【UR周报20250824】第三批出口配额消息落地，盘面冲高回落 日期: 2025-08-24 ZHESHANG FUTURES 【UR周报20250824】第三批出口配额消息落地，盘面冲高回落 核心观点 * 合约: UR601 ® 观点： 尿素 短期易跌难涨，但下方空间有限，在1700价位存在支撑 ® 逻辑： ①近利国内装置计划检修有所趋加。但对供应筑整体影响有限，产量和开工同比维持高位；②需求讲回内攻需进入谈季，工业复合肥开始秋季生产，需求碳整体支撑有限； 忽成本销近规划保持弱势，尿素成本支撑下 移至1500-1600附近。 ④出口政策逐步落地，关注后期具体出口数量。总体来看，国内需求总体有所走弱，供应端压力凸显，关注出口是否能对价格形成支撑， | 产业链操作建议 | | | | | | | | | | 场外报价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情形写向 | 现货散口 | 策略推荐 | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | | ...

大宗商品研究 能源化工研发报告 尿素日报 2025 年 8 月 20 日 尿素日报 【市场回顾】 1、期货市场：尿素期货低开后震荡下行，最终报收 1776（-13/-0.73%）。 2、现货市场：出厂价上涨，成交一般，河南出厂报 1720-1740 元/吨，山东小颗粒 出厂报 1720-1740 元/吨，河北小颗粒出厂 1730-1740 元/吨，山西中小颗粒出厂报 1650-1660 元/吨，安徽小颗粒出厂报 1740-1750 元/吨，内蒙出厂报 1580-1640 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 【尿素】8 月 20 日，尿素行业日产 19.52 万吨，较上一工作日（修正为 19.68）减少 0.18 万吨；较去年同期增加 2.72 万吨；今日开工 84.33%，较去年同期 76.19%提升 8.14%。 【逻辑分析】 今日，市场情绪表现一般，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价上涨，成交平平。山东地区 主流出厂报价领涨，市场情绪表现一般，工业复合肥开工率略有提升，原料库存充裕， 成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商出货，新单成交 乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂报价暂稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏低，出厂报 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。"反内卷"情绪降温后走势回归基本面。19日，市场传言中 印外长会面期间有尿素出口印度增长预期导致期货价格上涨。当前日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置， 库存整体高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥、三聚氰胺开工均偏低，农业需求偏弱。国内尿素整 体供过于求仍明显，出口利润有所回落但仍较强，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1850 （+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差33，升贴水比例1.8%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存145.7万吨（-0.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand weakened and urea ex - factory quotes mainly declined. This week, due to the new Indian tender, urea prices stopped falling and rebounded. Some device overhauls led to the daily output dropping to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender of 2 million tons with a September 2nd bid - closing date and an end - of - October shipping date, along with relaxed export policies, boosted the domestic market sentiment. However, overall demand was declining, with high inventories and cautious traders. In the short term, domestic demand was limited, but the Indian tender and low domestic prices were expected to support the market and lead to a short - term bottoming [4]. - Trading strategies include going long on the single - side when prices are low, observing for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment was stable, with ex - factory quotes in some areas stabilizing or adjusting. Shandong's quotes rebounded, Henan's remained stable, and prices in the delivery area and its surrounding areas were expected to decline. The overall supply was abundant, and demand was weak, but the Indian tender had a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250807 - 0813), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 85.51%, up 1.85% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 75.77%, down 0.76% month - on - month. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.10%, down 1.12% month - on - month [5]. - **Demand**: In the 33rd week of 2025 (20250808 - 0814), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points from the previous week. In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250801 - 0807), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, up 2.82 percentage points month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizer's urea demand was 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points month - on - month. As of August 13, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.29 days, down 0.24 days from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory**: On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month - on - month, with a decline rate of 3.93% [5]. - **Valuation**: The prices of Jincheng anthracite lump coal and Yulin pulverized coal rebounded, while the urea spot price declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 110 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 210 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 360 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, with a basis of - 80 yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 17 yuan/ton [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Urea Futures Main Contract Trend**: From August 11th to 14th, the main contract UR2601 of urea futures oscillated downward, with an interval decline of 0.80% and an interval amplitude of 2.72% [7]. - **Urea Futures Basis Situation**: On August 13th, the basis of small - particle urea in Shandong was 4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton compared to last Wednesday, and it was at a low level compared to the past five years [11]. 3.2 Urea Fundamental Analysis Supply - side - **Urea Production Enterprise Operating Rate**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years [16]. - **Urea Plant Weekly Maintenance Loss**: This week, the weekly maintenance loss of urea plants was 19.19 tons, a 4.48% decrease compared to the previous period and a 21.83% decrease year - on - year [18]. - **Weekly Output of Coal - based and Gas - based Urea**: Currently, the weekly output of coal - based urea is 1.1 million tons, a 2.8% increase compared to the previous period; the weekly output of urea produced from pipeline fertilizer - using gas is 290,000 tons, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period. The supply pattern remains loose [20]. Demand - side - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise Operating Rate**: According to Zhuochuang Information, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024 [23]. - **Compound Fertilizer Enterprise In - plant Inventory**: The in - plant inventory of compound fertilizers of 32 chemical enterprises in China is 826,500 tons, a 3.26% increase compared to the previous period and a 12.68% increase compared to 2024 [25]. - **Melamine Operating Rate**: The average operating load rate of Chinese melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [29]. Inventory - side - **Urea Enterprise Inventory and Port Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period [32]. Cost - side - **Synthetic Ammonia Price**: On August 14th, the daily low - end market price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan/ton increase compared to August 7th [38]. - **Coal Market Operation**: With the restorative rebound of the low - end price of anthracite in some regions, the cost support of coal - based urea plants has strengthened. Currently, the aggregated price of Yangquan anthracite fine coal is 770 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the aggregated price of Jincheng anthracite washed small coal is 900 yuan/ton, also remaining unchanged compared to the previous period [40]. Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Date | Beginning Inventory (kt) | Production (kt) | Total Supply (kt) | Consumption (kt) | Export (kt) | Total Demand (kt) | Ending Inventory (kt) | Supply - Demand Ratio (%) | Price (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 10E | 1437 | 6200 | 7638 | 5200 | 500 | 5700 | 603 | 134 | 1800 | | 2025 - 09E | 1037 | 6300 | 7338 | 4900 | 1000 | 5900 | 1437 | 124.37 | 1750 | | 2025 - 08E | 757 | 6270 | 7028 | 4570 | 1100 | 5670 | 1037 | 123.95 | 1830 | | 2025 July | 931 | 6093 | 7025 | 5890 | 700 | 6590 | 1757 | 106.6 | 1817.22 | | 2025 June | 840 | 6146 | 6986.03 | 6159 | 66.24 | 6225.24 | 931 | 112.22 | 1838.8 | | 2025 May | 865 | 6366 | 7231.22 | 6391.2 | 2.44 | 6393.64 | 840 | 113.1 | 1912.94 | | 2025 April | 805 | 6004 | 6809.42 | 5944.4 | 2.25 | 5946.65 | 865 | 114.51 | 1894.95 | | 2025 March | 1266 | 6219 | 7485.04 | 6680 | 2.3 | 6682.3 | 805 | 112.01 | 1867.78 | | 2025 February | 1499 | 5551 | 7050.34 | 5784.3 | 1.36 | 5785.66 | 1266 | 121.86 | 1776.73 | | 2025 January | 1378 | 5719 | 7097.25 | 5598.2 | 2.65 | 5600.85 | 1499 | 126.72 | 1695.43 | | 2024 December | 1191 | 5463 | 6654.24 | 5275.7 | 2.27 | 5277.97 | 1378 | 126.08 | 1819.64 | | 2024 November | 1135 | 5421 | 6556.1 | 5365 | 2.22 | 5367.22 | 1191 | 122.15 | 1868.4 | | 2024 October | 903 | 5841 | 6744.08 | 5600 | 3.5 | 5612.5 | 1135 | 120.16 | 1900.26 | [44] 3.3 Future Outlook - **Supply - side**: This week, the operating rate of urea production enterprises was 84.45%, a 1.73% increase compared to the previous period and a 7.38% increase year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past 5 years. Driven by the continuous efforts of the supply - guarantee policy and the release of the efficiency of previous technological improvements, it has become normal for production enterprises to operate at high loads, and the overall supply of urea will continue the loose pattern. In the short term, the high - supply situation is unlikely to change significantly [49]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, it is the traditional off - season for demand. The downstream market generally has a wait - and - see attitude, mainly following up with rigid demand, and has no strong willingness for large - scale centralized procurement. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 36.24%, a 1.63% decrease compared to the previous period and a 4.5% increase compared to 2024; the panel industry is still in the traditional off - season, and the average operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 49.21%, a 8.42% decrease compared to the previous period and a 24.27% decrease year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory - side**: The overall inventory pressure still exists. Urea enterprise inventory is 860,000 tons, a 9.83% increase compared to the previous period; with the orderly collection of goods at the port, the current port inventory is 790,000 tons, a 51.92% increase compared to the previous period. As the preparation and production of autumn fertilizers gradually start, it is expected that the enterprise inventory will first increase and then decrease [49]. - **Cost - side**: The supply of the anthracite market may not change much, and the price will fluctuate with the increase or decrease of demand and market sentiment. The natural gas price will be range - bound [49]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In general, the current core contradiction in the urea market lies in the continuous game between high supply and seasonal weak demand, and the short - term price may continue the weak oscillatory trend. It is recommended that investors cautiously handle the current market environment with a weak oscillatory mindset [49].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The urea market is in a state of obvious oversupply in China, with high daily production and operating rates, and weak domestic demand. Although the international price is strong and export profits are increasing, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The urea futures market is expected to be volatile today [4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment subsided, the urea market returned to fundamentals. Domestic supply has high daily production and operating rates, and inventories are accumulating again. Industrial demand for compound fertilizers and melamine is declining, and agricultural demand is also expected to fall. The overall supply of domestic urea exceeds demand, while export profits are strengthening, but the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized. The spot price of the delivery product is 1810 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 63, with a premium - discount ratio of 4.5%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is volatile. The international urea price is strong, the export policy has not been unexpectedly liberalized, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious. It is expected that the UR will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea industry has seen continuous growth in capacity, production, and consumption. The capacity growth rate has fluctuated, reaching a high of 15.5% in 2020. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023. The consumption growth rate also fluctuated, with a peak of 17.9% in 2020. In 2025E, the capacity is expected to reach 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10]. Spot and Futures Quotes - **Spot**: The price of the spot delivery product and Shandong and Henan spot prices are all 1810, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2748 [6]. - **Futures**: The 01 contract price is 1747 (-9), the UR05 contract price is 1788 (-8), and the UR09 contract price is 1726 (-1). The basis is 63 (+9) [6]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 145.9 million tons (-1.8 million tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 101.9 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 44.0 million tons [6].

