot prices fall to 1460 yuan/ton, marking a yearly low [4] Industrial Demand - Industrial demand for urea shows a differentiated pattern, with compound fertilizer companies holding 735,000 tons of finished product inventory and a low operating rate of 25.5% year-on-year [5] - The decline in urea prices has led to increased profits for melamine, with theoretical gross margins rising to 400 yuan/ton, while the board industry faces reduced production due to persistent humid weather [5] Supply Situation - Short-term supply contraction is limited, with urea daily production dropping from around 200,000 tons to nearly 190,000 tons due to maintenance, but still at a high level compared to the past five years [6][8] - The impact of maintenance on production is expected to be minimal, with only a few companies announcing specific maintenance schedules [9] Policy and Export Outlook - In September, China's urea exports reached 1 million tons, but the cumulative export volume from January to September was only 2.44 million tons, far below the annual quota of 4.2 million tons [10] - The upcoming tender from India for 2 million tons of urea presents a significant opportunity for domestic companies to reduce inventory, contingent on the extension of the export window and potential adjustments to export pricing policies [10] Price Guidance - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has issued a quarterly guidance price for urea, indicating a clear intention to support prices, although practical implementation remains questionable [11] - Urea inventory has risen to a high of 1.4439 million tons, which is expected to suppress upward price movement in the short term [11][13] Market Sentiment - The emergence of low prices has led to marginal improvements in the urea fundamentals, with futures prices finding support around 1600 yuan/ton, but the market still faces significant supply-demand pressures [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea demand is weak, spot prices continue to decline, and futures follow suit. Low - level trading has improved but the sustainability is average. Insufficient domestic demand has led to inventory accumulation in factories, while port inventory has decreased slightly. In the medium - to - long - term, urea supply and demand remain loose due to new capacity release. The market is currently affected by export sentiment, and attention should be paid to subsequent export policies and the procurement rhythm in Northeast China [2] Summary by Content Directory I. Price and Spread - Urea主力收盘1597元/吨（-12）；河南小颗粒市场价1530元/吨（-10）；山东小颗粒市场价1540元/吨（-10）；江苏小颗粒市场价1550元/吨（-10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0）；山东尿素基差-47元/吨（+2）；河南尿素基差-57元/吨（-18）；江苏尿素基差-37元/吨（+2）；尿素生产利润10.0元/吨（-10.0）；出口利润982.4元/吨（+11.3） [1] II. Upstream Supply - As of October 12, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.67% (+1.97%) [1] III. Downstream Demand - As of October 12, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 25.50% (-6.96%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 65.47% (+4.0%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.00 days (-2.2) [1] IV. Urea Inventory - As of October 12, 2025, the enterprise in - factory inventory was 1.444 billion tons (+212,000), and the port inventory was 415 million tons (-38,000) [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market shows a mixed picture. The overall domestic supply of urea exceeds demand, with high production levels and weak domestic demand, but international prices are strong. The export policy has not been significantly liberalized, and the export profit remains high. The urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has been oscillating downward recently. The current daily production and operating rate have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, and the inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has increased, the operating rate of melamine is moderate, and agricultural demand has entered the off - season. The overall domestic supply of urea far exceeds demand, the export profit is still high, and the export policy has not been significantly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (+20), and the fundamentals are generally bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 117, and the premium - discount ratio is 6.6%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.41 million tons (+0.8), which is bearish [5]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [5]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to oscillate weakly. International urea prices are strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [5]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Production | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall oversupply in China, with high daily production and inventory levels. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is at a moderate level, while agricultural demand is limited. Although the export profit is strong, the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The international urea price is strong, and the urea futures market is expected to fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently declined after a previous increase due to rumors of export liberalization. Current daily production and operating rates are still high, and inventory is at a high level overall. The domestic urea market remains in a significant oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 66, with a premium - discount ratio of 3.7%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate today, with a strong international price, non - over - expected export policy liberalization, and a significant domestic oversupply situation [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: The international urea price is strong [5]. - **Bearish Factors**: High operating rates and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. - **Main Logic**: The marginal changes in international prices and domestic demand [5]. Market Data - **Spot Market**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1780 (-10), the Shandong spot price is 1780 (-10), the Henan spot price is 1790 (0), and the FOB China price is 3031 [6]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the UR01 contract is 1714 (0), the basis is 66 (-10), the price of the UR05 contract is 1753 (-4), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1664 (6) [6]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipt is 7928 (723), the UR comprehensive inventory is 140.2 million tons (-3.5), the UR manufacturer inventory is 85.