来源：智通财经 智通财经记者 | 邹文榕 8月20日，香港交易所（00388.HK）发布中期业绩，2025年上半年收入及其他收益为140.76亿港元，同 比增长33%：股东应占溢利为85.19亿港元，同比增长39%。 香港交易所董事会宣布派发每股6港元的中期股息，同比增长36%，总派息76.08亿港元，相当于可供股 东分配利润的90%。 8月20日的业绩发布会现场上，港交所主席唐家成表示，"在市场利好气氛、投资者对非美元资产的兴趣 增加以及国际和内地投资者的参与愈趋活跃等因素带动下，2025年上半年（香港）证券市场平均每日成 交金额为2402亿港元，按年升118%；期货及期权产品的平均每日成交合约张数超过170万张，按年上升 11%；期内香港ETF市场持续显著增长，平均每日成交金额达338亿港元，较上年同期升184%。" 港交所行政总裁陈翊庭表示："香港交易所2025上半年表现非常强劲，录得有史以来最佳的半年业绩。 这一业绩超过了我们之前的历史最佳，也即2024年的下半年。" 图源：香港交易所 5月，宁德时代（03750.HK）在香港上市，集资410亿元，成为2021年2月以来香港最大规模的新股，也 是202 ...

Group 1: Company Leadership and Governance - The board of directors of Zhongju Gaoxin has undergone a complete renewal, with Li Ruxiong appointed as the new chairman, indicating a shift towards a mixed governance model of state-owned shareholders and market-oriented executives [1][2] - The introduction of new professional managers and independent directors aims to enhance the company's governance structure and operational efficiency, aligning with national strategies for a high-level socialist market economy [4][5] Group 2: Strategic Transformation and Market Position - Zhongju Gaoxin is at a critical juncture for strategic transformation, with the new leadership expected to stabilize operations centered around its core product, Chubang soy sauce, and restore growth potential [3] - The company is responding to intense competition in the seasoning industry, which has seen a significant reduction in the number of related enterprises, indicating a shift towards a more competitive landscape [7] Group 3: Financial Performance and Growth Strategies - In 2024, Zhongju Gaoxin reported a revenue of 5.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.39%, with over 90% of revenue coming from its seasoning business [7] - The company plans to leverage consumer research and expert collaboration to improve existing products and explore new growth avenues through partnerships, joint ventures, and acquisitions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that addressing the consumption shortfall is essential for economic growth, highlighting the need for structural changes rather than mere consumption stimulation [2][3]. Economic Data Summary - July CPI showed a year-on-year growth of 0%, down from 0.1%, while core CPI rose by 0.8%, marking a continuous expansion for three months [2]. - July PPI remained at -3.6%, indicating a stabilization in price levels, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in CPI reflecting marginal economic improvement [2]. Consumption and Investment Dynamics - The article argues that consumption-driven economic growth is less effective than investment-driven growth, as consumer preferences and expectations are not easily altered by stimulus policies [3]. - It points out that consumer behavior is influenced by income stability and future expectations, which are not addressed by simple consumption incentives [3]. Policy Recommendations - To enhance economic stability, the article suggests reforming social security and healthcare systems to alleviate public concerns about future uncertainties [4]. - It advocates for tax reforms related to social security contributions and the development of personal pension systems to improve disposable income and consumption patterns [4]. Market and Economic Environment - The article calls for market-oriented reforms to create a unified national market, allowing for greater freedom and flexibility for market participants [5]. - It posits that a supportive economic governance framework, focused on public services, will foster a competitive environment that encourages innovation and collective economic growth [5].

补齐消费短板是当前经济不可或缺的助推力。 9日国家统计局公布7月份物价水平数据：7月CPI同比增长0，前值为0.1%，其中核心CPI同比上涨 0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大；7月PPI同比增长-3.6%，前值-3.6%。 最新的CPI尽管同比有所回落，但受学生假期效应等影响，环比出现0.4%的增长，经济延续边际改善态 势。PPI同比与上月持平，环比降幅有所缓和，反映最近反内卷行动成效显现。 社保体系查漏补缺式的改革，将切切实实改变经济社会的需求弹性，改变人们可支配收入的心理账户分 布结构，推动人们对消费和储蓄相对价格的改变。这也将发挥消费的乘数效应，且消费偏好将丰富市场 信息，使企业家能方便捕捉到市场需求结构，进行创新投资。 当前还需积极推动市场化改革，完善全国统一大市场建设，真正向市场放手和放权。创新发展是一种集 体无意识行为相互博弈出现的类似生物学的涌现现象，这种涌现是通过市场主体在自由市场的相互交流 和纠缠产生的。通过适度的放手和放权，给市场更多自由空间，投资收益率才能得到边际改善，更多的 经济福祉通过个人可支配收入带动下的消费进入经济循环，经济才能真正产生内稳性，向上生长。 这些将极大改变经济的需求弹性 ...