【冠通研究】 库存增加，盘面震荡整理 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 13 日 现货方面：市场成交氛围暂未好转，上游工厂开启降价吸单，目前来看效 果一般。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1680-1700 元/吨，个别工厂成交价略低。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 今日低开高走尾盘收平。昨天低价成交顺畅，上游工厂待发充足，今日现 货报价低位反弹。基本面来看，夏季尿素工厂装置多发临检，日产目前位于 19 万吨左右上下波动，环比减弱但同比依然偏高。停车与复产并行，产量窄幅波 动。需求端，工业需求有韧性，但后续受阅兵影响，京津冀地区尿素下游三聚 氰胺陆续停产，复合肥工厂开工也将逐步开始减量，目前厂内成品库存不断攀 升，由于市场普遍看空且复合肥工厂无大幅囤货备库的准备，对原料尿素的跟 进适量补库为主，后续集中拿货的概率低。整体内需不足，市场行情不温不 火。库存端，本期厂内库存累库，主要系农需结束后，下游工厂拿货积极性不 佳。整体来说，出口短暂未给尿素企业带来更大的增量，受内需拖累，市场依 然处于供需宽松的格局，但下跌空间较小，另外本月后续将 ...

【冠通研究】 内需拉动弱 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 12 日 【策略分析】 今日高开高走，震荡偏强。市场成交氛围暂未好转，上游工厂开启降价吸 单，目前来看效果一般。基本面来看，尿素工厂装置多发临检，日产目前位于 19 万吨左右上下波动，环比减弱但同比依然偏高。本周预计一家企业复产，短 期产量有回升预期。需求端，后续受阅兵影响，京津冀地区尿素下游三聚氰胺 陆续停产，复合肥工厂开工也将开始减量，目前厂内成品库存不断攀升，由于 市场普遍看空且复合肥工厂无大幅囤货备库的准备，对原料尿素的跟进以逢低 拿货，适量补库为主，目前来看后续集中拿货的概率低。库存端，本期厂内库 存小幅去化，主要系供应端收窄而下游逢低拿货情绪的影响，预计短期内依然 以去化为主。整体来说，下游虽暂无集中跟进购买尿素的意愿，但需求有韧 性。出口叠加后续复合肥工厂拿货的支撑，尿素下行空间不足，本月受阅兵影 响，下游需求短期将走弱，盘面弱势整理为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1722 元/吨高开高走，日内震荡偏强，最终 收于 1727 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅+0.52%，持仓量 91810 手（-17964 手）。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-8-12 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 | 数 | 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1810 | 1 0 | 01合约 | 1751 | 0 | 仓 单 | 3623 | | 0 | | 山东现货 | ...

中原期货研究咨询部 【中原化工】 下游提货积极性不足，秋季肥库存压力较大 ——尿素周报2025.08.11 作者：申文 执业证书编号：F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0022654 shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 0371-58620081 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——下游提货积极性不足，秋季肥库存压力较大 | 品种 1. 供应：8月份复产装置较多，供应预计将有所回升； | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2. 需求：秋季肥开工提升，成品库存压力仍较大； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存环比小幅下降； | | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格涨势放缓，尿素利润环比小幅下降； | | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | 5. 基差与价差：9-1价差偏强震荡运行，09基差变化有限。 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | （下行风险）， | | | | 注 1680-1700 元 / | 吨 宏观利好、出口 | | | 本周国内尿素现货市场价格偏弱运行，当前日产将维持19-20万吨附近波动，8月份前期检 | ...