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 54.3 million tons [6]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by - year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also generally shown an upward trend, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The import dependence has fluctuated between 8.4% and 19.3%. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906, with an 11.0% growth rate [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The short - term price of urea is likely to decline but the downside space is limited, with support at the 1700 price level. The reasons include high domestic production and operation rates, weak domestic demand, weak cost support, and the need to focus on the impact of export policies on prices [3]. - In the futures market, urea is in a pattern with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support, and is expected to fluctuate mainly [9]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Urea Trend Review - In August 2025, the domestic urea market was under pressure. Although export policies boosted market sentiment, they had limited impact on actual demand. The market's acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and prices generally showed a weak trend. The price trend can be divided into three stages: an initial rise followed by a fall, a continuous decline in the middle, and a short - term rebound followed by a weakening in the late stage [14]. Urea Supply New Capacity - From January to August 2025, multiple urea production facilities were put into operation, with a total new production capacity of 225 tons and a production capacity growth rate of 2.98%. It is estimated that the total new production capacity in 2025 will reach 494 tons, with a production capacity growth rate of 6.55% [27]. Production and Operation - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea production was 5.93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.10%. Although the daily production and operation rate decreased month - on - month due to increased maintenance plans, the overall supply remained high [31]. Urea Export - In July 2025, domestic urea exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, with a total export volume of 567,200 tons. In August, a third batch of export quotas was issued, with an estimated quantity of 700,000 - 1,000,000 tons. After adding this batch, the total export quota for the year exceeded 4 million tons [50]. - India conducted multiple urea import tenders in 2025, which had an impact on the international urea market [47][48]. Urea Demand Overall Demand - In August 2025, the estimated domestic urea consumption was 4.75 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.65%. It was the traditional off - season for agricultural demand, and both enterprise and port inventories increased, leading to a significant decrease in consumption [74]. Substitute Demand - There is a substitution relationship between urea and other fertilizers. Currently, urea has no obvious price advantage compared with ammonium sulfate and ammonium chloride, but it has a cost - performance advantage compared with phosphate and potash fertilizers [76]. Agricultural Demand - August is the traditional off - season for domestic agricultural demand. In September, autumn fertilization will gradually start, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [123]. Compound Fertilizer Demand - In August, compound fertilizer factories gradually started autumn fertilizer production, with a significant month - on - month increase in the operation rate. However, the shipment rhythm of autumn fertilizer preparation was slow, and enterprise inventories continued to accumulate [124]. Urea - Formaldehyde Resin Demand - In August 2025, the formaldehyde operation rate increased slightly week - on - week. Although domestic real - estate data was not good, plywood exports increased slightly year - on - year and month - on - month, which may support the demand for urea - formaldehyde resin [134]. Melamine Demand - In July 2025, the estimated melamine production was 135,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 8.48%. The market was weak in the first half of the month and improved slightly in the second half, but the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak [140]. Urea Summer Storage - The new "National Fertilizer Commercial Reserve Management Measures" for the 2024 - 2026 period has reduced the proportion of urea reserves, changed the requirements for targets, extended the storage period, adjusted the assessment indicators, and extended the delivery time [152][153][154]. Urea Inventory - In August 2025, urea enterprise inventories showed an overall accumulation trend, reaching 1.0858 million tons at the end of the month, an increase of 168,500 tons compared with the beginning of the month. Port inventories reached a high level in the same period of previous years due to the opening of export policies [166]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Supply forecast: The August production is adjusted according to actual production, and the September production forecast is adjusted according to maintenance plans. The daily production in September is expected to increase month - on - month. - Export forecast: The total export quota for the year exceeds 4 million tons, and this amount is evenly distributed to the second - half months. - In September, domestic agricultural demand will enter the autumn fertilizer - preparation stage, which is expected to bring a phased boost to the market [169].