最新宏观经济数据再次警示，单纯地通过刺激消费的政策，并不能真正让消费者基于偏好满足而进行消 费，因此也就难以真正有效改变消费者偏好和需求弹性，政策刺激的结果是把未来的消费前移，但并没 增加最终消费需求总量，最终也容易加大未来的有效需求不足压力。 这是因为，若市场主体收入结构、对未来收入和工作的安全感等没变化，抑或容易产生不稳定担忧等， 引导需求弹性变化的消费者心理账户结构不仅没有产生对即期消费的偏好，而且甚至可能会产生明显的 损失规避效应。 为此，巩固经济企稳向好趋势，不是回归到投资驱动的传统轨道，也不是继续刺激消费，而是从根本上 改变人们对消费与储蓄的相对价格，从而改变人们的需求弹性，真正营造一个消费友好型制度环境。 巩固经济企稳向好趋势，不是回归到投资驱动的传统轨道，也不是继续刺激消费，而是从根本上改变人 们对消费与储蓄的相对价格，从而改变人们的需求弹性，真正营造一个消费友好型制度环境。 补齐消费短板是当前经济不可或缺的助推力。 9日国家统计局公布7月份物价水平数据：7月CPI同比增长0，前值为0.1%，其中核心CPI同比上涨 0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大；7月PPI同比增长-3.6%，前值-3.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - A new round of "anti-involution" actions is being prepared, viewed by the market as "Supply-Side Reform 2.0" due to overcapacity issues and government intervention being a key driver for this initiative [1][3] Group 1: Market and Government Relationship - The core of economic system reform is to manage the relationship between government and market, emphasizing reduced direct government resource allocation and maximizing efficiency through market rules [5] - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry has faced severe overcapacity and chaotic competition, with significant government support leading to excessive investments in this sector [5][6] - The government has previously recognized the need for market mechanisms to drive structural adjustments and eliminate inferior enterprises in the PV industry [7] Group 2: Market Exit Mechanism - The fundamental issue causing the current "anti-involution" is overcapacity, with a shift in consumer demand from goods to services, leading to an imbalance in investment and consumption [8] - The competitive market environment will naturally lead to larger enterprises absorbing smaller ones and unprofitable firms exiting the market through market-driven mechanisms such as price reductions and mergers [8][9] - The market dynamics suggest that if high-cost firms do not exit, it can lead to widespread losses across the industry, highlighting the need for a structured exit mechanism [10][11] Group 3: Policy Implications - The current "anti-involution" initiative is not merely about eliminating outdated capacity but represents a comprehensive market-oriented reform across all investment and financing stages [12] - The focus is on ensuring that market prices guide resource allocation, which is essential for reducing overcapacity and preventing involution [12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观经济研究*专题报告 2025 年 07 月 22 日 宏观经济研究 反内卷与市场化改革 伴随着房地产和债务周期深度调整，以及国内需求向服务业的转型升级，投 资和消费存在失衡现象，当前产能过剩的产业包括光伏、新能源、汽车等行 业。新一轮的"反内卷"行动正在紧锣密鼓准备中，市场将这一轮政策看作 是"供给侧改革 2.0"。这不仅因为内卷的原因之一仍是产能过剩，更是因为 政府出面是反内卷能够推动的重要原因。 问题出现的根本原因之一是产能过剩。在 2012 年服务业增加值占比首次超过 制造业之后，中国经济逐渐迈向消费型社会，居民消费需求从商品逐渐转向 服务。但从投资-消费的结构来看，近十年固定资产投资增速依然较快，造成 供给相对过剩，而需求明显不足；商品相对过剩，而服务相对不足。 其次，重点解决的问题是如何退出。市场经济的主要特征就是规模效应，规 模越大成本越低，竞争力越强，在未来的市场竞争中就可以通过降价战胜对 手。这也是过去这些企业大力投资扩产增量的根本原因，在自负盈亏主导的 经济体里这属于正常的市场行为。那么竞争加剧之后，必然会有大企业吞并 小企业，亏损企业退出市场的过程。这种竞争过程必然会 ...

Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Lin Feng as the proposed chairman of Beibu Gulf Property Insurance Co., Ltd. marks a significant leadership change after a 9-month vacancy, reflecting ongoing market reforms and challenges within the company [1][4][6]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Lin Feng has been appointed as the proposed chairman and party secretary of Beibu Gulf Insurance, following the resignation of former chairman Qin Min, who left the position in October of the previous year [4][5]. - Lin Feng, born in 1974, has a background primarily in the financial sector, which contrasts with the previous chairman's experience in energy and materials, suggesting a potential shift towards more innovative management practices [5][6]. Group 2: Company Performance - Beibu Gulf Insurance has undergone significant market-oriented reforms since 2021, focusing on national recruitment for key management positions and enhancing business quality [1][6]. - The company reported a premium income of 3.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 46 million yuan in 2023, showing a slight decline from the previous year's premium income of 3.84 billion yuan and net profit of 61 million yuan [6]. Group 3: Shareholding Issues - The company faces challenges related to share pledges, with the largest shareholder, Guangdong Hongfa Investment Group, having 20% of its shares pledged, and the fifth largest shareholder, Guangxi Ping Aluminum Group, having 6% pledged [6][7]. - High levels of share pledges can restrict the ability of major shareholders to exercise voting rights, potentially impacting corporate governance and decision-making [6][7]. - There are ongoing concerns regarding the stability of the company's share structure, as a significant portion of shares is currently in a "pending" state due to unresolved ownership issues [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a global leader in wind power, focusing on renewable energy development and has a strong strategic advantage due to its long-standing expertise and technological foundation [16][22]. - The company plans to continue its capital expenditure growth, with a 42% increase in 2024, primarily directed towards renewable energy projects [36]. - The company has successfully completed the divestiture of its thermal power assets, allowing it to concentrate on its core renewable energy business [39]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue is projected to decline slightly in 2024 but is expected to recover with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.51% from 2020 to 2024, reaching 37.07 billion yuan [24]. - The net profit is forecasted to grow from 6.63 billion yuan in 2024 to 7.95 billion yuan by 2027, with a CAGR of 6.26% [24]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to stabilize around 9.2% from 2025 to 2027 [24]. Business Layout - The company has a total installed capacity of 41.14 million kilowatts, with wind power accounting for 30.41 million kilowatts, representing 73.91% of its total capacity [39]. - The company has a strategic focus on high-value regions and has secured over 14 GW of new development indicators for 2024 [3]. - The company is enhancing its operational efficiency through self-developed monitoring systems and is actively pursuing upgrades in its wind power projects [8]. Industry Trends - The renewable energy sector is transitioning from explosive growth to a high-quality development phase, driven by technological innovation and market reforms [2]. - The industry is expected to face short-term challenges such as declining electricity prices and consumption bottlenecks, but long-term growth will be supported by optimal market allocation and infrastructure improvements [2]. - The report highlights the importance of integrating renewable energy into the power grid and the ongoing reforms in the electricity market [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20% to 30% [5] - The company's strong performance is driven by both domestic and international markets, with significant growth in its earthmoving machinery business due to favorable equipment renewal policies and recovering industry demand [5] - The management transition has not affected the company's market-oriented reforms, and ongoing incentive mechanisms are expected to drive long-term development [6] - The company's overseas business has shown high-quality growth, with revenue from international operations reaching 13.76 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.05% [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 34.86 billion, 39.66 billion, and 44.45 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.01, 1.43, and 1.94 yuan [9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 1.18 billion to 1.28 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a growth rate of 20% to 30% compared to the same period in 2024 [5] - The expected net profit for 2025 is 2.04 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 53.7% [11] Market Dynamics - The domestic market benefits from equipment renewal policies and recovering demand, while the international market is supported by a comprehensive globalization strategy [5][7] - The company's overseas revenue accounted for 45.77% of total revenue in 2024, indicating a significant contribution from international operations [7] Management and Strategy - The management transition is expected to maintain the company's strategic direction and market-oriented operations, with a focus on enhancing profitability and shareholder returns [6] - The company has implemented a dual-track incentive mechanism combining market-based compensation and equity incentives to boost core team performance [6] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued revenue growth, with projected revenues increasing from 34.86 billion yuan in 2025 to 44.45 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - The expected EPS growth reflects the company's strong operational performance and market positioning [9]